AN UNPRECEDENTED CYBER ATTACK IN CRIMEA

FROM UKRAINE

While Kiev is engaged in a difficult counter-offensive and the war is bogged down, the Ukrainian president continued his diplomatic offensive in Washington on Thursday, before arriving in Canada in the evening.

Ukraine claims 'successful strike' on Russian fleet HQ in Crimea

The Ukrainian army claimed Friday a "successful strike" on the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol in annexed Crimea, an attack which was already reported by Moscow a few hours earlier.

“The Defense Forces of Ukraine carried out a successful strike against the headquarters of the command of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the temporarily occupied city of Sevastopol,” the army's strategic communications directorate said on Telegram Ukrainian.

An “unprecedented” cyberattack in Crimea

Crimea is hit by an “unprecedented” cyberattack, announces a Russian official, a few hours after a Ukrainian strike which damaged the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in this Ukrainian peninsula annexed by Moscow. “Unprecedented cyberattack against internet service providers in Crimea. We are in the process of repairing the Internet outages on the peninsula,” said Oleg Krioutchko, an advisor to the leader installed by Russia on the peninsula, on Telegram.

At least one dead in the strike on Sevastopol

At least one Russian serviceman was killed in a Ukrainian missile strike that hit the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea fleet, located in Sevastopol, in Ukrainian Crimea. “Five missiles were shot down by the anti-aircraft defense. The historic Black Sea Fleet headquarters building was damaged in the attack. According to available information, a serviceman was killed,” the Russian Defense Ministry said on Telegram.

The EU has just paid 1.5 billion euros to Ukraine

“Today we have disbursed an additional 1.5 billion euros to Ukraine.

WAR IN UKRAINE

THE MURDERER BOMBING OF A MARKET 

ATTRIBUTABLE TO A UKRAINIAN ERROR ?

This bombing hit a crowded market in this city located in eastern Ukraine, arousing the anger of President Volodimir Zelensky, who condemned a Russian attack on a “peaceful” city.

Among the victims was a child, and around thirty other people were hospitalized.
The New York Times calls the incident a “tragic mistake.”

According to the daily, the elements analyzed, such as missile fragments, satellite images, testimonies and messages on social networks, support the thesis according to which the bombing was the result of a faulty shot from a Ukrainian aerial missile, launched by a Bouk defense system.

No comments could be obtained from either Ukraine or Russia.

HOW TO MANAGE THE MIGRATION SURGE

IN LAMPEDUSA ?

Almost double compared to 2022

The influx is considerable, with around 6,000 to 7,000 people arriving on the island in the space of twenty-four hours, spread across 120 different boats, according to various sources. The capacity of the island's reception center, established at 400 places, is largely exceeded. In fact, tensions have broken out. As hundreds of migrants wanted to leave the island's docks, police had to charge them in a law enforcement operation.

The situation has already caused one death: on the night of Tuesday September 12 to Wednesday September 13, a 5-month-old child died after falling into the water.
The Italian authorities aim above all to reduce overpopulation on the island by gradually transferring migrants to other Italian cities. Since the start of the year, nearly 118,500 migrants have arrived by boat in Italy, almost double compared to the same period in 2022.

Tension at European level

Once again, the situation on migration routes is creating tension at the European level, while the reform of the pact on immigration and asylum is still on the negotiating table in Brussels. On Wednesday September 13, Germany decided to suspend, until further notice, the voluntary reception of asylum seekers (the “voluntary European solidarity mechanism”) who come from Italy.

This decision, justified by the current strong migratory pressure and the persistent suspensions of "Dublin" transfers by certain Member States, also takes a political turn, as the far right gains ground in Germany in view of the next European elections in 2024 .

In France the subject is also on the agenda this fall. While the immigration bill should be presented to the French Parliament in the coming weeks, according to an Odoxa Backbone consulting study for Le Figaro, 74% of French people have a “poor opinion” of the Government's action on the subject. Concerning the actions to be applied on immigration, the French mainly favor more repressive measures.

Thus, 82% of respondents say they are in favor of "the registration of foreigners threatened with expulsion in the file of wanted persons", in view of allowing "Parliament to decide each year on immigration quotas" (81%), and “set a maximum deadline for the administration to grant asylum seekers an appointment at the prefecture” (81%).

“No Way” device ?

From the island of Lampedusa in Italy, Marion Maréchal strongly criticized migration policy, describing it as "unreasonable", and pleaded in favor of a responsible approach, citing the Australian model of the famous "No Way".
“No Way” is a campaign launched in 2014 by the Australian government with the aim of combating illegal immigration and deterring migrants from reaching Australian shores.

Posters and television spots were broadcast in the migrants' countries of origin such as Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and Sri Lanka. The signs hammered home the clear message: "No question. You will not make Australia your home."

The vice-president of Reconquest, also head of the party's list in the next European elections, expressed her support for Italy, which she considers abandoned by the European Union in the face of a massive influx of migrants, thus creating a situation of migratory submergence.

"HE’S THE ONLY ONE WHO HAS BALLS" !

ACCORDING TO DIMITRI MEDVEDEV 

ABOUT ELON MUSK THE UNDERSTANDINGS

 OF INTERRUPTIONS STARLING IN UKRAINE ?

In an authorized biography of the billionaire, written by Walter Isaacson, it is explained that Elon Musk personally thwarted an attempted Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian naval fleet in Crimea. He allegedly ordered SpaceX engineers to cut the Starlink signal, widely used by the Ukrainians for their communications, in order to jam drones carrying explosives aimed at their Russian targets. Although the precise date of this operation is not specified, it took place in 2022.

“He’s the only one who has balls”

"If what [journalist Walter] Isaacson wrote in his book is true, then it seems that Musk is the last sane mind in North America. Or, at the very least, in 'genderless' America, that's it. is the only one who has balls", writes on X Dmitri Medvedev.

According to the biographer, Elon Musk feared that Russia would respond to the drone attack with a nuclear response.

The billionaire had already taken a position on the conflict in Ukraine since its outbreak in February 2022, in particular by offering his help to the Ukrainians thanks to his Starlink satellite system. In October of the same year, he caused controversy by presenting a peace plan via his social networks. His plan was to reorganize the annexation referendums of Ukraine's eastern regions under UN supervision, while providing for Ukraine's neutrality and the permanent attachment of Crimea to Russia. This plan was widely criticized by kyiv. “My very diplomatic response is to show you off,” replied the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany Andriï Melnyk, for example.

"The cost for SpaceX (Starlink's parent company) to deploy Starlink in Ukraine is around $80 million, so far. Our support for Russia is $0. Obviously, we are pro-Ukraine." the billionaire was defended the next day

Curious interruptions

From the first months of the conflict, Starlink had in fact offered Ukraine hundreds of satellite receivers which according to Numerama, contrary to what Elon Musk claimed, these terminals had been financed by public funds and private donations. "Initially , Musk showed limitless support for the Ukrainian cause,” recalled the New Yorker journalist in his investigation.

Once access to the network on Ukrainian territory was opened willingly by Elon Musk, these antennas constituted a solid guarantee that the country's access to the Internet, for both its civilians and its military, could not be easily cut off. or jammed by Russia.

But things ended up getting complicated in the fall of 2022 with network outages observed in certain combat zones. Starlink had experienced service interruptions near the front lines between the Ukrainian army and Russian forces. Affected regions include Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk, all of which have strategic importance in the conflict.

These regions were the scene of contested referendums, organized under the aegis of Russia, claiming their attachment to this country. In this context, communications technologies, including Starlink, have acquired crucial importance for Ukrainian military forces.

Economic and political motivations

Ukrainian soldiers quickly indicated that these were geographic restrictions imposed by SpaceX on Starlink. The billionaire felt less and less comfortable with the military use being made of his satellite constellation.

In response, Musk almost admitted to these restrictions, indicating that he did not want to get too involved in Ukraine's war effort. The billionaire also highlights the fact that Starlink was “losing money” by offering its services to Ukrainian soldiers for free.

The situation was finally resolved by the signing of an agreement with the American Department of Defense. It took the intervention of the Pentagon and the signing of a $400 million contract to ensure that Elon Musk would no longer cut off access to Ukraine.

Was the financial issue the only one to falter Musk's initial full support for Ukraine?

It seems that the billionaire of South African origin was able to speak directly with Vladimir Putin, to whom he nevertheless proposed a single combat.

A little after this supposed discussion, the boss publicly proposed a "peace plan" very close to what the Kremlin or Donald Trump's line could be: that Ukraine officially agrees to abandon the territories already conquered by its invading neighbor. , notably Crimea, and the two countries can start talking.

The intermittent outages of Starlink's services in areas where Ukraine was on the offensive seemed to correspond quite precisely to this new alignment of Musk to a certain line more favorable to the Russian vision. Elon Musk reportedly discussed the war in Ukraine with Vladimir Putin, which he subsequently denied, before supporting, at the beginning of October, a “peace plan” rather favorable to the Kremlin.

And it was the same month when the malfunctions were noted. Network outages were reported from the front and the regions of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk, in the fall of 2022, by Ukrainian soldiers. In the midst of the autumn offensive against the Russian army, they suddenly found themselves plunged into informational darkness.

The influence of China?

If the interruptions of the Starlink network may have been motivated by these exchanges with Russia, the New Yorker explored a final hypothesis: that of the influence of China, an ally of Russia on which Musk heavily depends, particularly for Tesla. China is a colossal market for Tesla, and the brand's gigantic facilities in Shanghai produce half of the vehicles it sells worldwide. And China, a discreet ally of Russia, made it clear to Musk that it viewed his support for Ukraine with a very negative eye, undoubtedly having in mind what could happen in Taiwan if an invasion came. be decided.

UKRAINE AGAINST CORRUPTION ZELENSKY REPLACES ITS DEFENSE MINISTER

President Volodymyr Zelensky announced, Sunday September 3, 2023, the upcoming replacement of his Defense Minister Oleksiï Reznikov by Roustem Oumerov. “Oleksiï Reznikov has lived through more than 550 days of war. I believe that the ministry needs new approaches and new ways of interacting with the army as well as with civil society at large,” said the Ukrainian president .

Ukraine's negotiator with Moscow

Roustem Umerov is a Crimean Tatar, head of the State Property Fund of Ukraine. If his appointment will have to be validated by Parliament this week, the choice of this eminent leader of the Crimean Tatar community is an important symbol, while the Ukrainian peninsula remains under Russian control since its annexation in 2014. At the
age 41-year-old Roustem Oumerov is an active member of the Tatar community, a Muslim minority which makes up between 12 and 15% of the population of Crimea.

The appointment of this man seems to be a strong gesture on the part of the Ukrainian government, signifying that they intend to embody resistance to Russian oppression. After the forced annexation of Crimea in 2014 by Russia, the latter attempted to legitimize its action by organizing a referendum largely boycotted by the Tatars.

In response, Moscow illegalized the Majlis, the traditional assembly of this Muslim minority, and imprisoned several of its members.
By appointing Roustem Oumerov, kyiv is also opting for a diplomat experienced in the complex area of ​​the war waged by Russia on its territory. He has played a negotiating role on several occasions on behalf of Ukraine, serving as co-chair of the Crimea Platform in the Ukrainian Parliament, coordinating international diplomatic efforts to reverse the 2014 annexation of the peninsula.

Additionally, he participated in talks with Moscow on topics such as prisoner exchanges, civilian evacuations, and even the creation of a maritime corridor to transport Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea.

Two recent scandals

This change at the head of the Ministry of Defense comes especially in the midst of the Ukrainian counter-offensive and while the Ukrainian head of state has promised to strengthen the fight against corruption, an endemic problem in Ukraine, in response in particular to the conditions posed by the European Union to leave Kiev its status as a candidate for membership.

The country has indeed been shaken by several recent corruption scandals, one of which involves the Ministry of Defense, accused by the Ukrainian media of having tripled the price of winter uniforms from a Turkish company after signing them. Defense Minister Oleksiï Reznikov defended these prices by asserting that they corresponded to the prices offered by Turkish manufacturers.
At the end of January, a series of senior Ukrainian officials were dismissed from their posts after the press revealed that a contract signed by the ministry and relating to the purchase of food products for soldiers showed amounts that were in fact overestimated. Oleksiï Reznikov, who then admitted that his ministry's anti-corruption services had "failed in their task", retained his post.

A figure with more integrity than his predecessor

Above all, the pedigree of this appreciated Ukrainian figure contrasts with that of his predecessor, Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov. In September 2022, Umerov was appointed head of the State Property Fund, the country's main privatization body.

It has since been praised in Ukraine for its exemplary management, while the body was once associated with corruption scandals. Volodymyr Zelensky therefore chose a man with a reputation as incorruptible to succeed the tainted mandate of Oleksii Reznikov.

A symbolic response to the conditions set by the European Union so that Ukraine, plagued by corruption, maintains its status as a candidate for membership.

MYSTERY AROUND THE DEATH OF PRIGOZHIN

BOSS OF THE WAGNER GROUP

Three days after the accident, the facts are still uncertain.

Black smoke, the sound of an explosion and a plane falling. On Wednesday August 23, in the early evening, a private plane to connect Moscow to Saint Petersburg crashed near the village of Kujenkino, 200 km northwest of Moscow.

Ten people were on board and none survived. The leader of the Wagner paramilitary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was on the passenger list, reports Russian news agencies, Ria Novosti, TASS and Interfax.

Friday evening, the bodies of the ten people present in the plane were found according to the Russian investigators, as well as the flight recorders of the device.

“Molecular genetic analyzes are underway to establish their identity […], and a detailed examination of the premises,” the Russian Investigative Committee said on Telegram. On Wednesday, two hours after the plane crash, the private militia of which Prigojine was the boss, confirmed his death on Telegram.

“Too brutal and amateurish work”

Earlier in the day, the Kremlin had formally denied the suspicions that accuse Vladimir Putin for three days, two months after the aborted rebellion of Yevgeny Prigojine.

“Currently, around the air disaster and the tragic deaths of passengers, in particular Yevgeny Prigojine, there is a lot of speculation and we know well in which direction we are speculating in the West,” said Dmitri Peskov.

The Russian president's spokesman was asked about insinuations by Western leaders that the Kremlin had ordered Mr Prigozhin's assassination. He believes that the subject must be approached "on the basis of facts. There are not many of them yet, because they still have to be elucidated by the ongoing investigation. Yesterday, in this regard, the President [ Vladimir Putin] said he expects the results of the investigation in the near future,” he continued.

Asked about the confirmation of death and the identification of the body of Yevgeny Prigojine, Mr. Peskov replied:

"If you listened carefully to the statement made yesterday by the President of the Russian [Federation], he said that all necessary expertise will be carried out, including DNA analysis. As soon as the official conclusions are ready for publication, they will be published".

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko also refuted the accusations against Russia on Friday.

"I know Putin," said the statesman, quoted by the state news agency Belta.

"He's a thoughtful, very calm man […] So I can't imagine that it was he who did that," argued Vladimir Putin's loyal ally. According to him, the plane crash was "too brutal and amateurish work" to blame Putin.

But in Washington, Paris, Berlin or kyiv, senior officials do not seem to see things the same way. On Thursday, the United States deemed it likely that Vladimir Putin caused the death of Yevgeny Prigojine.

But the US military said it had "no information that a surface-to-air missile" was involved in Wednesday's crash, spokesman Pat Ryder said. In France, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna commented ironically on Thursday on "the death rate among Putin's relatives is particularly high".

What future for Wagner ?

Without a leader, does the Wagner empire have a chance of surviving, wonder many specialists and world leaders?

In any case, Moscow will not have waited very long to reframe the thousands of paramilitaries of the Wagner group. On Friday, the Russian president forced them by presidential decree to take an oath to Russia, as regular army soldiers do. In particular, they will have to swear “fidelity” and “loyalty” to Russia, “strictly follow the orders of commanders and superiors” and “sacredly respect the Russian Constitution”.

But it's still a very powerful "brand", which won't necessarily disappear, and thousands of fighters still identify with this patch, but the militia - as it existed in recent years - ceased to exist with the mutiny, and even more so with the death of its leader.

For Ruslan Trad, a researcher at the American think tank Atlantic Council, Moscow actually has no interest in dissolving the organization. According to him, Wagner "has a successful model - in several commercial, intelligence and military areas - which serves Russian foreign policy and the Kremlin's anti-sanctions efforts".

Wagner in the Central African Republic is more than men with Kalashnikovs – it is political consultants, controlled media, mining, internet trolls…

And each activity reinforces the other. Joana de Deus Pereira, researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, also believes that Moscow cannot do without Wagner, but in a new form, “probably under another name”.

"We must consider Wagner […] as a hydra with many heads", she underlines, questioned by the BBC.

TOWARDS A FAILURE OF THE UKRAINIAN

 COUNTER-OFFENSIVE ?

Launched at the beginning of June, the latter seems, since, to skate. According to CNN on Tuesday, senior Western and especially American officials are describing "sobering" assessments of the Ukrainian army's ability to retake "important territories" from Russia during this counter-offensive.

"They will see over the next two weeks if there is a chance to make progress. But it is highly unlikely that they will make progress that would change the balance of the conflict," a senior Western official told CNN.

Mike Quigley, a Democratic U.S. Representative from Illinois who recently returned from Europe where he rubbed shoulders with U.S. commanders in charge of training Ukrainian soldiers, said the meetings "provide food for thought. We are reminded of the challenges they face. confronted. This is the most complicated period of the war".

Experts returning from Ukraine recognize the solidity of the Russian army. We are preparing for a long war.

The Russian army has indeed gained in efficiency and holds its positions firmly. The Russian army said on Thursday that it had advanced in northeastern Ukraine in the past few hours. In its daily report, the Russian Defense Ministry says its troops have "improved their position" in an area where they have regained the initiative for several weeks.

"In the direction of Kupyansk, the assault units of the Western combat groups have, during offensive actions, improved their positions in the front line," said the Russian Defense Ministry.

Faced with the advance of Russian troops, the Ukrainian authorities ordered the evacuation of 37 localities in the Kupyansk district on Thursday. The regional government indicated on Telegram recommending the population to leave the area for Kharkiv "in view of the constant shelling and the security situation in the territory", indicates Ukranian Pravda.

Back from the front, Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google and very involved in the development of a Ukrainian military drone industry, admitted on CNN on July 17 that the Russians had mastered the air and had become masters in the electronic jamming of the opponent. "Currently, they are intercepting or grounding the drones and planes that the Ukrainians are launching," he added.

In addition, the human losses are heavy on the Ukrainian side. Between twenty and thirty thousand deaths rolled in the Russian "meat grinder" in two months, according to the sources. The question of troop renewal is delicate for Ukraine, a country of 36 million inhabitants, ten million of whom have gone abroad.

The Kiev army is said to have more than 50,000 men in reserve as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Friday August 11 on Telegram that all heads of regional military registration and enlistment offices will be fired after reports of illegal enrichment (...) of illicit profits, illegal transport across the border of conscripts", detailed the head of state.

Russia, a country four times more populated, would have nearly 300,000 men ready to go to the front. And recruiting continues apace across Russia, with the goal of a million-strong army.

As for equipment, according to The New York Times, Ukraine had lost 20% of committed heavy equipment during the first two weeks of its offensive. The West does not have sufficient stockpiles of weapons to match Russian firepower over the long term. Unable to send the expected conventional shells, the United States had no other resource than to deliver the controversial cluster bombs, very deadly for civilians and banned by most Western countries.

 The current situation is undeniably unfavorable for Ukraine and NATO, engaged in a conflict that is getting bogged down. Something to make the United States think about what to do next...

UNITED KINGDOM

"FLOATING HOTEL" OR "FLOATING PRISON"

TO WELCOME ASYLUM SEEKERS

A first group of asylum seekers settled on Monday August 7, 2023 aboard the Bibby Stockholm, a huge barge at the quay in the south-west of England. It is a project to fight against immigration.

With its 222 cabins, the "Bibby Stockholm" is supposed to accommodate up to 500 migrants Located in Portland in the south-west of England, this barge, 93 meters long and 27 wide, has become the emblem of politics carried out by the British government for several months.

In difficulty in the polls a year from the next legislative elections, the head of the conservative government Rishi Sunak has made the need to "stop the boats" illegally crossing the Channel a priority.

A way to save money in welcoming migrants while deterring potential asylum seekers...

Suella Braverman, Minister of the Interior, fully assumes her anti-migration policy.

More recently, it tripled fines for landlords and employers who allow illegal migrants to rent and work in the UK.

In Portland, the project has angered local residents, some fearing for their safety while others denounce a "floating prison" at the foot of their island of some 13,000 inhabitants.

The authorities refute this term and assure that asylum seekers will be able to enter and leave as they please.

WYD OF LISBON THE POPE TO THE YOUTH

"DO NOT BE AFRAID GO FORWARD !"

Pope Francis presided over the final mass of World Youth Day (WYD) on Sunday morning in Lisbon in front of 1.5 million pilgrims.

The latter were gathered in a huge park laid out for the occasion on the banks of the mouth of the Tagus. for the final mass, the culmination of a week of festive, cultural and spiritual gatherings.

After a night spent on the spot under the stars, the young pilgrims woke up to music to the sound of musical entertainment by a Portuguese priest-DJ, in a stage that looked like a giant festival, at dawn on a day very hot, with temperatures likely to reach 40°C.

A great closing mass broadcast on giant screens was celebrated in the presence of 10,000 priests, 700 bishops and 30 cardinals, on a colossal altar dominating the site.

"Don't be afraid. Have courage. Go forward."

These words of Pope Francis to the million young people who have come from all over the world to Lisbon for World Youth Day (WYD) have not ceased to awaken joy and hope in hearts.

The Pope assured that it is up to the Church "to immerse us in the waters of this sea casting the net of the Gospel", "without pointing fingers but bringing to the people of our time a proposal for a new life , that of Jesus”:

fostering acceptance of the Gospel in a multicultural society; to bring the Father close in situations of precariousness and poverty which are increasing, especially among young people, bring the love of Christ where the family is fragile and the relationships hurt, transmit the joy of the Spirit where demoralization and fatalism reign, further detailed the Sovereign Pontiff, confident of dreaming of the Portuguese Church "as a safe port" for all those who face crossings, shipwrecks and to the storms of life.

At the end of this Sunday's service, the 86-year-old pope warmly thanked the young people, volunteers and organizers of the event. 

"Thanks to you, Lisbon, which will remain in the memory of these young people as a house of brotherhood and a city of dreams," he said.

The Argentinian Jesuit also prayed for “those who could not come because of conflicts and wars”.

“I feel great pain for dear Ukraine, which continues to suffer greatly,” he said.

PRAGMATISM IN EUROPE TWINS OVER ECOLOGY

ONE HUNDRED NEW LICENSES

GAS AND OIL INDUSTRIES IN THE NORTH SEA

"We have all witnessed how Russian President Vladimir Putin has instrumentalized energy, disrupting supplies and stalling growth in countries around the world," the conservative prime minister said in a statement. “Now more than ever, it is vital that we strengthen our energy security and capitalize on this independence to bring more affordable and clean energy to UK homes and businesses,” adds Mr Sunak.

Both France and Germany are taking this new situation into account. Hand in hand with TotalÉnergies, Paris is preparing to massively import liquefied natural gas (LNG) via a new floating terminal in Le Havre. By the end of the year, it should land 3.9 million tonnes of LNG per year, from the United States, Qatar and Africa.

Germany is also inaugurating new terminals to import liquefied gas. The argument brandished to justify these is, again, the search for energy security.

On the "side" of households
On the national level, the support granted to oil and gas exploitation in the North Sea is presented as a measure intended to preserve more than 200,000 jobs. Additionally, the government is unveiling CO₂ capture and storage projects in the North Sea, which could create up to 50,000 jobs. However, these initiatives are attracting criticism from some environmentalists who see them as an excuse to maintain fossil fuels.
The UK's environmental policies have been in the spotlight since Labor's surprise defeat by the Conservatives in a local election in west London. The defeat was coupled with resistance from voters to the planned extension of a tax on polluting vehicles to the whole of Greater London, wanted by the Labor mayor, Sadiq Khan.

Under pressure from part of its majority, the government suggests that certain environmental objectives could be relaxed, particularly with regard to energy standards for housing. Rishi Sunak, supported by a column published in the Sunday Telegraph, depicts Labor as "anti-motorist" and positions itself in favor of households who need their cars.

The British Prime Minister, however, reaffirms his commitment to the transition to carbon neutrality, but insists on the need to do so in a pragmatic and proportionate way, so as not to burden families in the face of high inflation.

According to a YouGov poll, although 65% of Britons say they are concerned about the consequences of climate change, the majority oppose measures that would involve personal effort.

MELONI'S ITALY PRIVILEGED CONTACT 

FOR AFRICA IN EUROPE TO REGULATE IMMIGRATION

The Rome Process

When she was in opposition, Giorgia Meloni promised to establish a “naval blockade” of the North African coasts. Now head of government, she wants to build a bridge with the other side of the Mediterranean to fight against illegal immigration by promoting the economic development of Africa. “This is the start of a long process,” said Giorgia Meloni opening the conference during which she detailed the “Rome process”.

It will have to obtain "concrete results in the fight against illegal immigration, the management of legal immigration flows, support for refugees, and above all, the most important thing, otherwise everything we do will be insufficient, a large cooperation to support the development of Africa, and particularly of the countries of origin” of the migrants, explained the president of the council.

According to data from Rome, about 80,000 people have crossed the Mediterranean and arrived on the Italian coasts since the beginning of the year, compared to 33,000 the previous year at the same period, with a majority of departures from the Tunisian coast. According to the UN, more than 100,000 migrants arrived in Europe in the first six months of 2023 from the North African coasts, Turkey and Lebanon, slightly less than the 189,000 recorded in 2022. The creation
of a fund Giorgia Meloni defends the recent partnership between the EU and Tunisia, which includes aid of 105 million euros to fight against smugglers, as a model for new relations with North Africa.

Similar agreements could be considered with Egypt and Morocco. Currently, Italy is putting forward its economic cooperation projects on the African continent, totaling nearly one billion euros.
Following the conference, the President of the Italian Council announced the creation of a fund which will be fed by a first conference of donors, to which the United Arab Emirates has already contributed with 100 million euros. Priority funding should focus on strategic investments and infrastructure to ensure fair and sustainable cooperation. These plans will be unveiled at an Italy-Africa intergovernmental summit to be held in Rome in early October.

Diplomatic activism

Major absentees this Sunday in Rome, Germany, Spain and France. However, these are the main countries of destination for secondary migratory flows. If Giorgia Meloni has not invited them, it is because she wishes to make Italy the privileged interlocutor in Europe for African and Arab countries.
The Italian government seems to want to take advantage of France's loss of influence in the region. It is moreover the Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte who accompanied Giorgia Meloni to Tunis.

"Italy has all the cards in hand to play the leading role in the Mediterranean", whether on the migration file, economic cooperation, or even to become the "crossroads" of energy distribution between North Africa and the Europe, she concluded at the Rome conference.

NATO SUMMIT IN DISPERSED ORDER

OR CRACKS IN THE ALLIANCE

Different sensitivities

But within the Alliance, it is recalled that Ukraine's membership is everyone's business. Diplomats have long negotiated to find how to invite Ukraine more firmly than in 2008, knowing that the door cannot be opened to a country at war.

Within the Alliance, sensitivities are different between, on the one hand, the Baltic countries which would like to integrate Ukraine as quickly as possible and, on the other, the United States concerned about global nuclear balances. While he has been very forthcoming with substantial military assistance to kyiv, US President Joe Biden has always been much more reserved about Ukraine's promises of membership in the Alliance.

"The NATO membership process takes time," he told CNN before flying to Europe.

And the tenant of the White House has mentioned, for the time being, an agreement similar to that between the United States and Israel: the Jewish state receives several billion dollars every year from Washington in military aid, which provides long-term visibility. These long-term arms supply commitments are being discussed between the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany. According to diplomatic sources, these commitments would be formulated outside the framework of NATO. The arms pledges would complement the tens of billions of dollars of equipment already delivered to Ukraine since Russia invaded Ukraine just over 500 days ago.

"Unprecedented and absurd", according to Zelensky

The refusal to set a deadline for his country's accession is "unprecedented and absurd", considers the Ukrainian president.

"Volodymyr Zelensky's desire to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization plays Putin's game," analyzes a former American general interviewed on the MSNBC channel. "It seems to me that it is reckless to insist on this public gesture. It serves Putin's strategy. […] So I think he has crossed the line, and it is not good for Ukraine. "

Similar story for the BBC, for which “the fact that Volodymyr Zelensky declared that the absence of a timetable was “absurd only underlined his diplomatic failure”.

"Ukraine is not close to joining the Alliance"

The allies must present today a plan of long-term commitments for the security of the country invaded by Russia. In an attempt to reassure him, the G7 countries should issue a joint statement on support for Kiev in the years to come, to help it fight Russia and counter future aggression. To convince the Ukrainian president that his country is indeed getting closer to the Alliance, a first meeting of a Ukraine-NATO council will also take place.

"Ukraine is however not close to joining the Alliance", estimates an editorialist in the columns of Washington In a column entitled "Why Zelensky's complaint about NATO membership is unreasonable", the author considers that Ukraine's accession to NATO would be tantamount to a "delayed declaration of war on Russia".

And to continue “There is another reason why Ukraine is not yet close to joining the Alliance. Volodymyr Zelensky's government also has a tendency to lie when its actions elicit an adverse international reaction. This dynamic only helps Russia and is incompatible with NATO's overriding interest in trust and clear dialogue.”

Despite the procrastination for a rapid accession to NATO, a whole train of new arms deliveries was announced on Tuesday.

New arms deliveries

France will deliver Scalp long-range missiles to Ukraine. French President Emmanuel Macron made the announcement on Tuesday, the first day of the NATO summit. The Storm Shadow cruise missile, called Scalp by the French military, which is being jointly developed by the UK and France, is launched from the air. It has a range of more than 250 kilometers, more than any other weapons supplied to kyiv by Western countries. With their long range, these missiles have the ability to reach areas in eastern Ukraine controlled by Russian forces. Paris will thus follow London in its decision to provide guided air-to-surface missiles to strike targets long distance fixed.

Berlin will deliver nearly 700 million euros worth of additional weapons to Ukraine, German government sources learned on Tuesday, on the first day of the NATO leaders' summit meeting in Vilnius. Second contributor in terms of military aid for Ukraine after the United States, Germany had already announced on May 13, the day before a visit by President Volodymyr Zelensky, arms deliveries for 2.7 billion euros. euros. Berlin has intensified its efforts: it delivers ammunition, Leopard tanks and anti-aircraft defence.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also announced on Tuesday a joint statement by the G7 countries (France, United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, Italy, Canada) on "security commitments" for Ukraine.

Biden's cluster munitions banned by Oslo convention

Not to mention last Friday's announcement of delivery of cluster bombs to Ukraine by Biden: The United States indeed announced last Friday a new military aid of 800 million dollars to the Ukrainian army , including highly controversial cluster munitions. This is the 42nd package of this kind that will be delivered by the world's leading military power for a total value of more than 41 billion dollars.

In fact, these cluster munitions scatter small explosive projectiles randomly over areas as wide as four football stadiums. Some submunitions do not explode on impact and therefore pose a danger for decades after the conflict.

A US law normally prohibits the production and export of submunitions with a failure rate greater than 1%, which covers almost all US stock. But Joe Biden intends to circumvent this obstacle by relying on another regulation: he can provide any military aid if he judges that it is in the national security interest of his country.

The Americans no longer produce them, but Washington has them in stock and could supply Ukrainian forces with cluster munitions for 155 millimeter howitzers.

"A cluster munition is a weapon which, in its body, will contain several other small active explosive munitions, and not just inert pellet bombs. This can make it possible to deal with less ammunition, by firing a once, over a much larger area. When you watch the training videos with this kind of ammunition, you see that the landing zones, treated by each shell, are often much larger. Simply because one shell will drop other shells, which may in turn explode, and do even more damage over a much larger and much denser area." explains an expert.

Some of these small bombs can remain active for years or even decades and therefore pose a serious risk to civilian populations living in areas affected by this type of bombardment. The detonation failure rate of cluster munitions varies greatly from 2 to 40% due to many factors.

5 to 10% of these cluster bombs do not explode on impact, constituting a danger for the populations, recalls Human Rights Watch, which urges the United States not to provide them. Forced to note the Russian superiority in terms of artillery, the United States of Joe Biden has therefore taken an ethical step by agreeing to provide the Ukrainians with these devastating weapons for civilians, prohibited from use in very many countries.

The distancing of the Allies

As the White House has admitted, the intensity of the ongoing conventional fighting has strained American reserves, to the point of paving the way for these controversial deliveries to counterbalance Russian superiority in artillery. This admission of weakness concerns all of Ukraine's Western allies.

The controversy over the cluster bombs delivered by the United States hides the loss of support for Ukraine. The allies of the United States are indeed reserved on this delivery of arms. The 2008 Oslo Convention, to which many NATO countries are signatories, prohibits this type of weaponry, which can cause considerable harm to civilians.

Just before receiving Joe Biden in London on Monday, on the eve of the NATO summit in Vilnius (Lithuania), British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak thus distanced himself from the American decision. He recalled that the United Kingdom signed the Oslo Convention and “discourages” the use of cluster munitions. "We will continue to do our part to support Ukraine against Russia's illegal and unprovoked invasion," he said. Same story on the side of Madrid. "Spain, based on the firm commitment it has made with Ukraine, has also made a firm commitment that certain weapons and bombs cannot be delivered under any circumstances," said the Minister of defense, Margarita Robles, Saturday.

As for France, it also recalled its opposition in principle to the use of these materials, and underlined its "commitment not to produce or use cluster munitions".

NETHERLANDS WHEN IMMIGRATION TAKES DOWN

THE GOVERNMENT

Prime Minister Mark Rutte handed in his resignation to the king on Saturday the day after the fall of his government due to differences over the policy for welcoming refugees, a particularly hot topic currently on the Old Continent.

Mark Rutte announced that he would not stand for re-election as leader of his party (VVD) in the next elections. He intends to leave politics.

"What motivates me: the Netherlands"

“In recent days people have been wondering what motivates me,” Mr Rutte said, referring to the row within the coalition over asylum policy. “The only answer is: the Netherlands. My fate in this regard is entirely secondary. On Sunday I decided not to be available as the lead candidate for the VVD for the next elections."

Once a new government is in place after elections next fall, Mr. Rutte will leave politics. King Willem-Alexander asked him to continue to manage major issues, such as the war in Ukraine. In consultation with the Lower House, he will determine which files will still be processed.

"Insurmountable" dispute over the policy of welcoming refugees.

The current coalition has been struggling for some time, especially in the face of the deep peasant crisis engendered by the government's maximalist ecological agenda. And on the question of the right to asylum, it is a decisive moment, because of the new wave of migration affecting the country, as well as all of Western Europe, and which is approaching the tsunami of 2015. With nearly 47 000 asylum seekers in 2022, this figure is proportionally higher than that of France. Serious incidents in the reception centers testify to the saturation of capacities, even if the situation is far from reaching the explosive level of the crisis in France.

Rutte therefore sounded the alarm in April and wanted to get out of the ambiguity by proposing to strictly limit the family reunification of refugees. However, negotiations within the government failed, because two coalition partners opposed any real limitations. The small progressive Christian party CU, heir to the tradition of humanitarian Protestantism, and especially the "center left" party D66, imbued with multiculturalism, under the influence of its leader, Deputy Prime Minister Sigrid Kaag, a former senior civil servant of the United Nations, are both favorable to the reception of migrants and to the causes of the "Global South".

This event marks the end of 12 years of governance and follows the inability of the executive to reach an agreement to restrict the influx of asylum seekers.

The fall of the Dutch government confirms the gap which is widening everywhere in Europe between the dominant politico-media discourse and the feeling of the working and middle classes.

WHY THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION WANTS TO REGULATE NGT THESE "NEW GMOs"

The European Commission has just begun work on regulations distinguishing New Genetic Technologies (NGT), based on mutagenesis, from GMOs, using transgenesis.

Genetic modifications that are more targeted, more precise and faster than traditional breeding techniques, plants resulting from NGT as safe as the varieties resulting from these same traditional breeding techniques, monitoring adapted to their risk profile, genetic traits potentially bearers of sustainability, adaptation to climate change and food security, all without modifying the slightest gene in the GMO regulations in force since 2001:

these are the arguments put forward by the European Commission, which on 5 July presented a proposal for law aimed at distinguishing the legal framework of NGT from that of GMOs, all against the backdrop of the Green Deal.

The European Commission thus plans to deregulate NGT. These new generation GMOs would be largely exempt from the authorization, traceability, labeling and monitoring rules imposed on their historical counterparts.

These techniques, expected by a majority of agricultural unions and Member States, make it possible to develop improved plant varieties, which could be more resilient to climate change and pests, require less fertilizer and pesticides or offer higher yields. students. Here are the promises of "NGT", the "new genomic technologies", in the agricultural sector according to the Commission.

NGT are "new GMOs" ?

GMOs are organisms whose genome has been modified in the laboratory to give them new characteristics. NGTs are based on an innovative technique: "molecular scissors", also known as CRISPR-Cas9. They allow very precise genetic modifications, without necessarily introducing external genetic material to the basic organism. Thus, NGT are indeed GMOs. The genetic modifications carried out through NGTs fall rather under what is called "cisgenesis", which consists of the artificial transfer of genes between organisms of the same species. NGTs also exploit some targeted mutagenesis processes. Unlike adding an external gene,

NGTs are still at an experimental stage, with only a few trials conducted on maize fields in France and Belgium, as well as potato crops in Sweden.
However, NGT are not transgenic GMOs. Transgenesis consists of transferring a gene from one species to another in the laboratory, without sexual reproduction. Transgenic GMOs sometimes raise concerns about their ethical implications and their potential impact on consumer health and biodiversity.

Towards the deregulation of NGT ?

Since a decision of 2018, NGT are legally considered as GMOs, in accordance with European legislation. Due to their recent scientific development and artificiality, all genetically modified organisms are subject to strict regulations. The limits of use are defined by three texts, including the main directive of 2001 and two regulations. Currently, no GMO can be marketed or released into the environment without authorization, which is issued in the absence of health and environmental risks. GMOs authorized for marketing are also subject to monitoring, traceability and labeling in accordance with these regulations.

The European Commission proposes to create two distinct categories of NGT.

The first would include "complex" mutations impossible to obtain without artificial intervention and would remain subject to current GMO regulations. The second category would encompass mutations obtained by genetic modification, but which could be obtained naturally or by traditional agricultural breeding/breeding. This second category would be subject to significant deregulation, without risk assessment or prior authorization, and without traceability. Products in this category would therefore be treated as conventional seed.
Deregulated "single mutation" NGTs would simply be registered in a public database, with a specific labeling requirement only for seeds. However, the European Commission proposes a restriction: no NGT product could be labeled "organic".

Arguments "for" and "against" NGT

The announcement by the European Commission, which postponed the issue of intellectual property, provoked predictable reactions.

In March 2021, the NGO Corporate Europe Observatory published a series of documents entitled "Crispr Files", revealing the significant influence of agronomy giants and biotechnology researchers within the European Commission in favor of the deregulation of NGT. Until now, the giants of agrochemicals had to finance indiscriminately the regulatory procedures for European approval for all their GMOs. For the proponents of these genomic modifications, easing the legal and financial constraints linked to the development of NGT "reduced mutations" would make it possible to accelerate research in this field and to democratize these "less risk" technologies within the EU.

According to their advocates, "new GMOs" could play a crucial role in ecological transition, the fight against global food crises and the impact of climate change. For some researchers, modifying the genome represents a concrete way of making plants more resistant to water stress (in the face of increasingly frequent droughts), more productive on the same surface or even more robust in the face of diseases. Seeds from NGT, naturally "pest-killing", could also reduce the use of polluting chemicals, thus contributing to the European objective of halving the use of pesticides by 2030.

On the other hand, for environmental NGOs, NGT are considered as "hidden GMOs" and should therefore be subject to the same regulations as traditional GMOs. According to these organizations, the risk of genetic error is present in the same way. According to Suzanne Dalle, a member of Greenpeace, the "complexity" of mutations established as a criterion by the European Commission does not constitute a reliable indicator of the potential impact of a seed derived from NGT on nature. Indeed, even mutations obtained by traditional agricultural selection can be detrimental to biodiversity. "Circumventions" could therefore occur,
Another concern relates to what English speakers call "Super Crops", extremely resilient "super varieties" from NGT, which could in the long term reduce crop diversity and standardize agricultural landscapes.

In addition, the release of new GMOs would further impoverish agricultural biodiversity and soil health, essential for guaranteeing food security, by encouraging monocultures and genetic uniformity. Some researchers are also concerned about the impossibility of tracing the origin of a seed, whether natural or artificial, without the obligation of traceability. Thus, in the case of two neighboring fields, pollination could occur in an uncontrolled manner between a GMO seed and an "organic" seed, without the possibility of monitoring fertilization and any multiplication of the genetic modification. In addition, the absence of labeling on foods containing NGT products would deprive consumers of knowing what is on their plate.

Application of the precautionary principle ?
In order to prevent concentration phenomena, the Académie des technologies also recommends a gradual deployment of NGTs, which would make it possible to add precautions while avoiding the concentrations observed during the development of GMOs. The latter are characterized by a geographical concentration (85% of GMO crops are found on the American continent), a specific concentration (soya, corn, cotton and rapeseed represent 99% of the surfaces cultivated with GMOs) and an agronomic concentration (tolerance to herbicides and resistance to pests concentrate almost all genetic modifications).

The Academy also underlines the phenomenon of industrial concentration inherent in biotechnologies, which the NGT would not call into question, while underlining the lag of France and the EU compared to the United States and China in the field of genome editing, symbolized by CRISPR-Cas9 molecular scissors technology. This technology has also earned its French co-discoverer a Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2020, thus opening up new therapeutic perspectives in the field of human health.
In France, the Economic, Social and Environmental Council (CESE) recommends the application of the precautionary principle with regard to NGT. Austria, Hungary, Germany and Luxembourg are also opposed to the development of this technology.

Faced with the fears of critics of GMOs, the European executive asserts that it is adopting a cautious approach by excluding transgenesis (introduction of genetic material from a species with which crosses are not possible), which would continue to come under the 2001 legislation on GMOs.

It would allow techniques resulting in plant-like organisms that could undergo such evolution through natural crossing or through conventional breeding. We are talking here about targeted mutagenesis (mutations of the genome without inserting foreign genetic material, for example by modifications within the same plant species) and cisgenesis (insertion of genetic material between naturally compatible plants).

The Commission's proposals, which exclude the organic sector at the request of the latter, will now be examined by the Member States, and the passage of this deregulation project before the European Parliament promises lively debates between opponents and defenders of the project.

TWO UKRAINIAN GENERALS DEAD,

TWELVE CIVILIANS AND SIXTY WOUNDED

IN THE BOMBING OF A RESTAURANT

US President Joe Biden has called Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin a "pariah" whose army assures that it is not targeting any civilian targets in Ukraine. “As a result of a high-precision strike ... two generals, up to 50 officers of the Ukrainian forces and up to 20 mercenaries and foreign military instructors who participated in a meeting ... were eliminated. » Press release from the Russian Ministry of Defense

ATAt least ten people died and 61 were injured in a Russian strike on Tuesday against a popular restaurant in Kramatorsk, a major city in eastern Ukraine still controlled by Kyiv, authorities said on Wednesday. A Russian strike on Tuesday June 27, 2023 targeted a popular restaurant in Kramatorsk, causing numerous victims; Apartments, shops, cars, a post office and several other buildings also suffered damage in Kramatorsk "Ten people were killed and 61 injured by the Russian attack on Kramatorsk," Ukrainian police said on Facebook. Three minors are among the dead and a child born in 2022 among the injured, according to the Emergency Situations Service, which said rescue operations are continuing and seven people have been rescued from the rubble alive.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov assured that Russia only strikes in Ukraine “facilities that are somehow linked to military infrastructure”.

The strike destroyed the Ria Pizza restaurant, a downtown establishment popular with journalists, aid workers and soldiers. Ukrainian media have mentioned the presence of foreign military instructors in town.

Three Colombian personalities, the famous writer Hector Abad, the politician Sergio Jaramillo and the journalist Catalina Gomez, correspondent in Ukraine for the daily El Tiempo, were slightly injured while having dinner in the restaurant with the Ukrainian writer Victoria Amelina, According to a press release signed by MM. Abad and Jaramillo. The latter, a 37-year-old novelist, "is in critical condition, injured in the skull", adds the text.

In addition to the restaurant, apartments, shops, cars, a post office and several other buildings suffered damage, according to the Ukrainian prosecutor's office.

An important railway hub and home to military sites, Kramatorsk is very regularly targeted by Russian bombardments.

THE DANGER OF RUSSIAN NATIONALISTS IN FAVOR OF A MORE AGGRESSIVE WAR AGAINST UKRAINE

Moscow was the target of drone attacks on May 1 and on May 30, the Belgorod region was bombed and even overrun on May 22, leading to the evacuation of tens of thousands of Russian civilians.
At the same time, Putin is faced with the political challenge represented by Yevgeny Prigojine, the boss of the Wagner group, a private company which has recruited around 50,000 fighters to participate in the war on the side of Moscow. These fighters played a key role in capturing the Ukrainian city of Bakhmout, which fell on May 20 after a 224-day siege. Following this victory, a poll revealed that Prigojine appeared for the first time in the list of the 10 most reliable politicians in the eyes of Russians.

Growing criticism of the conduct of the war

However, in recent months Prigozhin has openly criticized the conduct of the war by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov. In May 2023, he held a series of public meetings in several Russian cities to present his demands to power, including general mobilization, the restoration of the death penalty and the establishment of an official state of war throughout the whole of Russia. Russia. In an attempt to control Prigozhin, Shoigu ordered all volunteer fighters to sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense by July 1, which Prigozhin refuses to do.
Prigojine's vast business empire includes media outlets, the Internet Research Agency, accused by the US of interfering in the 2016 US presidential election, as well as a film series and social media accounts allowing it to reach tens of millions of Russians. Together they form what journalist Scott Johnson has called the "Wagnerverse".
Against the backdrop of growing criticism of the conduct of the war and direct attacks on Russian territory, Vladimir Putin had to face some troubling questions when meeting military bloggers.

The growing concern of Russian ultra-nationalists

A poll in Russia shows that, so far at least, military setbacks have not led to a drop in popular support for the war. Many Russians believe it is imperative to do everything possible to avoid Russia's defeat, even if the outbreak of war was a mistake.
However, members of the Russian elite seem to share the growing concern expressed by military bloggers. Senior Russian officials and political experts took part in a meeting of the Foreign and Defense Policy Council on May 20-21.

Drop a nuclear bomb...

Konstantin Zatulin, known for his nationalist stances, said in a June 1 speech that the special operation's initial goals had not been achieved and admitted that Ukrainians hated them because "we are killing them". He also mentioned that a participant in the meeting had proposed dropping a nuclear bomb on Rzeszow, a transport hub in southeastern Poland through which most of the West's weapons are transported to the Ukraine.

Sergueï Karaganov, president of the Council, then published an article on June 14 arguing in favor of the demonstrative use of a nuclear weapon to compel the West to stop supplying arms to Ukraine.
Karaganov, once seen as a liberal advocating Russian integration in Europe, is now convinced that Russia's inability to defeat Ukraine poses a serious threat to its security. This development, coupled with his suggestion to use nuclear weapons, testifies to the growing belief among Russian elites that the country cannot achieve victory by conventional means alone.

In this context, Putin announced on June 16 that Russia had already started transferring some tactical nuclear weapons to the territory of Belarus.

Maintaining social stability and controlling nationalists who call for more aggressive warfare will become an increasingly complex challenge for Putin.

GREECE THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY WINS 

LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS

The fragmented and very weakened opposition
"Without adversary, absolute domination of Mitsotakis", headlined the centrist daily Ta Néa on Monday. Opposite, the opposition appears fragmented and very weakened, while some analysts worry about the absolute domination of the right in Parliament against a very weakened left opposition.
The Syriza party of former Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras (2015-2019) suffered a crushing defeat, failing even to maintain its score of 20% on May 21. Syriza won only 17.84% of the vote on Sunday, with a gap of more than 20 points compared to New Democracy.
"It was a tough battle... The result is obviously negative for us," admitted Tsipras.

Rise of the far-right

On the right side of the political spectrum, two far-right groups are also making their entrance. Three small nationalist and anti-migrant parties will have seats in the new Parliament, together obtaining 12.77% of the vote.
Among them, the "Spartans" created a surprise with 4.64% of the vote and 12 elected deputies. This party, little known until recently, is supported by a former executive of the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn formation, Ilias Kassidiaris. The latter is currently serving a heavy prison sentence and had been prevented by the Supreme Court from standing for election. According to a Greek court ruling, Golden Dawn and Elias Kasidiaris were not allowed to stand in the elections, and they failed to do so in the first round in May.

However, during the second round, hundreds of thousands of posters across the country informed voters that Mr Kasidiaris supported a party created a few weeks earlier, called "The Spartans".
The "Niki" party, meanwhile, won 10 seats. It emphasizes Orthodox Christian traditions, takes a tough stance on migrants, opposes abortion, and promotes Orthodoxy as a unifying element among Balkan peoples. Moreover, he opposed the support of Ukraine in its war against Russia.
The third party, the "Greek Solution" (12 seats), is also considered ultranationalist. Although it is more moderate than the other two,

In the presence of the President of the Hellenic Republic Katerina Sakellaropoulou and the Archbishop of the Orthodox Church Ieronymos, Kyriakos Mitsotakis was sworn in according to religious tradition in Greece. He is Prime Minister again.

"Strong Greece"

“For the second time in weeks, citizens not only sent a message of continuity on the path we charted four years ago, but also gave us a strong mandate to meet the great needs of our country” , Kyriákos Mitsotakis said on Sunday.

"We are undertaking difficult work for major reforms," ​​he said after being received by the head of state. "I am committed to implementing major changes during this second four-year term. We have a comfortable parliamentary majority to do so."
In recent weeks, the candidate had bet on his vision of a "strong Greece": "lower taxation to attract foreign investment and increase wages by 25% on average, new roadmap with Erdoğan's Turkey, health and justice reform" and the pursuit of a migration policy that he describes as "tough but fair".

The European right is delighted with this result: Thanasis Bakolas,pro-conservative trend in Europe.

"This is what we are seeing in Greece, as we also saw earlier this year in the national elections in Finland and regional elections in Spain. And this is precisely what we will see again in the upcoming parliamentary elections in Spain. in July and in Poland in October," he said.

GERMANY THE FAR RIGHT WINS A LOCAL AUTHORITY

AND AIMS FOR THE CHANCELLORY

A candidate for the chancellery in 2025

Additionally, AfD Co-Chair Alice Weidel confirmed on June 23 that her party will field a chancellor candidate for the first time in 2025, as the party, galvanized by its recent successes, soars in polls.
Traditionally, only the parties with a chance of leading the government explicitly nominate a candidate for the supreme office of chancellor before the federal elections, which has always been the case for the SPD and the CDU. In 2002, the FDP, a small centre-right party, was the object of ridicule when its leader, Guido Westerwelle, ran for chancellor. "Of course [we will present a candidate for the chancellery]. We would have done it even without the current polls," Weidel told RTL/NTV. However, she added that party members will have the final say on this issue.
Tino Chrupalla, co-president of the AfD,
Initially founded in 2013 as a Eurosceptic party, the AfD has gradually refocused on the issue of immigration. The German Parliament has passed a law introducing, among other things, a points system to facilitate and manage the arrival of non-European skilled migrants.

Repercussions for the Europeans of 2024

A new poll published Tuesday by RTL / NTV places the AfD in second position with 19%, behind the CDU (27%) and ahead of the SPD (18%), the party of Chancellor Olaf Scholz. This rise in power in the polls reflects growing dissatisfaction with the tripartite government coalition, which is increasingly torn apart.
This development could soon have important repercussions also within the European Union, as the AfD plans to campaign in the European elections of 2024 by promising to dissolve the European institutions.

"We... seek to dissolve the EU in an orderly manner and want to create a new interest-based European economic community, a league of European nations," reads a proposal from the party leadership, as part of of the manifesto for the European elections.

SWEDEN REGULATORY STRENGTHENING

ASYLUM

The Swedish government has presented additional guidelines aimed at furthering the ongoing investigation into the reception of asylum seekers, focusing on transit centers and facilities where asylum seekers will reside for the entire duration of their procedure. Maria Malmer Stenergard underlined the overriding objective of countering the existence of a "shadow society", while Ludvig Aspling expressed his support for this move.

Currently, people seeking asylum in Sweden have the choice of either staying in one of the Migration Board's accommodation centers or living in their own accommodation (EBO). However, an interim report published last year suggested abolishing the option to choose one's own accommodation, a recommendation now backed by the ruling coalition and the far-right Sweden Democrats.

Maria Malmer Stenergard said: "The investigator will analyze and consider what additional measures could be put in place in order to establish a system where asylum seekers will reside in designated asylum accommodation and remain available to the authorities." . She added that this measure would facilitate the monitoring of asylum seekers by the authorities, while ensuring adequate support for them.

The new directives also provide for strict monitoring of the obligation to notify the place of accommodation and the establishment of a system assigning a geographical area to asylum seekers for their stay. Those who violate these rules will have their asylum application withdrawn. Ludvig Aspling explained: "These measures mean that if a person, for example, does not cooperate with the asylum investigation, the authority should be able to decide to withdraw the application".

With regard to returns, the government and its far-right ally want to examine the methods of apprehending asylum seekers whose applications have been rejected and who are hiding illegally. Ludvig Aspling underlined that the investigation will include the impact of the presence of these people in the current system, as well as the allocation of a place of residence even after the rejection of their application.

The survey will also address the issue of strengthening Swedish reception rules in line with European legislation. The Swedish government and the Swedish Democrats have already affirmed their desire not to offer more generous material reception conditions than those required by the European Union. Thus, the survey will examine the possibilities for asylum seekers to contribute financially to their own reception, in particular by assuming health costs. The right to work of asylum seekers will also be given special attention.

Ludvig Aspling said: "European legislation could strengthen Swedish regulations". This move is part of the Swedish government's desire to explore ways to increase the voluntary return of migrants.

However, the opposition sees this announcement as yet another illustration of the influence of the far right on the Swedish government.

RUSSIA WHAT CONSEQUENCES AFTER WAGNER'S ABORTED MUTINY

This decision seems to have been taken with a view to avoiding a major crisis, but what additional guarantees have been given to this businessman supposed to go to neighboring Belarus? Is his exile temporary ? 

It would seem that the Kremlin wants to both keep Prigojine, known for his agitation, away while placing him under the protection of the faithful and docile Alexander Lukashenko.

The exile of Prigozhin

The future of the Concord Group and other Prigojine businesses remains uncertain. In the rush to defuse the explosive situation on Saturday, some practical considerations were probably set aside. One can imagine that Prigojine will continue to manage its less sensitive activities from Belarus. On the other hand, he may have to give up Wagner and his operations abroad.
Certainly, Wagner represents a serious threat for Moscow, but on paper, it is not disproportionate. 

According to the head of this organization, it has been decimated by the incessant attacks suffered during the last ten months in Bakhmout in Ukraine. Moreover, as early as the spring, the Ministry of Defense took control of the recruitment of fighters in prison, thus depriving Wagner of his main source of recruits. Around the same time, the controlled media were ordered not to report on him or his actions.

For now at least, Yevgeny Prigojine doesn't seem to have any allies.
The agreement reached on Saturday also stipulates that none of the fighters of the Wagner group will be prosecuted for their coup, because they are considered deserving on the Ukrainian front. Dmitry Peskov, Vladimir Putin's spokesman, even claimed that some of them could sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense, without providing further details. However, there is the question of operations abroad, particularly in the Central African Republic and Mali, where Wagner's contingents are still present and active.

If the private military company Wagner is dissolved, what will become of its employees? It is difficult to imagine that the Kremlin could do without the presence of these mercenaries in the gray areas where Russian influence is expanding. Will it be enough to change the name of the structure? Perhaps the COSI (Community of Officers for International Security) of Alexander Ivanov, close to Prigojine, could be suitable. Unless the Kremlin decides to call on another private Russian military company, just as tolerated but no more official than Wagner.

Consequences for the Defense ?

The wipeout at Defense does not imply the departure of senior Russian military officials, according to the agreement. However, it is difficult to imagine that the Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, and the Chief of Staff of the Russian army, Valery Gerasimov, emerged unscathed from this affair of mutiny. 

Their record since the start of the war in Ukraine has been far from satisfactory, and Prigojine has been calling for their departure for months. According to Russian sources, Aleksey Dyumin, Putin's former bodyguard who became governor of the Tula region, could be appointed to the Ministry of Defense. Dyumin, who worked in the FSB and commanded special forces during the annexation of Crimea, is said to have participated in the negotiations with Prigozhin.

Vladimir Putin did everything to avoid showing himself after his televised address on Saturday. He delegated the negotiations to his Belarusian protege, thus avoiding any direct contact with the "traitor" Prigojine. So far, he has not commented on the outcome of this crisis, which, without shaking power, upsets the balance somewhat.

Who can Vladimir Putin really count on ? Can he trust his army ?

Deployed en masse on the Ukrainian fronts, it has been severely tested by the fighting and its troops are tired of suffering setbacks. When in doubt, the Russian president relies more on the forces of Rosgvardia. Since April 2016, the Russian government has had a federal service of national guard troops, 400,000 strong. Rosgvardia, directly attached to the Russian President, is responsible for a wide range of missions: the fight against terrorism and extremism, maintaining public order, controlling borders and the circulation of arms. Putin can also count on the units of the FSB, the federal security service of the Russian Federation, which has 350,000 men and 200,000 border guards.

Prigojine reveals the deep weaknesses of the Russian military and security apparatus

In the complex landscape of Russian internal security, where the stakes are high, the key role of the FSB, the Federal Security Service, cannot be underestimated. Responsible for the fight against organized crime, counterintelligence, terrorism and drug trafficking, this organization is the backbone of Vladimir Putin's system. However, despite this apparently solid structure, the Russian president seems to show some doubt as to the loyalty of his military and security apparatus. The Prigozhin rebellion exposed serious weaknesses within this apparatus.

There is no doubt that Vladimir Putin will put his entourage and his army in order in the coming days in a country that has nuclear weapons.

THE CRAZY DAY OF THE REBELLION

OF THE WAGNER GROUP AGAINST MOSCOW

Everything is back to normal, or almost .

A spectacular but short-lived rebellion. Saturday evening, after a staggering day that saw Yevgeny Prigojine, the leader of the paramilitary group Wagner, openly defy Vladimir Putin's Russia and promise to free the Russian people from their corrupt oligarchy, an agreement was reached, through Belarus, faithful ally of the Kremlin.

The war in Ukraine will be able to continue. The mutineer Evguéni Prigojine is exiled to Belarus and Wagner's soldiers seem to be granted amnesty for their putsch attempt. In the Kaluga region, 180 km south of Moscow, movement is restricted. In Moscow, Mayor Sergei Sobyanin considers the situation "difficult" and warns that traffic could be blocked in certain districts of the capital. He declares Monday a day off.

The "anti-terrorist operation regime" established in Moscow and its region remains in force on Sunday. Large police patrols were still deployed along the main road leading out of Moscow in the south of the capital. In the Moscow region, traffic restrictions on the M-4 highway linking Moscow to Rostov are also maintained on Sunday, according to a press release from the Avtodor agency, responsible for highways in Russia.

Chechen forces arrive in Moscow region ; The Chechen leader, Ramzan Kadyrov, announced yesterday that he would send his men to "areas of tension". This morning, a video shows Kadyrov's troops parading on a deserted bridge in Kolomna, in the Moscow region.

Wagner "turned around", according to Prigozhin. Shortly after 7 p.m., on his Telegram account, Evguéni Prigojine said he ordered his men to return to their bases in order "to avoid a bloodbath". He also claims that Wagner's fighters have advanced 200 km towards Moscow in the past 24 hours.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko claims to have negotiated Wagner's "halt of troop movements" and a "de-escalation of tensions", according to the unofficial Belarusian Presidency Telegram channel.

The fighters of the paramilitary group Wagner, which had taken control of the Russian army headquarters in Rostov on Saturday, left the city, announced the regional governor. “The Wagner Group convoy left Rostov and headed for its camps,” Vasily Golubev said on Telegram, without giving further details. “The units of the paramilitary group Wagner are completing their withdrawal from the territory of the Voronezh region”, writes Alexander Goussev, on Telegram the local governor, assuring that everything is going “normally, without incidents”. On Telegram, the Wagner Group posted a video of its forces leaving the Lipetsk region.

Kremlin announces amnesty for Prigozhin

Evguéni Prigojine will go to Belarus announced the Kremlin, which assured that the justice of the country would not prosecute the leader of the Wagner group and the fighters who followed him.

“The criminal case will be dropped against him. He himself will go to Belarus, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the press about the businessman. No one will persecute (the fighters), given their merits at the Ukrainian front. Wagner leaves Rostov

The precise course of the Prigozhin mutiny

Prigozhin calls for an uprising

Evguéni Prigojine accuses, Friday evening, the Russian army of having carried out deadly strikes on the camps of its fighters and calls to rise against the Russian military command. He claims to have 25,000 men and says he wants to lead a "march for justice". He defends himself against any "military coup". The Russian security services (FSB) open an investigation for "call for armed mutiny" and demand the arrest of the head of Wagner.

Wagner's troops enter Russia

Prigozhin claims in the early hours of Saturday (Moscow time) that his troops have entered Russian territory and that he "will go all the way". He assures that his forces, ready to die for "the fatherland" and "to liberate the Russian people", shot down a Russian military helicopter. Moscow, the region of Rostov, neighboring Ukraine, and that of Lipetsk (420 km south of the capital) announce reinforced security measures.

Wagner in RostovAt 6:30 a.m. (Paris time), Yevgeny Prigojine declares having seized the headquarters of the Russian army in Rostov, a key center for the Russian assault against Ukraine, and having taken control of sites military, including an airfield. An "anti-terrorist operation regime" is established in Moscow and its region, a measure which strengthens the powers of the security services.

Putin denounces a "treason"

At 10:10 a.m. (Paris time), during a televised address, Vladimir Putin accuses Prigozhin of having "betrayed" Russia because of its "excessive ambitions", swears not "to let" a new "civil war to occur in Russia and promises "firm" action against the "deadly threat" posed by Wagner's armed rebellion. He admits a "difficult" situation in Rostov.

In the morning, the Russian army is carrying out "combat" operations in the Voronezh region, halfway between Moscow and Rostov, according to local authorities who report a major fire in a fuel depot and report the presence of militiamen belonging to Wagner.

Yevgeny Prigojine replied to Vladimir Putin's speech: "The president was deeply mistaken. We are patriots. No one is going to surrender at the request of the president, the security services or anyone else."

Wagner advances towards Moscow

At 1:30 p.m. (Paris time), we learn that Wagner's fighters entered the Lipetsk region, 420 km south of the capital. An announcement made by the local authorities which confirms the progress of the militia towards Moscow.

The intelligence services expected a Wagner rebellion

According to the New York Times and the Washington Post, US intelligence agencies had known since mid-June that Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigojine was plotting a rebellion against Russian military command. The New York Times writes that “American intelligence officials informed military and administrative officials on Wednesday that Yevgeny Prigozhin (…) was preparing to carry out military action against senior Russian defense officials”. The Washington Post says intelligence agencies were unsure when the rebellion would take place, but they were on high alert for the past two weeks.

An intelligence official said the conflict between the leadership became palpable after Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu ordered on June 10 to force Russian mercenaries to sign contracts with the government, meaning a takeover of the Wagner Group by the Russian state.

According to the Post Vladimir Putin was aware of Prigozhin's intentions.

BACK ON IMMIGRATION AN AGREEMENT

BETWEEN EU STATES ON ASYLUM REFORM

While occupying a disused school in the 16th arrondissement for 77 days, migrants had settled around 8 p.m. on Tuesday June 20, on the Place du Palais royal in Paris, in front of the Council of State. Within three minutes, hundreds of tents had been deployed there. Inside, migrants who have not been recognized as minors by child welfare after a court hearing on June 12 relating to the expulsion of these migrants.

As a Syrian with refugee status in Sweden attacked children in a park in Annecy on Thursday morning, sparking far-right criticism of migration policy, Sweden's EU presidency announced on Thursday evening an agreement on an asylum reform. At the start of the evening, Italy and Greece still shared resistance.

The reform provides for a system of solidarity between Member States in the care of refugees, and an accelerated examination of the asylum applications of certain migrants at the borders, in order to return them more easily to their country of origin or transit. This green light paves the way for talks with the European Parliament, with a view to adopting the reform before the European elections in June 2024. "These are not easy decisions for everyone around the table, but these are historic decisions,” welcomed German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser.

Italy “will not be the reception center for migrants”

Poland and Hungary voted against these proposals, while Bulgaria, Malta, Lithuania and Slovakia abstained, we learned from the Swedish Presidency of the Council of the EU, which led the long and complex negotiations. A little earlier, a dozen member states, including Italy and Greece, had expressed their opposition or their reservations about the proposals on the table. A new compromise text was then drawn up, in order to rally as many people as possible, and in particular the Mediterranean countries, which are the countries through which migrants arrive in the EU.

Italian Minister Matteo Piantedosi showed his satisfaction at having seen “all his proposals” accepted.

“We ruled out the hypothesis that Italy and all member states of first entry would be paid to keep irregular migrants on their territory. Italy will not be the reception center for migrants on behalf of Europe,” he said in a statement.

20,000 euros per asylum seeker

One of the texts approved by the ministers provides for compulsory but “flexible” solidarity within the EU in the care of asylum seekers. Member States would be required to welcome a certain number of these applicants arriving in an EU country subject to migratory pressure, or failing that to make a financial contribution.

The planned financial compensation is around 20,000 euros for each asylum seeker who is not relocated. These sums would be paid into a fund managed by the Commission and intended to finance projects linked to the management of migration.

The other text endorsed by the ministers obliges the Member States to implement an accelerated procedure for examining asylum applications (12 weeks maximum), in centers located at the borders, for migrants who have statistically the least chance to be granted refugee status.

This is the case, for example, of nationals "from Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Senegal, Bangladesh and Pakistan", commented the Belgian Secretary of State for Asylum and Migration.

UKRAINE AT THE ORIGIN OF SABOTAGE

FROM THE NORTH STREAM ACCORDING TO THE CIA ?

At the time, Russia was immediately accused of having caused the three explosions on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in order to put pressure on Ukraine's Western allies by cutting off gas supplies.

However, on Saturday (June 10), the Belgian media De Tijd reported, on the basis of sources close to the case, that several intelligence agencies, including the Belgian agency (ADIV-SGRS), would have received a few months ago CIA information that Ukraine may be responsible for the sabotage.

De Tijd's revelations about kyiv's potential involvement come after those in the Washington Post last Tuesday (June 6). According to the American daily, three months before the sabotage, the administration of Joe Biden had learned that the Ukrainian army had planned a secret attack on the gas pipeline and that the divers who participated in the attack reported directly to the commander in chief of the forces. Ukrainian armies. Therefore, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would have been kept out of the operation. On Wednesday (April 7), he also refuted any Ukrainian participation in this sabotage.

"I don't think our military and our intelligence services did anything like that, otherwise I would like to see evidence," Zelensky said.

The Wall Street Journal also reported on Saturday that the attacks may have been planned in Poland, an allegation that is currently being investigated by Germany.

Belgian Defense Minister Ludivine Dedonder declined to comment on De Tijd's revelations, saying she would "not communicate about the work of the [Belgian] intelligence service or the contacts it has with the partner services,” its spokeswoman said.

To date, the instigators of the sabotage remain unknown, and Russia – which nevertheless denies any responsibility – is still suspected of being at the origin, in particular following the revelations made last April by Nordic media.

According to them, a Russian military program aimed to map offshore wind farms, gas pipelines, power and communication cables in the waters of Denmark, Norway, Finland and Sweden.

Vessels similar to those used in the waters of these countries had been sighted in Belgian and Dutch territorial waters last November. that it could be an intelligence vessel. A documentary made by several Nordic media now seems to confirm these suspicions.

However, Russia denies any involvement in intelligence gathering activities in the North Sea.

HOW TO REBUILD UKRAINE ?

The war may not be over, but the country is already thinking about its reconstruction. The international community will discuss it in a few days, at a conference in London.

More than a year after the start of the Russian offensive, the World Bank has assessed Ukraine's immediate needs at $14 billion to repair the damage caused by the fighting.

In March, the Ukrainian government, the World Bank, the European Commission and the United Nations estimated the reconstruction costs of one year of war (February 24, 2022-February 23, 2023) at 411 billion US dollars. Three months have passed and the bill is still climbing. A sum expected to increase with the continuation of the conflict.

"In today's dollars, the Marshall Plan was about $130 billion to rebuild Europe, including West Germany, after World War II. Estimates for Ukraine are many times that It's considerable," sums up Dominique Arel, holder of the Chair of Ukrainian Studies at the University of Ottawa.

An extraordinary construction site

Ukraine has been in cleaning and rebuilding mode for months. "The largest construction site in the world", headlined the New York Times on February 17. In April, The Guardian claimed that 41 of the 330 bridges destroyed were being rebuilt. Just like 120 kilometers of roads and 900 railway equipment. There are many construction sites in towns like Boutcha and Irpine.

Most of the work remains downstream.

This reconstruction is not just about brick, concrete, glass and steel. Beyond homes, buildings and public service equipment, it will be necessary to rebuild schools, the health system, the computer network... It will be necessary to reconstitute heritage treasures, carry out mine clearance and depollution work.

The most recent count by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) listed more than 8.2 million Ukrainians with a temporary protection visa… only on the European continent.

The economic reconstruction of a country is intimately linked to that of its infrastructure. It is even more concrete for the municipal and regional administrations whose financing goes through taxation.

International effort

The international community and institutions such as the UN, the European Commission, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development are monitoring the situation. Especially since since February 24, 2022, they have invested billions of dollars in the country to keep it running day by day.

International conferences are used to take stock. Thus, on June 21 and 22, London will host the 6th edition of the annual Ukraine Recovery conference). Officials from more than 60 countries and hundreds of heads of major global companies are expected there on Wednesday and Thursday, the British government announced on Saturday.

"The reconstruction of the Ukrainian economy is as important as its military strategy," said British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, opening this meeting where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will speak by videoconference.

But how far will this international aid go ?

Ukraine cannot pay for its own reconstruction, which Germany managed to do quite quickly after the Second World War. Ukraine does not have the same capacity as Germany at the time.

Neither does the West take the bill. “It does not seem to be in the discussions currently, adds the researcher. Moreover, I have not seen a trace or even speeches in which Western leaders have prepared the population for such an extraordinary economic commitment. »

There remains the Russian solution. Since the beginning of the conflict, governments that openly and actively support Ukraine, including Canada, have frozen some 300 billion in assets belonging to the Russian central bank and at least 20 billion in assets belonging to oligarchs.

But before using it, it may be necessary to go through the courts.

THE AFRICAN PEACE PLAN DIFFICULT TO IMPLEMENT ACCORDING TO MOSCOW

The African mediation delegation on Saturday advocated the end of "the war" before Vladimir Putin, formulating proposals deemed "very difficult to implement" by the Kremlin, the day after the rejection of this initiative by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

“War cannot last forever […]. We want this war to end,” said South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, head of the delegation of African mediators, during a meeting with Mr. Putin in Saint Petersburg (northwestern Russia). ).

According to Mr. Ramaphosa, the African peace proposals can be summed up in 10 points, among which a "de-escalation on both sides", the "recognition of the sovereignty" of the countries as recognized by the UN, the "security guarantees" for all parties, the lifting of obstacles to the export of cereals via the Black Sea, the "liberation of prisoners of war", as well as reconstruction.

At the end of the meeting, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described this African plan as "very difficult to implement".

However, "President Putin has expressed interest in examining it," he said, quoted by Russian news agencies.

The delegation included, in addition to Mr. Ramaphosa, three other presidents: Macky Sall (Senegal), Hakainde Hichilema (Zambia) and Azali Assoumani (Comoros), current president of the African Union, as well as Congolese, Ugandan and Egyptian representatives.

Reconstruction

The reconstruction of Ukraine will be at the heart of the conference scheduled for London in the middle of the week and of which this will be the second edition since the start of the Russian invasion, after that which was held last year in Lugano in Switzerland.

"Continue the Dialogue"

Another upcoming meeting is the Russia-Africa summit, scheduled for the end of July in Saint Petersburg and for which African leaders and Mr. Putin affirmed on Saturday “their political will to continue the dialogue”, declared Dmitri Peskov.

"We are open to constructive dialogue with those who want peace based on the principles of justice and taking into account the legitimate interests of the parties," Putin told African leaders.

Africa is hard hit by the increase in food prices and the consequences of the Russian offensive on world trade. South Africa, however, refuses to condemn Russia for its aggression, and is criticized for its closeness to the Kremlin.

Russia, for its part, is trying to attract African leaders to its camp by claiming to stand up as a bulwark against imperialism and by accusing the West of blocking with its sanctions the exports of Russian cereals and fertilizers essential to the Africa.

The African delegation arrived in Russia the day after a trip to Kyiv where its members had, according to the African presidency, "constructive discussions" with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky who, however, rejected their proposals. .

"The threat of missiles and airstrikes remains high throughout Ukraine as the enemy continues to concentrate efforts on the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka axes and intense battles continue," the ministry said in a statement. communicated.

As Kyiv pushes to join NATO as soon as possible, US President Joe Biden has assured him in Washington that Ukraine will not receive preferential treatment for its NATO membership process.

THE FAR RIGHT TAKES UP ITS QUARTERS

IN MAJOR SPANISH CITIES

Big winner of this election against the left of Mr. Sánchez, the PP could need Vox to govern regions. He could also need the support of this party to return to power at the national level if he wins the early legislative elections of July 23 as predicted by the polls.

The PP, credited with an average of 34% of voting intentions against 26% for the Socialists, is in fact not at all guaranteed to obtain an absolute majority in Parliament, and it could need the support of the extreme right to take control of the country. In third position in the polls, the far right is credited with 14% of the polls, just ahead of the radical left (12%).

Right and extreme right associated in several regional capitals

While the municipal councils elected at the end of May are holding their inaugural session on June 17, what has been taking shape for three weeks in the cities won by the People's Party is indeed an alliance, here in broad daylight, there tacit with the far right. The PP, which Alberto Núñez Feijóo has refocused a lot since he took the reins, runs 30 out of 50 provincial capitals, plus the two autonomous enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla on the North African coast.

In fourteen of these regional metropolises, the right holds an absolute majority in the municipal council. But in the other sixteen, this is not the case. In Valladolid, Burgos, Toledo, Ciudad Real and Guadalajara, the PP therefore signed a coalition agreement (People's Party, conservative)-Vox (extreme right) in due form to take or keep the town hall, with the key vice-mayor titles and a sharing of key positions.

The far-right Vox party settled on Saturday, in coalition with the People's Party (conservative) at the head of ten important cities in Spain, an alliance which could be renewed at the national level after the legislative elections next month . In addition to the regional capitals, Santiago Abascal declared having entered 140 municipal majorities, such as in Mostoles in the province of Madrid, or in Elche in that of Alicante. An agreement between the PP and Vox to govern the region of Valencia (East), just over a month before the national elections, has also been reached.

And for this, the local leaders of the PP "have aligned themselves with the positions of the extreme right", underlines the daily El Pais.

In a statement, Vox said it will seek to remove 'ideological' city departments like those dedicated to promoting equality that 'waste' money and have not solved people's 'real problems' . In the local agreements with Vox, any reference to gender has been erased, and measures to combat global warming have been abandoned.

So far, Vox has governed in coalition with the PP only in the region of Castile and Leon. Founded in 2013 by former members of the PP, Vox is the third political force in Parliament.

However, given the maneuvers underway in the regional capitals, it is not impossible that members of Vox, the party led by Santiago Abascal, will enter a government led by the People's Party (PP, right) of Alberto Núñez Feijóo....

DISAPPEARANCE OF RIDER SYLVIO BERLUSCONI INCARNATION OF THE ITALIAN RIGHT

This Monday, Silvio Berlusconi died at San Raffaele Hospital in Milan, Italy, following a serious illness, the daily Corriere della serra announced. Nicknamed "the immortal" for his longevity in politics, the senator and businessman, who has profoundly marked the political landscape of his country, was again admitted on Friday to the San Raffaele hospital in Milan where he was stayed multiple times.

On April 5, the billionaire had already been hospitalized for six weeks in this prestigious establishment to treat a state of weakness linked to a lung infection, but his doctors had revealed that he suffered from chronic leukemia. He had addressed his supporters for the first time in early May, in a video message, from his hospital room, seated behind a desk with the party banner and the Italian flag behind him.

Born on September 29, 1936, Silvio Berlusconi is the eldest of a middle-class Lombard family. His father, Luigi, is an employee of the Rasini bank, of which he will become one of the leaders; his mother, Rosa Bossi, is a housewife. From their union will be born two other children: Maria Antonietta and Paolo. At 12, Silvio entered the Sant'Ambrogio college in Milan, run by the Salesians. The one who was born in Milan in the middle of Fascist Italy was passionate about music, art and antiquity when he was younger.

Silvio Berlusconi undertook two years of study at the Sorbonne, after his maturita (baccalaureate). A law graduate from the University of Milan in 1961, with a dissertation on advertising contracts, he indulged his passion for song at the same time by joining a group, Les Quatre Docteurs. His professional career began in the real estate market in the 1960s.

First in real estate

He carries out his first real estate transaction by building a group of low-cost houses

This first experiment will be followed by the construction of a set of one thousand apartments, then, in the early 1970s, by that of the Milano 2 district, the first Italian new town.

But Silvio Berlusconi is already abandoning the concrete to take an interest in another activity: the press, by becoming, in 1979, the majority shareholder of the daily Il Giornale, and television, whose state gives up the monopoly in 1976.

Then media man

Over the following decades, he founded a multitude of companies in different sectors, including media, construction, finance and insurance. A success that allowed him to be made a Knight of the Order of Labor Merit in 1977 and to be then nicknamed Il Cavaliere. In 1986, he bought the mythical AC Milan, then in the grip of significant financial difficulties. During three decades of presidency, Silvio Berlusconi made the Lombard club a stronghold of European football. A sporting success, symbolized by the five Champions Leagues won in 1989, 1990, 1994, 2003 and 2007.

His company Mediaset, mainly owned by the Fininvest holding company, which includes most Italian television channels, earned him a large part of his fortune and was also a springboard for his political career. and which he will use to serve his political career.

and politician

This began in the mid-1990s with the creation of the Forza Italia party in the aftermath of Operation Clean Hands, which aimed to put an end to the widespread corruption that had affected Italian political life for a long time. If he is hardly worried by the investigations of the operation "Mani pulite" ("clean hands") which will lead to the disappearance of Christian Democracy and the Socialist Party, Silvio Berlusconi adheres to the influential Masonic lodge Propaganda Due (P2), founded by Licio Gelli, declared nostalgic for Mussolini. This secret association makes a point of saving Italy from communism. Silvio Berlusconi rubs shoulders with former ministers, businessmen, former secret service officers.

“Italy is the country I love. It was with these words that Silvio Berlusconi appeared on all his television channels on January 26, 1994, to announce his intention to embark on the campaign for the 1994 legislative elections. He quickly won the parliamentary elections in 1994, allowing him first to become a Member of Parliament, then a month later, to head the Italian government. An experience he would repeat several times over the next 20 years. Silvio Berlusconi will thus find himself at the head of the Council from 2001 until 2006, then from May 2008 until the end of 2011.

And while his political life was in real decline after a 2010 decade marked by several electoral failures and various health problems, the businessman resurfaced in 2022 and regained his seat as senator in the constituency of Lombardy. the tenor of transalpine politics leads his party to the parliamentary elections of 2022, won by the right-wing coalition. However, disagreements quickly appeared with Giorgia Meloni, the new President of the Council, on the subject of the war in Ukraine, Silvio Berlusconi maintaining privileged ties with Vladimir Putin. This will complete the marginalization of the Cavaliere and his party, which is increasingly isolated within the European Parliament.

Several cases, one final conviction

But his multiple mandates are marred by scandals. Accused of corruption, tax evasion, bribery of witnesses or paid sex with minors… These cases tarnish the reputation of the Italian politician and arouse massive protests from public opinion.

The Milanese will forever be associated with the "Rubygate" scandal for which he was finally acquitted in 2014 after a first instance sentence of seven years in prison. A case in which the Cavaliere was suspected of having paid a young girl, then a minor, for sex with her. In this case, Silvio Berlusconi was even accused of having set up a real prostitution network from which he took advantage during "bunga bunga" evenings during which these young women had to provide various services to the businessman, in the basement of his villa, converted into a nightclub.

For more than two decades, Berlusconi multiplies the back and forth in the courts but the overwhelming majority of cases in which he is involved end in dismissals, acquittals or dismissals. Except for the one concerning Mediaset, the television group he headed. Sentenced to four years in prison, he was accused of tax evasion.

The last years of his life seem marked by the obsession to consolidate his heritage by maintaining the union between his five children resulting from his union with Carla Dall'Oglio and the three children conceived with Veronica Lario, born twenty years later, in the 1980s.

Businessman and central figure in Italian political life, he also left his mark on La Botte with his many escapades and legal affairs.

MONTENEGRO AT THE BALLOT AND SUCCESSFUL DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION

Montenegrins are voting in the early legislative elections on Sunday to try to end the political crisis that has undermined their country since the historic defeat three years ago of the training of local veteran Milo Djukanovic, also defeated in the presidential election in April. Two governments have been overthrown by motions of censure since the August 2020 legislative elections in the Balkan country of 620,000 inhabitants.

Since the defeat of Milo Djukanovic's Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), defeated by a motley coalition made up of pro-Russian and pro-Serb groups, among others, no camp has managed to build a stable majority. Montenegro, a member of NATO since 2017 and which has been negotiating its membership of the European Union (EU) since 2010, has since been going from crisis to crisis. A paralysis of the institutions which has hampered in particular its rapprochement with the EU.

In the April presidential election, Jakov Milatovic, a 36-year-old pro-European economist, easily beat Milo Djukanovic, a dominant figure on the Montenegrin political scene for three decades. His training “Europe now!” is well placed to come out ahead in the polls and be a pillar of the next government. “Europe now!”, founded barely a year ago, promises to move Montenegro forward on the European path, to bridge the religious and community divides that divide the country where a third of the inhabitants identify as Serbs.

The party hopes to attract young voters eager to see new faces in charge. The popularity of the PES (The new movement Europe now “Pokret Evropa sad”, PES), created by the two young economists, Jakov Milatovic and Milojko Spajic, respectively Ministers of Economy and Finance of the government “of experts” put in place at the end of 2020, is explained by the sharp increases in salaries and retirement pensions decided by its two leaders.

The three years of “transition” have indeed not been smooth sailing. Became Prime Minister in April 2022, Dritan Abazovic lost the confidence of Parliament a few months later, continuing for more than a year to lead a "technical" executive.

Even if this uncomfortable political situation has blocked several important reforms, Dritan Abazovic has nevertheless managed to score important blows against the cancer of organized crime eating away at the country, attacking the mafia drug clans, but also those who have long been their protectors within the police and the judiciary: several prosecutors have been dismissed, some even imprisoned, as well as many police leaders. If the "party-state" put in place by the DPS, with many mafia relays, has not yet been completely destroyed, the dynamic is engaged.

If the PES seems assured of dominating the election on Sunday, and should be able to form a coalition government, many challenges still await Montenegro,

Starting with those of the fight against organized crime, still far from being won, and a process of European integration that has been stalled for years, but the small country has undeniably turned a page in its history.

UNDERGROUND CHINESE POLICE STATIONS

 IN UK AND USA

The Foreign Office "notified the Chinese Embassy that any function relating to such 'police stations' in the UK was unacceptable and that they should not operate under any circumstances", said the Secretary of State to Security Tom Tugendhat in a written statement to Parliament released on Tuesday.

In response, Chinese authorities promised to shut them down, according to the secretary of state's statement. The presence of such antennas has been mentioned in the United Kingdom but also in France or the United States, but China has always denied their existence. The UK Home Office and London police had launched initial investigations after human rights group Safeguard Defenders documented the existence of the places last year.

There would be three or even four in the United Kingdom, according to Mr. Tugendhat. He said police visited every suspicious location and "no illegal activity" was identified.

"We believe that the police and public oversight has had an effect," said the Secretary of State. "However, these 'police stations' were established without our permission and however low the level of administrative activity carried out, they will have worried and intimidated those who have left China to find safety and freedom in the UK." , he adds.

From the golden age to the rotten age

In April, The Times newspaper published an article about Lin Ruiyou, a Chinese businessman with connections to the British Conservative Party, running a food delivery business in the borough of Croydon, south London and operating also as an undeclared Chinese police station.

The Chinese Embassy in London then claimed to have already repeated "repeatedly that there are no so-called police stations abroad" and criticized the dissemination of "false accusations".

After the "golden age" desired by Prime Minister David Cameron in 2015, relations between London and Beijing have deteriorated markedly in recent years:

Due in particular to the repression of the anti-democracy movement in Hong Kong, a former British colony, the fate of the Uyghur Muslim minority and suspicions of espionage relating to the telecom equipment manufacturer Huawei.

WAR IN UKRAINE HYDROELECTRIC POWER STATION DESTROYED

The Kakhovka dam, taken at the start of the Russian offensive in Ukraine, was destroyed on Tuesday, June 6. Moscow and kyiv reject responsibility for the attack on this structure, which notably supplies water to the Crimean peninsula. The area is flooded and residents being evacuated.

At the heart of strategic issues since the start of the war, the Nova Kakhovka hydroelectric dam located in territory occupied by Moscow was, according to Ukraine, blown up by Russian forces overnight from Monday to Tuesday. Russia, for its part, denounced an act of "deliberate sabotage" by Kiev, considering that one of Ukraine's objectives was to "deprive Crimea of ​​water", a Ukrainian peninsula annexed in 2014 by Russia. Ukrainian, "it is physically impossible to blow up [the dam] in one way or another from the outside, with bombardments", the version put forward by Moscow to explain this destruction in the night.

"Around 2 a.m. there were a number of repeated strikes on the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station, which destroyed the valves. As a result, water from the Kakhovka reservoir began to flow uncontrollably downstream “, declared, according to the Russian agency TASS, the mayor of the city of Nova Kakhovka, Vladimir Leontiev.

One of the largest hydroelectric dams in the country

The dam is located on the Dnieper River, upstream from Kherson. Built partly of concrete and earth, the structure is 16 meters high and 3,850 meters long. It retains more than 18 million cubic meters of water in the artificial Kakhovka reservoir, which is 240 kilometers long and up to 23 kilometers wide. It is one of the largest infrastructures of this type in Ukraine. It also includes a hydroelectric plant (with a power of 334 megawatts (MW) according to the operating company Ukrhydroenergo), and a road bridge, now destroyed.

Built in 1956 during the Soviet period, the purpose of the dam was both to regulate the course of the river on its last, much narrower stretch, and to send water into the North Crimean Canal, whose adduction is sheltered by the structure. Currently, millions of cubic meters flow from the lake and into the southern part of the Dnieper, on the banks of which dozens of villages are built. On both sides, these could be engulfed by the gradual rise of the water in the hours to come. According to local authorities installed by Moscow, the water rose to a level between 2 and 4 meters.

24 villages already flooded, 80 threatened

According to Ukrainian Interior Minister Igor Klymenko, 24 villages were already flooded around 1 p.m., and a thousand people had already been evacuated. "About 16,000 people on the right bank of the region are in the critical zone," said the head of the region's military administration, Oleksandr Prokudin in the morning. "About a thousand" civilians were evacuated from the area. . “The Ministry of the Interior has already evacuated about a thousand people.

In Kherson, about 1,300 people were evacuated at 3 p.m. (2 p.m. in Paris), following the explosion of the Kakhovka dam, the national police announced on Tuesday. "According to preliminary information, 13 localities on the right bank of the Dnieper and more than 260 houses were flooded," she said on Telegram. The evacuation continues,” he told Ukrainian television.

Safety at the Zaporizhia power plant

The dam, which held back more than 18 million cubic meters of water, also allows the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant located 150 kilometers upstream - in the "energy capital of Ukraine, Enerhodar - to supply itself with water from cooling.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), however, tempers the risks. On Twitter, she said her experts are "closely monitoring the situation" after seeing "reports of damage", and announces for the moment that there are "no immediate security risks. nuclear plant". An opinion shared by nuclear risk specialists. On the other hand, the explosion will complicate the possible restarting of the Energodar nuclear power plant, which before the war represented 6,000 MW of installed power and 23% of Ukraine's electricity production...

The dam breach added a complex new element to Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine, now in its 16th month, as Ukrainian forces were widely seen as moving forward with an expected counter-offensive since a long time.

UNDERSTANDING THE WORRYING CONFLICT

 IN KOSOVO

While tensions between Serbia and Kosovo have been recurrent since Kosovo's self-proclaimed independence in 2008 – still unrecognized by Belgrade – the threat of a new war in Europe is real.

A regional crisis that never ends.

On Friday (26 May), the situation in Serb-majority northern Kosovo deteriorated after ethnic Albanian mayors, elected after the massive resignation of Serbian civil servants at the end of 2022, took office in four municipalities in the north.

The majority Serbs in four towns in northern Kosovo boycotted the municipal elections in April at the call of Srpska lista, their main party, very close to Belgrade. As a result, Albanian mayors were elected despite a very low turnout of 3.5%.

Serbs in the north of the country do not accept the new mayors elected with the lowest turnout in the country's history and have tried to prevent them from entering town halls. On Monday, the situation worsened considerably and dozens of injuries were reported.

Ignoring insistent calls from the European Union and the United States for restraint, the Kosovar government enthroned these city councilors last week, which set fire to the powder.

Serb protesters then gathered in front of the town halls concerned to demand the departure of the Albanian mayors and the Kosovar police forces, whose presence in the region has long aroused their anger. These demonstrators tried to force the entrance door of the town hall of Zvecan, but were repelled by the Kosovar forces. KFor then tried to separate the two sides before starting to disperse the more violent protesters. The protesters then responded by throwing stones, bottles and Molotov cocktails at the soldiers.

Nineteen Hungarian and eleven Italian soldiers were injured in the clashes, KFor said in a statement on Tuesday, adding that they suffered in particular from "fractures and burns caused by improvised incendiary explosive devices". "Three Hungarian soldiers were injured by firearms," ​​according to the same source. At least 52 people were injured in the ranks of the Serb demonstrators, three of them seriously, said Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic.

Why did the Serbs boycott these municipal elections ?

Pristina organized this election to fill the vacuum left by the massive resignation of the Serbs in November from the common local institutions. Hundreds of Serb police officers integrated into the Kosovo police, as well as judges, prosecutors and other officials, had left their posts to protest against a decision by Pristina, now suspended, to ban Serbs living in Kosovo from using license plates. registration issued by Belgrade.

"Each time, it's the same blow: Kosovo multiplies the vexations against the Serbs", judge Alexis Troude, professor of geopolitics at the University of Versailles-Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) and Balkan specialist. "Pristina has never respected the 2013 agreements and regularly tries to establish its authority over northern Kosovo, causing tension with the Serbian population," adds the specialist.

The 2013 agreements not respected

The Serbian minority numbers around 120,000 people – out of 1.8 million inhabitants – largely loyal to Belgrade, a third of whom live in northern Kosovo, near the border with Serbia, which supports them financially. The other members of the minority are dispersed in about ten enclaves.

A 2013 agreement providing for the creation of an association of ten "municipalities", which includes the four towns where the boycott of the municipal elections took place and where the Serb minority lives, remained a dead letter. Belgrade and Pristina do not agree on their competences. Many Albanian Kosovars fear the creation of a parallel government controlled by Belgrade.

700 additional peacekeepers in northern Kosovo

On Tuesday (30 May), Serbs continued their demonstrations in four northern municipalities.

At the same time, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that 700 soldiers would be deployed to Kosovo in the coming days as part of the NATO Mission in Kosovo, KFOR. 700 additional troops in Kosovo within a few days and to place additional forces on alert. These are prudent measures. NATO and KFOR have the forces and capabilities to fulfill the UN mandate,” he said.

EU and USA call for calm

The move comes after US Ambassador Jeff Hovenier said Kosovo's participation in the NATO-led Defender 2023 exercise, which is taking place across the region, would be canceled as a "consequence" for Pristina.

“We have asked the Prime Minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti, to take measures to reduce tensions in the north. He did not respond to these requests. We are in the process of analyzing what our next actions will be,” said Mr. Hovenier.

China and Russia support Belgrade

As Westerners try to calm things down, China and Russia have voiced support for Serbia.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning blamed the violence on Kosovo's failure to respect Serbian political rights and said he supported Serbia's efforts "to protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity". "We oppose the unilateral actions of Kosovo's temporary self-governing institutions," Mao told a press conference, referring to the institutions in Pristina.

"We call on the West to finally stop its false propaganda and stop blaming the incidents in Kosovo on desperate Serbs who are trying to defend their legitimate rights and freedom through peaceful and unarmed means," the ministry said. Russian Foreign Affairs. Russian Ambassador Aleksandar Boshan-Kharchenko added: "Moscow is following the development of the situation with the utmost seriousness, and we understand that this type of situation can cause a serious crisis or even an explosion in the whole region".

Since the start of Russian aggression in Ukraine, Serbia has refused to apply most EU sanctions against Moscow or to align itself more broadly with the European and Western foreign policy line.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has urged the leaders of Kosovo and Serbia to immediately defuse tensions following clashes in northern Kosovo which he described as "unacceptable".

Not give in to the extremists ?

In Pristina, Prime Minister Albin Kurti remained a firm believer that newly elected mayors are legitimate and must be allowed to do their job. He called the protesters extremists and said they did not represent the Serbian people.

“Yesterday, it was finally proven to us […] that we were confronted with masked far-right groups, who vandalize, attack and burn everything they do not consider Serbian, and who exalt nationalist and chauvinist symbols , such as the four-pointed cross, the S's and the Z's of Russian aggression in Ukraine,” he said. He was referring to the recent appearance of these symbols in the north of the country.

Petar Petkovic, chief negotiator for Serbia under the Brussels-facilitated dialogue, told local media that Mr Kurti was trying to provoke a war in order to avoid his obligations under various EU agreements, in particular the Association of Serbian Municipalities.

“[Albin] Kurti is someone who wants to present himself as a little [Volodymyr] Zelensky, but in fact he is a little Hitler who wants to expel the Serbian people and shoot at the Serbian people, the State of Serbia will not allow it to do so,” Petković stressed. He added that the Serb demonstration was "peaceful" and that the riot would not have happened if KFOR had not used force against them. “We don't need to come into conflict with NATO, but KFOR's mandate is to protect the Serbian people,” he concluded. Meanwhile, opposition parties in Serbia have called on the international community to “reason with” Mr. Kurti to avoid further violence.

The question of the independence of Kosovo proclaimed in 2008

The battle of the mayors in fact touches on the question of the independence of Kosovo proclaimed in 2008, almost a decade after a war which left around 13,000 dead, the majority of them Albanian Kosovars.

For Kosovar Prime Minister Albin Kurti, sovereignty is intangible and nothing can be discussed without recognizing the reality of independence. But many Serbs consider Kosovo their national and religious cradle, like Serbian tennis player Novak Djokovic, who wrote on France Télévisions on Monday after his victory in the first round of the Roland- Garros, "Kosovo is the heart of Serbia, stop the violence".

Kosovo is recognized by a hundred countries, including most Westerners, and recently by Israel. Belgrade, on the other hand, has never admitted independence, no more than Russia and China, which deprives Pristina of a place in the UN. Five members of the European Union are also on this line.

POLITICAL SCANDALS MIXING

URSULA VON DER LEYEN FOR THE ENTRY

OF BULGARIA IN THE EURO ZONE

In this recording revealed by Radostin Vassilev, an MP for the centrist Let's Keep the Change party going, former Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov relates to party colleagues a conversation he allegedly had with Ursula von der Leyen on May 21 regarding the entry of Bulgaria in the euro area and the Schengen area.

“[…] I asked him: what are our chances of being accepted [in the Schengen area and in the euro zone]. She replied: “For Schengen, you have great chances. For the Eurozone, you have to figure out how to get around the rules. In other words, how do you comply with the rules”. And I was like, 'Can we have [an estimate of] inflation minus the effect [of the war] in Ukraine,' and she was like, 'Listen to me, we'll try to help you ’” Mr. Petkov related.

Bend the rules? !

In the airlock for almost three years for this country with widespread corruption

Bulgaria is the poorest country in the EU, of which it has been a member since 2007. Widespread corruption in the Balkan country for years has always blocked its membership of the euro. According to the Minister of Finance, "no compromise was possible" in Parliament precisely to vote on texts on money laundering, the powers of the central bank or even bankruptcies.

Placed under a strict austerity regime in the wake of a serious economic crisis in 1996-1997, Bulgaria integrated in 2020 the banking regulatory framework of the euro zone and the ERM II mechanism, a fixed parity system. A state must stay there for at least two years before being admitted to the euro zone.

Croatia became the twentieth member of the euro zone in January, seven years after Lithuania joined. The country had expressed its desire to adopt the single currency as soon as it joined the EU in 2013. Like Bulgaria, five other countries in the antechamber of the single currency (Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, Romania, Sweden) n have not obtained the backing of Europe, but they have no very short-term membership project.

On Saturday (27 May), the European Commission confirmed that Ms von der Leyen and the former Bulgarian Prime Minister had had a conversation about it and "discussed important issues on Bulgaria's agenda, including the entry of Bulgaria in the euro zone and in the Schengen area”.

The president of the European executive would have reaffirmed her support for Bulgaria's accession to Schengen, according to the Commission. “There is a well-structured process for joining the euro zone, which applies to each country. The Commission's job is to support the implementation of the [membership] criteria. It is obvious that the rules must be respected, ”continues the executive, according to Radio Bulgaria (BNR).

The strategy of the Let's continue the change party revealed

The recording made public the strategy of the party Let's continue the change, which was to be implemented after the election of a government with the support of Boyko Borissov, founder of the centre-right party Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria ( GERB).

Leaders of Keeping Up the Change point in particular to a state purge of personnel close to President Rumen Radev, GERB, as well as employees suspected of working for the Russian intelligence services.

The formation of a government threatened

Prior to the disclosure of the recordings, the Continuing Change — Democratic Bulgaria coalition had reached an unprecedented agreement with GERB to form a government. For the first nine months, Nikolay Denkov (Let's continue the change) was to take over the post of Prime Minister, then he was to be replaced by Mariya Gabriel (GERB).

However, after the recordings were released, the GERB announced that it was freezing negotiations with Keeping Up the Change until it received assurances that the future government would uphold the principles of the rule of law.

A TRIUMPH IN OPTICAL ILLUSION FOR THE UNBREAKABLE TURKISH PRESIDENT ERDOGAN ?

Despite a high turnout of 85%, center-left opponent Kemal Kiliçdaroglu was unable to bring down Erdogan. The loser, with a very honorable score in a context where the dice were heavily stacked against him, admitted his defeat. But he also said that this campaign had been “one of the most unfair in years”, in particular with the enormous inequality of means between the two camps which faced each other.

Why did the majority of Turks elect Erdogan despite a deteriorating economy and now chronic hyperinflation – a situation that would likely bring down any government in a democratic country? How did Erdogan win the elections?

A free but unfair election

The presidential election was certainly free, insofar as the political parties were able to put forward candidates on their own and to campaign. Parties also had the right to have representatives at each polling station to ensure that ballots were correctly counted. Finally, voters were free to vote. However, the election was far from fair.

First, a potential rival in the race, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, was sentenced last December to more than two years in prison for “insulting public figures”. The popular Imamoglu had above all made the mistake of inflicting on Erdogan's party a rare defeat in the 2019 municipal elections in Istanbul. Polls had shown that if he had run for president, he could have won against Erdogan by a comfortable margin. Some argue that Imamoglu's conviction was politically motivated. Be that as it may, Imamoglu being out of the game, the opposition had to rally behind Kiliçdaroglu, the weakest of all the high profile candidates.

In addition, Erdogan also exercises an almost generalized influence on the Turkish media, through Fahrettin Altun, head of media and communication at the presidential palace, and has taken the opportunity to intervene very often. The opposition leader, on the other hand, received minimal airtime, and when he appeared in the media, he was portrayed as an unfit leader to govern the country. Altun not only controlled traditional television and print media, but also social media.

Everything that surrounds the election, therefore, the general conditions of democracy – the banned or marginalized opposition media, the forced absence of several political actors, disqualified, even thrown into prison by a justice “at orders”, censorship on the Internet, etc. – would make the Turkish political landscape look more like a "democracy" (portmanteau word formed from "democracy" and "dictatorship"), according to some observers.

And the question remains open as to whether this new re-election of Erdogan sounds the death knell for democracy in Turkey for a long time, or whether the process could one day be reversed. Didn't the opposition speak this year of "last chance elections"?

Massive support from religious voters

The indestructible Turkish president has won over a conservative electorate who continue to trust him despite an unprecedented economic crisis and 105% inflation.

First of all the call to vote in favor of Erdogan launched by Sinan Ogan, who came third in the first round of the presidential election two weeks ago, with 5.2% of the vote played in his favor.

But above all it was Erdogan's conservative and religious voters for whom the outgoing president is a religious hero and a savior who voted for him. Turkey's religious population has long suffered persecution in the name of secularism. For them, Kiliçdaroglu and his Republican People's Party symbolize this persecution. Although Kiliçdaroglu abandoned the party's strict secular policies, these voters never forgave him for preventing Muslim women from wearing the headscarf in educational institutions and public institutions, and for holding religion to the fore. away from public life and politics for decades.

Turkey's conservative and religious right sees Erdogan as a world leader and a hero who fought against ill-intentioned forces, both inside and outside, to make Turkey great again.

And after the elections?

A few years ago, Erdogan promised a renaissance of Turkey by 2023, the date of the hundredth anniversary of the founding of the Republic. Turkey was supposed to enter the top 10 global economies by then. However, Turkey barely makes it into the top 20.

The economy has experienced a significant downturn over the past three years. The value of the Turkish lira fell, leading to a dollar-based economy. Reviving the economy and restoring purchasing power to the population are among its priorities.

A felicitated but ambiguous partner

Congratulated from all sides abroad, Erdogan finds himself at the head of a "courted" country. Congratulations poured in the next morning, Monday, including from countries with which Turkey has very difficult relations. At the official level, almost everyone rushed to recognize the victory of the strong man of 'Ankara, and hope to work fruitfully with it: Putin praises 'independent foreign policy'; Westerners "the ally with whom we must deepen relations"; the Taliban hope for the advancement of political Islamism. Erdogan, he wants internationally, to be desired.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Turkey wants to be a crossroads, a pivot around which everything revolves, between Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East and Russia. In foreign policy, Erdogan will continue to try to make Turkey a regional power independent of NATO, the European Union and the United States. He is likely to continue to strengthen Turkey's ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which worries the country's Western allies.

All this, in a very difficult domestic socio-economic context in Turkey, even though the country's economic difficulties could also push Erdogan to become more conciliatory with the Europeans, in the Mediterranean or the Black Sea, for maritime trade. Turkey, for example, aspires to become an energy hub, for transport (oil pipelines, gas pipelines), but also for production, with offshore soundings in the eastern Mediterranean, which have led to the militarization of the sea and tensions with Greece.

A triumph, but for how long?

This is Erdogan's last term, according to the Turkish Constitution, and it is possible that it will be cut short. The 69-year-old president has numerous health problems. He is more and more physically fragile, he has trouble walking and his speech is often jerky. In the years to come, his health could deteriorate...

Although this country of 85 million inhabitants is experiencing a certain political stability for the moment, does the country not risk experiencing economic, social and political unrest in the near future ?

FRANCO-GERMAN FRIENDSHIP

COMPROMISED BY NUCLEAR

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire and German Economy Minister Robert Habeck addressed the parliamentarians, saying their views were very different.

Nuclear energy should not be considered a renewable energy source, said Economy Minister Robert Habeck, amid the current disagreement over the revised renewable energy directive. His counterpart Bruno Le Maire called nuclear energy a "red line" for France.

When it comes to energy policy collaboration, Germany and France are “moving on their own,” Habeck said, summarizing the two countries' position on the matter.

“It would be a total misunderstanding if we assumed that because we work in depth and in confidence, the consensus is always there. I would say it's the exact opposite,” Mr. Habeck told the plenary.

Last week, the French government caused a lot of noise after blocking the approval of the revised EU Renewable Energy Directive, which sets minimum levels for energy production from renewable sources.

Approval was mostly seen as a formal step, since negotiations between the European Parliament and member states had already been concluded.

However, France wants to obtain additional guarantees: the country wants the low-carbon hydrogen produced by nuclear energy to be deducted from its renewable energy targets.

The German government considers nuclear energy to be separate from renewable energy and has insisted on maintaining the compromise that was previously agreed, Habeck said.

“Mr. Robert knows that nuclear policy is an absolute red line for France,” said Mr. Le Maire, adding “it is about our [energy] sovereignty.”

The timing of a new attempt to pass the legislation depends on France.

NATO THINKS BIGGER IN ITS MECHANISMS

OF DEFENSE

Deployments in the Baltics and Poland

NATO members are now considering increasing deployments in the Baltics and Poland to brigade size, which would mean adding thousands more troops "where and when needed".

Military equipment, which is long and complicated to transport, is prepositioned in the east as part of this plan. Exercises like "Spring storm" are intensifying to help allied forces communicate better, work together and know the terrain.

Airborne assault of American troops, night landing of British Marines, parachuting of French commandos: in Estonia, on the eastern flank of NATO, the countries of the Alliance are training in the shadow of the war led by Russia against Ukraine.

Concretely, Great Britain, which leads the NATO battle group in Estonia, will keep troops on standby in their home bases to reinforce the approximately 1,000 British and French soldiers present on the ground.

The message is clear. “It indicates that we can deploy very quickly in a very short time,” explains Lieutenant-Colonel Edouard Bros, commander of the French deployment in Estonia, whose forces are taking part in the “Spring storm” exercise.

"This is an essential change: an additional layer of capabilities to reinforce the force in place before the outbreak of conflict," said British Brigadier General Giles Harris, NATO Deployment Commander in Estonia.

"This change must make the alliance fit for large-scale operations to defend every inch of its territory," US General Christopher Cavoli, NATO's supreme commander in Europe, said this month.

“Collective defense has again become the most important task and we need to get ourselves in order,” says Kristjan Mae, head of the policy planning department at the Estonian Ministry of Defence.

A force of 300,000 soldiers

While Estonia seems happy with this model, its neighbour, Lithuania, wants to have additional troops permanently on the ground and is still discussing with its main partner, Germany, how to obtain them. These deployments reinforce the armies of the countries on the front line and constitute the tip of NATO's forward defense. Finland's - and eventually Sweden's - membership will help strengthen its eastern flank.

More detailed plans must be approved by leaders in Vilnius. They specify how the alliance would defend each region in the event of an attack, with the number of forces, the countries of origin and the duty stations. NATO wants to have a force of 300,000 soldiers ready to be deployed within 30 days.

All these new deployments will inevitably require money, resources and forces. The question is whether the allies are ready to put their hands in their pockets. Before Vilnius, NATO members are negotiating a new commitment to increase defense spending as a percentage of gross domestic product.

Only seven members of the alliance have reached the 2% target set for 2024 and the minimum target for Vilnius will be to turn this 2% into a floor rather than a ceiling. Estonia, which has never ceased to regard Russia as an existential threat, wants to see its allies commit to spending 2.5% of their GDP on defense and wants the new defense strategies to become operational as soon as possible.

"It's one thing to have good plans on paper. Another is to make them executable and achievable," Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said during the "Spring Storm" exercise. "That's the challenge for all of us."

RUSSIANS ANNOUNCE CONTROL OF BAKHMUT

While the Ukrainian army and the mercenaries of the paramilitary group Wagner, supported by units of the regular Russian army, have been fighting over control of this small town in Donetsk oblast since last August, the latter seem about to win. Moscow claimed on Saturday evening the full capture of the city of Bakhmout, the epicenter of the fighting in eastern Ukraine and the scene of the longest and bloodiest battle in the country since the Russian assault, in February 2022.

This Saturday, Yevgueni Prigojine, the head of Wagner, declared in a message published on the instant messaging application Telegram that his men would have seized Bakhmout "at noon", adding "we took the whole city, house by house . From Bakhmout, Yevgeny Prigojine – in conflict with the military hierarchy in Moscow – pointed out that the capture of the city had taken “224 days” and that there were “only Wagner here”, no regular troops from the army. Russian army.

According to him, his group will withdraw from the city from May 25 and leave its defense to the regular army, remaining available after rotation and training for future operations from Moscow.

That same evening, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a statement congratulating Wagner and the soldiers of the regular army who gave them their support for the completion of "Operation to Liberate Artyomovsk", the name Bakhmut Soviet.

This is not the first time that the Ukrainian and Russian governments have disputed control of the city through press releases: last April, after his men seized the town hall of Bakhmout, Yevgueni Prigojine assured that it, "from a legal point of view", was in the hands of the Russian forces.

“Ruins and dead Russians”

An assertion that seemed to have been confirmed the next day by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Hiroshima, Japan: “Bahmut is only in our hearts, he said. There's nothing left there […] except ruins, and dead Russians. »

But where this declaration had then been greeted with mockery from the Ukrainian general staff, it would seem that the announcement made on May 20 by Yevgueni Prigojine is more credible: indeed, according to Kiev, the situation on the ground would be “ critical", and the Ukrainian army would only control "certain industrial installations" and residential buildings.

If the city had indeed come under Russian control, it would put an end to a ten-month battle, considered by some observers to be one of the bloodiest of the 21st century. Quoted by the BBC last March, Western officials estimated Russian losses in Bakhmout at between 20,000 and 30,000 people, killed or injured.

The conflict in Ukraine escalates

The Russian claim came during a surprise visit by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Hiroshima, Japan, for the G7 summit, where he was to meet his US counterpart Joe Biden.

The latter, after having paved the way for future deliveries of American-built F-16 fighter jets to help Ukraine "defend itself" against Russia, met with Mr. Zelensky on Sunday in Hiroshima (Japan). Two days after an announcement paving the way for the delivery of F-16 fighter jets to kyiv, the President of the United States promised new American weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. These new shipments will include “ammunition, artillery, armored vehicles,” Joe Biden said.

But the delivery of F-16 fighter jets to kyiv raises questions. “The question revolves around crossing the Russian border. The purpose of combat aviation is to bring fire to the enemy. However, there is a political obstacle here”, analyzes an expert on France 24 “Not to cross the Russian border, it would be to make a very limited use of this type of armament. Flying F-16s only in the Ukrainian sky would be like putting birds in a cage”, summarizes the specialist in military matters. Asked again Monday about the possibility of supplying American F-16s to Ukraine, John Kirby, the spokesman for the National Security Council at the White House, had reaffirmed no later than Monday May 15 the opposition of Washington which seemedwant to maintain a defensive strategy in Ukrainian skies.

The two camps are now awaiting a major counter-offensive announced by the Ukrainian authorities, backed by Western arms deliveries.

FROM ELECTIONS IN TURKIYE TO INTERNATIONAL ISSUES

After 20 years of reign, the "sultan of modern times" is more fragile than ever. The Turks penalized him for his role in the collapse of the economy and his management - much criticized - of the deadly earthquakes of February.

Yesterday, the youth vote weighed in the balance. They are 6.4 million first-time voters (out of 64 million voters) born and raised under Erdogan's reign. A generation that the reis failed to transform, as he had promised, into 'a pious generation'".

The presidential election of 2023 is certainly played on economic issues and the ability of candidates to stop the inflation that is undermining the country. But international issues make this election an event that goes beyond the national framework. The outcome of these presidential elections could indeed have an impact on Turkey's foreign policy.

Put Turkey, a military power, back in the center of the map

Despite the economic and political difficulties that the Turkish state has been going through for a few years, it is interesting to see that the foreign policy pursued by Erdogan since he came to power has continued to follow the objective of putting Turkey back at the center of the map. A bridge between Europe and Asia and a true crossroads of the eastern Mediterranean, Ankara has many assets that make it essential on the European, Asian, Middle Eastern scene, and to a lesser extent, on the African scene. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, over time, has proven to be a skilled diplomat, using his country's central geographical position. A link between Europe and the Middle East, in direct contact with the war in Syria, in discussion with the Gulf countries, in mediation on the war in Ukraine. He talks to Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping while being at the head of NATO's second army, in fact a valuable ally of the United States. His departure would cast a shadow of uncertainty over many issues.

In addition, a rising military power with military expenditure of 15.48 billion dollars (i.e. 2.1% of its GDP), Turkey has a very active defense industry, which has mainly made itself known with MALE drones Bayraktar TB-2. The embargo put in place by France and Germany on the sale of arms to Turkey in 2019 has pushed the country to improve its strategic autonomy. It now aims to produce 100% of its weapons. In 2021, Ankara produces 70% of its weaponry and begins to carve out a place for itself among the major arms exporters. The Turkish state intends, among other things, to produce a national fighter, the TF-X, but also an anti-aircraft defense system, the SIPER. Three Turkish companies are also now among the 100 largest arms companies in the world.

In addition to a strategic geographical location, Turkey has adopted a strategy of influence , based both on "Turkish-style" pan-Islamism and on arms exports, which gradually seems to be making its mark. evidence within the Turkish strategic environment.

An ambiguous role on the European scene

Ankara, under the presidency of Erdogan, is characterized by its particularly ambiguous role on the European scene: while Turkey is a candidate for the EU and a member of NATO, it has gradually moved away from Western countries since the lockdown country's policy started in 2016, and makes it a point of honor to maintain close relations with Russia. This ambiguity can be seen above all through its position on the relaunch of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 by serving as an intermediary to circumvent international sanctions against Moscow. Turkey is playing a balancing act here. It delivers Bayraktar drones to Ukraine, while opposing sanctions against Moscow. A position that even allowed him to sponsor an agreement between the two belligerents to let Ukrainian cereals out through the Black Sea. Even if the Turkish state seems to be playing a murky game between the two belligerents, it ultimately strives to exploit its position of "balance" between two poles of power - one centered around the European Union and the another centered around Moscow - in order to chart its own course and eventually become a regional power.

Recep Erdogan tempers, as much as possible. But in the context of the presidential election on May 14, 2023, his opponent Kemal Kiliçdaroglu will not necessarily be able to maintain the balance. It will be more complicated because with Erdogan, Russia had only one interlocutor.

If the opposition wins, there will be several. The opposition is a team of six very different political currents. And the candidate behind whom they lined up promises a collegial presidency to break with the verticality of Recep Erdogan.

A thorn in the side of NATO?

The war in Ukraine has also revealed Turkey's influence within NATO. Finland and Sweden, which until then wanted to stay away from the organization, have applied. Ankara finally agreed to join Finland, while letting Stockholm wait. Recep Erdogan is asking Sweden to extradite sympathizers he considers to be “PKK terrorists”. He wanted to show [his electorate] that his country is a country that counts in international organizations. The signal he sends is that of a president who does not jeopardize the safety of his citizens like that.

Within the Atlantic Alliance, Turkey is the second largest army behind that of the United States. A country with which the relationship has been ambiguous since Ankara opted for the Russian S-400 missile system to the detriment of its American equivalent. The United States responded by refusing to sell them F-35 fighter jets.

A subject of contention which could quickly calm down with the arrival of Kemal Kiliçdaroglu in power.

The end of a stormy relationship with the European Union?

Another tense relationship is that of Turkey with the European Union. Troublesome folders won't disappear in the blink of an eye. Recep Erdogan will probably continue to play the balance of power. As for his opponent, if he plans to calm the relationship, he still risks suffering from the tensions left as a legacy.

It plans to modify the penal code, protect freedom of expression and freedom of the press. Giving pledges to the West would give Turkey a better image, which would eventually attract foreign investors. In turn, to put the customs union project with the EU back on the table. And why not to offer more flexible visa conditions for Turkish youth eager for Europe. The challenge will be to convince Brussels, which is no longer as open as it used to be, of the interest of a rapprochement with Ankara.

On the other hand, we should not expect a change of foot on Cyprus or Syria. These are security issues, regardless of the power in place. The majority of Turks feel threatened by what is happening in Syria.

A possible normalization in the eastern Mediterranean

With the economic crisis that Turkey is undergoing, Ankara needs stability with its neighbors. After a period of tension in the eastern Mediterranean, relations with Greece are tending to normalize. Recep Erdogan and Kemal Kiliçdaroglu would go in the same direction. It must be said that the earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria in February helped calm things down. Athens immediately gave its support which was appreciated and noticed. Exploration vessels flying the Turkish flag are also less aggressive in the area in an attempt to get their hands on the important gas resources.

Turkey has therefore succeeded in securing a place of choice in its strategic environment. The strengthening of its military capabilities, the dazzling growth of its defense industry, but above all its great ambitions should enable it to become, in the long term, a power of regional scope.

However, the country still faces many challenges, especially domestically: the poor state of the Turkish economy, aggravated by the two earthquakes, requires fundamental reforms which will undoubtedly vary depending on the candidate who wins the presidential elections , but also of the party which will carry the ballot of the legislative elections.

A change at the head of the country after more than twenty years of governance by the AKP party could have a considerable impact on this state with great ambitions, which until then used its ambiguous relations to gain power.

"But the balance of power is never far away. It is even the hallmark of Turkish diplomacy in recent years: the lack of clarity while ensuring a certain stability."

CHARLES III AND CAMILLA CROWNS

BETWEEN TRADITION AND MODERNITY

Charles III and Queen Camilla were officially crowned on Saturday May 6, 2023 at Westminster Abbey, then returned to Buckingham Palace in the Gold State Coach, a golden carriage used at each coronation, and the two sovereigns then greeted the crowd from the palace balcony.

King Charles III and Queen Camilla, accompanied by working members of the royal family, stepped out onto the balcony of Buckingham Palace on Saturday to greet tens of thousands of people gathered for their coronation.

Wearing a crown and in ceremonial dress, the king and queen were surrounded in particular by the heir to the throne, William, with his wife, Kate, and their children, as well as Anne and Edward, brother and sister of the sovereign. They attended a flypast, the duration of which was reduced due to the rain, entered the palace and then came out again to briefly greet the compact crowd again despite the rainy weather.

Neither Charles's youngest son, Harry, nor his brother Andrew, both withdrawn from the monarchy, were there. The Duke of Sussex (Harry) and the Duke of York (Andrew) are no longer active members of the royal family, the first since his voluntary departure for the United States with his wife, Meghan, in 2020, while the second fell into disgrace after accusations of sexual assault which he denies and which he settled with a financial agreement. They both attended the coronation from the third row of Westminster Abbey.

In front of nearly 2,300 guests, the Archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby, laid St Edward's crown on the head of Charles III.

Shortly before, the sovereign took an oath to serve his subjects and to protect the Church of England of which he is the supreme head.

Charles III finally received the anointing, protected from view by screens.

New compared to the previous coronation.

It is replaced by a "tribute of the people":

the British and other populations of which Charles III is the head of state are called upon to pledge allegiance to the king.

For the first time, women bishops will participate in the coronation. Jewish, Muslim, Hindu, Sikh and Buddhist religious leaders also took part in the festivities and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, a Hindu, read a passage from the Bible. Another first in the field: the various texts were read in English but also in Welsh, Scottish Gaelic and Irish Gaelic.

For the first time, a coronation ceremony for a British sovereign was punctuated by the performance of a gospel group. This formation called Ascension Choir, which had been created especially for the occasion, breathed a welcome energy into the stuffy setting of Westminster.

A long weekend of festivities.

Britons are invited on Sunday to gather for convivial lunches on the occasion of the king's coronation.

A concert is also scheduled for the evening at Windsor Castle, in front of an audience of 20,000 people.

Monday has been declared a public holiday in the United Kingdom. The royal family invites the public to take advantage of this day off to carry out charitable actions near their homes.

“Long Live King Charles”!

SPECTACULAR ANTI-MAFIA NET

IN EUROPE

Hundreds of German police have intervened in five regions of Germany as part of a "large-scale European operation" which targets "leaders and members of the 'Ndrangheta", several regional prosecutor's offices said in a joint statement, including that of Munich.

Operations also took place in Belgium, France, Italy, Portugal and Spain.

In Germany, more than 100 searches were carried out and around 30 arrest warrants, including four European warrants, were executed, according to the authorities of the Länder of Bavaria, North Rhine-Westphalia, Rhineland-Palatinate, and Saarland.

It is in these regions of western and southern Germany that police operations have been concentrated.

The investigation relates, according to the press release, to the following crimes: "drug trafficking, money laundering, arms trafficking, fraud and various large-scale tax crimes".

According to the German media MDR and FAZ, more than 100 arrest warrants are to be executed on Wednesday in different countries.

Bavarian Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann called the operation a "sensitive blow to the 'Ndrangetha", a criminal organization based in the Italian region of Calabria (south) and considered the richest and most powerful mafia. of Italy, with a growing global extension covering more than 40 countries.

International response

The international ramifications of the 'Ndrangheta compelled the Italian authorities to seek help from their foreign counterparts. In 2020, Italy set up the “I-CAN” program through Interpol in order to inform other countries where the 'Ndrangheta is present about the organization of this mafia and to structure the repressive response.

Prior to Wednesday's operation, 46 'Ndrangheta members had been arrested worldwide under the scheme. The most famous of these is Rocco Morabito, one of Italy's most wanted fugitives, who was arrested last year in Brazil, after escaping from prison in Uruguay in 2019.

According to the Bavarian judicial police office, the German authorities acted within the framework of "Operation Eureka", coordinated by the European offices Europol and Eurojust.

Operation Eureka, launched at European level more than three years ago, is "one of the most important and significant of recent years in the field of organized crime in Italy", underlined the Bavarian police.

No one knows exactly what the numbers are, but according to Italian justice, the 'Ndrangheta has at least 20,000 members worldwide. According to the Italian magistrate Roberto di Bella, it is the criminal organization “with the most ramifications and present on the five continents”.

Italian prosecutor Nicola Gratteri, who sits in Catanzaro, one of the 'Ndrangheta strongholds in Calabria, one of Italy's poorest regions, estimates his annual turnover at 50 billion euros, largely from the cocaine trade.

As part of these investigations, the Italian and Belgian authorities were able to attribute to the 'Ndrangetha the import and trafficking of nearly 25 tonnes of cocaine, for the period from October 2019 to January 2022, said the same source. . Financial flows of more than 22 million euros from Calabria to Belgium, the Netherlands and South America have also been identified.

A maxi-trial with more than 300 defendants, alleged members or relatives of the 'Ndrangheta, opened in 2021, exposing the network of politicians, lawyers and businessmen accused of collusion with the mafia.

By its proportions, this trial is exceeded only by the first maxi-trial of 1986-1987 in Palermo against the Sicilian Cosa Nostra, at the end of which 338 defendants were condemned.

THE UKRAINIAN COUNTER-OFFENSIVE

HAS IT STARTED ?

"This counter-offensive could become a tragedy for our country," he warned.

The Wagner group was on the front line in the fighting around the city of Bakhmout.

Yevgeny Prigojine is in open conflict with the Russian military hierarchy, which he accuses of not knowingly delivering enough ammunition to his men and has publicly attacked Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on several occasions.

Ukraine said this week that its preparations for a counter-offensive were coming to an end.

On Sunday, the governor of the Russian region of Briansk bordering Ukraine announced that a Ukrainian bombardment having targeted a Russian village had left four dead and two injured.

The day before, a drone attack caused a fire in an oil depot in Sevastopol, the home port of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Crimea, according to the authorities of the peninsula annexed by Russia.

Moscow replaces its military logistics chief

The Russian army announced on Sunday the appointment of a new head of its military logistics, General Alexei Kuzmenkov, who replaces another high-ranking officer, General Mikhail Mizintsev, as Kyiv claims to have completed its preparations for a counteroffensive.

"General Alexei Kuzmenkov has been appointed Russian Deputy Minister of Defense, responsible for the material and technical supply of the Russian Armed Forces," the army said in a statement.

Until now, Mr. Kuzmenkov was deputy director of the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia), a post he had held since 2019, according to the press release.

Alexeï Kouzmenkov thus replaces Mikhaïl Mizintsev, who was only appointed to this post last September.

Former head of the National Defense Control Center, Mr. Mizintsev is targeted by Western sanctions for his role in the siege of Mariupol, a port city in southeastern Ukraine, devastated by bombing.

FINLAND TOWARDS A GOVERNMENT

RIGHT AND EXTREME RIGHT

Official negotiations to form a government will begin on May 2. They will bring together the National Coalition (center right), the party of Petteri Orpo, winner of the elections, the Finns Party (extreme right) as well as two other small traditional allied parties of the Finnish right.

Such an alliance with the Party of Finns, which won 20.1% of the vote in the legislative elections on April 2, would mean that a new anti-immigration party would find itself in power in Europe, against a backdrop of pressure from populist parties or extreme right in several countries of the continent.

Petteri Orpo, Deputy Prime Minister of Finland from 2017 to 2019, had two options to form a coalition: either to ally with the Social Democratic Party (SDP) of resigning Prime Minister Sanna Marin, or to unite with the Party of Finns, with which the main subject of divergence concerns immigration.

Between the two parties, this question promises to be the most difficult point in forging an alliance. When the nationalist party militates for important restrictions, Petteri Orpo defends him, a work immigration to counter the strong aging of the Finnish population.

"It will be a subject of negotiation. It is a very important question for us: immigration threatens security as well as the economy, declared Thursday, the leader of the Party of Finns. At the same time, we are in no way opposed to all immigration. There are certainly things we can agree on when it comes to labor immigration."

The current Prime Minister steps down

In Finland, the right has already governed with the Party of Finns (ex-True Finns) between 2015 and 2017, the date of a split within the eurosceptic formation which had resulted in a harder line, in particular in migration matters.

Final negotiations to form a government usually last about a month in Finland.

It takes 101 deputies to have an absolute majority in the Finnish Parliament and its 200 seats.

Members of coalitions in the Finnish Parliament traditionally inherit ministerial positions, and the second party in power usually takes the position of finance minister.

The arrival of a right-wing government in Finland would be historic, as it would be the first time in more than 100 years that governments would be formed with parties other than the Social Democratic Party or the Center Party...

PRESIDENTIAL IN TURKIYE

ERDOGAN'S CAMPAIGN IN DIFFICULTY

WAR IN UKRAINE

BEIJING PEACE PLAN VALID AT KREMLIN

BUT NOT IN THE WEST

But this 12-point plan, which does not condemn the invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops, did not convince kyiv and its allies. For Washington, China cannot claim to be impartial on the Ukrainian question.

"Beijing cannot claim to be impartial"

“China cannot reasonably be considered to be impartial” when it comes to Ukraine, a White House spokesman said on Tuesday, the most outspoken US criticism to date of the Chinese mediation proposal in the conflict.

Beijing "didn't condemn" the Russian invasion, "didn't stop buying Russian oil," said John Kirby, spokesman for the White House National Security Council.

He also accused Beijing of "passing on Russian propaganda" that the war in Ukraine would be the result of Western aggression.

A "new era" of their "special" relationship with Westerners

Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping on Tuesday March 21 praised the entry into a “new era” of their “special” relationship with Westerners. Vladimir Putin has said he supports the Chinese plan to settle the conflict in Ukraine, while accusing kyiv of rejecting it.

New provocation of the head of the Kremlin by going to Mariupol

Impervious to criticism from the international community and threats, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Mariupol, a Ukrainian city devastated by bombing, his first visit to a conquered area since the start of the Russian offensive in Ukraine on Sunday December 19, 2023 He had previously traveled to Crimea on Saturday for the 9th anniversary of the annexation of this Ukrainian peninsula by Russia.

The trip came a day after Vladimir Putin made a surprise visit to Crimea to mark the ninth anniversary of Russia's annexation of the peninsula, while the Russian president is under an arrest warrant. issued against him by the International Criminal Court (ICC). Vladimir Putin flew to Mariupol by helicopter, Russian news agencies reported, citing the Kremlin.

The Russian president then drove around several parts of the city, stopping several times and chatting with residents. Russian media also reported on Sunday that Vladimir Putin had met with commanders of the "special military operation" in Ukraine, including Russian army chief of staff Valery Gerasimov, who heads the operation.

This trip comes the day after a surprise visit by Vladimir Putin to Crimea to mark the ninth anniversary of the annexation of the peninsula by Russia.

And especially a few days after the announcement of an arrest warrant issued against him by the International Criminal Court.

ICC ISSUES ARREST WARRANT

AGAINST VLADIMIR PUTIN

“Today, 17 March 2023, Pre-Trial Chamber II of the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for two individuals in connection with the situation in Ukraine:

Mr. Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Ms. Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova, Presidential Commissioner for Children's Rights in Russia, the ICC said in a statement.

Mr. Putin “is presumed responsible for the war crime of illegal deportation of population [children] and illegal transfer of population [children] from the occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation”, added the court.

"The crimes were allegedly committed in occupied Ukrainian territory at least from February 24, 2022," the ICC continued, adding that there were "reasonable grounds to believe that Mr. Putin is personally responsible for the aforementioned crimes."

The Russian commissioner for children's rights, Maria Lvova-Belova, assured Friday that she would continue her work.

“It's nice that the international community has valued our work to help the children of our country, and that we don't leave them in areas of military operations and take them out […] There have been sanctions from all countries […]

But we will continue the work, ”she said, quoted by the Russian news agency Ria Novosti.

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Friday compared the arrest warrant to toilet paper.

“The International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant against Vladimir Putin. No need to explain where this paper should be used,” he wrote on Twitter in English, ending his message with a toilet paper emoticon.

On Monday, the New York Times reported that the ICC was preparing to prosecute Russians for transferring children to Russia and for deliberate strikes on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.

ICC prosecutor Karim Khan said earlier this month after a visit to Ukraine that the alleged child abductions were "under investigation with priority".

The ICC, created in 2002 to judge the worst crimes committed in the world, has been investigating for more than a year into possible war crimes or crimes against humanity committed during the Russian offensive.

Neither Russia nor Ukraine are members of the ICC, but kyiv has accepted the court's jurisdiction over its territory and is working with the prosecutor.

Russia denies war crimes allegations. Experts admitted she was unlikely to hand over any suspects.

BAKHMOUT SOON ENCIRCLED

A DECISIVE SETBACK IN THE FACE OF RUSSIAN ADVANCES

In recent days, pressure has increased dramatically on Ukrainian forces defending Bakhmout, facing Russian advances and the threat of encirclement.

Now virtually destroyed, Bakhmout has over the months become the scene of the longest and deadliest battle since the Russian invasion began in February

A "controlled withdrawal" of Ukrainian forces

In its latest report, published on Tuesday, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US expert group, said Kremlin troops had "likely" captured the eastern part of the city after a "controlled withdrawal" of Ukrainian forces from this area.

Faced with the fear of leaving an avenue for the Russians to seize towns in eastern Ukraine, the Ukrainian president made it known that his army would not let go of the slightest centimeter in Bakhmout. After Bakhmut, the Russians “could go further. They could go to Kramatorsk, they could go to Sloviansk, the way would be clear” for them “to other cities in Ukraine,” he said.

A locality even qualified as "an important node (of the lines) of defense of the Ukrainian soldiers in the Donbass", according to the words pronounced Tuesday by the Russian Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu. “His capture will allow new offensive operations to be carried out in depth,” he added during a meeting.

However, Wagner's troops carried out this attack at the cost of very heavy losses, even by Yevgeny Prigojine's own admission. A situation that pushes kyiv to continue the confrontation in Bakhmout to further wear out the Russian offensive forces. And if kyiv holds out long enough, it will allow it to prepare and launch its counter-offensive, planned thanks to the modern heavy and armored weapons promised by the West.

"I had a meeting with the chief of staff yesterday and the chief military commanders (...) and they all said that we must remain strong in Bakhmut", the president of Ukraine further said. .

While the strategic value of Bakhmout is disputed, the city has gained symbolic and tactical importance, given the heavy casualties suffered by both sides. It is the longest and deadliest battle since the Russian offensive began in February 2022.

The BBC also reports 20,000 to 30,000 Russian victims, according to Western officials about the fighting in Bakhmout, which began in the summer of 2022.

IS RUSSIA LOOTING OFF

IN THE POST-SOVIET AREA ?

Strongly destabilized by a series of conflicts – bloody clashes in Kazakhstan in January, the start of the war in Ukraine in February, new outbreaks of violence between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan in September and between Armenia and Azerbaijan in November, the Russia's former backyard is now a captivating geopolitical laboratory.

New power relations can arise there... provided that the external powers, in particular the European Union, the United States and China, react intelligently to this exit from the "vassalage" established by Moscow vis-à-vis its “near stranger”.

The beginnings of a rebalancing of forces or the end of Russian influence?

Since the beginning of the 1990s, the trajectories of the post-Soviet republics have oscillated between periods of rapprochement and distancing from Russia, visible in particular in the "velvet revolutions" that occurred, with varying success, in Georgia in 2003, in Ukraine in 2004 then in 2013-2014, in Belarus in 2005 or in Kyrgyzstan also in 2005.

The annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014 and, above all, the outbreak of war in Ukraine in 2022 have led most of these countries to a new quest for emancipation. The geopolitical edifice built by Moscow in its backyard now takes on the appearance of a house of cards with fragile foundations, far from the fortress embodied in particular by the complex institutional architecture erected by the Kremlin under the three forms of the Organization the Collective Security Treaty, the Commonwealth of Independent States and the Eurasian Economic Union.

Although very heterogeneous, the post-Soviet space (with the exception of Belarus) gives multiple signals of distancing from Moscow. Their modalities vary from very symbolic signals (failure to attend official meetings) to applications for EU membership submitted by Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, the last two having officially become candidate countries in June 2022. Today, Ukraine is naturally the ex-Soviet country whose break with Russia is the sharpest and, no doubt, definitive. The whole of Russia's neighborhood is concerned.

Central Asia and the Caucasus in turmoil

In Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan refused last October to host the annual military maneuvers of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, under the aegis of Russia, and is conducting partnership negotiations with Washington. Kazakhstan has canceled the May 9 military parade, a particularly symbolic act in view of the historical weight that this date carries in the post-Soviet space. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine from the start of the war, and made it public. During the last summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States in Astana, the President of Tajikistan, Emomali Rahmon, denounced Russia's attitude towards the countries of Central Asia, a significant act for a country that has remained under the Russian control since the breakup of the USSR.

The situation is similar for the countries of the South Caucasus. Armenia, which had supported Russia within the United Nations and the Council of Europe after the annexation of Crimea, refused to sign, last November, the final declaration of the summit of the Treaty of Collective Security (CSTO) because of its "inefficiency in managing the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict".

Azerbaijan, the first country to promise and provide humanitarian aid to Ukraine, also seems to have changed its tone vis-à-vis Russia by, for example, allowing state television to talk about Russian aggression. in Ukraine. More recently, in December, the transfer of Azerbaijani equipment to Ukraine as part of humanitarian aid prompted an immediate reaction from Russia.

The "Business as usual" strategy or the limits of emancipation

Attempts by post-Soviet republics to break free from Russian rule are naturally the subject of much commentary in the Western media and seem to be particularly attracting the attention of state governments in the EU and the United States. However, although the Kremlin cannot be indifferent to it, it does not seem to be unduly worried about it and, in any case, is trying to maintain the appearance of usual relations with neighboring countries.

The media coverage of the first Eurasian Economic Forum held in Bishkek in May 2022 (with the promise of opening new cooperation files) and of a possible "gas union" with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan announced at the end of November, several meetings of Putin with its "near abroad" counterparts during the year as well as the role of mediator played by Russia in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan are only a few examples among others of the strategy of continuity adopted by Moscow.

On December 26, during the end-of-year meeting of CIS Heads of State and Government, and in an outrageously symbolic way, Putin redrew the contours of his zone of influence by offering his counterparts rings on which are sculpted the symbol of the regional organization as well as the words "Happy New Year 2023" and "Russia".

The Kremlin seems to be betting on the many limits of the emancipation of its backyard. Indeed, these republics suffer the consequences of their isolation, since they are wedged, on the Central Asia and South Caucasus side (excluding Georgia) between Russia, China, Iran, Afghanistan and Turkey or transformed into a buffer zone between Russia and the European Union for which is Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova.

Deprived for the most part of maritime outlets, these States remain closely linked to Russia: economic markets and in particular energy markets (Armenia, for example, almost exclusively dependent on Russia for its supplies of cereals, gas or oil), of communication, including road and rail networks, investments in the banking and insurance sectors, agreements relating to the presence of military bases (moreover extended in 2022 until 2042 in Tajikistan and 2044 in Armenia), not to mention the presence of very numerous and expanding Russian-speaking minorities since the beginning of the offensive against Ukraine. The shock of the war obviously does not lead to a break in these short-term structural dependencies.

A geopolitical puzzle

In this situation, other actors and especially the EU, the United States and China find themselves facing a real geopolitical headache.

What strategies should be established to help post-Soviet republics break the vicious circle of dependencies inherited and/or accumulated since the collapse of the USSR while avoiding the outbreak of new conflicts in countries already weakened by their internal contradictions ( Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Belarus, etc.)?

The decisions taken by Westerners in 2022 bear witness to a certain risk-taking. The EU has, as we have said, granted Ukraine and Moldova the status of candidate for membership. It is conducting negotiations in this direction with Georgia, and has concluded an energy agreement with Azerbaijan, including in particular the project for a new submarine cable bypassing Russia. It is also strengthening its role as mediator in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan by sending a “civilian mission”. It has also launched a "strategic partnership" with Kazakhstan on green hydrogen and raw materials.

On the United States side, the situation is similar: the Americans are taking advantage of the weakening of Russia in order to extend their influence in the region, without however making it a priority. US officials have intensified contacts with Central Asian elites, both in the areas of military and economic cooperation. The American Economic Resilience Initiative launched this fall is one of the modalities.

Finally, China, although cautious vis-à-vis Russia on the Ukrainian issue, is also seeking to extend its influence by taking advantage of the new geopolitical context. Chinese companies, already widely present in the mining, transport and hydrocarbons sectors, are stepping up their investments, as in Kazakhstan, where China is supporting around fifty projects which should be completed in 2023. Xi Jinping's flagship project, the "new silk road", continues its deployment, in particular with the start planned in 2023 of the train line connecting China to Uzbekistan via Kyrgyzstan.

However, despite these developments which seem to presage a step towards a new “end of history” in the former Soviet republics, the situation remains ambivalent and caution is called for. Putin's hardline policy, which he demonstrated in 2022, but also the still very heavy interdependencies between Russia and its border countries, on the one hand, as well as between Russia, Europe ( particularly in the field of energy) and China (notably in their strategy of opposition to Western powers), on the other hand, remain major obstacles to a real paradigm shift in the short term.

It also remains, especially in Central Asia, to convince the local populations, whose attitude vis-à-vis the United States and China has been rather suspicious since the 2000s, that the presence of these countries would not result in term by a new form of vassalage. For the time being, opinion polls show that societies are becoming increasingly reluctant to “welcome” these external powers. According to, for example, the Central Asia Barometer, infrastructure projects under the aegis of China raise many concerns among the Kyrgyz population.

The year 2023, and the following ones, will undoubtedly be conditioned by the ability of Westerners and Chinese (but also of Turks and Iranians, also active in the Caucasus and Central Asia) to consolidate their presence without, however, crossing a red line with regard to Russia which remains, for the time being, and despite everything, the dominant power in the post-Soviet space.

Article by Katsiaryna Zhuk

Professor in geopolitics and informational design, Grenoble Ecole de Management (GEM)

featured in TheConversation.

BEHIND THE UKRAINIAN CONFLICT ISSUES

SUPERPOWERS

AND A NEW WORLD ORDER

This Wednesday Russian President Putin welcomed the head of Chinese diplomacy Wang Yi to the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin judging that the Russian-Chinese relationship "stabilized the international situation", in full suspense around a Chinese peace plan for Ukraine , supposed to be released this week. "International relations are complicated today (...) In this context, cooperation (...) between China and Russia is of great importance for the stabilization of the international situation", declared the Russian president, by welcoming the head of Chinese diplomacy Wang Yi to the Kremlin. In addition, Vladimir Putin also said he was waiting for the visit of President Xi Jinping to Moscow.

Washington's "unwavering" support for Moscow.

At the same time, it was American President Joe Biden who met the group of nine leaders of the NATO countries of Central and Eastern Europe in the presence of the Secretary General of the Atlantic Alliance. This meeting aims to reassure these nine countries of the eastern flank of the alliance (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia) of support " unfailing" of Washington against Moscow. Joe Biden's surprise visit to Kiev, a year after the invasion of Ukraine, is obviously not trivial. It aims to reaffirm the determination of the United States to support Ukraine, at a time when we fear the imminence of a Russian counter-offensive after a winter of stagnation of the belligerents on the eastern front.

But behind the war in Ukraine, what issues are hidden for the Russia-China couple in the face of the United States-Europe couple?

Relations between Beijing and Moscow "in concrete"

Visiting Moscow as recently as Tuesday, February 21, Wang Yi, China's foreign minister, told Nikolai Patrushev, one of Vladimir Putin's top advisers, that relations between Beijing and Moscow were "in concrete". and resist any challenge that may arise in a changing international environment. The Chinese statement could not be clearer to Westerners.

Wang Yi also told Nikolai Patrushev, also secretary of the Russian Security Council, that he is looking forward to discussing security issues and that it would be auspicious for China and Russia to work on new joint measures to guarantee the security of the two countries.

Moreover, since the start of the war in Ukraine almost a year ago, China has been careful not to condemn Russia's offensive or to qualify as an invasion what Moscow presents as a "special military operation ". A few days before the start of the conflict, Russia and China even concluded an "unlimited" partnership which has worried the West since Washington expressed its concern over possible arms deliveries from Beijing to Moscow...

“Sino-Russian relations are mature. They are concrete and will withstand any challenge in a changing international situation,” Wang Yi told Nikolai Patrushev.

This is because the analysis of China's international situation is in many ways similar to that of Vladimir Putin, who yesterday in his state of the nation address accused NATO and the West of fueling the conflict by Ukraine mistakenly thinking they can defeat Russia whose existence they seek to destroy. "The elites of the West do not hide their objective: to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, that is to say to finish us off once and for all", he hammered, in his diatribe against the West. “The responsibility for the fueling of the Ukrainian conflict and its victims […] rests entirely with the Western elites,” the Russian president continued. What does that mean ?

For us, what does this mean ? That means : finish us off once and for all. That is to say, they intend to transform a local conflict into a global confrontation.

Sources of tension between China and the United States

"In the context of the collective West's campaign to contain both Russia and China, the deepening of Russian-Chinese cooperation and exchanges in the international arena is of particular importance," said elsewhere added Nikolai Patrushev, quoted by the official Russian news agency RIA.

As proof: Did the adviser to the Russian president not indicate to the head of Chinese diplomacy that Moscow was aligned with Beijing's position concerning Taiwan, Hong Kong, Tibet and Xinjiang, all sources of tension between China and the United States?

The alliance of Russia and China against the United States and its European vassals around the Ukrainian conflict is part of the reconfiguration of a new shifting world order. And the Sino-American confrontation...

With a marginalization of Europeans...

PRESIDENT ZELENSKY VISITS EUROPE

WITH ITS FIGHTER AIRPLANE REQUEST

FACING A NEW RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE

Volodymyr Zelensky took the opportunity to once again urged his Western allies to provide him with the "necessary weapons" to stop the Russian invasion, including fighter planes in front of British parliamentarians.

"I ask you and the world - simple, yet very important words: fighter jets for Ukraine, wings for freedom."

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has asked the British army to study the possibility of delivering planes to the Ukrainian army, Downing Street said on Wednesday, assuring however that this could only constitute a "long-term solution". .

Ahead of the meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and Rishi Sunak, Downing Street indicated that London would further strengthen the training provided by the British army to Ukrainian soldiers.

Pilots and Marines will thus be trained to use the equipment provided by NATO – this is a long-standing request from kyiv. This commitment is in addition to the 10,000 Ukrainians already trained in the last six months, and the 20,000 who are due to train this year.

The Prime Minister also renews his commitment to supply Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine.

The risk of a new Russian offensive

According to a note from the British intelligence services published on Tuesday February 7, 2023, Russia is currently increasing the sending of armed forces to eastern Ukraine to carry out a new offensive.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu yesterday boasted of his army's progress after a strategic meeting with Russian top brass: "Currently, the fighting is progressing successfully in the areas" of Bakhmout and Vougledar which are disputed by the two camps for many months.

kyiv expects Russia to target northeastern Kharkiv and southern Zaporizhia regions in what it anticipates will be a major Moscow offensive designed to tip the balance of power into conflict.

In an interview with Reuters, Oleksiy Danilov, director of the Ukrainian Security and Defense Council, said Russian troops were assessing Ukrainian defensive capabilities in the partially Russian-occupied Zaporizhia region to form a land bridge between eastern Ukraine and the annexed Crimean Peninsula.

The Russians would like to launch the assault around February 24, a year to the day after the outbreak of war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky assured during his televised address on February 5, 2023.

Several hundred thousand additional Russian soldiers "are completing their training on the border with Ukraine", said Oleksii Reznikov, the Ukrainian Minister of Defense.

The Ukrainians are not the only ones to wave the red flag of a major offensive being prepared in Moscow. Julianne Smith, the American ambassador to NATO, also mentioned it at the beginning of February to insist on the "urgency" of sending tanks to Ukraine as quickly as possible to contain the Russian assault.

Even Russian President Vladimir Putin alluded to it, without speaking openly about a major offensive.

“He warned the army general staff that he wanted the territories lost by Russia in the Donetsk region [à la fin de la contre-offensive russe, NDLR] to be recaptured before March,” underlines Sim Tack, a military analyst for Forces Analysis, a conflict monitoring firm.

There are indeed "new troops who are redeployed to several places on the front line", noted this expert.

They are essentially soldiers who were doing their training in Belarus after being called to war during the partial mobilization of September 2022.

But Russia is not just sending more men. Artillery and, above all, new tanks are also heading towards the front.

AIRPLANES... AND STILL ON THE BED

UKRAINIAN SIDE ?

Ukraine's allies have taken new steps in military support to Ukraine by pledging to provide heavy tanks and longer-range rockets, among other things. The latest, Portugal, which has said it is willing to send Leopard 2 heavy tanks to Ukraine, but which must first work with Germany to restore some of its armor to working order.

Ukraine will receive armored vehicles from the United States and France: Bradley tanks for the former and AMX 10 RC, light armored vehicles, for the latter. The French president has promised to be at the side of the Ukrainians "until the return of peace in Europe".

In January 2023, Ukrainian President Zelenski insistently demanded Leopard 2 heavy tanks from Germany, after much hesitation Berlin accepted – somewhat forced – the re-export of about fifteen of its tanks.

In an interview granted this Sunday to the German weekly Bild, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz insisted on revealing the existence of a "consensus" with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky around the use of weapons supplied by Westerners. These should not be used to carry out attacks on Russian territory, the Chancellor said. “There is a consensus on this point,” he said. For fear of becoming part of the war...

But does this condition allow kyiv to always demand more ?

After artillery and tanks, western planes for kyiv ?

Since the United States and Germany announced last week that they would supply Ukraine with heavy combat tanks, kyiv has been pressing to receive fourth-generation fighter jets, such as the American F-16.

If Joe Biden, like Poland and Germany, indicated that F-16 deliveries were not on the agenda, Emmanuel Macron opened the door more ajar to discussions on the case of fighter jets. Others, on the other hand, say they are ready to do so, including Slovakia, which could sell Soviet Mig-29s, or the Netherlands, which has begun replacing its fleet of F-16s with F-35s, the fighter plane claimed by President Zelensky.

What red lines ?

It is clear that the red lines set by the allies, for fear of escalation with Moscow, jumped one after the other over the course of the conflict: reluctant at first, the United States ended up promising kyiv their very efficient Patriot air defense system, and very recently tanks, like several European countries.

After opposing on Monday a categorical refusal to send US F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, did President Joe Biden not say on Tuesday that he was “going to talk” to his counterpart ?

Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelensky about his pressing demands for fighter planes and long-range missiles ?

Will Joe Biden's position change once again ?

Because the Ukrainians have understood well how to maneuver with Joe Biden “For each first request, you have to fight against the NO first. That means no as it is today […]

I remind you that with the German Leopard tank, it was no at first and now we have a coalition of tanks”, put into perspective Tuesday, January 31 at Paris Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov.

Just like delivering heavy tanks to kyiv, the question of fighter jets will animate the discussions and divide the Western allies. And once again it is the Americans who will sort of decide for the Europeans.

The German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was however very clear, during an interview dated January 29 granted to the newspaper Tagesspiegel, to supply Ukraine with fighter planes.

"The question of combat aircraft does not even arise. I can only advise against getting into a constant bidding war when it comes to weapon systems",he said.

"NATO is not at war with Russia", the German Chancellor further specified.

EX-NATO GENERAL PETR PAVEL

ELECTED PRESIDENT OF CZECHIA

General Petr Pavel, a former high-ranking NATO officer, defeated populist billionaire Andrej Babis.

Posing as a "peace" candidate, the latter had caused an outcry by declaring that he would not send Czech troops to help Poland or the Baltic countries as part of NATO's collective defense.

He succeeds head of state Milos Zeman, a controversial politician, who had close ties with Moscow before flip-flopping when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

Petr Pavel, 61, who won the election with 58% of the vote, promised to "restore order" in this country of 10.5 million inhabitants, a member of NATO.

"I can't ignore that people are feeling more and more chaos, disorder and uncertainty, that the state has somehow ceased to function," he said on his campaign website.

"We have to change that. We have to respect the rules valid for everyone. We need a general sweep," he insisted.

With a neatly trimmed white beard and white hair, the 60-year-old rarely smiled during the campaign, which was acrimonious and marked by controversy.

A communist past

Petr Pavel attended a military high school and then a military university. He joined the Communist Party - a move his opponents still blame him for - and began a rapid rise through the ranks of the military. He is also accused of having wanted to become a military intelligence agent.

When communism fell in 1989, Petr Pavel left the party but continued his intelligence training.

“For 33 years, I participated in the democratization of our country and campaigned for a pro-Western turn,” defended Petr Pavel.

"I believe that my actions clearly show what values ​​I defend and that I am ready to fight to preserve them," he said again.

NATO Commander

Petr Pavel is a hero of the war in the former Yugoslavia during which he notably helped to free French soldiers.

He then became Chief of the Czech General Staff, and from 2015 to 2018 held the post of Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, the highest post of military official in the Atlantic Alliance.

He promised to be an independent president, uninfluenced by party politics, to continue supporting aid to war-torn Ukraine, and to support kyiv's bid to join the EU.

"Of course, Ukraine must first meet all the conditions to become a member, such as progress in the fight against corruption. But I think it has the right to have the same chances that we had in the past,” he said.

Among other pledges, Petr Pavel vowed to be an independent president, uninfluenced by party politics, to continue supporting aid to war-torn Ukraine, and to support kyiv's bid for membership of the EU.

Although his role is essentially ceremonial in the Czech Republic, the head of state appoints the government, chooses the governor of the central bank and the constitutional judges, and assumes supreme command of the armed forces.

Mr Pavel will be the fourth president of the Czech Republic since it became an independent state after a peaceful split with Slovakia in 1993, four years after Czechoslovakia abandoned its communist rule.

DESPITE A NUMBER UP BY 32%

ONE MORE LAW TO CONTROL

IMMIGRATION IN DANGER

"The effects of the health crisis, which marked the migratory flows in 2020 and 2021, are now partially erased", explained yesterday the Ministry of the Interior.

In total, 34,029 undocumented migrants were regularized (+7.8% compared to 2021), while 15,396 deportations were pronounced, including 3,615 delinquent foreigners. Since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, 65,833 displaced people have found refuge in France.

Regular or not, immigration again broke records last year, not even counting the forced exodus of Ukrainians.

For decades, the subject has not ceased to worry. However, nothing changes, everything gets worse: the makeshift camps are multiplying, tensions in certain neighborhoods or territories are rising dangerously and the links with the increase in delinquency are obvious.

This report comes as the government will bring forward a highly sensitive bill in March. "Its title - bill 'to control immigration, improve integration' - is an ode to 'at the same time'", analyzes a journalist Paul Chaulet.

A balancing act of "at the same time"

The debate on the immigration bill promises to be a little more delicate than expected for the Minister of the Interior, Gérald Darmanin. Presented next Wednesday in the Council of Ministers, the text will be examined in the Senate in March then in the National Assembly, in May or June.

As it stands, the text transmitted to the Council of State provides for a series of measures to facilitate expulsions, especially of "delinquent" foreigners, a "structural" reform of the asylum system and an integration component, in particular for homeless workers. papers.

"To control immigration, improve integration", summarizes the title of the future law whose executive boasts "balance"

A text that results from a subtle balance.

To speak to the right, he intends to facilitate the measures for the removal of foreigners in an irregular situation, while the executive is accused of not doing enough on the obligations to leave French territory, while also creating a new one-year residence permit for workers in an irregular situation in shortage occupations according to the recurring demands of the left.

Find an agreement with LR

This text must be screened in March by the Senate, under the control of a right hostile to the project, then at the approach of summer in the National Assembly.

And, in addition to the burning issue of pensions, this other major text for the government, on the sovereign aspect, needs the LR vote to obtain a majority.

Except that the task promises to be particularly complex with Les Républicains. Because the vast majority of LR deputies are already expressing reluctance on this text, with a red line: the residence permit for jobs in tension, considered as an opening of the floodgates

"Parliamentary logic would like the text to pass first to the Assembly. So what is the purpose of sending this text first to the Senate, if not to try to find an agreement with Les Républicains?", pretends to question a source familiar with the matter, who believes that the Senate is the "key" to the future of the text.

Its integration component could be reduced to a bare minimum after the upper room washing machine, with the target of the measure of creation of a residence permit "jobs in tension", synonymous at LR with a wave of massive regularizations.

The Minister of the Interior Gérald Darmanin however affirmed at the end of December that “everything that the LRs have always asked for, we offer it”.

The right wants to go even further on evictions

On Thursday, on the occasion of the publication of annual immigration statistics, his only position was on security grounds dear to the right: "Priority has been given to foreign offenders: 3,615 foreign offenders have expelled in 2022 (…) i.e. twice as many" as in 2021.

His ministry recalled on this occasion that the text was precisely intended to circumvent the "brakes" to expulsions, in particular "the existence of remedies" against them.

“Certain” measures, those favoring expulsions, “are going in the right direction but they are very largely insufficient”, has already swept the new president of the Republicans Éric Ciotti, who assured on January 18 that he would vote “against”.

Like his entire political family, which advocates tougher immigration, he felt that the government was "pretending to impose tougher measures". "It's total war," insists an LR deputy, who is already calling for a restriction on family reunification or the halving of student visas.

And what about the National Rally ?

And let's already apply the plethora of existing laws instead of giving new bills to the media !!!

TERRORISM IN SPAIN

MACHETE ATTACK IN TWO CHURCHES

It was 7 p.m. on Wednesday evening when a man entered the San Isidro church in Algeciras in southern Spain.

Armed with a machete, he seriously injured the priest.

An hour earlier, he had already gone there - unarmed - and had argued with parishioners, telling them that they should follow Islam, according to Spanish media.

Once the priest was injured, the man went to another religious building, the Nustra Señora de La Palma church, located 200 m away. He started throwing crucifixes and candles placed on the altar to the ground and attacked a sexton.

and clergyman managed to flee but the assailant ran after him and inflicted several fatal injuries

The sexton was called Diego Valencia. The priest is called Antonio Rodriguez. He was seriously injured in the neck.

"Shortly before 8 p.m., a person carried out a stabbing attack, killing one person and injuring others in the church of San Isidro in Algeciras, in the province of Cádiz", indicated for his part. the Spanish Ministry of the Interior in a brief statement.

And to clarify: "The assailant was arrested and placed in police custody."

According to a police source, the assailant was dressed in a djellaba and "screamed something" at the time of the attack.

Local media, based on testimonies, indicate that the assailant was armed with a machete with which he killed the sexton.

The alleged perpetrator had been pending deportation since June due to his irregular status but he had no criminal or terrorism record in Spain or allied countries, the ministry said on Thursday. Interior Spanish.

The prosecution has opened an investigation for "presumed acts of terrorism" of an Islamist nature.

The mayor of Algeciras has declared a national day of mourning. He invites the population to gather at noon this Thursday, in front of the church where the sexton died.

WHAT ARE THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE DELIVERY OF HEAVY TANKS TO UKRAINE ?

Germany will authorize the delivery of Leopard tanks to the Ukrainian army.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has decided to deliver Leopard 2 heavy battle tanks to Ukraine and allow allied countries to do the same, a source familiar with the matter said on Tuesday, while the United States may they too send tanks to Kyiv to help it against the Russian offensive.

The information was welcomed by Ukraine, which had long been asking, through the voice of its President Volodimir Zelensky, for an acceleration of arms deliveries and the dispatch of tanks by its Western allies.

According to the German newspaper Der Spiegel, which first reported the decision from Berlin, the delivery concerns at least one squadron of Leopard 2 A6s. A squadron is traditionally made up of fourteen vehicles. This decision comes a few days after a meeting between NATO allies which did not lead to an agreement on sending heavy tanks to Ukraine.

Germany was facing increased pressure from several European countries, such as Poland, to allow them to supply Kyiv with Leopard tanks and also send its vehicles to help Ukraine in the face of Russia's offensive .

After the Germans, here are the Americans.

A few hours after the announcement made by Berlin of the forthcoming delivery of Leopard 2 heavy tanks to the Ukrainian army, the United States confirmed this Wednesday afternoon the shipment of M1 Abrams model tanks.

Logic: according to the German press, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's announcement only came after discussions with Washington around a joint commitment. 31 Abrams tanks will be sent to Ukraine, a senior American official announced on Wednesday evening, "in line with our efforts to provide Ukraine with the capabilities it needs to continue to better defend itself".

How many tanks ?

Of the 3,500 Leopard 2 tanks in the world, more than 2,000 are in use in 13 European countries. While it is true that Germany has drastically reduced the number of its main battle tanks to a measly 6-7% of 1989 stocks, it could still spare some of its more than 300 Leopard 2 tanks in service, even if only 100 to 150 are ready to use.

The Armed Forces could potentially spare its 19 Leopard 2A5 models used only for practice, along with a few dozen others if politically prioritized and replaced with industry stock later. Together, Germany could then supply about fifty Leopard 2 tanks in a few weeks. Not to mention the 180 older, less powerful Leopard 1 tanks that are still in industry inventory.

The firepower, capabilities and mobility of the Leopard 2s promise a lot to the decimated fleet of the Ukrainians, helpless in this sector against the Russian armada. Impressive technical sheet

Built in series from the 1970s, the Leopard 2 is not the ultimate weapon but it remains a machine with impressive properties. It can roll and fire its shells from its 120mm gun at the same time. With its 450 km range and especially its 1500 horsepower, the Leopard 2 is capable of pushing its top speed up to 70 km/h.

It will still be necessary to deliver them in sufficient numbers and to accompany the expedition with the necessary efforts in terms of preparation, underline the observers.

The United States, for their part, will deliver 31 Abrams tanks.

This heavy tank which features a 120mm gun is the mainstay of the US Army and has been continuously improved since its introduction in 1981.

The announcement is part of an American support program for Ukraine, which has been reinforced for weeks. On January 6, the administration pledged to deliver new aid of 3 billion dollars to Ukraine. At the same time, the government decided on the shipment to Kyiv of hundreds of lighter armored combat vehicles.

A turning point in the conflict ?

At the end of the afternoon, Joe Biden declared at a press conference that the United States would deliver 31 Abrams tanks to Ukraine. "To strengthen their positions on the battlefield, [the Ukrainians] must be able to carry out maneuvers in open terrain and to defend themselves against the Russian aggressor", specified the president.

The delivery of heavy tanks becomes an alternative solution which should make it possible to open new breaches in the Russian system. It is indeed for the Ukrainians to pierce the concrete wall built by the Kremlin whose forces are always capable of winning as shown by the battle of Soledar.

At the end of the morning this Wednesday, following the German decision, the Ukrainian presidency welcomed the future delivery of the 14 Leopard tanks. While urging Westerners to provide more to fight against Russian soldiers. "A first step has been taken", commented on Telegram Andriï Iermak, the head of the presidential administration who called for the implementation of an international "coalition" to organize the supply of heavy tanks to his country. Finally adding: “we need a lot of Leopards”.

"This is going to become a real punch of democracy against autocracy," Andriy Yermak said via messaging app Telegram.

UKRAINE STRANGLED BY BUSINESS

CASCADE OF CORRUPTION

In the past 24 hours, corruption scandals have affected very high personalities in the country. In addition to the Deputy Minister of Defence, those of Social Policy and Territorial Development were also dismissed.

To this list is added the deputy head of the presidential administration, the deputy prosecutor general, Oleksiï Simonenko, accused of having recently gone on vacation to Spain while travel abroad, except for professional purposes, is prohibited. for men of military age, and finally several regional governors, all forced to leave their posts. Unprecedented scandals since the war broke out.

These senior officials would have received bribes in connection with the contracts.

The deputy minister for infrastructure was arrested on Sunday for having received 400,000 dollars thanks to the overcharged purchase of electric generators. And this while the country is plagued by serious problems of power cuts.

Another scandal affecting military logistics this time: Viatcheslav Chapovalov is one of the defendants.

The Deputy Minister of Defense is thus accused of having participated in the signing of a contract at an overvalued price on food products intended for his soldiers, as revealed by the Ukrainian media ZN.UA.

The amount of the contract would amount to 324 million euros with prices established "two to three higher" than the current tariffs in force for basic food products according to the Ukrainian press.

The Ministry of Defense denied this, but Deputy Minister Viacheslav Shapovalov, in charge of the logistical support of the armed forces, was forced to resign, officially to facilitate the investigation into these allegations.

Business that is all the less acceptable for the Ukrainians in that all this takes place in time of war and that Ukraine, if it wants to continue to benefit from the support of the Western countries from which it is currently demanding modern tanks, must show itself irreproachable on this chapter.

“I want this to be clear: there will be no return to what was done in the past, to the way certain people close to state institutions lived,” Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday evening.

The Ukrainian President has promised new announcements and new decisions in the coming days to fight corruption.

Ukraine's corruption problems did not start with the war:

THE FRANCO-GERMAN LOCOMOTIVE

HAS THE LEAD IN THE WING

The leaders reaffirmed their full support for Ukraine, but did not decide on the direct delivery of Leclerc (France) and Leopard 2 (Germany) tanks. French President Emmanuel Macron said "nothing is ruled out" regarding the delivery of Leclerc tanks to Ukraine. “I asked the Minister of the Armed Forces to work on it,” he explained during a press conference on Sunday evening, alongside German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The Head of State, however, listed three conditions for this delivery: the first, "that it is not escalatory", the second, "that it can provide real and effective support to our Ukrainian friends" and the third, "that it does not weaken our own defense capabilities. »

Asked about the Leopard tanks, Olaf Scholz said that "the way we have acted in the past is always closely coordinated with our friends and allies and we will continue to act according to the concrete situation". Criticized by many of his allies, especially in the East, Olaf Scholz let his Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock, announce on the LCI channel that Berlin would not oppose Poland if Warsaw decided to re-export the tanks to Ukraine. German Leopard in his possession.

But the two leaders have made no secret of the fact that their positions have remained very far apart on a European anti-missile shield project that Berlin wishes to carry out with Israeli and American technologies that already exist, while Paris is pleading for a European solution, on the basis of a system French-Italian.

The only major concrete announcement is Germany's support for the Franco-Portuguese-Spanish pipeline project carrying green hydrogen (H2Med).

On the other hand, they defined a “common line” in favor of an “ambitious and rapid” European response to American industrial subsidies in terms of energy transition. This action must be based on "simplicity" and "greater visibility on our aid systems", according to the French president, who has been maneuvering in recent months to convince European countries, and in particular Germany, to initiate a plan just as massive as that of the United States to avoid the deindustrialization of Europe. The two capitals have therefore given the measure of the calibration of the European response to the American plan to reduce inflation (IRA) whose massive subsidies threaten the competitiveness of the industry of the Old Continent.

Often criticized, the Franco-German leadership is however expected by the other capitals, Paris and Berlin have the responsibility to put themselves in overhang.

Far from being confined to the two banks of the Rhine, the ups and downs of the Franco-German couple also animate the debates in Brussels. The terms “axis” or “engine” are however preferred there to that of “couple”, because they describe more finely the role of Paris and Berlin in the manufacture of compromises at twenty-seven.

Thus the agreement of May 2020 between Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron which had paved the way for a historic recovery plan of 750 billion euros, financed by a common debt.

On most subjects – economy, defence, international trade – the two European powers start from opposite points of view, which structure the space in which the others position themselves. "Since the departure of the United Kingdom, this informal axis has become even more important to build bridges between the east and the west or between the north and the south of Europe", analyzes the Romanian MEP Dacian Ciolos.

In recent months, however, their disagreement has not gone unnoticed. But the accusing fingers rather point to Berlin. Could the Chancellor struggle to extricate himself from his national interests? If Germany has to review its fundamentals, from energy policy to its trade relations with China, while three parties are governing together in Berlin for the first time, the fact remains that Europe is moving away from more and more towards the East, leaving France to the countries of the South...

"The future, like the past, depends on the cooperation of our two countries, as the locomotive of a united Europe", declared the Chancellor,

who called the "Franco-German engine" a "compromise machine" for "transforming controversies and divergent interests into convergent action".

WILL BORIS PISTORIUS' GERMANY DELIVER LEOPARD TANKS TO UKRAINE ?

On January 19, 2023, the German Chancellor, Olaf Schoz, indicated that his next Minister of Defense would be Boris Pistorius, then Social Democratic Minister of the Interior and Sports in the Lower Saxony state government.

He is a "highly experienced politician, who has been dealing with security policy for years", argued Mr. Scholz. He is, "thanks to his skills, his ability to impose himself and his big heart [...], exactly the right person to lead the Bundeswehr through this changing era", he added.

A seasoned regional elected official, this 62-year-old social democrat, almost unknown at the national level, replaces Christine Lambrecht who resigned on Monday after a series of blunders. Interior Minister of Lower Saxony since 2013, he is a "highly experienced politician, proven in administration, who has been dealing with security policy for years", said Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

A specialist in cybersecurity issues

Boris Pistorius is a lawyer by training and comes from the chancellor's political party. He specializes in issues of cybersecurity, homeland security and migration policy. In recent years, he had made no secret of his national ambitions. His attempt to accede to the presidency of the Social Democratic Party in 2019 had however failed. Then in 2021, he was considered a potential candidate for a ministerial post when the government was formed.