LEGISLATIVE IN FRANCE

TOWARDS A DUEL BETWEEN TOGETHER! BY MACRON

AND THE NUPES OF MELANCHON

According to the latest Elabe poll for L'Express and BFMTV, in partnership with SFR, LR would collect only 12.5% ​​of the votes at the national level, against 25% and 24.5% for the alliance of left-wing parties and the confederation bringing together LREM, the MoDem and Horizons. Are we moving towards a neck and neck between the macronists and the leader of the Insoumis, relegating the other formations to the shadows, including the National Rally ?

Will the LRs resist ?

After the berezina of PS deputies in 2017, will we attend the Saint-Barthélemy of outgoing LR deputies, wonders a journalist.

The Republicans "should indeed be the big losers" of these legislative elections. The party chose independence: a perilous line in view of the 4.8% obtained by Valérie Pécresse. Some of the 101 outgoing elected officials joined the Head of State and about fifteen candidates will benefit from special treatment by not having to face a representative of the majority. The others rely on their territorial roots. “Some of the incumbents were elected in semi-rural constituencies and won in 2017 against the triumphant Macronie, so there is no reason to be pessimistic”, indicates MEP Brice Hortefeux. LR will in any case not give voting instructions on the evening of the first round of the legislative elections if its candidates are not qualified, in the case of

An unfavorable voting method for the National Rally

Marine Le Pen, meanwhile, has somehow thrown in the towel despite her second place in the first round and her 13.2 million votes on April 24, only reappearing in recent days. It is that the ambitions of the RN, which refused to ally itself with Reconquest, the party of Éric Zemmour (finally candidate in Saint-Tropez), prove to be reasonable insofar as the voting method is very unfavorable to it. Self-proclaimed "candidate of truth", Marine Le Pen also repeats that the logic of the institutions wants the President of the Republic to obtain a majority. While she obtained 41.4% of the votes in the second round and more than 55% in 87 constituencies, she set herself the objective of obtaining at least fifteen elected members, which would allow her party to form a group to the Assembly.

Indeed, since the establishment of the five-year term in 2002 and the reversal of the electoral calendar - the presidential election is held just before the legislative elections and not the reverse, in order to give the President of the Republic a coherent majority in the Assembly national - the winner of the race for the Elysée has for the moment systematically obtained a majority to carry out his program. Enough to make the legislative elections ratifying the result of the presidential election.

Thus, in 2002, in the wake of his re-election against Jean-Marie Le Pen, Jacques Chirac regained a majority in the National Assembly. In 2007, Nicolas Sarkozy, elected against Ségolène Royal, also won the legislative elections. In 2012, François Hollande's victory was accompanied by a pink wave at the Palais Bourbon. As for Emmanuel Macron in 2017, he won the legislative elections with 308 elected deputies.

But is this mechanism about to break down for the first time? This is what Jean-Luc Mélenchon wants to believe, cleverly making this meeting the “third round” of the presidential election, he who now sees himself as Prime Minister. So what are the polls saying? On this point, the polls give the presidential majority and the Nupes neck and neck. Last Friday, the Cluster 17 institute placed Nupes in the lead (31%) ahead of Together! (27%), the RN (19%) and LR (10%). But according to an Ifop survey of May 31, it's Together! which would come out on top with 27% ahead of Nupes (25%) and the RN (21%). According to this poll, which confirms the trend of that published yesterday by the Harris Institute (26% and 24%), the marchers and their allies would thus obtain between 275 and 310 seats, against 170 to 205 for the Nupes and 20 to 50 for the RN.Emmanuel Macron could therefore not have it.

Towards a duel between the Nupes de Mélanchon and Together! by Macron

In this last straight line, the polls confirm this duel between the macronists united under the banner Together! and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, now at the head of Nupes, the New Popular Ecologist and Social Alliance which brings together LFI, EELV, the PS and the PC.

Because we must now reckon with this purely “electoralist” union that is the Nupes.

The deputies of the Nupes (New Popular Ecological and Social Union) could well find themselves in the majority in the hemicycle. The ex-socialist, who is not standing, has already achieved a feat by reconciling (more or less) four political parties: LFI, EELV, PC 4 and PS. “We are in the process of writing a political history of France,” he assured. Released in the lead on April 10 in 106 constituencies and in the majority in 43, he considers that this is "a good starting point". The projections give its candidates present in the second round in more than 300 constituencies. “The fact that the left has united and that it can thus claim to have many elected members, or even why not, a relative or absolute majority in the National Assembly,

What majority for Emmanuel Macron ?

In 2017, the head of state had managed to build a solid majority with 350 elected officials, including 308 LREM. He wants to repeat the feat. In the history of the Fifth Republic, haven't the presidents always won the legislative elections organized in the wake of their election? After endless negotiations, an agreement has also been reached between the partners who will leave under the Together banner. The majority party has reserved 400 constituencies and granted a hundred to its MoDem allies and 58 to Horizons, the party of Édouard Philippe. While more than a third of the 2017 candidates came from civil society and had no mandate, the 505 candidates already invested are moreover for the most part experienced,

But in the face of the polls and the offensive campaign of Mélenchon, Emmanuel Macron beats the ground again. After having waved the brown cloth during the presidential election, the head of state is waving the red cloth, multiplying the attacks against Jean-Luc Mélenchon, designated as the number one opponent. After two trips last week, to Cherbourg on health, then to Marseille on education, it is this Thursday, June 9, 2022, tomorrow, in the Tarn, in Gaillac, to discuss everyday safety. A visit that comes as the police are once again shamefully singled out and in the crosshairs of… Nupes. On Saturday, in Paris, the passenger of a vehicle whose driver on semi-freedom, without a license and under the influence of narcotics, refused to comply with a control, was killed by police fire. " I do not see how this puzzle of circumstances that is the Nupes can win," said Richard Ferrand, the boss of the National Assembly, confident.

The arbiter of the ballot: the strong abstention expected

After reaching a record in 2017, abstention will again be the arbiter of the ballot, on June 12 and 19. In fact, to remain in the second round, the candidates must achieve at least 12.5% ​​of the registrants. Which, in the perspective of a strong abstention, makes projections particularly difficult. According to the latest Ipsos Sopra-Steria survey for Cevipof, the Jean Jaurès Foundation and Le Monde published on Wednesday June 8, abstention could indeed reach between 52% and 56% on Sunday, with an average point of 54%.

A high abstention which will not be without consequence on the ballot since it will practically eliminate any possibility of a triangular and will therefore probably impose duels in all the constituencies... In 2017, already, there had been only one triangular , against 34 in 2012. “With this situation, we will only have duels in the second round”, also bets Gérard Grunberg, emeritus research director at the CNRS and director of the Telos site.

A low turnout, by promoting duels, could benefit the outgoing majority grouped under the Together! banner, more likely to benefit from the “useful vote”, that is to say the votes of voters wishing to block another candidate. "We can estimate that the majority candidate will arrive in the first two, with a few exceptions", predicts Jean Petaux, referring to the "fairly strong" expected mobilization of Emmanuel's electorate. In addition, the economic program of the Nupes being radical - Retirement at 60, increase in the minimum wage to 1,400 euros, blocking of the prices of basic necessities and a cookie-cutter formula like "the police kill", some could lean towards the macronists.

Anyway nothing is played in this duel between the Nupes and Together...