THE ISRAELI DEFENSE SYSTEM

ON ALERT

HEZBOLLAH

"A MINI-STATE WITHIN THE LEBANESE STATE" ?

Hezbollah, also known as the Party of God, is a Lebanese Shiite Islamist religious political party and paramilitary group. Its paramilitary activities are overseen by the Central Jihad Council. Hezbollah is classified as a terrorist organization by many states.

The Origins of Hezbollah

Hezbollah's origins date back to the early 1980s during the Israeli invasion of Lebanon. Created with Iranian financial and military assistance in 1982, just three years after the Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Hezbollah emerged in the midst of the Lebanese War, when Beirut and the south of the country were occupied and besieged by Israeli forces.

Hezbollah is suspected of involvement in various attacks in Lebanon during the civil war, including against the French and Americans in 1983. More recently, the party was accused of being behind the attack targeting former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri in 2015, which seriously destabilized the country.

The party's dream is to establish an Iranian-style Islamic state, but Lebanon's sectarian mosaic is hampering this project.

The Party of God is the only Lebanese political party that kept its weapons after the end of the civil war in the 1990s, while all other parties were disarmed. The party kept its weapons in the name of "resistance against Israel", whose army gradually withdrew from Lebanon until it evacuated the south of the country in May 2000 after 22 years of occupation.

During the civil war, Hezbollah operated in the absence of the official state, particularly in the south of the country, a predominantly Shiite region that was underprivileged and long neglected by the Lebanese authorities. After the withdrawal of Israeli forces from South Lebanon, Hezbollah carved out an important place for itself in the lives of many residents of this region, providing them with basic social services, generally provided by the state, such as health and education.

Hezbollah is described as a mini-state within the state because it operates a series of strategic parallel networks, far from any official control. Hezbollah even has a financial network parallel to that of the state and which operates outside the Lebanese financial system.

Al-Qard al-Hassan, officially registered as a non-governmental organization, offers interest-free microcredits to some 300,000 clients, despite being under US sanctions for nearly 20 years.

Hassan Nasrallah.

Since 1992, the party has been led and embodied by its secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah. This 64-year-old cleric is the object of a veritable cult of personality among his followers, particularly within the Shiite Muslim community from which he comes. Since 2006, he has rarely appeared in public and his place of residence is kept secret.

He patiently developed Hezbollah, armed and financed by Iran, into an essential political force, represented in parliament and government.

Since the start of the war in Gaza between Hamas and Israel, the man who sports the black turban of the Sayyed, the descendants of the prophet Mohammed to whom he claims to be descended, has opened the front in southern Lebanon to support his Palestinian ally.

Armed organization opposed to Israel in the region.

Hezbollah is the main armed organization opposed to Israel in the region. Its strength is between 40,000 and 50,000 fighters, according to a US Congressional report published Friday, 100,000 fighters according to Nasrallah.

An underground arsenal

After Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2000, Hezbollah developed a vast network of tunnels for transporting and supplying its militias with sophisticated weaponry. Unlike in Gaza, where most tunnels are dug manually in sandy soil, those in Lebanon have been dug deep into the rock of the mountains, much less accessible than in Gaza and even less easy to destroy.

It stores anti-ship missiles, surface-to-surface missiles and anti-tank missiles, night vision equipment, drones and also to hide their movements. Since the conflict with Israel in 2006, even more sophisticated means have been brought into this region via the Syrian border.

Hezbollah's arsenal is believed to include some 150,000 rockets, according to the US congressional report. Its most powerful and long-range ballistic missiles are believed to be kept underground. Rockets were launched Sunday from areas of southern Lebanon that had been targeted by Israel shortly before, showing how well some of Hezbollah's weapons are concealed.

In addition to this arsenal, Hezbollah is in possession of Fateh-110, Zelzal I and II, and Scud D missiles with which it threatens urban centers throughout Israel. Hezbollah's main supporter and arms supplier is Iran. The group is the most powerful faction of Tehran's "Axis of Resistance," which groups together irregular forces allied across the Middle East. Many of its weapons are of Iranian, Russian, or Chinese designs.

In addition to a parallel army of more than 100,000 fighters and 150,000 missiles, Hezbollah has its own telecommunications network.

Its own telecommunications network

Part of this network was exposed last week after the simultaneous explosions of thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies belonging mainly to Hezbollah members. The attack, attributed to Israel by the Lebanese authorities, left 37 dead and more than 3,500 injured, many of them civilians, with the explosions taking place in public spaces such as grocery stores and cafes.

Hezbollah also has another telecommunications network, this one underground, which extends throughout Lebanese territory.

Diversified financing

Hezbollah is said to draw its funding mainly from Iran. The weapons and equipment it uses come from Tehran, and the munitions transit through Syria, where the Party of God is one of the main allies of the Bashar Al-Assad regime. However, Iran is not the only source of income, and Hezbollah is diversifying its means of financing.

Hezbollah's economy also relies on an underground economy (trafficking, smuggling, money laundering) and the infiltration of public institutions to direct decisions and resources to its areas of influence.

Since 2019, Lebanon has been unbanked. A "cash economy" that has forced Hezbollah to adopt a new strategy for capturing money from the diaspora or tourists. Expatriates, no longer able to send funds through banks, must go through transfer companies, mainly controlled by relatives and Christian allies of the Party of God. A commission is thus requested for the exchange of dollars into pounds.

Cocaine has become Hezbollah's second source of funding after Iran, according to an investigation by the newspaper Le Point. The US Treasury lists around 2,000 individuals and companies linked to Hezbollah, making them among the largest drug traffickers in the world.

Among the Lebanese diaspora, estimated at between 12 and 18 million people across the South American continent, Hezbollah has concentrated in the tri-border region (Paraguay, Brazil, Argentina), where money laundering, drug trafficking and banditry thrive. Ciudad del Este, in Paraguay, has been one of its strongholds for more than thirty years. In 2018, Brazilian police arrested Ahmed Assad Barakat there, suspected of being one of Hezbollah's financiers.

Today, 40 years after its creation, Hezbollah appears more powerful than ever, even stronger than during its last armed confrontation with Israel in 2006.

Lebanon, for its part, has never been so exhausted and divided. A spillover of the war from Gaza to Beirut would plunge the country into total uncertainty.

ISRAELI STRIKES AGAINST HEZBOLLAH

IN LEBANON INTENSIFIED

"The army has struck more than 1,100 targets in Lebanon in the last 24 hours," it said in a statement, specifying that these were "buildings, vehicles and infrastructure where rockets, missiles, launch pads (of rockets) and drones constitute a threat" to Israel.

"We are targeting primarily the combat infrastructure that Hezbollah has been building for twenty years," said army chief of staff Gen. Herzi Halevi, adding that the army was "preparing for the next phases" of the operation, according to an army statement.

Hezbollah's commander for the southern Lebanon front with Israel, Ali Karaké, was also targeted by an Israeli strike on the southern suburbs of Beirut on Monday evening, a source close to the pro-Iranian group said. Ali Karaké is Hezbollah's military number three, the source added, without being able to specify his fate. The number two, Ibrahim Aqil, was killed in an Israeli strike on the southern suburbs on Friday and the number one, Fouad Chokr, in a similar raid on this Hezbollah stronghold on July 30.

The Lebanese Ministry of Health said the strikes killed at least 274 people, including 21 children, according to the latest report. The Israeli strikes also injured around 5,000 people "in less than a week," according to the same ministry.

Netanyahu's War Aims

By targeting this region of Lebanon, Israel is mainly seeking to push back and weaken Hezbollah, Hamas' unconditional supporter in the war in Gaza. The day after the Hamas attack, on October 8, 2023, the Shiite movement Hezbollah opened a front against Israel in "support" of Hamas, vowing to continue attacking Israel "until the end of the aggression in Gaza."

For a year now, cross-border clashes between the IDF and Hezbollah have been taking place almost daily, so much so that the Israeli population of northern Israel fled in October 2023 and has still not returned.

On Thursday, after Israel's bombing of Hezbollah's communications devices, Benjamin Netanyahu declared that the "return of the people of the north [of Israel]" was a new war objective. "No country in the world would accept that its cities are under continuous rocket fire. We do not accept it either. We will take all necessary actions to restore security and bring our people home," the leader justified.

Hezbollah strongholds targeted

Benjamin Netanyahu made good on his threats on Monday by launching a massive wave of strikes against Hezbollah facilities. A military official said the Israeli army was currently focusing "only on the air campaign" against Hezbollah, whose strongholds are in southern Lebanon, the southern suburbs of Beirut and the east of the country.

The first objective of Monday's operation is to "reduce threats" from Hezbollah, the second is to push Hezbollah back from the Israeli border to the north, and the third is to destroy infrastructure built near the border by the Radwan unit, Hezbollah's elite force, a military official detailed at a press conference.

Warnings have been issued to the Lebanese population by the Israeli army. "We advise civilians in Lebanese villages located in or near buildings and areas used by Hezbollah for military purposes, such as those used to store weapons, to immediately seek shelter for their own safety," army spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said at a press briefing.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel was reversing the "balance of power" in the north of the country.

"Israel's policy is not to wait for threats but to anticipate them, which is what we are doing," he said at a security meeting in Tel Aviv, according to a statement from his office.

ALL ABOUT THE EXPLOSION OF HUNDREDS

BEEPERS USED BY HEZBOLLAH

In the eastern Bekaa plain, also a stronghold of the Islamist group, there were also reports of "dozens of injured" in the explosion of their pagers in this region. A little girl died from these injuries.

Among the victims of the explosions were the son of a Hezbollah MP and the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon, who was slightly injured.

Hezbollah had asked its members to stop using cell phones to avoid Israeli hacking and to use pagers to reach their units and communicate with each other.

Hezbollah quickly accused Israel of being "entirely responsible" for what it presented as a coordinated attack. Israel, blamed by Hezbollah, has not made any comment on the event.

Technological snub for Hezbollah

How could hundreds of beepers have exploded in salvos in the hand, pocket or backpack of their owner? Were the devices hacked remotely or were they previously tampered with? The number and timing of the explosions undermine the idea of ​​a technical problem.

The theory currently favoured by many experts is that of a "supply chain attack": an attack on the logistics chain, i.e. a modification or exchange of the devices during their manufacture or at a stage of their delivery. An explosive charge that could be activated remotely using a specific signal would then have been integrated into the beepers.

The hypothesis of a bomb placed in advance is all the more credible since there are precedents. Elijah J. Magnier, military analyst, also recalls on X that "Israel has a history of using booby-trapped explosive devices to target individuals and groups considered threats, particularly in conflicts with Palestinian factions and Hezbollah."

He is leaning towards the use of very powerful explosives such as "cyclotrimethylene trinitramine" or "pentaerythritol tetranitrate" of which "a small quantity can generate a high-speed explosion".

In 1996, Yehia Ayache, one of Hamas's main bomb-makers, was killed when his telephone exploded, booby-trapped by Israel.

If this hypothesis is valid, the question remains: when the addition of the explosive charge took place: directly in the factory responsible for manufacturing? Was the explosive charge added to the devices in transit? Or were the original beepers exchanged for booby-trapped devices during delivery?

An unnamed Hezbollah official told the Associated Press that the beepers were from a brand the group had not used before: Gold Apollo. The Taiwanese group that owns the brand said Wednesday that the devices that exploded were produced and sold by a partner company, BAC Consulting, based in Hungary.

"Our company only provides permission to use the brand and is not involved in their design and manufacturing. (...) The design and manufacturing of the products are the sole responsibility of BAC," Gold Apollo assured in a statement. BAC Consulting is registered in Budapest, but it officially has only one employee, and the official address is a simple mailbox with no physical presence.

According to the New York Times, the pagers were intercepted and modified before reaching Lebanon.

"The explosive material, between 30 and 60 grams, was implanted next to the battery of each pager," as well as a detonator that could be triggered remotely, according to anonymous officials quoted by the American daily. Also according to the American daily, the explosive charge was triggered by a message received at 3:30 p.m. (local time), presented as sent by the leadership of Hezbollah.

More than 3,000 beepers had been ordered by Hezbollah a few days ago. A source close to the movement said that a "shipment of 1,000 devices" had been imported by the Lebanese movement, considered terrorist by many countries.

A Stern Warning to Hezbollah

The Hebrew state, towards which all eyes are turned, surprised the Shiite militia with a remote operation of unparalleled scale and scope. This is the biggest security breach observed to date within the party. This operation demonstrates that Hezbollah has been overtaken technologically," analyzes Janane Khoury, cybersecurity advisor, with L'Orient-Le Jour.

Hezbollah had, in fact, turned to these crude devices precisely to slip under Israeli radar. Today, the attack has helped "mutilate thousands of fighters and perhaps cripple the group's ability to respond if a broader conflict breaks out soon. It has also revealed the identities of the victims, shattering Hezbollah's painstaking efforts to preserve the anonymity of its members," notes The Atlantic.

Since the beginning of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, the border area of ​​southern Lebanon has been the scene of almost daily exchanges of fire between the Israeli army and Hezbollah, an ally of the Palestinian Islamist movement, which it supports in operations carried out in Gaza.

With 60,000 Israelis forced to flee the north of the country, Israeli officials have been saying for months that Hezbollah's rocket attacks on Israel are unacceptable and that Hezbollah must be destroyed.

Israel announced on Tuesday its decision to extend the aims of the war to the Israeli-Lebanese border, in order to allow the return of displaced people. The main objectives displayed so far were the destruction of Hamas, in power since 2007 in Gaza, and the return of the hostages. The day before, the Israeli Defense Minister had warned that in the absence of a diplomatic solution, "the only remaining means to guarantee the return of the inhabitants of northern Israel to their homes" would be "military action."

The series of attacks is a stark warning to Hezbollah.

This series of explosions marks an "extremely worrying escalation", fears the UN, which could lead to a conflagration in the region.

INDONESIA INAUGURATES ITS FUTURE CAPITAL NUSANTARA

TOWARDS AN ESCALATION OF THE CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST DEATH OF HAMAS LEADER

 ISMAEL HANIYED AND THE RIGHT ARM OF HEZBOLLAH FOUAD CHOKR CHARGED TO ISRAEL

“(Our) brother, the leader, mujahid Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of the movement, died in a Zionist raid against his residence in Tehran after his participation in the inauguration of the new Iranian president,” Hamas wrote in a statement .

One of the most senior leaders of Hamas

In 2017, he was elected head of the Hamas political bureau, succeeding Khaled Mechaal. Since then, the sixty-year-old has lived in voluntary exile between Qatar and Turkey. He was one of the negotiators in the ongoing talks between Israel and Hamas, mediated by Egypt, Qatar and the United States, to end the war in Gaza.

He was one of the Hamas leaders targeted by an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court since May for “war crimes” and “crimes against humanity” in connection with the October 7 attack on Israel.

In April, Ismaïl Haniyeh announced the death of three of his sons and four of his grandchildren in an Israeli attack on Gaza. On June 25, ten members of his family were killed in an Israeli strike, including his sister Zahr Haniyeh. Hamas number two, Saleh Al-Arouri, was killed in a drone strike in Beirut on January 2.

The Revolutionary Guards, the ideological army of the Iranian Islamic Republic, announced for their part that “the residence of Ismail Haniyeh, head of the political bureau of the Islamic resistance of Hamas, was hit in Tehran, and (. ..) he and one of his bodyguards died as martyrs,” according to a statement on their Sepah information site. Ismaïl Haniyeh went to Tehran to attend the swearing-in of the new Iranian president on Tuesday Massoud Pezeshkian in front of Parliament.

During his inauguration speech on Tuesday Massoud Pezeshkian denounced Israel's “crimes” in the Palestinian territory, while Iranians present at the ceremony chanted “Death to Israel!” Death to America! ". “Those who supply the weapons that kill children in Gaza cannot teach lessons of humanity and tolerance to others,” he said, referring to the United States.

Iran, an ally of Hamas, does not recognize the Israeli state and has made support for the Palestinian cause a central element of its foreign policy since the Islamic Revolution of 1979

Hamas recognized as a terrorist organization by around thirty countries

In power in Gaza since 2007, Hamas is an Islamist movement, recognized as a terrorist group by around thirty countries, including the United States, Canada, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Australia and Japan. .

By its full name Islamic Resistance Movement, Hamas comes from the Muslim Brotherhood and was created in the wake of the first Intifada of 1987, which opposed the Israeli army and the Palestinian population. The Islamist movement, which does not recognize the State of Israel, has always had the main objectives of recovering the militarily occupied Palestinian territories and building a theocratic Palestinian state.

Since its creation, the movement has advocated armed struggle and rejected peace processes, such as the Oslo Accords of 1993. With its armed group, the Ezzedine Al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas has increased its attacks. Attacks to which Israel always responds, even if it also causes victims among Palestinian civilians.

Israel will not comment on the death of Ismail Haniyeh

During a press briefing on Wednesday, David Mencer, the Israeli government spokesperson, refused to comment on the assassination of Ismaïl Haniyeh. “We are not commenting on this particular incident,” he said. Earlier, the Israeli army also refused to comment on the event.

In accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 1701

Israel Katz, the Israeli foreign minister, sent a letter to dozens of his counterparts, calling on them to demand "an immediate cessation of Hezbollah attacks, its withdrawal north of the Litani River and its disarmament, in accordance with resolution 1701 of the UN Security Council.

“Israel is not interested in all-out war,” he wrote, adding that “the only way to avoid it is the immediate implementation of Resolution 1701” of the United Nations Security Council, adopted on August 11 2006, aimed at ending the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah.

He adds that with the strike against Fouad Chokr , Israel "sent a clear message: we will strike with great force anyone who harms us"

The Israeli army claimed to have eliminated the man it presented as the “right arm” of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Responsible for the precision missile project, he is also responsible for the attack on the Druze village of Majdal Shams, on the occupied Golan Heights, where a Falaq-1 rocket, fired on Saturday July 27, caused the death of twelve children. , aged 10 to 16, on a football field.

Fouad Chokr was placed in 2019 on the list of individuals sanctioned for “terrorism” by the US Treasury. Sitting within Hezbollah's highest military body, the "jihad council", which makes strategic decisions, he is said to have played a key role in the bomb attack which targeted the American marine barracks in Beirut in 1983, killing 241 U.S. service members and injuring 128 others

Towards regional escalation?

Two questions immediately arise.

First, how will Iran react, knowing that Haniyeh was under its protection when he was eliminated? His death could spark an immense wave of anger in Iran and lead to reprisals against Israel, in addition to those of Hamas.

Tensions between Iran and Israel have been very high for a long time. In April, Tehran responded to an Israeli strike on its consulate in Damascus, which left several senior Revolutionary Guard Corps officials dead, by launching more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel.

Haniyeh's assassination demonstrates the remarkable effectiveness of Israeli intelligence services regarding Iran. In recent years, several Iranian scientists involved in the nuclear program have been killed, including Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, considered the "father" of the program, who was shot dead by a sophisticated remotely controlled machine gun in 2020.

However, some Hamas leaders, targeted by Israel, appear to still be alive. Yahya Sinwar, Hamas' political leader in Gaza, apparently continues to direct operations. In July, Israel struck what was believed to be the hideout of elusive military leader Mohammed Deif. Hamas has not confirmed his death, and Deif had previously survived several assassination attempts.

The second major question is whether Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, will attack Israel at Iran's request.

Haniyeh's killing comes shortly after an Israeli airstrike in southern Beirut, where Israel believes it killed Fuad Shukr, a senior Hezbollah commander.

This airstrike threatens to increase tensions in the region. If Iran decided to retaliate, it could do so through Hezbollah in Lebanon. A massive Hezbollah missile offensive could overwhelm Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system.

Iran could also mobilize other allies, such as Shiite groups in Syria and Iraq, as well as the Houthis in Yemen, who recently launched a drone attack on Tel Aviv, to which Israel quickly responded.

The death of Hamas's political leader and that of Hezbollah's right-hand man raise serious questions about the future of negotiations regarding the war in Gaza. They could well cause a major escalation in the conflict in Gaza, and potentially throughout the Middle East.

IN BANGLADESH NEARLY 200 DEATHS

IN STUDENT DEMONSTRATIONS

A system deemed unfair.

Abolished in 2018 after several weeks of demonstrations, then reinstated last June by the High Court of Dhaka, the quota system, based on "merit", has been at the center of violent clashes between students and the police in Bangladesh since beginning of July.

The latest report as of Tuesday showed 174 dead, including several police officers. Authorities also imposed a curfew, deployed soldiers across the country, and cut off internet access nationwide, which significantly restricted the flow of information.

The student movement behind these demonstrations suspended its protests on Monday for 48 hours. Its leader said he did not want reforms “at the cost of so much blood.”

A Prime Minister in bad shape

This dramatic situation results from the reestablishment at the end of June of the quota system, which reserves more than half of the civil servant positions, which are highly sought after and well paid, for certain categories of the population. Students consider this system discriminatory.

About 30% of these positions are allocated to the children of those who fought for Bangladesh's independence in 1971, 10% to women, and 10% to specific districts.

Critics of this system say authorities seek to favor the children of supporters of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who has ruled the country since 2009. Sheikh Hasina's father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, is the founding leader of Bangladesh.

Aged 76, Sheikh Hasina won her fourth consecutive election in January, in a vote without any real opposition. The recent violence has raised questions about her political future, but on Monday, in front of businessmen, she reaffirmed her determination to stay in power, declaring:

"Sheikh Hasina never runs away".

WHAT PLACE FOR

MASSOUD PEZESHKIAN

THE NEW REFORMATIVE IRANIAN PRESIDENT ?

Pezeshkian's promises

Former Minister of Health, the 69-year-old man was supported by former reformist presidents Khatami and Rouhani against his competitors who advocate a hard line towards the West. Virtually unknown when he was authorized to compete by the Guardian Council, the authority responsible for supervising the elections, Massoud Pezeshkian is discreet in appearance but speaks frankly.

Massoud Pezeshkian, the first reformist to become president of Iran since 2005 (Hassan Rouhani, in power from 2013 to 2021, was rather considered a moderate), promised to extend "the hand of friendship to everyone " in the country. And displays an open attitude towards the rest of the world which contrasts with his predecessor. The reformist candidate called for “constructive relations” with Washington and European countries in order to “remove Iran from its isolation”. He promised to negotiate directly with Washington for the relaunch of talks on Iranian nuclear power, which had stalled since the American withdrawal, in 2018, from the international agreement concluded in 2015. "If we manage to have American sanctions lifted, the people will have a more comfortable life,” he said. A victory for his opponent Saïd Jalili, with an "inflexible and ideological approach" would have put Iran and the West "on a trajectory of conflict", believes Ali Vaez, country expert within the NGO International Crisis Group.

Nuclear negotiations are currently at an impasse following the unilateral withdrawal of the United States in 2018.

Internally, he promised to remove restrictions imposed on the internet and pledged to “fully oppose” patrols by the moral police responsible for enforcing the obligation for women to wear the veil. While affirming his loyalty to the regime, Massoud Pezeshkian also became known for his criticism of the government during the vast protest movement triggered by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini in September 2022. "We oppose any violent and inhumane (...) especially towards our sisters and daughters, and we will not allow such acts to happen."

Massoud Pezeshkian also called for more representation of women, as well as religious and ethnic minorities, notably the Kurds and the Baluchis, in the government. He promised to reduce the inflation rate, currently around 40%.

In a televised debate with his rival Jalili, Pezeshkian estimated that Iran needed $200 billion in foreign investment, which he said could only be achieved by restoring ties with the world.

The doctor of Azeri origin, a minority from north-west Iran, gave hope to the reformist and moderate camps, totally marginalized in recent years by the conservatives and ultraconservatives.

Does the Iranian president really have power ?

The president in Iran has limited prerogatives. He is responsible for implementing, at the head of the government, the broad political guidelines set by the supreme guide, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has been head of state for 35 years. As president, Pezeshkian will occupy the second most important position in the Islamic Republic, and he will exert influence over domestic and foreign policy.

It determines the country's financial policies by proposing the budget bill and the appointment of the head of the central bank and the Minister of the Economy. When it comes to domestic politics, the role of president is not a completely empty shell either. “He can try to improve the economic situation by applying more rational management, for example by appointing technocrats to responsible ministries and organizations,” explains Azadeh Kian.

A president under the control of the Supreme Guide

But these positions, even very critical ones, will hardly be able to have any major effect. Experts say Pezeshkian will face serious challenges in a country where almost all state institutions are controlled by conservatives. "It is not the president who decides the overall strategies of the Islamic regime," emphasizes Azadeh Kian, professor of sociology at Paris Cité University.

“The president has a little room for maneuver, but for military, foreign policy or regional issues, it is the Supreme Guide, Ali Khamenei, and the Revolutionary Guards who define the orientations.”

Azadeh Kian, professor of sociology at Paris Cité University

He will also have limited power over Iran's police, and virtually no power over the army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran's ideological army. Iranian military forces answer directly to the supreme leader.

Massoud Pezeshkian will also have to deal with a Parliament with an ultraconservative majority, which votes on laws and must give its assent to the composition of the government. The president "will undoubtedly have difficulty getting ministers who are too reformist to accept", anticipates Azadeh Kian.

A “conservative reformer” ?

Massoud Pezeshkian will therefore not be able to radically change the line of the country. But "he could improve Iran's image through a calming speech, and why not encourage the Guide to move towards negotiations with the West, of course in exchange for important compensation", estimates Azadeh Kian.

According to specialists, this election is unlikely to shake the foundations of the regime. “Massoud Pezeshkian is a reformer,” explains Thierry Coville, “but he defines himself as a reformer-conservative, he uses a lot of religious references...

All of this could help make him an 'acceptable' reformer in the eyes of Ali Khamenei."

80 YEARS OF THE LANDINGS IN NORMANDY

THE ALLIES WITHOUT RUSSIA BUT WITH UKRAINE

Joe Biden landed on Wednesday morning at Paris-Orly airport, thus opening a French sequence centered on the major international ceremony on Thursday at Omaha Beach, celebrating the 80th anniversary of June 6, 1944, the famous D-Day. Eight decades later, on the same beach of “bloody” Omaha, the Allies meet again this Thursday, June 6, 2024 without Russia in Normandy, but alongside the Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelensky, to celebrate the victory over Nazism as war rages again in Europe.

Nearly 130,000 soldiers from allied countries but also from Germany were buried in around thirty cemeteries in Normandy. But thousands of other graves also tell the horror of war, those of civilian victims. From June to September 1944, 20,000 civilians died from bombs in Normandy towns.

World leaders including French President Emmanuel Macron, US President Joe Biden, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, King Charles III of England and his son Prince William, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, take part in a significant day of tributes. This day began with a British ceremony in Ver-sur-Mer, Calvados, early in the morning.
A ceremony followed by a speech by the American president. “Here, on the shores of Normandy, the battle between freedom and tyranny would be decided,” said US President Joe Biden. “If you want to know the price of freedom, look around you,” continued the American president, pointing to the white crosses of the American cemetery which overlooks Omaha beach, where 2,500 GIs were killed or injured on June 6 1944.

Then after a strong tribute to the freedom fighters, the soldiers of D Day, Joe Biden drew a parallel with the situation in Ukraine to dispel any ambiguity about the arrival of the Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelensky and the historical absence of Russia.

“Isolationism was not the answer eighty years ago and it is not the answer today,” he added, using the situation in Ukraine as an example. “Ukrainians fight with incredible courage, they endure enormous attacks, but they never give up. »

The announcement of the arrival of President Volodymyr Zelensky to the commemorations of the landing of June 6, 1944 in Normandy, has in fact revived questions about the troubled role of the former Soviet socialist republic vis-à-vis the German occupier during the Second War. worldwide.

In 1939, the German-Soviet pact sealed the division of Poland between Berlin and Moscow. Ukraine then saw its western borders expand to include Bessarabia (now Moldova) and other annexed territories, leading to forced Sovietization and the Holodomor famines, which caused between 2 ,6 and 5 million deaths.
When, in 1941, Nazi Germany and its allies launched Operation Barbarossa and invaded all of Poland and Ukraine, local populations initially saw it as liberation from the Soviet yoke. In Western Ukraine, nationalist groups, already repressed between the two wars, then tried to take advantage of local resentment to establish a Ukrainian state under the leadership of Stepan Bandera, subject to Berlin...

This Thursday, June 6, 2024, heads of state, 250 veterans and a large audience pay tribute to those who gave their lives to drive out Nazi barbarity and remind people of what war is. 80 years later, it is back, at the gates of Europe.

LIAR POKER OR TOWARDS AN AGREEMENT

BETWEEN HAMAS AND ISRAEL ?

This agreement provides in particular for a withdrawal of the Israeli army from Gaza for six weeks as well as the release of the hostages.

A ceasefire agreement in three phases

This roadmap, unveiled on May 31, 2024 by the American president, aims to achieve, in stages and under conditions, a permanent ceasefire almost eight months after the start. of the war, triggered on October 7 by a bloody attack by Hamas against Israel.

“It is time for this war to end,” declared Joe Biden from the White House, calling on Hamas to accept the Israeli plan, transmitted through Qatar.

“We cannot let this opportunity pass,” he added. The first phase, according to Joe Biden, would be a ceasefire accompanied by a withdrawal of Israeli troops from “inhabited areas of Gaza” for a period of six weeks.

The end of the fighting would also be accompanied by the release of certain Israeli hostages kidnapped on October 7 in Israel, notably women and the sick, as well as the release of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. In the second phase, the American president spoke of the "permanent" cessation of hostilities and the release of all hostages. The third and final phase would concern the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip.

“Hamas views positively what was included today in US President Joe Biden's speech regarding a permanent ceasefire, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, reconstruction and the exchange of prisoners,” Hamas said. declared the movement.

Reaction from Israel

Netanyahu recalls that an agreement on a “permanent ceasefire” includes the “destruction” of Hamas.

“Israel's conditions for stopping the war have not changed,” Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu's office said on Saturday.

The Prime Minister's Office reaffirms that the Israeli plan includes the "release of all hostages" held, as well as the "destruction" of the Palestinian Islamist movement, and assurances that Gaza will no longer pose a threat to Israel.

Hamas position

Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh reiterated Friday that the movement's "demands", starting with a permanent ceasefire and a total withdrawal of Israel from the Gaza Strip, were "non-negotiable." .

Situation on the ground

Joe Biden's announcement came at a time when Israeli forces advanced to the center of Rafah, a town in the south of the Gaza Strip that has become the epicenter of the conflict, and took control of the "Corridor of Philadelphia", a strategic buffer zone on the border between this Palestinian territory and Egypt.

The withdrawal of Israeli troops would also allow the reopening of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt, closed since May 7, greatly facilitating the delivery of humanitarian aid. Egypt will host a meeting on Sunday with Israel and the United States on "the reopening of the border crossing" to Gaza, according to the Al-Qahera News media, close to Egyptian intelligence.

Israel's military movements have been increasingly contested by the international community in recent weeks, particularly due to bombings and ground operations carried out on the city of Rafah. The situation remains very complex around Gaza.

UNDERSTANDING HOUTHI ATTACKS

IN THE RED SEA IN THE ISRAEL-GAZA WAR

Indeed, according to their official statements, the Houthis will continue their attacks against ships passing through the area as long as Israeli operations continue in Gaza. Although the objective is to harm Israeli interests, Israel and its seafront in the Eastern Mediterranean have been relatively spared from a maritime perspective.

However, with the entry of the Houthis into the war, the conflict took on a new geographic dimension, moving from a regional to a global scale. It now directly threatens ships transiting in the Red Sea, between the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Suez Canal, two strategic passages essential for the free flow of global trade.

Around 30% of the world's container volume (15% of global trade) passes through these routes.

Among the first collateral victims are the Suez Canal, which announced a drop of almost 50% in its revenues and 37% in the number of passages. The majority of shipowners, such as MSC, Maersk and CMA-CGM, prefer to bypass the Red Sea via the Cape of Good Hope, increasing the distance by 6,000 km and freight costs.

The operational and media strain created by the conflict in the Red Sea has diverted attention from the Indian Ocean, where pirates have resumed their activities since the end of November 2023. Civil and military ships deployed in the area face to different threats.

It is crucial to distinguish attacks by the Houthis, a pro-Iranian paramilitary insurgent group with political, strategic and symbolic objectives targeting Israeli interests and its allies, from pirate attacks, which are motivated by financial gain. The Qaedist group Al-Shebbab plays an indirect support role for Somali pirates.

In mid-March 2024, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, leader of the Houthi rebels, announced his intention to expand his attacks to the Indian Ocean, making these distinctions all the more important.

The Houthis' campaign against maritime trade in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is now entering its sixth month, and the situation remains favorable to the Houthis. Western military pressure has failed to prevent the Houthis from carrying out their strikes in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. The diplomatic route seems ineffective, even counterproductive.

In November 2023, in response to the Israeli offensive on Gaza, the Houthis declared that ships with a real or perceived affiliation with Israel would potentially be targeted if they passed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait or the Red Sea.

This resulted in a series of missile and drone strikes against maritime targets, beginning with the spectacular seizure of the Israeli vessel Galaxy Leader off the coast of Yemen in November 2023.

Initially focused on Israeli trade, the Houthi campaign has gradually expanded its targets to include the majority of Western merchant ships, perceived as allies of the Israelis. After five months of campaigning, maritime traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea decreased by 50% compared to the previous year.

In response, two naval coalitions mainly led by the West, notably the United States, were formed. Operation Poseidon Archer (OPA) aims to carry out strikes on Houthi territory, while Operation Prosperity Guardian (OPG) is responsible for escorting civilian ships through the strait. Added to this is the European operation Aspides, with a similar mandate.

These limited armed operations offer, at the end of May 2024, no prospect of a diplomatic or military resolution. British and American strikes on Yemen have not produced significant effects on the Houthis' strike capabilities.

A “Houthi Yemen”

The Houthis are taking advantage of this complex situation. Originally from northern Yemen, they consider themselves legitimate to rule over “their” Yemen. Nine years after their successful insurgency, the Houthis find themselves in a favorable position.

They dominate northern Yemen and see themselves as victors in a proxy war waged by the West. Their experience of Saudi and Emirati bombings allows them today to reduce the effectiveness of Western strikes.

The failure of military options and the West's refusal to recognize a “Houthi Yemen” allowed the Houthis to take advantage of their adversaries' lack of leverage.

In the context of the post-October 7, 2023 crisis, the Houthis and the Iranians have reached an agreement to launch an anti-Israeli campaign.

This campaign strengthens their alliance with Iran, legitimizes their position and generates significant popular support among the Arab populations. In addition, it weakens Saudi power and strengthens Houthi control over maritime trade around Yemen.

The prospect of peace between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis paradoxically perpetuates hostilities. After eight years of conflict, the two sides signed a ceasefire, but negotiations remain complicated. Saudi Arabia wants comprehensive peace for Yemen, while the Houthis are only negotiating peace between themselves and the Saudis.

The Saudi policy of “stabilization at all costs” of its neighborhood pushes Riyadh to tolerate the excesses of the Houthis. Saudi authorities do not condemn the Houthis when they launch missiles over their territory to strike Israeli targets.

This behavior highlights the political dilemma facing Saudi Arabia, especially when considering the arsenal of anti-missile batteries deployed along its 1,800 km coastline on the Red Sea, intended to counter strikes from the Yemen.

The official Saudi press no longer describes the Houthis as terrorists and no longer reacts with outrage to border skirmishes involving forces allied to the Houthis.

Furthermore, the Americans, keen to preserve their relations with a kingdom that is moving further and further away from the American strategic umbrella, are avoiding putting pressure on the Saudis regarding the situation in Yemen, for fear of accelerating the deterioration of a alliance already less strategic than before.

Black gold and global strategic realignment

The disintegration of historic alliances in the Middle East, against a backdrop of global strategic realignment, has created a security vacuum that the Houthis are exploiting.

The Middle East and the United States are no longer essential to each other. The US shale gas boom, although now in decline, has reduced US economic interest in the Middle Eastern market, while the US "pivot" to Asia and the war in Ukraine have become the new priorities from Washington.

At the same time, the Gulf countries now export more than 70% of their gas and oil production to Asia, in particular to China, which is not involved in the conflicts in the Middle East and which, on the other hand, except Singapore, has no particular sympathy for Israel.

It is therefore understandable that it was China, the main client of Iran and Saudi Arabia, which negotiated a de-escalation agreement between these two regional rivals in March 2023. The Gulf petromonarchies, now dependent on Asia for their income, are therefore more attentive to their interests.

It is in this global context that we must understand the Houthis' announcement stipulating that ships affiliated with Chinese interests would not be targeted.

Russian ships also benefit from the leniency of the Houthis because of Russia's alliance with Iran and China, the largest customer of Russian oil.

Furthermore, the American withdrawal from the region has not been compensated by the emergence of an equivalent security actor, China having neither the means nor the will to assume this role. As for regional powers, they have no credible means to counter the Houthi threat.

The Houthis are exploiting this security breach, knowing that no state actor is ready to engage in a new conflict in the Middle East.

PAPUA NEW GUINEA

MORE THAN 2000 PEOPLE BURIED ALIVE

IN A LANDSLIDE

Authorities in Papua New Guinea have begun evacuating around 7,900 people threatened by a possible new landslide in the country's central highlands.

A collapse of a section of mountain could have buried alive more than 2,000 people last Friday.

According to Niels Kraaier, Unicef ​​representative in Papua New Guinea, it is "very unlikely" that rescuers will find survivors, given the severity of the landslide and the time that has passed since the event.

According to him, “it is not a rescue mission, but a recovery mission” of the bodies.

A PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MIDDLE EAST WITH THE DEATH OF IRANIAN PRESIDENT E. RAISSI ?

After the death of President Ebrahim Raïssi and his head of diplomacy, made official on Monday May 20 in a helicopter crash that occurred the day before in the north of the country, Vice-President Mohammad Mokhber was designated as head of the executive. . This is an interim appointment, while new elections are organized, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Monday. This vote will take place on June 28, state television reported.

National mourning for five days

Ebrahim Raïssi died after meeting his Azeri counterpart, Ilham Aliev, on Sunday morning on the occasion of the inauguration of a dam on the Araxes River, along the border with Azerbaijan. His helicopter crashed in thick fog while en route to the city of Tabriz.

National mourning was declared for five days. The funeral ceremony honoring the Iranian president and those who accompanied him, including influential Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, began Tuesday morning in Tabriz. The bodies will then be transferred to Tehran and the religious city of Qom for a funeral procession. The president's remains will be buried in his hometown, Mashhad, in the east of the country.

This death opens a period of political uncertainty in Iran, at a time when the Middle East is shaken by the war in Gaza and while the succession of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, Ali Khamenei, aged 85, is looming.

Also, then the national mourning for five days begins, several questions arise concerning the future of the country. Raïssi, a religious fundamentalist, was a supporter of excessive repression, of the return in force of the “moral police”, of the accelerated relaunch of the nuclear program.

He is also the man of rapprochement with Russia and China - the internal dictatorship going hand in hand with geopolitical developments and international alliances. The Sino-Russian-Iranian “convergence of struggles”.

Iranians will also remember him as the “judge of the gallows”, who, as a young prosecutor of the Islamic Republic in the 1980s, sent thousands of political prisoners to their deaths. The late president “was a man who had a lot of blood on his hands”, “responsible for atrocious human rights violations” in Iran, commented a White House spokesperson, John Kirby.

After having been the architect of intense repression in recent years, will the ultraconservative Ebrahim Raïssi have a successor in his image? Can his death destabilize the system?

No major shock for the Islamic regime

The structure of power in Iran does not suggest a major political shift in one of the most repressive countries in the world. The President of the Republic is in fact only a Prime Minister, an executive. The real holder of power in Iran is not the President of the Republic, it is the guide of the Revolution. Since 1989, and the death of the first supreme guide, former president Ali Khamenei has held this position.

In the Iranian Parliament, the reformists are largely in the minority, with 20 seats against 227 for the conservatives, out of a total of 290. Neither Ayatollah Khamenei nor the deputies will therefore push for the nomination for a moderate president. “The system will communicate a lot about [the] death [of Ebrahim Raïssi] and will stick to constitutional procedures to show that it works, while looking for a new recruit capable of maintaining conservative unity and loyalty to Khamenei ", explains to the BBC Sanam Vakil, specialist in international relations, in charge of the Middle East and North Africa at the Chatham House think tank.

Who will soon succeed the supreme leader ?

The Islamic Republic is also looking for a “new recruit” to ensure the ideological continuity of the regime. Aged 84, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is not only aging, he is also ill. For almost ten years, he has suffered from prostate cancer.

Due to this medical assessment, the name of Ebrahim Raïssi had been circulating for several years as a possible successor to the supreme guide of the revolution.

The death of the president on Sunday therefore revives speculation around this succession, which is already an opaque process. “The game is decided behind the scenes and in particular among the most radical, close to the current guide and the body of the Revolutionary Guards”, this paramilitary organization which has taken over large parts of the Iranian economy, explains for its part Jonathan Piron.

And yet the Iranian regime wants to be reassuring. On Sunday, the supreme leader said on the social network A message published even before the death of Ebrahim Raïssi was officially confirmed, suggesting that the internal political balances should not be upset...

It is true that the role of Ayatollah Raïssi, one of the pillars of the conservative and ultraconservative camps, a major element of the Iranian repressive apparatus since his election in 2021, was more akin to that of “simple executive cog following the instructions from the Supreme Leader » Ali Khamenei.

Status quo for Iranian diplomacy

With the death of President Raïssi and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Iran suddenly lost two important figures in its diplomacy. Since his election in 2021, Ebrahim Raïssi has tried to take up a particular challenge on the international scene: relaunching the nuclear agreement, in order to convince the United States to lift the embargo which has undermined the Iranian economy since May 2018.

This project should be, at least for the coming weeks, taken up by the new interim Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ali Bagheri, who is none other than the former chief negotiator of the Iranian nuclear issue. In the hours following his appointment on Monday, this seasoned 56-year-old diplomat held a first council with his deputy ministers, while Russia expressed in a press release its desire to “strengthen cooperation” between the two countries.

During a telephone interview the same day, he also called for "global and uninterrupted cooperation" with China, Iran's other strategic partner, according to the official Irna agency.

A silent revolt in society constantly repressed in blood

Despite the apparent unity of a regime which has today purged all its liberal elements, despite the fact that the president has become a simple executioner of the Supreme Guide... there are still clans vying for power. Between religious fundamentalists and the Revolutionary Guards, more interested in economic predation than dogma. Between supporters of excessive repression, and those who advocate a more measured approach.

More important than the identity of Raisi's successor, the succession of the Supreme Guide is another potential subject of discord, in a country in deep economic crisis, where a significant fraction of the population is hostile to the regime.

Alongside the economy, there is also religion, increasingly rejected, particularly by women who can no longer take it. After the death of Mahsa Amini at the hands of the “morality police”, arrested in September 2022 for incorrectly wearing the Islamic veil, followed months of demonstrations by men and women, and something like 500 deaths in the repressions..

STATE VISIT OF THE CHINESE PRESIDENT TO FRANCE

XI INFLEXIBLE JINPING

This meeting marked sixty years of diplomatic relations between Paris and Beijing, initiated in 1964 with the recognition of the People's Republic of China by General de Gaulle. However, this visit was nothing like a honeymoon.

Rarely has the contemporary world experienced such a geopolitical whirlwind. On one side, the West, with the United States at the head of the bridge, whose domination is called into question. On the other, the rest of the planet, grouped in a “global South” with nevertheless divergent interests, of which China is the figurehead.

Visiting France, Xi Jinping remained inflexible: on the issues of the war in Ukraine and economic competition, China has made no major concessions to President Emmanuel Macron.

The divisions of the West

The fact that Xi Jinping chose France as the initial stopover for his first trip to Europe is certainly not insignificant. He thus intended to salute a country which has never broken dialogue with the communist regime and which, since De Gaulle, has always followed a policy of east-west balance, without being subservient to Washington. The Chinese president, who was then to visit Serbia and Hungary, two other nations closer to Russia, wanted, through the choice of his destinations, to underline the divisions of the West.

Indeed, on a “historic” visit to Hungary, Xi Jinping also challenged the European Union this Thursday, May 9, 2024. “Sino-Hungarian relations are at their peak” in 75 years of history, Xi welcomed Jinping. Before his arrival, he had compared them to a "golden cruise" in a forum. "We challenged the geopolitical order together in an unstable international context", charting our path "as sovereign states in complete independence", a- he writes.

A nod to the go-it-alone strategy led by Prime Minister Viktor Orban within the European Union. While scrambling with Brussels, the nationalist leader has resolutely turned towards the East in recent years. And when Brussels distanced itself from Beijing, it instead strengthened ties, rejecting the ideological confrontation of the “blocs”.

This stay of almost three days is an opportunity to "take our strategic partnership to new heights", said the Chinese head of state, from cultural exchanges to economic cooperation, while the Asian superpower has become the leading investor in Hungary last year

In addition, the fact that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz did not join Emmanuel Macron and Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, to welcome Xi Jinping to Paris, was also interpreted as a sign of the difficulties of the West to remain united.

The war in Ukraine

Thus the levers available to France and the Europeans to reduce China's role in the war in Ukraine are limited. The Chinese president certainly supported an “Olympic truce” during the Paris Games this summer. But Xi Jinping remains Vladimir Putin's main ally, whom he is due to receive soon. The Chinese president appears far from abandoning his support for the Russian war effort even though he has repeated that he is not supplying heavy weapons to Moscow.

Economic competition

The economy was obviously at the heart of this meeting.

If the two leaders, meeting with Ursula van der Leyen, pretended to want to move forward, they did not hide the tensions which are accumulating on trade. One of the French president's main objectives during this state visit was to advocate for a rebalancing of trade relations between Europe and China.

Xi Jinping said he was open to new high-level discussions on trade frictions while rejecting the idea of ​​an "overcapacity problem" of China flooding European markets to sell its production. France's trade deficit with China, of 46 billion euros in 2023, remains abysmal.

Several commercial agreements were signed on Monday May 8 in the fields of energy, finance and transport, the Elysée announced. Among the announcements is a contract for Suez to build a factory intended to produce energy from sludge from around fifty wastewater treatment plants in southern China, for nearly 100 million euros.

The railway manufacturer Alstom has also obtained contracts to supply electric traction systems for metro lines in Beijing, Wuhan and Hefei. On the financial side, the insurer Groupama will create a joint venture with Shudao Group “on green finance”.

A state visit which, however, ended in diplomatic failure for France.

EXTRAORDINARY LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS IN INDIA

A logistical challenge for the country nicknamed “the largest democracy in the world”.

In total, 968 million Indians out of 1.4 billion inhabitants are expected to elect the 543 members of the lower house, more than the total population of the United States, the EU and Russia combined. . Ballots across the country will be counted on June 4.

Results are usually announced the same day.

More than six weeks of voting

The vote will therefore be spread over 44 days, or more than six weeks. It started on April 19 and will end on June 1, the Election Commission of India announced at a press conference on March 16. Throughout this period, voters will be asked to vote in stages, depending on the state or territory where they live. In total, there will be seven voting phases: April 19, April 26, May 7, May 13, May 20, May 25 and June 1. And to add complexity, if some of the 29 states and seven territories that make up the federation will vote in one day, others, notably Uttar Pradesh, will vote in several.

However, the same electoral system applies everywhere: a first-past-the-post ballot. Each voter chooses a candidate from among all those proposed to him and the one who receives the most votes is declared elected.

A total of 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of the Indian parliament, are up for grabs for a five-year term. In addition, there are two seats reserved for the Anglo-Indian community, whose members are appointed by the Indian president.

In a country long dominated by the caste system, 84 of the 543 seats are reserved for candidates from scheduled castes - that is to say Dalits (or Untouchables), in order to ensure their representativeness.

On the other hand, although the Indian government passed a bill in September aimed at reserving a third of seats for women, it will take several years before this measure comes to fruition. Currently, female MPs represent only 15% of Parliament.

A multi-party democracy but two dominant parties

A multi-party democracy, India has around 2,660 registered political parties. More than 8,000 candidates will try to run for a parliamentary mandate under the labels of these multiple groups. In 2019, only 36 parties managed to send at least one representative to the Lok Sabha.

But in reality, two parties dominate Indian political life: the nationalist BJP of Narendra Modi, and the Congress Party, the main opposition party long led by the family of Nehru Gandhi. He advocates “securalism”, that is to say the benevolence of the State towards all religions. To establish their influence in Parliament, everyone is at the head of coalitions. The BJP is thus the main component of the National Democratic Alliance, a formation classified to the right and the center right, and the Congress is for its part at the head of the United Progressive Alliance, classified to the center left.

Hindu nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi is almost certain – in the face of struggling opposition – to win these elections extended over six weeks. He is still very popular after two terms during which India increased its diplomatic influence and economic weight. In 2019, the BJP won an overwhelming victory with 303 seats and its coalition, 353. The Congress party, for its part, had obtained 52 seats, and 91 with its allies.

If Prime Minister Narendra Modi, 73, wins this new election, he will sign for fifteen years at the head of India. However, after a decade in power, he enjoyed an 80% favorable opinion, according to a Pew survey published last year.

IRAN'S ATTACK ON ISRAEL TOWARDS 

A REGIONAL EMBRACING ?

The Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1, 2024 beheaded the high command of the Al-Quds Force, the branch of the Revolutionary Guards responsible for external operations, in Syria and Lebanon.

At the same time, Iran's allies, Lebanese Hezbollah and Yemeni Houthi rebels have carried out anti-Israeli attacks, the former firing two rocket salvos within hours at the Israeli-occupied Golan, and the latter launching drones towards Israeli territory.

The Israeli army claimed to have “foiled” the attack, intercepting “99% of the shots” thanks to its defense system and the help of its allies.

According to its spokesperson, three hundred projectiles were launched against the Jewish state (one hundred and seventy drones, thirty cruise missiles and one hundred and ten ballistic missiles), of which "only a few fell on Israeli territory", notably at Nevatim Air Base in the Negev.

The Israeli army has so far reported only one serious injury, a 7-year-old girl, hit in the head by shrapnel from a shell thrown to intercept an Iranian projectile.

Iran estimated, Sunday morning, that the attack carried out overnight against Israel had "achieved all its objectives", through the voice of its head of the armed forces. "We have no intention of continuing this operation, but if the Zionist regime takes action against the Islamic Republic of Iran, whether on our soil or in the centers belonging to us in Syria or elsewhere, our next operation will be well more important than this,” warned General Mohammad Bagheri.

US President Joe Biden said US forces helped shoot down "nearly all" of the drones and missiles fired by Iran at Israel. Tehran "sent a message to the United States warning that its bases would not be safe if it cooperated with Israel for possible next [Iranian] actions."

Israel announced that it had intercepted, with the help of the United States and other allied countries including France and the United Kingdom, but also Jordan and Saudi Arabia, almost all of the 350 drones and missiles launched by Iran against its territory. The defensive operation was named "Iron Shield."

The region on alert

Jordan and Lebanon, Israel's neighbors, have announced the closure of their airspace, as has Iraq, which borders Iran. Also neighboring Israel, Egypt announced the placing of its air defenses on maximum alert and warned of a “risk of regional expansion of the conflict”. Saudi Arabia, for its part, called on all parties to “utmost restraint”

An emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council is to take place on Sunday, at the request of Israel. The head of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres, condemned the Iranian attack against the Jewish state on Saturday and denounced “a serious escalation”.

This is in fact the first time since 1979 that the mullahs' regime has carried out a direct attack against its Israeli enemy. This airborne military attack by Iran against Israel, launched overnight from Saturday to Sunday, could transform the Gaza crisis into a full-scale war in the Middle East.

“The Israeli-Iranian war is officially coming out of the shadows without us knowing for the moment with what intensity it will be waged openly,” deciphers L'Orient-Le Jour.

The risk of regional conflagration “at its peak” ?

for Tehran “The attack was a legitimate defensive measure following the Israeli action in Damascus and now 'the matter can be considered closed', declared the Iranian mission to the United Nations”. By launching a massive operation, which did not cause any casualties, against Israeli territory, Tehran hopes to have reestablished its deterrence without provoking an Israeli response.

For Daniel Hagari, spokesperson for the Israeli army, this “direct attack launched from Iranian soil” is a “dangerous escalation”. The war cabinet gathered around Benyamin Netanyahu would study different options such as air strikes or the launch of drones on Iran, possibly on military bases or nuclear installations but more likely on Hezbollah in Lebanon .

In any case, it seems clear that the Israeli response will be carried out after consultation with the United States, which has called for a G7 meeting for this Sunday.

This meeting of G7 leaders should put pressure back on Iran, which continues to develop its nuclear program.

TURKIYE A SCANTING BACK FOR ERDOGAN DURING THE MUNICIPALS

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan conceded on Sunday the historic victory of the opposition in the municipal elections, which according to him constitute a "turning point" for his camp, in power since 2002. The counting of nearly 99% of ballot boxes across national confirms that the Turkish opposition has inflicted its worst electoral debacle on the head of state's AKP (Islamo-conservative) party in two decades.

“We didn’t get the results we wanted.” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan conceded "a turning point" for his camp on Sunday March 31, after the historic victory of the opposition in the municipal elections.

The leading opposition party, the secular Republican People's Party (CHP), beat the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in number of votes, totaling 37.7% of the votes cast. , compared to 35.5% for the AKP. Not only does the opposition retain the town halls of Istanbul and Ankara, but it has imposed itself in a large number of other cities and villages that it had not managed to conquer until then, including strongholds of the AKP.

For many observers, the very popular mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, now has a route to the 2028 presidential election. The CHP, a social democratic party, has won many other town halls, such as in Bursa, an important industrial city in the northwest of the country, which had been acquired by the AKP since 2004. Besides Izmir, the third city in the country and stronghold of the CHP in the West, and Antalya, in the South, the first opposition movement achieved a spectacular breakthrough in Anatolia. He is leading the race in provincial capitals long held by the AKP.

“The voters have chosen to change the face of Turkey,” said CHP leader Ozgür Ozel. “Those who were ignored sent a clear message to those who run this country,” added CHP Mayor of Ankara, Mansur Yavas.

The pro-Kurdish DEM party has secured a comfortable lead in several large cities in the Kurdish-majority South-East, including Diyarbakir, the informal capital of Turkey's Kurds.

Erdogan promises to “respect the decision of the nation”

From his party headquarters in Ankara, in front of a dejected and unusually silent crowd, the Turkish president promised to “respect the decision of the nation”. Resigned, he spoke of the "four years of work (...) not to be wasted" between now and 2028, a way of ruling out the possibility of an early election which would allow him to run again.

The country's very poor economic situation, inflation, the rate of which reached 80% at the end of 2022 and remained at 67% in February, and the resulting increase in the cost of living largely explain the verdict of the voters. These factors likely encouraged disaffected AKP voters to stay home.

IN HAITI THEATER OF VIOLENCE BETWEEN GANGS AN AIR BRIDGE FOR HUMANITARIAN AID  IS PUT IN PLACE

The UN mission also specified that a fraction of staff would be temporarily relocated "outside" the territory, while the arrival of other "crisis" staff was expected. This decision is not unique: the European Union announced on Monday that it had evacuated all of its personnel from Haiti. Foreign Affairs Minister Stéphane Séjourné also said France's "non-essential personnel" had been evacuated from the capital Port-au-Prince on Tuesday morning.

In addition, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed hope on Wednesday that the new Haitian transition council could be formed "in the coming days", which would allow the deployment of a security force in the country plagued by gangs.

A country plagued by gangs

Indeed, since the end of February, the capital Port-au-Prince has been the scene of violence. Militias target strategic sites such as the presidential palace, police stations and prisons. Administrations and schools in the Haitian capital are closed due to clashes between the police and armed gangs, which increased during the weekend of March 9. Militias have attacked hospitals, forcing medical teams to flee with patients - including newborns - according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM). Since February 29, more than 160,000 civilians have been displaced in the Port-au-Prince region. Yanick Lahens, winner of the 2014 Femina Prize for her novel "Bain de Lune", has "never experienced such violence" in her country, which is going through an acute political and security crisis.

The departure of Ariel Henry, the Prime Minister, was one of the major priorities of the armed factions. In the absence of a president and Parliament - the last head of state, Jovenel Moïse, having been assassinated in 2021 - Haiti has not organized elections since 2016. Ariel Henry, accused by the Port-au-Prince prosecutor's office Prince of the murder of Jovenel Moïse, should have left office at the beginning of February. On February 28, he agreed to "share power" with the opposition, as part of an agreement stipulating elections within a year. However, this concession was not considered sufficient: Jimmy Chérizier, an influential gang leader nicknamed "Barbecue", had made threats on Tuesday March 5, referring to a "civil war leading to genocide" if Ariel Henry remained in power. .

Finally, the head of the Haitian government, who was stuck in the American territory of Puerto Rico, gave in to pressure from regional partners. His departure was announced during an emergency meeting bringing together Caricom members and UN representatives in Jamaica. “The government that I lead cannot remain indifferent to this situation. As I have always stated, no sacrifice is too great for our homeland, Haiti,” declared Ariel Henry.

A transitional governance agreement

Following the announcement of Ariel Henry's resignation, Guyana and Caricom President Mohamed Irfaan Ali said he was "happy" to announce "a transitional governance agreement paving the way for a peaceful transition of power ". According to him, this outcome should lead to “a short-term action plan in terms of security” and “free and fair elections”.

According to Haitian writer Yanick Lahens, the gangs "have national and especially international sponsors." Indeed, due to its geographical position, Haiti is an ideal place of passage for all traffic. “The less institutions function, the more it suits these people,” she says. She also denounces “a collusion between part of the political class” and the gangs.

However, there remains "hope", according to her, which is "outside Port-au-Prince, which is a monster which devours and hides the rest of the country". There is "another country in which there are very few police officers” or even “no police officers at all, and where things work".

CHINA AN INCREASE IN THE MILITARY BUDGET CONTINUES IN A HOSTILE GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT

It also raises concerns in Taiwan, an island of 23 million inhabitants claimed by China, which hopes to "reunify" this island territory with the rest of the country, by force if necessary.

THE MEDIA WAR WAGED BY HAMAS AGAINST ISRAEL

And just after Iran and its nuclear program, two organizations appear on the podium of threats, considered from Tel Aviv: Palestinian Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah, which reportedly has "100,000 rockets" ready to be launched against the Jewish state. .

Hamas, with the atrocities committed in Israel on October 7, 2023, has not lost its reputation. And he knew how to use the media to spread the horror of their actions.

“We are fighting a battle, and more than half of this battle takes place on the media stage. We are therefore engaged in a media battle to win the hearts and minds of the members of our community,” Ayman already proclaimed in 2004 al-Zawahiri, formerly number two in Al-Qaeda and then leader after the elimination of Osama bin Laden in 2011, on the crucial role of the media sphere as an autonomous battlefield.

Al-Zawahiri's message in 2004 encouraged Iraq to mobilize all Muslims in a global jihad against what he perceived as a new American "crusade" against Islam. Al-Zawahiri emphasized the need to move al-Qaeda sanctuaries from rural areas to urban centers to exploit the media potential of urban conflicts.

Media use by civilians

This geographical shift was based on a strategic observation: the city, in contemporary asymmetrical conflicts, has become a real catalyst capable of fueling the “media war”. The destruction committed there by the enemy is more spectacular than in rural areas, the presence of thousands of civilians can make the attacker hesitate when launching his attacks, the number of collateral victims higher, the quantity of photos and videos taken there is more important – all elements which make it possible to better mobilize distant audiences against the army leading the offensive.

It is difficult not to see in the operating methods of Hamas currently implemented in Gaza a logic similar to that used by Al-Qaeda in Iraq in Fallujah (some 300,000 inhabitants) in 2004.
Moreover, by concentrating the defensive bastions either around a strategic mosque or around the Fallujah hospital, the terrorists not only benefit from the protection of human shields but also transform the operation into a real desecration in the eyes of the Muslim populations, the mosque taking on a sacred character. The desired objective: to awaken in the Umma the “reflex” of so-called “defensive” jihad.

This strategic approach persists in Hamas's current tactics in Gaza, implementing methods similar to those employed by Al-Qaeda in Iraq, such as the use of human shields and the concentration of operations in densely populated urban areas. The objectives are to maximize civilian casualties in the event of a strike, thereby provoking an emotional response and increased support from the local population.

Raising “the Arab street” and weakening Israel’s Arab partner regimes

Unlike Al-Qaeda, Hamas does not seek a priori to arouse jihadist vocations, but rather to raise "the Arab street", to radicalize it in order to weaken the Arab partner regimes of Israel and to isolate a Hebrew state keen to normalize its relations with its neighbors. Al-Qaeda strategists have also theorized the vocation of Palestinian jihad to undermine the legitimacy of Arab regimes at peace with Israel.

After two years of the signing of the Abraham Accords which helped to relax relations with other Arab countries - Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries - with the exception of Qatar, which supports the Muslim Brotherhood and Palestinian Hamas, which is an emanation of it - Israel's response against Gaza to Hamas attacks has seriously undermined the efforts of both sides...

The ideological and strategic connection between Al-Qaeda and Hamas sheds light on the ongoing conflict in Gaza, highlighting the importance of the media battlefield and the manipulation of the media to influence public opinion.

A POSSIBLE TRUCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST

ACCORDING TO JOE BIDEN

After almost five months of war, a lull could be looming in the Middle East. US President Joe Biden said on Monday that Israel was prepared to cease its military operations in Gaza during Ramadan, to allow the release of all hostages "Ramadan is coming and there was an agreement from the Israelis that they will not "would not engage in operations during Ramadan, in order to give us time to get all the hostages out" still on site, he said, interviewed Monday on the American television channel NBC.

Behind the scenes, negotiations launched several weeks ago are continuing under the leadership of the United States, but also Egypt and Qatar, while the Israeli offensive launched in retaliation for the deadly attack of October 7 is reportedly approaching 30,000 dead in the Palestinian enclave, according to the Islamist group's Ministry of Health. But the two camps still seem reluctant to put in place an agreement.

According to Israel, 130 hostages are still being held by Hamas in Gaza, 31 of whom are believed to have died, after the release of 105 hostages and 240 Palestinians detained by the Jewish state during a previous truce at the end of November, the only one that took place since the start of the conflict.

The mediators hope to obtain a break in the fighting before the start of Ramadan, the month of fasting for Muslims, which is due to begin this year on March 10 or 11. Delegates from Egypt, Qatar, and the United States, as well as representatives from Israel and Hamas, gathered in Doha on Sunday to resume discussions, which AlQahera News reports will be followed by meetings in Cairo.

These talks aim to follow the progress made during previous discussions held in Paris, where the head of Mossad, the Israeli intelligence agency, David Barnea, visited last Friday.

The Emir of Qatar in Paris

Talks continue in the French capital at the start of the week, marked by the arrival this Tuesday of the Emir of Qatar, a central player in the negotiations since the start of the conflict. Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani is scheduled for dinner this evening with Emmanuel Macron at the Élysée. According to Qatar's official news agency, the emir recently met Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Doha to discuss efforts to obtain an immediate and permanent ceasefire agreement.

Both camps far from an agreement

Recent statements by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could dampen hopes. In particular, he is maintaining his plan for a ground offensive on the densely populated town of Rafah, in the south of Gaza, where according to the UN, nearly a million and a half Palestinians have found refuge. Despite the concerns of the international community, he affirmed with certainty that this operation targeting the "last bastion" of Hamas would result in a "total victory" over the organization in "a few weeks". He stressed on Sunday that any truce would only "postpone" this offensive, emphasizing the possibility of an evacuation of civilians towards the "north of Rafah", outside the conflict zones.

For its part, Hamas has not yet officially commented on the truce proposal.

ISRAELI ARMY FLOODS TUNNELS

FROM HAMAS

“Various tools have been developed to send large volumes of water into the tunnels (...),” the army said in a statement.

“This capacity has been professionally developed, including analysis of soil and pipe characteristics” in the affected areas to ensure there is no damage to groundwater, she said. clarified, referring to a method used only in places where it was “appropriate”.

Seawater pumped into the Mediterranean

At the end of 2023, local media cited Israeli sources indicating that the army planned to flood the galleries with seawater pumped from the Mediterranean, off the small coastal territory.

The head of the army, Herzi Halevi, saw it as “a good idea”. But some scientists and humanitarian officials said they feared contamination of the water tables.

The Gaza Strip is between six and 12 km wide, and the salinization of groundwater is already a scourge there, made worse by rising ocean levels. Added to this is a chronically faulty wastewater disposal network and uncontrolled use of pesticides and herbicides.

In November, the UN humanitarian coordinator for the Palestinian Territories explained that she feared for the quality of water, including for “future generations”.

A network of underground tunnels sophisticated by Hamas

Hundreds of galleries have been dug under the border with Egyptian Sinai to move people, goods, weapons and ammunition between Gaza and the outside world.

After the war between Israel and Hamas in 2014, Hamas expanded the network, from which its fighters can emerge to fire their rockets towards Israeli soil. In a study published on October 17, the Institute of Modern Warfare at the American Military Academy West Point mentions 1,300 galleries over 500 kilometers.

The construction of this network of sophisticated underground tunnels by Hamas was a long-term project, spanning two decades. In the star-shaped tunnel, all sense of direction is abolished. Are we heading towards Gaza? Is it towards Egypt? We lose all points of reference. These tunnels are not built in a linear fashion, they are zigzag. They are on several levels. With arteries, rooms, halls, doors, electricity. a A military base under a civilian population.

It's a real military base. It is a military base under a civilian population.

They allow Hamas to operate far from the technological eyes of the State of Israel and the Israeli army, which is nevertheless one of the most efficient armies in the world.

The possibility of external influence, notably from Iran, is considered. Although this cannot be confirmed at the moment, there are similarities with other countries like North Korea or Iran, where wider tunnels could allow the passage of motorcycles or even trucks. It is also possible that certain locations are used for the manufacture and storage of weapons.

From a strategic perspective, a tunnel can serve a variety of purposes, including attacks, ambushes, kidnapping of civilians or soldiers, or even trafficking. Not all tunnels are the same, which means their detection and elimination may vary.

Current operation a considerable challenge

Underground warfare itself is complex, and combating underground tunnels has always been a major challenge for armies. Finally, a delicate human dimension is added to the situation, with priorities being the protection of hostages, innocent civilians in Gaza, and the safety of the soldiers engaged in these operations.

“For Israel, this is an existential war."

SANCTIONS AGAINST THE UN AGENCY

FOR THE PALESTINIANS

FACING THE INVOLVEMENT OF MEMBERS

IN OCTOBER 7

The United States and Germany, the two largest contributors, along with six other countries - Canada, Australia, Italy, the United Kingdom, Finland and the Netherlands - have suspended financial aid to following the involvement of at least twelve members of the agency out of 30,000 employees in Gaza in the massacres committed by Hamas on October 7 in the south of the Gaza Strip, which left nearly 1,200 dead. France, like Switzerland, declares that it does not plan a new payment in the first quarter of 2024”, but “will decide when the time comes on future conduct”.

10% of UNRWA employees have links with the terrorist group

Details of the affair were revealed by Israeli military intelligence before being passed on to the Americans. Philippe Lazzarini, head of UNRWA, confirmed these reports and revealed that the agency had terminated the contracts of some of its employees, simultaneously launching an independent and transparent investigation. Antonio Guterres, Secretary General of the UN, horrified by these revelations, specified that nine employees were fired, another lost his life, while the fate of the last two remains unknown. However, Israeli services estimate that the number of employees involved in blood crimes could be higher.

After expressing regret, Philippe Lazzarini described the reaction of contributing countries as "shocking", emphasizing the vital role of UNRWA in the survival of 2.2 million Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, facing a catastrophic humanitarian situation. .

The agency assumes responsibility for the education of more than half a million children, in addition to providing food assistance in dribs and drabs in an enclave where 80% of the population was already living below the poverty line before the war. This institution extends its action among refugees in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and the West Bank. Established in 1949 after the expulsion or flight of 700,000 Palestinians following the war that led to the creation of the State of Israel, it remains the most important agency of the UN. A notable particularity lies in the fact that only the Palestinian people benefit from refugee status from generation to generation, currently bringing the number of Palestinians supported by UNRWA to 6 million.

According to Israel, maintaining refugee status only exacerbates the conflict. Foreign Minister Israel Katz called on Philippe Lazzarini to resign, welcoming the cessation of international contributions. He believes that UNRWA will have no role after the war, accusing the agency of perpetuating the refugee issue, obstructing peace, and serving as Hamas' civilian army.

In December, the previous Minister of Foreign Affairs, Eli Cohen, denounced Antonio Guterres, accusing him of endangering world peace by harshly criticizing the impact of Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip on the civilian population.

ATTACK BY THE HOUTHIS

FROM AN AMERICAN WARSHIP

IN THE RED SEA

In recent weeks, the Red Sea has been the scene of several incidents of this type. At least six commercial ships were targeted by drones or missiles. The most spectacular attack dates back to November 19 when a Houthi commando seized a cargo ship belonging to an Israeli businessman. The Yemeni armed group filmed the operation and broadcast the images. The boat was taken to a port in Yemen. Its 25 crew members are still sequestered.

Their support for Hamas

The Houthis claim to attack boats with Israeli interests or a point of departure or arrival in Israel, in support of the Palestinians. They threaten all boats in the Red Sea, en route to Israel, as long as the populations of Gaza do not receive emergency humanitarian aid.

They invited themselves into the war. They show their support for Hamas and have several times directly targeted Israel by sending drones and missiles against its territory, notably against the city of Eilat, in the south. Devices almost all intercepted by Israel.

The axis of Iranian resistance in the Middle East

It's hard not to see Iran's hand in this. The Houthis belong to the so-called axis of Iranian resistance in the Middle East, alongside Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria. All these movements, enemies of Israel, are armed arms of Tehran in the region, even if they retain a certain autonomy.

The Houthis in fact have very sophisticated weapons, drones, cruise missiles, but also ballistic missiles capable of hitting ships, and therefore moving targets. Iran provides the Houthis with a major arsenal. The fact remains that Iran, the main ally of this Yemeni rebel group, the Islamic Republic, seems, for the moment, to want to avoid a regional escalation.

An obstacle to international trade

Additionally, the situation in the Red Sea is having a significant impact on maritime traffic, with a notable increase in insurance costs and adjustments to route plans for several vessels. The Houthis, a rebel group which exercises control over part of Yemen, particularly over the strategic strait regulating access to the Red Sea, pose a serious threat to international trade and freedom of navigation in this crucial region.

In fact, around a tenth of global maritime traffic passes through this area. The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, located in the south of the Red Sea between Yemen and Djibouti, is considered the 4th most important crossing point in the world for oil tankers.

Faced with this threat, Western countries are calling for international mobilization to secure this major trade route. However, the means to influence this rebel group are limited.

Among the options considered, the military option is on the table.

BHUTAN

REALM OF GROSS NATIONAL HAPPINESS

In the Kingdom of Bhutan, residents were recently called to the polls. They finally kept the former Prime Minister's party in power - but the stakes were slim: the two competing parties had similar programs.

Bhutan, a country like no other

Although this country is the size of Switzerland, it is perched in the Himalayas with a population ten times smaller, and it is the only country with a negative carbon footprint. It has almost 70% forests and almost no industries. This is part of its positive image, with a young and well-presenting royal couple. In this Buddhist kingdom of the Himalayas, Bhutan lives at another rhythm: that of the seasons, the Moon, religious rituals.

This State put forward the original concept of Gross National Happiness (GNH), which statistically is based on certain socio-economic, ecological or psychological criteria.

Bhutan deserves and cultivates its originality... In 1987, this Himalayan kingdom decided to restrict access to tourists to preserve religion and traditions. Since 1972, the notion of gross domestic product (GDP) has been replaced by that of GNH: gross national happiness.

On the main street, on Norzim Lam, in the absence of large stores, there are small shops, particularly those selling fabrics from which the national dress is cut: the elegant Kira of shimmering silk that the women drape and the Go, the coat of the men which evokes both a kimono and a Scottish kilt. Pride of the Bhutanese who wear traditional costume and wear a broad smile as if everyone seemed to enjoy a simple and communicative happiness.

A country where happiness and spiritual well-being have been at the heart of the constitution since 2008... This leads some to say that Thimphu would be the capital of "Shangri-La", this place imagined in the novel Lost Horizons (1933), by James Hilton in the 1930s, a utopian place of peace…

An economy at half mast

Bhutan's economy is one of the least developed in the world; it is based on agriculture, livestock breeding, logging, the sale of hydroelectricity to India and tourism.

In the north of the country, above 3,500 meters above sea level (Great Himalayan region), yak breeding predominates but loses profitability for breeders. This activity, in 2010, only represented 3% of the country's production of butter, cheese and meat. It has, on the other hand, the advantage of being used for traditional festivals and above all of being a tourist attraction.

Agriculture is largely subsistence and includes livestock. Mountains dominate the territory and make the construction of roads and other infrastructure difficult and expensive. The economy is closely aligned with that of India through strong trade and monetary ties and relies heavily on financial assistance from that country. The very neglected sector of industrial technology is not a priority and most production comes from family workshops.

The majority of development projects, such as road construction, rely on Indian seasonal labor. The hydroelectric production potential and tourism activity are the country's main capital resources.

Is Gross National Happiness enough?

The economy is nevertheless at half mast in Bhutan. Many young people have left the country. During the last elections in January 2024, the two parties which were in the running for this second round wish to revive an economy which they wish to be as green as possible, develop agriculture and create a special economic zone on the Indian border to attract foreign capital. ”.

Thus, the emphasis is placed more on economic recovery than gross national happiness, which no longer appears to be the priority.

WHY NATO LAUNCHES

OPERATION "STEADFAST DEFENDER"

THE MOST IMPORTANT SINCE THE COLD WAR

A necessity"

The operation is not a luxury, but a “necessity”. After two days of deliberations, the military committee of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) officially launched the start of “Steadfast Defender” this Thursday, January 18. Described as the Alliance's largest military exercise since the Cold War, the exercise will run from next week until May.

According to Admiral Rob Bauer, head of NATO's military committee, the operation will bring together around 90,000 soldiers from 31 allied countries as well as Sweden. No less than 50 warships, 80 aircraft and 1,100 combat vehicles will participate in this gigantic “war game”. A “record” figure in terms of soldiers, as highlighted by the head of the committee, bringing together the chiefs of staff of the armies of the 31 member countries of the organization.

“This is a record in terms of the number of soldiers,” reiterated Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer during the press conference, emphasizing the need to prepare for all eventualities in an era where “anything can happen at any time." He added that “the tectonic plates of power are shifting.”

These maneuvers will encompass the Atlantic area up to the eastern flank of NATO, according to the same press conference. They will adopt the form of a conflict scenario against an “adversary of comparable size”, according to the terminology of the Atlantic Alliance. Like the year 2021, they will involve the reinforcement of troops "from North America" ​​on the European continent.

The objective of this large-scale exercise, the most imposing since Operation Reforger in 1988 in the middle of the Cold War, has been declined.

“The security environment has become demanding,”

The joint NATO military exercise aims to improve the Allies' capabilities "to move quickly across the Atlantic and Europe to protect each other when necessary", explains Admiral Rob Bauer. The aim is to ensure that forces are trained, able to collaborate and ready to respond to any threat, regardless of where it comes from.

This coalition is of crucial importance at a time when "the security environment has become demanding", implicitly referring to Russia and its intervention in Ukraine. The conflict in Ukraine has demonstrated that, when it comes to security, “locality does not exist”. “All security is connected,” underlines Admiral Rob Bauer during the press conference.

A clear message

Beyond the technical aspects, the military committee seeks to convey a clear message with this operation called “Unshakeable Defender”. US General Christopher Cavoli, head of Allied Forces in Europe, insists the exercise will be a clear demonstration of the Alliance's unity, strength and determination to protect each other. Grant Shapps estimated that NATO faced "greater than ever" challenges from Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, warning that the Alliance's adversaries were “more connected to each other” than ever.

On the British side, 20,000 military personnel will participate in this exercise, highlighting the extent of the Allies' commitment to this initiative aimed at strengthening cohesion and preparation to face contemporary challenges. Units from the Royal Air Force, the Royal Navy and the army will be sent throughout Europe and beyond for this exercise called “Steadfast Defender”, London explained.

kyiv demands more resources

On the ground in Ukraine, Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer noted that the Russian navy and air force remained “considerable” forces. “Intense fighting” still takes place. “Last year, the world was perhaps a little too optimistic and it is therefore “important that in 2024 we are not too pessimistic,” said this senior Alliance official. The front line between the Russian and Ukrainian armies have remained largely unchanged in recent months, prompting Kiev to insistently request reinforcements in weapons and ammunition to envisage a significant breakthrough.

Ukraine particularly expresses the increased need for anti-aircraft defense means, while its infrastructure and cities are subject to daily bombardments. However, American military aid of more than 60 billion dollars is blocked in Congress due to resistance from Republican elected officials, while a European financial contribution of 50 billion euros over four years faces a veto from Hungary. A possible outcome could emerge during the summit of the Twenty-Seven scheduled for February 1 in Brussels.

Since the start of the Russian assault in Ukraine in February 2022, the Atlantic Alliance has strengthened its defenses on the eastern flank by deploying thousands of men. NATO seeks to send a message of deterrence, aiming to convince the Kremlin that its engagement in Ukraine will have significant consequences.

This Russian attempt to weaken NATO and the EU has, on the contrary, strengthened their determination. For the Baltic states, NATO represents the only guarantee of protection, and their membership is considered their best security insurance, according to the liberal newspaper The Economist. NATO has positioned multinational battalions in the Baltic states to delay any aggressive advance in the event of an invasion.

So far, Russia has not dared to challenge the Alliance, which remains more vigilant than ever since the start of the war in Ukraine.

IRAN/PAKISTAN CONFLICT IN

IN RECIPROCAL ATTACKS

The terrorist organization Jaish al-Adl

It did not take long for Islamabad to respond. Less than 48 hours after Iranian bombings in its western province of Balochistan, Pakistan struck the Iranian region of Balochistan-and-Sistan, near its border, on the morning of January 18. The operation resembles that carried out by Tehran. Iran declared on Tuesday that it had launched missiles against the bases of Jaish al-Adl, a Sunni armed group which is fighting for the independence of Baluchistan but has links with international jihadism, and has committed several attacks on its soil.

In response, the Pakistani Foreign Ministry indicated that its armed forces carried out "a series of surgical and coordinated military strikes against terrorist hideouts" in Iran, which left nine people dead, according to Iranian public television. friction between the two neighbors, at a time when, a little further to the west, the region is already under high tension due to the war between Israel and Hamas.

Iran intervenes against the terrorist organization Jaish al-Adl, whose headquarters is in Pakistan. Iran has attacked bases in the past, and even sent commandos a few months ago to catch leaders.

A delicate internal situation

Pakistan finds itself in a delicate domestic situation, with crucial snap parliamentary elections scheduled for February 8. A political maneuver within Parliament barred former Prime Minister Imran Khan, currently in detention, from participating in these elections. Imran Khan, Pakistan's most popular figure, is thus excluded from the electoral process. Faced with this, the provisionally ruling coalition, led by Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar, decided that it was imperative to fight back.
Less than a month before the elections, the coalition aspired to wash away the affront. This border region between Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran is notoriously difficult to access and characterized by precarious security. It is a place of passage for contraband, particularly drug traffickers, with clashes already documented in the past, allowing various organizations to establish themselves in the villages.

The West, China and Russia

For the first time, the West, China and Russia reacted. “They are a source of great concern, because they violate the sovereignty and territorial integrity of countries,” said Peter Stano, spokesperson for European diplomacy. Russia called on both countries to exercise "utmost restraint", while China said it "hopes that both sides can demonstrate calm". China has announced its intention to contribute to a resolution of the situation. With its influence in Pakistan, despite the latter's proximity to the United States, China also maintains excellent relations with Iran.

This initiative represents a new dynamic, where global powers are getting involved to ease tensions in a complex and volatile region.

NEW PRESIDENT LAI CHING’S BET TO PROTECT THE STATUS QUO IN TAIWAN WHILE CALLING FOR DIALOGUE WITH CHINA

In favor of the status quo

Caution in the United States

Never has the Chinese regime exerted so much pressure to influence the results of elections in this South East Asian democracy in its favor: naval and air maneuvers, satellite and observation balloons, massive disinformation campaigns, threats of economic sanctions. In recent days, five Chinese balloons had crossed the median line of the strait on Thursday, according to the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense, which had also spotted ten planes and six warships.

Reunification is historically inevitable, assured Xi Jinping during his New Year's greetings. The People's Liberation Army will crush any desire for independence, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Defense promised again yesterday.

WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST

A SENIOR MILITARY LEADER OF HAMAS ALLIED HEZBOLLAH KILLED IN LEBANON AND THE RISK OF THE CONFLICT SPREADING TO LEBANON ?

More than three months after Hamas' deadly attack on Israel, the conflict persists with devastating airstrikes by Israeli aircraft on Gaza. The Jewish state is also preparing its post-Gaza position, rejecting both Hamas and an "Israeli civil administration" in the Palestinian territory after the fighting. Antony Blinken, the American Secretary of State, begins a new tour of the Middle East this Monday, January 8 to avoid a regional escalation, while a senior military commander of Hezbollah was killed in a strike in southern Lebanon.

Senior Hezbollah military official killed in Israeli strike

The Israeli strike on January 8, 2024 targeted a senior Hezbollah military official, Wissam Hassan Tawil, in southern Lebanon, killing him. He played a key role in directing military operations in the South, from where Hezbollah has launched almost daily attacks against Israel for three months. In a statement released on Monday, the Israeli army claimed to have destroyed a Hezbollah building in Lebanon.
This attack comes after the death of Hamas number two, Saleh al-Arouri, and other officials in a strike attributed to Israel on January 2. In retaliation, Hezbollah fired 62 rockets at a military base in northern Israel.

The slain commander, Wissam al-Tawil, was also known as Jawad and led military operations in southern Lebanon. He was killed by “an Israeli strike which targeted his car in the village of Kherbet Selem”, about ten kilometers from the border with Israel. This is the highest-ranking Hezbollah military official killed since this powerful formation opened the front with Israel to support Hamas.

Many unknowns about the Radwan force

Wissam al-Tawil, known as Jawad, was notably responsible for directing military operations in southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah has been carrying out almost daily attacks against Israel for three months. The movement also reported that it was a painful loss.

According to several sources, the man was a commander of the Radwan force, considered Hezbollah's elite unit. He had been appointed a few weeks earlier. Information on this unit is scant. In November, Hezbollah, an ally of Hamas and Iran, claimed not to know the number of fighters in the Radwan force, whereas Israel estimated their number at 2,500.

A spread of the conflict in Lebanon with Hezbollah ?

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant threatens Hezbollah to reproduce in Beirut what is happening in Gaza. He announces the start of the third phase of the war in the Gaza Strip, with more targeted operations and warns Hezbollah that operations could also extend to Beirut. Yoav Gallant warned Hezbollah, not hesitating to threaten the Lebanese Shiite movement. 

“We are ready to make sacrifices. Hezbollah sees what is happening in Gaza and it must know that we are ready to replicate these operations in Beirut,” he said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal .

For his part, the leader of the Israeli opposition, Yair Lapid, calls on certain ministers to leave the government, affirming that the current government cannot lead the country. 

According to him, it is possible to establish in a short time a "broad, reasonable and benevolent government" that would support the IDF and the reserve soldiers, allocate the budget for the benefit of citizens, return deportees to their homes and present a plan for reconstruction on the table.

DEADLY EARTHQUAKE IN JAPAN

THE EARTHQUAKE WIDENED 

THE COAST BY 175 METERS

At least 128 dead and 195 missing

The human toll from the earthquake has increased, reaching at least 128 deaths, with 560 people injured and 195 still missing, according to local authorities who communicated these figures on Sunday afternoon. The devastating consequences of the earthquake, combined with hundreds of aftershocks, led to the collapse of buildings and roads, as well as a thousand landslides and fires, notably in Wajima, where many residents are believed to be under the rubble.

The tremor, felt as far away as Tokyo, located 300 km from the epicenter, also generated a tsunami with waves exceeding one meter in height. Rescue teams are still working to find those missing and isolated due to damaged roads, while delivering food and equipment to refugees. According to the Ishikawa department, more than 30,000 people were housed in 366 government shelters on Saturday.

IRAN ATTACK DURING THE CEREMONY OF TRIBUTE TO SOLEIMANI

FORMER LEADER OF THE REVOLUTION GUARDIANS

Tribute ceremony to Soleimani

It was around 5 p.m. in Iran when the crowd gathered in Kerman, a city of 700,000 inhabitants, near the tomb of General Qassem Soleimani. A tribute was to be paid, four years after the death of the former leader of the elite Iranian Al Quds force. He was considered the leader of pro-Iranian forces in Iraq and Syria, notably against the Islamic State, before being killed on January 3, 2020 by an American strike at Baghdad airport.

The explosions occurred on the roads leading to Golzar Shohada, the cemetery of the Kerman Martyrs' Garden. Qassem Soleimani's body is buried there with 1,024 other people considered martyrs. A gathering place for opponents of the United States and the West.

“The explosions were caused by terrorist attacks,” said a local official quoted by state media, without specifying who could be behind them.

The semi-official Nournews agency reported that several gas canisters exploded 10 minutes apart on the road leading to the cemetery.

The terrible images of the attack in Iran on Wednesday January 3, 2024 show that the two explosions which took place in Kemran (southeast of Iran) aimed to cause as many victims as possible.

Who is behind the “terrorist” attack ?

With the conflict between Israel and Gaza and the recent death of the number 2 of the Hamas political office in Lebanon, possible American or Israeli action could be considered. However, the mode of operation, an attack in the middle of the crowd, does not correspond to the usual tactics of these two countries, which generally prefer more targeted attacks or direct assassinations, as illustrated by the recent Israeli strike in Syria which killed Razi Moussavi, a commander of the Revolutionary Guards.

Iran recently declared that it had dismantled on its soil a group supported by the Mossad, the secret services of the Israeli state. An attack prepared directly in Iran by opponents such as the People's Mojahedin, who carried out attacks by the pass ?

As for the popular movement against the theocratic regime which notably contests the headscarf for women, its various actions have always targeted the authorities and not the people it claims to represent. No claims have been made so far.

The regime may also have an interest in accusing foreigners to hide internal problems linked to minorities in the country. In December 2023, 700 km from Kemran, a jihadist attack killed eleven police officers in the province of Sistan-Baluchistan, in the southeast of Iran.

THREAT OF NAVAL WAR IN THE RED SEA

"THE AXIS OF IRANIAN RESISTANCE"

BEHIND THE HOUTHI ATTACKS

Tension is rising a notch in the Red Sea: Yemen's Houthi rebels yesterday claimed responsibility for the drone attack against the French frigate Languedoc in the Red Sea. The machine was shot down on Monday in this crucial area for international maritime trade.

This threatened a Norwegian oil tanker, which had already been hit by a cruise missile fired from areas controlled by the rebels without causing any casualties. This was the latest incident targeting boats using this route through which 40 transit % of world trade.

In recent weeks, the Red Sea has been the scene of several incidents of this type. At least six commercial ships were targeted by drones or missiles. The most spectacular attack dates back to November 19 when a Houthi commando seized a cargo ship belonging to an Israeli businessman. The Yemeni armed group filmed the operation and broadcast the images. The boat was taken to a port in Yemen. Its 25 crew members are still sequestered.

Their support for Hamas

The Houthis claim to attack boats with Israeli interests or a point of departure or arrival in Israel, in support of the Palestinians. They threaten all boats in the Red Sea, en route to Israel, as long as the populations of Gaza do not receive emergency humanitarian aid.

They invited themselves into the war. They show their support for Hamas and have several times directly targeted Israel by sending drones and missiles against its territory, notably against the city of Eilat, in the south. Devices almost all intercepted by Israel.

The axis of Iranian resistance in the Middle East

It's hard not to see Iran's hand in this. The Houthis belong to the so-called axis of Iranian resistance in the Middle East, alongside Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria. All these movements, enemies of Israel, are armed arms of Tehran in the region, even if they retain a certain autonomy.

The Houthis in fact have very sophisticated weapons, drones, cruise missiles, but also ballistic missiles capable of hitting ships, and therefore moving targets. Iran provides the Houthis with a major arsenal. The fact remains that Iran, the main ally of this Yemeni rebel group, the Islamic Republic, seems, for the moment, to want to avoid a regional escalation.

An obstacle to international trade

In addition, the situation in the Red Sea is having a significant impact on maritime traffic, with a notable increase in insurance costs and adjustments to route plans for several vessels. The Houthis, a rebel group which exercises control over part of Yemen, notably over the strategic strait regulating access to the Red Sea, pose a serious threat to international trade and freedom of navigation in this crucial region.

In fact, around a tenth of global maritime traffic passes through this area. The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, located in the south of the Red Sea between Yemen and Djibouti, is considered the 4th most important crossing point in the world for oil tankers.

Faced with this threat, Western countries are calling for international mobilization to secure this major trade route. However, the means to influence this rebel group are limited. Among the options considered, the military option is on the table. Attacks on commercial shipping in this region are not new, and an international force has already been present for more than two decades.

The United States expresses a desire to strengthen this presence, considering increasing its own engagement in the Red Sea and mobilizing other nations, including China. However, escorting every ship along Yemen's Houthi-controlled west coast remains an impossible task for naval forces.

Therefore, Washington is also exploring options for diplomatic retaliation. One possibility would be the reintegration of the Houthis into the US list of terrorist organizations, which could jeopardize the transfers of funds needed as part of the ongoing negotiations for a peace agreement between Yemen and Saudi Arabia. However, Western countries risk finding themselves isolated in their sanctions, as it would be difficult for Arab nations to condemn the Houthis without being seen as supporters of Israel.

LE SILENCE ASSOURDISSANT DES ORGANISATIONS INTERNATIONALES ET DES FEMINISTES FACE 

AUX ACTES DE BARBARIE COMMIS PAR LE HAMAS

SUR LES FEMMES ISRAELIENNES

Les témoignages d’anciens otages détenus dans la bande de Gaza et libérés dans le cadre de la trêve entre Israël et le Hamas commencent à affluer. Souvent relayés par des proches de ces ex-captifs, ils donnent une certaine idée de leurs conditions de détention particulièrement éprouvantes.

Les otages ont "subi des difficultés physiques et mentales", a déclaré le Dr Itai Pessach, directeur de l’hôpital pédiatrique Safra au sein du centre hospitalier Sheba, durant une conférence de presse.

"Je ressens le besoin de faire entendre leurs voix", a-t-il ajouté. " Le monde doit savoir à quel point le Hamas est diabolique et cruel".

Il a souligné que par égard pour l’intimité des patients, il ne partagera pas détails, et qu’il revient aux ex-otages de raconter publiquement leurs histoires.

De nombreux otages “sont revenus chez eux malnutris, infestés de poux, malades, blessés et profondément traumatisés”, résume The New York Times. Et ont commencé à raconter “la violence, la faim et la peur”.

Des révélations inquiétantes.

D’après un responsable américain, si la reconduite de la trêve à Gaza a échoué, c’est à cause du Hamas qui ne souhaite pas que des femmes otages révèlent les viols et les violences sexuelles qu’elles ont subis par les terroristes " Il semble que l’une des raisons pour lesquelles ils ne veulent pas libérer des femmes qu’ils retiennent en otage et que cette pause a volé en éclats, c’est qu’ils ne veulent pas que ces femmes racontent ce qui leur est arrivé pendant leur détention ", a déclaré à la presse Matthew Miller, porte-parole du département d’État

Le porte-parole américain s’est refusé à davantage de précisions en mettant en avant le caractère sensible de la question, mais a déclaré que les Etats-Unis n’avaient «aucune raison de douter» des informations sur des violences sexuelles imputées au Hamas. 

"Il y a très peu de choses dont je pense que le Hamas ne soit pas capable s’agissant du traitement des civils et en particulier du traitement des femmes", a-t-il ajouté. Jeudi matin, 19 civiles dont une mineure ainsi que cinq femmes militaires étaient toujours retenues en captivité à Gaza. Une majorité d’entre elles ont moins de 30 ans.

Hommes et femmes agressés sexuellement durant leur captivité.

Selon un médecin, 10 ex-otages au moins ont été abusés sexuellement par le Hamas

Selon une information de l’Associated Press communiquée mercredi, au moins 10 des civils israéliens libérés par le Hamas, hommes et femmes, ont été agressés sexuellement ou abusés durant leur captivité.

Dans un rapport détaillant des allégations d’abus sexuels graves et généralisés commis par des terroristes du Hamas lors de leur attaque du 7 octobre et après, sur les otages, un médecin qui a pris en charge quelques uns des 110 otages libérés a également déclaré qu’au moins 10 hommes et femmes avaient été agressés ou abusés sexuellement.

Il n’a pas fourni davantage de détails et s’est exprimé sous couvert d’anonymat afin de protéger l’identité des otages.

Les propos de ce médecin corroborent des récits similaires évoqués lors d’une réunion, mardi. Cette réunion, entre le cabinet de guerre israélien et un groupe composé d’ex-otages et de proches d’otages encore à Gaza, a permis l’expression de témoignages de toute première main de la part de certains ex-otages qui ont évoqué les abus sexuels subis en captivité, ont déclaré les participants.

Aviva Siegel, libérée la semaine dernière et dont le mari, un ressortissant américain, est toujours otage, aurait déclaré au cours de la réunion que certaines des femmes otages étaient « touchées ». D’autres ont déclaré au cours de la réunion que des hommes et des femmes avaient été agressés sexuellement, selon des fuites dans les médias israéliens.

Ronen Tzur, directeur du Forum des otages et des familles des disparus, a déclaré à l’issue de la réunion : ' C’était une réunion pour le moins inhabituelle. Les membres du cabinet ont entendu pour la première fois des ex-otages décrire les choses difficiles qui se passent dans les tunnels, y compris les abus sexuels, et dire que les frappes aériennes se déroulent très près de l’endroit où ils et elles sont détenus. "

Il n’a pas fourni davantage de détails et s’est exprimé sous couvert d’anonymat afin de protéger l’identité des otages.

Israël affirme que le Hamas a eu la possibilité de proroger la trêve, mais qu’il a refusé de libérer toutes les femmes otages, comme l’impliquait l’accord. On pense qu’il reste 138 otages à Gaza, dont une vingtaine de femmes.

Voici quelques-uns des récits de témoins oculaires, qui comprennent des descriptions perturbantes de violences et de cruautés sexuelles graves.

Actes de barbarie commises le 7 octobre

La police israélienne assure enquêter sur de possibles violences sexuelles commises le 7 octobre, dont des viols en réunion ou des mutilations de cadavres. Les enquêteurs ont jusqu'ici recueilli " plus de 1 500 témoignages choquants et pénibles ", a déclaré une policière la semaine dernière au Parlement israélien, évoquant  des filles déshabillées au-dessus et au-dessous de la taille ", et rapportant le témoignage du viol collectif, de la mutilation et du meurtre d'une jeune femme. Elle a cité un autre témoin faisant état de blessures par balles aux " organes génitaux, dans l'abdomen, les jambes et les fesses (...), de seins coupés ou porteurs de blessures par balles ", tandis que des secouristes ont fait état du " corps d'une femme saignant des zones génitales ".

Cependant, " la grande majorité des victimes des viols et autres agressions sexuelles du 7 octobre ont été assassinées et ne pourront jamais témoigner ", précisait en novembre dernier Cochav Elkayam Levy, présidente de la commission parlementaire sur les crimes commis contre les femmes le 7 octobre.

" Ils me violent, ils me violent"

Ron Freger s’est enfui du festival de musique Nova lorsque le Hamas a attaqué et il a dit avoir entendu une femme appeler à l’aide. " J’étais allongé dans une fosse (et) j’ai entendu (une fille) crier : ‘Ils me violent, ils me violent !’ ", a-t-il déclaré.

Quelques minutes plus tard, il a entendu des coups de feu à proximité et je ne l’ai plus entendue, a-t-il dit. " Mon sentiment à ce moment-là, c’est celui d’une impuissance totale. Je suis allongé dans ce trou et je ne peux rien faire. 

Je n’ai pas d’arme, je n’ai rien, je suis entouré de personnes qui se cachent avec moi et nous sommes complètement impuissants ", a raconté le jeune homme de 23 ans originaire de la ville de Netanya, dans le nord d’Israël.

Le mois dernier, le chef de la police israélienne a présenté aux médias étrangers le récit, en vidéo, de la témoin d’un viol survenu lors du festival de musique. Visage flouté, la témoin a a expliqué avoir vu des terroristes violer collectivement une femme allongée au sol. 

Les hommes l’ont alors relevée – du sang lui coulait le long du dos -, lui ont arraché les cheveux et lui ont coupé les seins, jouant avec pendant qu’ils la violaient. Le dernier homme lui a tiré une balle dans la tête alors qu’il était encore en elle. La femme dans la vidéo dit avoir regardé les terroristes tout en faisant semblant d’être morte.

"Je ne comprenais pas ce que je voyais", a-t-elle dit.

C’est une autre histoire bouleversante. Celle d’Esther, une jeune femme qui a subi des atrocités lors de l’attaque du Hamas contre Israël survenue le 7 octobre dernier. 

Les terroristes palestiniens l’ont violée et tabassée, sous le regard de son copain, forcé de regarder les sévices infligés à sa moitié avec un couteau sous la gorge. " C’était si douloureux que j’ai perdu connaissance, ils ont arrêté lorsqu’ils m’ont crue morte ", raconte Esther au Parisien  dimanche 26 novembre 2023.

Les actes de barbarie ne se sont pas arrêtés là. Les membres du Hamas ont mutilé la jeune femme avec un couteau ou un tesson de verre, ce qui a engendré sa paralysie. Une séquelle dont elle pourrait souffrir toute sa vie.

"Et même si je remarche, je boiterai. Je serai toujours l’image vivante du pogrom ", explique-t-elle. 

"A l’intérieur, je suis à moitié morte", ajoute la victime. Aujourd’hui, quand Esther évoque ce qui lui est arrivé, c’est "comme s’il ne s’agissait pas de son histoire", souligne un psychiatre hospitalier. 

"C’est typique du syndrome de stress post-traumatique, en particulier lors d’un viol. Le cerveau de la victime met sa subjectivité et toutes ses émotions sur pause pendant l’agression, comme un animal qui se fige, pris dans le danger". 

"Les victimes disent que c’est comme si elles s’étaient détachées de leur corps, laissé à l’agresseur, afin de protéger leur intégrité psychique ", ajoute-t-il.

Le cas d’Esther n’est pas isolé. Plusieurs actes de viol ont été recensés par les médecins légistes sur des cadavres.

La majorité de ces agressions sexuelles ont été commises avec des objets et post-mortem.

Un médecin de guerre a déclaré avoir trouvé une demi-douzaine de corps de femmes et d’hommes présentant des signes d’une possible agression sexuelle dans l’une des communautés attaquées

La majorité des victimes "ne pourront jamais témoigner"

Une jeune fille qui avait reçu une balle dans la tête était allongée au sol, les jambes écartées et le pantalon baissé, avec ce qui ressemblait à du sperme dans le bas du dos, a déclaré le médecin s’exprimant sous couvert d’anonymat car son unité était secrète. D’autres corps présentaient d’importants saignements au niveau de l’aine, avec des membres déformés, a-t-il déclaré.

A la base militaire de la Choura, chargée de l’identification des victimes, Shari Mendes, membre de l’unité de réserve de l’armée en charge de l’identification et de la préparation de l’enterrement religieux des femmes soldats, a déclaré que certains corps de femmes étaient arrivés sans beaucoup de vêtements, des parties de pyjama, parfois seulement des sous-vêtements ensanglantés.

Cochav Elkayam Levy, présidente de la commission parlementaire sur les crimes commis contre les femmes le 7 octobre 2023, a cité un autre témoin faisant état de blessures par balle aux "organes génitaux, dans l’abdomen, les jambes et les fesses […], de seins coupés ou porteurs de blessures par balle", tandis que des secouristes ont fait état du corps d’une femme "saignant des zones génitales". Mais "la grande majorité des victimes des viols et autres agressions sexuelles du 7 octobre ont été assassinées et ne pourront jamais témoigner", précisait en novembre Cochav Elkayam Levy,

Des crimes "répandus"

Sur la base d’informations et d’entretiens obtenus de sources ouvertes, le rapport de Physicians for Human Rights Israël a documenté des incidents survenus lors du festival de musique, dans des maisons autour de la bande de Gaza et dans une base militaire israélienne, tous attaqués par le Hamas.

"Il devient de plus en plus clair que les violences perpétrées contre les femmes, les hommes et les enfants se sont doublées de crimes sexuels et sexistes généralisés", a-t-il déclaré.

Avant la guerre, le Hamas, organisation terroriste islamique dont l’objectif est la destruction d’Israël, n’était pas connu pour son utilisation du viol comme arme, explique Colin P. Clarke, directeur de recherche chez The Soufan Group, société internationale de conseil en renseignement

Silence assourdissant des organisations internationales

Face au silence assourdissant des organisations internationales qui ont tardé à réagir aux informations faisant état de viols, les associations féministes sont montées au créneau. Mélanie Pauli-Geysse ne décolère pas. 

Elle appartient au collectif Rape is rape. "On parle de 'gynocide', puisque c'est l'éradication même de la femme en tant qu'être vivant et génitrice, qui va transmettre et assurer la continuité de la vie par la naissance des enfants. On sait la portée symbolique de tout cela."

Lundi 4 décembre 2023, Israël a organisé un événement spécial aux Nations Unies, où l’ancienne secrétaire d’État américaine Hillary Clinton, la sénatrice américaine Kirsten Gillibrand et la haute dirigeante de la technologie Sheryl Sandberg ont, avec d’autres, critiqué ce qu’elles qualifient d’échec mondial à soutenir les femmes agressées sexuellement et, dans certains cas, tuées.sexuelles".

L’organisation ONU Femmes - l’entité des Nations unies pour l’égalité des sexes – a relativement tardivement affirmé être «consciente des inquiétudes» en Israël et avoir rencontré des organisations de femmes israéliennes pour «écouter leurs récits horribles de ce qui s’est passé le 7 octobre» et les «aider autant que possible à exposer les atrocités sexistes, dont les violences sexuelles».

Depuis l’adoption de la résolution 1820, le 19 juin 2008 par le Conseil de sécurité de l’ONU, le viol est consécutif de crime de guerre contre l’humanité et de crime constitutif du crime de génocide.

Les associations féministes se déchirent : un poids, deux mesures après l'attaque du Hamas en Israël

Une pétition, qui rassemble plus de 37 000 signatures à ce jour, dont celles de la maire de Paris Anne Hidalgo (PS) ou la chanteuse et actrice Charlotte Gainsbourg, demande que l'attaque du 7 octobre soit reconnue comme un "féminicide de masse". 

"De nombreux civils sont morts, mais les femmes n'ont pas été tuées de la même façon que les autres", souligne le texte à l'initiative de l'association Paroles de femmes.

Sarah Barukh, autrice de l'ouvrage “125 et des milliers” consacré aux féminicides, dénonce un poids, deux mesures après l'attaque du Hamas en Israël

Samedi 25 novembre, près de 200 personnes du collectif Nous vivrons, majoritairement de confession juive, ont d'ailleurs voulu porter le message lors de la manifestation contre les violences faites aux femmes organisée par le collectif féministe Nous toutes, qui revendique 80 000 participants. 

Elles avaient préparé des pancartes affichant "#MeToo unless you are a Jew" ("#MeToo sauf si vous êtes juive") ou "Féministes, votre silence vous rend complices". Mais au moment d'intégrer le cortège parisien, elles se sont heurtées à l'hostilité d'un groupuscule antifasciste et les policiers leur ont déconseillé d'insister. 

Un épisode qui a fait réagir jusqu'à la ministre de l'Égalité entre les femmes et les hommes, Bérangère Couillard : "Comme je l'ai dit, il faut condamner toutes les violences faites aux femmes. Y compris les viols de masse comme arme de guerre, en Israël et ailleurs. Je suis choquée que certains (...) n'aient pas voulu que ce message soit entendu", a-t-elle déclaré, communiqué à l'appui sur X.

Pour tenter de sortir des polémiques, le Conseil représentatif des institutions juives de France (Crif) organise du 3 au 5 décembre un "voyage d'information et de solidarité" en Israël avec des parlementaires français. Des ONG comme la Fondation des femmes ou celle de Céline Bardet, We are not weapons of wars (WWoW), qui travaille sur les violences sexuelles en temps de guerre, ont notamment été approchées pour y participer.

Tout le monde s'accorde à dire cependant qu'il faudra du temps pour faire la lumière sur les sévices subis par les femmes, tant les massacres du 7 octobre restent une plaie douloureuse dans toute la société israélienne.

HOW TO CARE AND MANAGE

POST-TRAUMATIC STRESS OF HOSTAGES

FROM HAMAS ?

The day after a visit to Israel, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the United States, Israel's main allies, remained "focused" on the release of the hostages. “We continue to work with Israel, Egypt and Qatar to get the truce back on track,” declared American Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

Soldiers, a particular issue

Among these hostages, there could still be soldiers, precious prizes from Hamas, in a country where almost every family has a soldier. At least 11 soldiers, including four women, as well as around forty men of reservist age were among the 240 people kidnapped on October 7, 2023.

If the bodies of the deceased hostages can constitute an issue in the negotiations, those of the soldiers even more so, Israel wishing to bury them with the honors due to them.

Four French people still presumed hostages

Before the truce, France still had eight nationals missing, some of whom were held hostage in the Gaza Strip.

Mia Schem, 21 years old, Eitan, 12 years old, and Sahar and Erez, brother and sister aged 12 and 16, were released. After the truce, four French people presumed hostages remain:

Hamas is not the only group holding hostages in the Gaza Strip. Islamic Jihad is also in this case, as are other Palestinian organizations.

"In the chaos that accompanied the terrorist attacks, Israeli civilians [and soldiers] were taken hostage by Hamas, by another terrorist organization called Islamic Jihad, and also by individuals who had entered [in Israel]", explained the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Catherine Colonna on November 28. “Hamas is responsible, if I may say so, for the majority of the hostages, but it is not the only one,” she added.

Extremely difficult detention conditions

The recent releases of hostages have shed light on the conditions of detention in the Gaza Strip.

Dr Ronit Zaidenstein of Shamira Hospital examined 17 Thai hostages upon their release, explaining that they had received only a "very poorly nutritious diet" during their captivity. “The people we admitted lost a significant amount of their weight in a very short period of time – 10% or more,” he added.

The Ynet news site, which interviewed Dr. Margarita Mashavi of Wolfson Hospital, where many hostages passed through upon their release. Detained in the basement, they only had “two hours of light” per day, she explained. Furthermore, they ate "rice, hummus and canned beans and sometimes cheese with bread, but nothing else". Speech begins to free itself.

Children traumatized for life

President Joe Biden announced the release on Sunday by Hamas of a 4-year-old American hostage. The little one, named Abigail, “is free and she is in Israel,” he said during a speech. The child was taken hostage on October 7 by Hamas. According to a senior American official, his mother was first murdered before his eyes. His father tried to protect the child before being killed in turn. “She suffered terrible trauma,” lamented the American president on Sunday.

The children gave equally disturbing stories. “Eitan experienced horrors, reported Deborah Cohen, the aunt of this 12-year-old Frenchman. Hamas forced him to watch the horror film [of the Hamas attack in Israel on October 7].

There, every time a child cried they threatened him with a gun to make him keep quiet. When he arrived in Gaza, all the civilians hit him."

The father of Emily, a 9-year-old Israeli-Irish girl, also explained to The Sun that she was "terrified of making noise" since her return and that all she did was "whisper".

Sexual violence

But a month and a half later, the word is beginning to be released concerning sexual violence committed against Israeli women, in particular those present at the Tribe of Nova music festival, which was targeted by the Islamist movement in the Negev desert.

“We have multiple witnesses in several cases,” says David Katz, head of the cyber section of the Lahav 433 criminal police unit, nicknamed “the Israeli FBI.” In the press, testimonies from survivors are multiplying.

The Israeli daily Haaretz echoed that of a young festival-goer, who said she witnessed the gang rape of a woman. She was then shot in the head by Hamas men.

This weekend, Le Parisien published the portrait of a survivor of October 7, "Esther", who says she was raped and beaten up in front of her boyfriend:

“It was so painful that I lost consciousness, they stopped when they thought I was dead.” The young woman then describes having been mutilated by a Hamas man.

In addition to the interrogations of Hamas fighters detained by the Shin Bet, Israeli agents can rely on numerous video evidence (surveillance cameras, images from Hamas GoPro cameras), as well as on facial recognition to try to identify the responsible for these crimes.

“Certain elements, such as broken pelvises or bodies of naked women, suggest that there were rapes and other abuses against women during this attack, which is not surprising given the of its barbarity, but for the moment we have very few details", estimates Céline Bardet, jurist in international law, specialist in war crimes.

“The phenomenon of rape as a weapon of war has been known for a very long time. It is a weapon which destroys subsequent generations”, adds Me Julie Goffin, lawyer at the Brussels bar and at the International Criminal Court (ICC), a body not recognized by the Hebrew State.

Israeli police announced on November 14 the opening of an investigation into rapes and mutilations committed by Hamas men that day. Abuses which could also have been committed on the hostages.

Post-traumatic stress and Lazarus syndrome

According to psychiatrist Patrick Clervoy, individuals released after a period of captivity are likely to develop post-traumatic stress, a phenomenon he describes as possible "Lazarus syndrome".

These civilians, mostly women and children, endured detention of around fifty days, also marked by the violent attacks of October 7, 2023.

The trauma suffered is therefore twofold, underlines the associate professor from Val-de-Grâce, who, throughout his career, has treated survivors of hostage-taking and attacks. The possibility of a Lazarus syndrome is mentioned in his intervention on TF1Info.
For the psychiatrist, captivity represents only one phase, often the second, in a series of traumatic episodes. The taking of hostages, often preceding captivity, is described as a brutal act of war, more or less prolonged, plunging the subject into a state of acute stress, leaving him totally disoriented.

During this period, the psychic capacities allowing a person to understand, control their reactions and ensure their survival are saturated. Screams, darkness, the brutality of events, physical injuries and the sight of deceased loved ones are all elements contributing to acute stress.

Individuals experience episodes of derealization, disconnecting from reality and evoking a feeling of extreme well-being, even invincibility.
Captivity then constitutes an unstable phase, marked by cruel, odious moments, sometimes accompanied by torture or physical and sexual abuse.

The third stage occurs with liberation, which is also accompanied by stress. In this context, the probability of developing prolonged psychological disorders, in the form of post-traumatic stress, is high.

The only possible exception: the case of certain children who, remaining with their parents, were able to feel secure thanks to a protective role well assumed by the parent.

However, other children will likely experience a chaotic life course.
Among the post-traumatic symptoms is Lazarus syndrome.

For psychiatrist Patrick Clervoy, people who leave captivity develop post-traumatic stress. He mentions a possible Lazarus syndrome.

Among the post-traumatic symptoms: Lazarus syndrome

It is an insidious and prolonged social dysfunction that profoundly transforms those who have experienced a traumatic event, where death seemed imminent, altering their initial nature in an irreversible manner.

It is highly probable that hostages develop this syndrome, especially as they reintegrate into a society itself marked by trauma.

The ex-hostage can envisage a return to a world identical to that before, hoping for stability to rebuild himself and find his place. However, this expectation is doomed to disappointment, as the Israeli population has been indelibly traumatized since the Hamas terrorist operation.

Whether for those who welcome the hostage or for the hostage himself, the world before has irretrievably disappeared.

The numerous psychological aftereffects .

The very experience of a hostage presents particularities likely to serve as a spring for future troubles:

withdrawal from social life, with all kinds of avoidance, potential humiliation, feeling of powerlessness...

In addition, hostage-taking, through the media coverage to which they are often subject, particularly highlights the victims' ability to recover or not.

Some have foundered, like the journalist Brice Fleutiaux, who ended his life in 2001, shortly after being held hostage in Chechnya, or the heir John Paul Getty III, who never recovered from his kidnapped in Italy in the 1970s as a child, and plunged into a spiral of addictions that left him quadriplegic until his death.

Without being as dramatic, a vast series of post-traumatic symptoms have been recorded among former hostages: difficulty concentrating and memory loss, bouts of depression or anxiety, withdrawal from social life.

But victims still tend to regain control of their lives, and some former hostages, as paradoxical as it may seem, ultimately experience positive consequences from their experience on a psychological level.

These differences are difficult to understand. Psychiatrists struggle to answer and admit that it is difficult to know in advance whether one hostage is more likely than another to develop mental disorders.

“We have not clearly delineated the factors that lead to an unfavorable outcome after a hostage-taking,” admitted in 2009 the authors of a summary on the subject, in the journal of the British Royal Society of Medicine (RSM) .

Finally, one element complicates the monitoring of psychological after-effects: the disorders can take a long time to emerge.

“It can resurface one year, two years, 10 years later, and it is absolutely unpredictable,” explains psychiatrist Christine Roullière, specialist in post-traumatic disorders, who particularly emphasizes the need for support upon release. 'a hostage.

We must “immediately allow the person to verbalize what they may have experienced,” she insists.

“It’s a way of putting back into the thread of one’s life the extraordinary events that took him to the other side of the looking glass. The objective is to support the return to the world of the living” .

And it is indeed this return to the world of the living that the Israeli authorities are trying to put in place with medical care, reunions with loved ones and management of the trauma. So many steps imposed by Israel that the ex-Hamas hostages will have to follow to the letter.

Medical care, reunion with loved ones.

The Israeli national protocol established with the hostages is scientifically approved around the world.

It consists of “dishing people out, bringing them out of this glaciation, bringing them back into reality” to prevent patients from falling “into astonishment, a psychological glaciation” in the long term. For this reason, the released hostages follow a strict and supervised protocol.

A first personalized medical examination is therefore carried out by the ICRC in Rafah upon receipt, before being transferred to representatives of the Israeli army.

"From a medical point of view, obviously, the doctor will ask if they don't have any pain. (...) You have to know if they don't have a specific medical problem and do physical exams" , he explains. Adequate medical care is then provided in one of the six Israeli hospitals where the patients were sent.

Government recommendations were also provided to the staff in charge of the hostages.

And special attention must be given to them. The Times of Israel cites the example of physical contact which can only take place with the agreement of the ex-hostage or the way of feeding them in cases of prolonged malnutrition in captivity.

If kept underground, specific attention is also required to their sensitivity to natural light.

The Israeli Ministry of Health also asked medical personnel "to search for and document any signs of torture, rape or other war crimes", as indicated by the Israeli media. Essential documentation work.

Rebuilding yourself through contact with loved ones

Once these first precautions have been passed, the hostages will gradually return to reality. Which starts with collecting their personal belongings. An important moment before finding the families, then informed of the place where their loved one has been transferred.

But to find them, the staff in charge of monitoring the hostages must above all ensure “that they are in good health again”. Then they will be able to reunite with their families. A crucial moment to regain “control of their lives because healing is both physical and mental”.

“They need to be with their families, because being with family is very important for their recovery.”

During this period of private reunion, the media will not be able to have access to the hostages or their families.

This is explained by a desire to let the hostages rebuild themselves away from the media spotlight at first. However, families will then be free to interact or not with the media if they wish.

Israeli children held hostage in Gaza face a long road to recovery after their release.

According to the Israeli government, up to 40 of the hostages are children, including a 10-month-old baby and preschoolers, some of whom saw their loved ones murdered before their eyes just before being kidnapped.

“There will never be a complete recovery,” said Mr. Dollberg, a clinical and developmental psychologist at the Academic College of Tel Aviv-Yaffo. “It will never be that what happened to them will not affect them and will not be forgotten. The children will experience a chaotic life journey.

COP28 IN DUBAI UNDER THE SPOTLIGHT OF CRITICISM

Global delegates will gather in the United Arab Emirates for the next round of international climate talks. During 2023, new extreme weather records were set, marked by devastating floods in Libya and devastating wildfires in Canada, Greece, and the Hawaiian island of Maui.

While these COP28 negotiations are crucial to securing the global agreements needed to avoid dangerous climate change, confidence in the summit is currently being shaken, in large part because of who is leading it.

The choice of Dubai as the venue for this major international event has sparked waves of criticism, particularly from environmental activists. In addition, the choice of Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, CEO of the Emirati oil company Adnoc, to chair this major event is also contested. This appointment raised questions about the neutrality of the decisions taken at COP28, thus fueling the debate on the links between economic interests and real environmental progress.

Ahmed al Jaber, president of COP28, the wolf in the fold?

The United Arab Emirates sparked controversy when it announced in January 2023 that Sultan Ahmed al Jaber, CEO of the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc), would chair the climate summit, giving him broad control over the agenda.

COP President Sultan Al-Jaber is plagued by major conflicts of interest when it comes to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. While he is expected to guide the drafting of negotiation decisions in a neutral and independent manner, Al-Jaber also represents the host country, the United Arab Emirates, as CEO of the national oil company, Adnoc.

With fossil fuels accounting for nearly 90% of the CO2 emissions that cause climate change, some say it's a clear conflict of interest for oil and gas producers to lead climate negotiations . The United Arab Emirates burns more gas than it declares.

Several surveys have also shown that the Emirates plan to increase oil and gas exploitation from 3.7 million barrels per day to 5 million by 2027, and that commercial negotiations even take place during meetings. planned for the COP.

According to confidential documents obtained by the Center for Climate Reporting, the United Arab Emirates thus prepared private business meetings involving Adnoc with delegations from more than 27 foreign governments before the summit.

Oil revenues are a guarantee of socio-economic stability in the Gulf countries.

Furthermore, despite decades of policies aimed at diversifying the country's economy away from oil, the UAE's hydrocarbon sector accounts for a quarter of GDP, half of the country's exports and 80% of government revenue. Oil revenue contributes to socio-economic stability.

This state of affairs is a central tenet of the Arab Gulf social contract, in which citizens of the six Gulf states occupy primarily bureaucratic positions in the public sector, administering an oil-based economy with an expatriate workforce that dominates the non-oil private sector.

Concerns about the obstruction of pro-climate policies by fossil fuel industries are therefore well justified, given evidence that these industries have known for decades about the climate consequences of their products.

However, the political program promoted by the presidency of the United Arab Emirates at COP28 could perhaps help accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels.

Firstly the UAE and Ahmed al Jaber were chosen by the Asia-Pacific region, which consists of a diverse set of developing countries

The choice of the country which hosts the COP summit is in fact managed by a United Nations process which is the subject of democratic alternation between six regions. Countries in each region consult about who will represent their region, and that country makes a proposal, which is evaluated and finalized by the secretariat that manages the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

The energy concerns of the countries of the South

For some countries in the South, the prospect of phasing out fossil fuels seems not only daunting, but also a threat to economic development.

Of the dozens of oil-producing countries in the world, about half are middle-income developing countries whose economies are highly vulnerable to volatile oil and gas prices.

Studies have suggested that a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels could lead to trillions of dollars in losses from infrastructure investments in oil-producing countries if they are not prepared.

At the same time, many states in the South are facing the outsized consequences of climate change, from extreme weather events to rising sea levels that can threaten the very existence of their communities. UAE presidency at COP28 could accelerate the energy transition, despite criticism of Al Jaber's choice.

Concerns about the phasing out of fossil fuels are significant, particularly for developing countries whose economies rely heavily on these resources. However, Al Jaber called this transition "inevitable" and "essential", emphasizing the need to strengthen renewable energy before quickly ending the use of fossil fuels.

Al Jaber's presidency of COP28 has been interpreted as an attempt by the UAE to greenwash its oil and gas expansion plans.

Al-Jaber, however, has spent most of his career in the renewable energy sector. In 2006, he founded and led the UAE's state-owned renewable energy company, Masdar, which he helped become the largest renewable energy operator in Africa.

He was appointed CEO of Adnoc in 2016, as part of the UAE's official launch of a national post-oil strategy. The previous year, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed gave a speech declaring that the UAE would celebrate "the last barrel of oil" by mid-century.

The COP28 program

Adnoc has certainly been heavily criticized for having planned to invest $150 billion in the expansion of its oil and gas capacities during this decade.

But at the global level, fossil fuel growth plans much larger than those of the United Arab Emirates are being led by the United States, Canada, Russia, Iran, China and Brazil. Most of the world's fossil fuel financing comes from banks in the United States, Canada and Japan.

And since 2015, European banks have poured a colossal $1.3 trillion into fossil fuels, including $130 billion for the year 2022.

Several UN assessments – such as the 2023 edition of the Emissions Gap Report of the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), or even the current commitments made by States under the Paris Agreement – have shown that current commitments place us on a trajectory of temperature increases of between 2.5 and 2.9°C, well beyond the targets set by the Paris Agreement.

Faced with these numerous contradictions, COP28 is therefore an essential meeting which intends to take stock of the global situation, talk about energy transition and emphasize solidarity between countries of the North and countries of the South.

And the UAE is demonstrating leadership that goes beyond previous COP presidencies. Indeed the total value of renewable energy projects planned by the UAE with various partners over the decade amounts to more than $300 billion.

The COP28 agenda plans to triple renewable energy capacity over the next seven years, further reducing costs to rapidly compete with fossil fuels, potentially within the next 20 years.

It also calls on countries to agree to cease fossil fuel production when CO2 emissions are not captured by mid-century, which could accelerate the development of capture, use and storage. CO2 for commercial purposes.

Finally, restructuring climate finance to make it less costly and reduce the debt burden, as proposed by the UAE presidency, could unlock the trillions of dollars the developing world has desperately needed to support its energy transitions while industrializing.

Last year, at the COP27 summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, the agreement to establish a fund for "loss and damage" was hailed as a major step forward on one of the most pressing issues. more difficult climate negotiations.

During this edition, this decision of November 2022 recognized the fact that the poorest and least emitting countries need help to deal with the consequences of climate change. But a year after negotiations, the fund has not yet materialized as developing countries hoped.

Big questions left unanswered

Many questions were raised and left unanswered in Sharm el-Sheikh. Among them :

who will fund this new fund?

Where will it be located?

Who will have the power to manage it?

And who will have access to financing, and above all who will not have access to it?

Developing countries agreed to have the fund hosted by the World Bank for an interim period, despite reservations.

Many delegates are concerned about the Bank's reputation, including the predominance of developed countries among donors, the emphasis on providing loans rather than grants, and the lack of climate sensitivity in Bank operations. These concerns are likely to resurface in Dubai.

At COP28, the realization of the loss and damage fund will be a litmus test for the legitimacy of the entire climate change negotiating regime.

Certainly, the fact that an oil CEO is leading a climate summit is worrying for all those who advocate a gradual and rapid reduction of fossil fuels, but if the COP28 summit manages to reach historic agreements on the aforementioned issues, this will be a significant step forward in accelerating the energy transition. And the COP summit will be something other than a simple ballet of hypocrisy...

A NEW HAMAS ATTACK

IN JERUSALEM

West Jerusalem bus stop targeted

The attack took place Thursday morning, around 7:40 a.m. (local time), near a crowded bus stop in West Jerusalem. “Two terrorists who came in a car and were armed, one with an M16 [assault rifle] and the other with a pistol,” opened fire, the city's police director told the press at the scene of the attack.

Three people were killed, and several others were injured, according to Israeli police. Several Israeli media, including Haaretz and The Times of Israel, report six injuries. The three dead are two women aged 24 and 67, and a 73-year-old man, all of Israeli nationality, authorities said.

Shooters shot dead by two soldiers and a civilian

Images broadcast by Israeli television showed two men getting out of a car and opening fire before being shot dead. According to police, they "were killed quickly by two off-duty soldiers and a civilian who shot at them."

Benjamin Netanyahu congratulated them in a press release. “My government will continue to expand the distribution of weapons to citizens,” assured the Israeli Prime Minister. Since the October 7 attack, the Israeli government has made it easier to obtain a permit to carry a firearm, and arms stores have seen sales to civilians increase.

Hamas claims responsibility for attack and calls for 'escalation'

The attackers were quickly identified as two brothers, who Israeli police say had been incarcerated in the past and were affiliated with Hamas. The Islamist movement, classified as terrorist by the European Union, claimed responsibility for the attack at midday on Thursday. “The brothers Mourad Nemr (38 years old) and Ibrahim Nemr (30 years old) (...), members of the Ezzedine al-Qassam brigades of Sour Baher”, a district of East Jerusalem, “sacrificed themselves by carrying out an operation” , writes the organization in a press release.

Hamas also calls for an "escalation of resistance" against Israel, and presents Thursday's attack as "a natural response to the unprecedented crimes of the occupier [Israel] in the Gaza Strip and against children in Jenin." , a West Bank town where two boys aged 8 and 15 were killed by the Israeli army on Wednesday.

Even before this claim, Israeli President Isaac Herzog judged that this attack was “yet another example of the situation in which we find ourselves, the endless war that we are waging against terrorist organizations, in particular Hamas”.

The head of American diplomacy, Anthony Blinken, said it recalled "the terrorist threat faced on a daily basis by Israel", where he is visiting.

ACCORD ISRAEL-HAMAS LIBERATION D'OTAGES TREVE HUMANITAIRE...

Les deux parties ont finalement conclu un premier accord dans la nuit du mardi 21 novembre 2023 au mercredi 22 novembre. Après des semaines de conflit et de pourparlers simultanés, un consensus a été atteint. Le Hamas et Israël se sont entendus sur la libération de 50 otages, enlevés par le groupe terroriste le 7 octobre 2023 dernier, en échange de la libération de prisonniers palestiniens et de l'instauration d'une trêve dans la bande de Gaza.

Le Premier ministre Benyamin Netanyahou a qualifié l'accord de "bonne décision" mardi soir, avant le début de la réunion de son cabinet, qui a ensuite donné son feu vert tôt mercredi. Le Hamas, via son chef Ismaïl Haniyeh, a salué la décision de "trêve humanitaire", soulignant que les modalités de l'accord étaient conformes à la vision de la résistance.

Les autorités qataries, au cœur des pourparlers, ont confirmé l'accord dans la nuit, exprimant leur gratitude envers l'Égypte et les États-Unis pour leur contribution aux médiations.

Libération de 50 otages contre 150 prisonniers palestiniens ?

240 otages, capturés lors de l'attaque du Hamas sur Israël le 7 octobre 2023, étaient concernés. Le gouvernement israélien a annoncé avoir approuvé les grandes lignes de la première étape de l'accord, libérant au moins 50 otages, principalement des femmes et des enfants. Aucun militaire ne devrait être relâché.

En échange, un nombre indéterminé de femmes et d'enfants palestiniens détenus en Israël seront également libérés, selon le ministère des Affaires étrangères qatarien. Deux sources parlent de 150 prisonniers.

La nationalité des personnes libérées reste floue, bien que trois ressortissantes américaines figurent parmi les 50 otages, selon un haut responsable de la Maison Blanche. Huit Français sont toujours aux mains du Hamas.

Bien que cet accord porte initialement sur 50 personnes, les États-Unis s'attendent à la libération de davantage d'otages dans les prochains jours. Si ce premier accord ne porte que sur 50 personnes, les États-Unis s’attendent à ce que davantage soient libérées. 

"Il y aura maintenant une pause de plusieurs jours, ils (le Hamas) auront la capacité d’identifier des femmes et des enfants supplémentaires. Nous nous attendons donc à ce qu’il y en ait plus de 50", a déclaré un haut responsable américain à la presse.

Dans une série de messages sur X ce mercredi matin, le gouvernement israélien écrit d’ailleurs que "la libération de dix otages supplémentaires entraînera une journée supplémentaire de pause".

Une trêve d'au moins quatre jours.

L'échange de prisonniers et d'otages se déroulera au cours d'une trêve humanitaire, d'une durée initiale de quatre jours, avec la possibilité de prolongation. 

Cette pause est réclamée depuis longtemps par des organisations internationales et des ONG, pour permettre l'entrée de convois humanitaires et d'aide d'urgence, y compris du carburant, dans la bande de Gaza, soumise à un siège total d'Israël.. Jusque-là, seule une pause quotidienne de quatre heures avait été accordée par le gouvernement hébreu.

La Croix Rouge pourra rendre visite aux otages non encore libérés à Gaza, avec des médicaments.

Difficile de savoir si cet accord va être tenu de bout en bout. Les deux parties ont déjà évoqué un retour à la guerre. Le ministre israélien de la Défense, Yoav Gallant, a exprimé le souhait d'une reprise "à pleine force" des opérations après la trêve pour "défaire" le Hamas et créer les conditions nécessaires au retour d'autres otages.

 "Le gouvernement israélien, l’armée israélienne et les forces de sécurité poursuivront la guerre pour ramener toutes les personnes enlevées, éliminer le Hamas et garantir qu’il n’y ait plus aucune menace pour l’État d’Israël depuis Gaza", a d’ailleurs confirmé le gouvernement après son vote. 

"Nous confirmons que nos mains resteront sur la gâchette et que nos bataillons triomphants resteront aux aguets", a également averti le Hamas de son côté.

La pause pour les "otages"ne signifie pas la fin de la guerre.

WHY TARGETED IDF OPERATIONS

ON THE AL-CHIFA HOSPITAL IN GAZA ?

What is the status of the Israeli army's operation in al-Chifa hospital ?

And what does international law say ?

The Israeli army raid continues on the grounds of al-Chifa hospital this Thursday, November 16. . Officially, for Israel, this is an operation "targeted [...] against Hamas in a specific sector of the hospital". For years, Israelis have accused Hamas of using Gaza hospitals as bases. And for them, there is no doubt, Hamas "operates inside and under" the Al-Chifa hospital, the most important in the Palestinian enclave.

On October 27, 2023, Israeli army spokesperson Daniel Hagari claimed to have “concrete evidence that the hospital was used to hide Hamas members.” He presented, during a press conference, photographs and audio recordings proving, according to him, that the Islamist movement had several underground complexes hidden under the hospital, accessible through the network of tunnels located under the strip of Gaza, and an entry into one of the services.

Accusations supported on November 14 by the White House, which claimed to have American intelligence according to which Hamas would use the al-Chifa hospital to direct its military operations and probably store weapons.

This is not the first time that a link has been established between Hamas and this hospital. In a report published in 2015, the NGO Amnesty International accused the Islamist movement of having tortured and summarily executed Palestinians during the Israeli military offensive against Gaza in July and August 2014.

“Some [people] were subjected to interrogation and torture, or otherwise mistreated in an abandoned outpatient clinic located on the grounds of al-Chifa hospital,” the NGO noted.

The political leader of Hamas in Gaza, Yahya Sinouar confirmed, in 2021, that his movement operates a vast network of tunnels “exceeding 500 kilometers”.

Yocheved Lifshitz, an 85-year-old woman taken hostage by Hamas on October 7, 2023, said after her release that she walked for miles through tunnels in Gaza that resembled "a spider's web."

Weapons, ammunition and military equipment found

Twenty-four hours after entering what the IDF presents as a strategic Hamas military platform, the Israeli army confirmed that its "soldiers" were still deployed in the largest hospital complex in Gaza where they are still located, according to the UN, some 2,300 people. Among which are patients, caregivers, and even displaced people.

An adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the army had found weapons and "other things."

“We entered the hospital on the basis of actionable intelligence,” assured Mark Regev to the American television channel MSNBC. And while the terrorist organization denies Israel's accusations, the IDF claims to have found "munitions, weapons and military equipment" from Hamas.

In particular, photographs of weapons, grenades and other military equipment were published. “Images relating to hostages” captured during the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 were also found on computers seized during the intervention. According to Israeli authorities, no clashes or skirmishes occurred inside the hospital center, whether with civilians, patients or nursing staff

The unease of Israel's closest supporters.

Faced with this IDF military operation, the international community fears an irreversible deterioration of humanitarian conditions and access to care. The UN, which has repeatedly denounced the counter-offensive led by Israel, said it was "horrified" by the intervention of Israeli soldiers in a hospital compound.

Unease seems to be spreading even to Israel's closest supporters. American President Joe Biden called on the Israeli army during the night from Wednesday to Thursday to be “extremely cautious” in conducting its operation at the hospital. Washington also declared this Wednesday that it had not "given the green light to operations around the al-Chifa hospital", any more than it does for Israel's other military decisions.

For its part, France, which has claimed since the bloody attack of October 7 "Israel's right to defend itself", expressed 

"its very deep concern", believing that the Palestinian population had "no to pay for Hamas' crimes. On the sidelines of a trip to Switzerland, President Emmanuel Macron condemned “with the greatest firmness” the bombing of civilian infrastructure.

"Because Israel is a democracy, signatory to the same texts and the same charters as us, we have always said that this right to defend oneself must be part of international humanitarian law and respecting the rules of war, and therefore in particular the civilian populations,” he said.

Unsurprisingly, however, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday described Israel as a "terrorist state", denouncing the cost in human life of Israeli bombings in the Gaza Strip. A key mediator in the negotiations on the release of hostages still in the hands of Hamas, Qatar has for its part called for "an international investigation" into the Israeli raids on hospitals in Gaza, describing the operation in the al-Chifa establishment as "war crime".

A worsening humanitarian situation

Since October 7, the humanitarian situation in Gaza has continued to deteriorate. Despite a first delivery of just over 23,000 liters of fuel on Wednesday via the Rafah crossing in the south of the territory, the UN warned that its aid operations in Gaza were "on the verge of collapse" and the head of United Nations humanitarian affairs called on Wednesday for an end to “the carnage in Gaza”.

Due to lack of fuel, the Palestinian telecoms operator Paltel announced on Wednesday "a suspension of all telecommunications services within a few hours" and could "further threaten the lives of the population of Gaza", the Human Rights organization warned on Thursday. Watch.

On Wednesday, nearly 650 people, foreigners, dual nationals and wounded Palestinians, were evacuated to Egypt through Rafah, reported the Palestinian authority in charge of operations at the border terminal.

The Israeli army, for its part, assured to provide the hospital with “incubators, baby food and medical supplies”.

The focus on the humanitarian crisis in hospitals has reinforced international calls for a ceasefire, which for Hamas would likely mean an opportunity to regroup, recover and strike again.

And what exactly does international law say ?

An exception to the rule in cases of “harmful acts”

Under international law, hospitals are entitled to protection during conflicts. But they can become legitimate targets under certain conditions, particularly if they are used for military purposes.

This is also what Article 18 of the Geneva Convention relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War says: “Civilian hospitals organized to provide care to the wounded, the sick, the infirm and women in childbirth may not, under any circumstances, be the object of attacks; they will, at all times, be respected and protected by the parties to the conflict".

But, in the following article, an exception to this rule is specified. “The protection due to civilian hospitals may only cease if they are used to commit, outside of humanitarian duties, acts harmful to the enemy,” details the Convention, without defining the latter.

It was on this basis that Israeli troops struck targets near Gaza hospitals, and even targets located inside them, and entered medical buildings.

As they retreated from the hospital on Wednesday, Israeli soldiers left behind medicine, baby food and bottles of water.

The presence of weapons, if proven, could be included in the list of "harmful acts" and call into question the protection of the hospital, according to an article from the International Committee of the Red Cross, published on November 6.

“When they (hospitals) are used to directly or indirectly interfere in military operations and thereby harm the enemy, the rationale for this protection disappears.

This is particularly the case when a hospital is used as a launch base for an attack, an observation post used to transmit information of military interest, an arms depot, a liaison center with armed troops, or even to shelter able-bodied combatants", underlines the humanitarian aid institution.

Unlike Hamas, which does not claim to respect international conventions, it is up to Israel to prove that it is not violating international humanitarian law.  

ISRAEL’S LAND OPERATION

DESTROY HAMAS TUNNELS

The Israeli army announced, Tuesday, October 31 in a press release, the death of two of its soldiers in fighting in the north of the Gaza Strip. As it advances in the Palestinian enclave, it had reported earlier in the day "fierce fighting" with Hamas. For its part, the Palestinian Islamist movement claimed that its fighters had “annihilated” an Israeli force by ambushing it in a building in the north of the territory.

Convoys of armored vehicles of the Israeli army (IDF) were spotted on Monday on one of the main roads in the Gaza Strip, converging towards the center of Gaza City. The main objective of this ground operation is to target Hamas' complex network of underground tunnels, which represent a veritable city beneath the city, a labyrinth of virtually impenetrable galleries.

The infiltration of these underground tunnels remains the major challenge for the Israeli armed forces. Israel seeks to prevent this vast underground network, used by Hamas fighters, from becoming a trap for its soldiers. To analyze this underground maze, which could also shelter the hostages kidnapped during the terrorist attack of October 7, Israel is relying on the numerous surveillance technologies developed over the years.

Cyber ​​espionage against Hamas targets

Cyber ​​espionage against Hamas targets is one of the approaches employed. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu posted a 3D rendering of the tunnels beneath Shifa Hospital in Gaza on his X account (formerly Twitter) on October 27, although their existence cannot be confirmed.

Israeli forces have the capacity to deploy cyberespionage technologies against Hamas targets and their proxies. One of the most powerful spyware programs, Pegasus, was developed by the Israeli company NSO Group, and it allows you to infect a phone simply by sending an SMS. Smartphone traceability provides valuable information on the movements and possible hiding places of fighters. Attackers can also intercept communications, including targeting loved ones, to obtain sensitive information. Although there are no concrete tools to accurately model tunnels from the air, it is possible to monitor activity and pinpoint entry and exit points.

The IDF also has a fleet of spy planes, including recent models such as the Oron, tested last August and touted as an "intelligence jewel." Three Gulfstream G550 aircraft roam the skies to collect and analyze electromagnetic signals. All of these devices are used to intercept communications, collect real-time images and track movements.

On the satellite side, Israel has several surveillance devices. A small constellation of TecSAR, radar reconnaissance satellites, helps analyze changes and activities on the ground, reporting to the military any signs of new construction, for example. It is also possible to compare images and data to detect changes in infrastructure.

Iran's influence

The construction of this network of sophisticated underground tunnels by Hamas was a long-term project, spanning two decades. In the star-shaped tunnel, all sense of direction is abolished. Are we heading towards Gaza? Is it towards Egypt? We lose all points of reference. These tunnels are not built in a linear fashion, they are zigzag. They are on several levels. With arteries, rooms, halls, doors, electricity. It's a real military base. It is a military base under a civilian population.

They allow Hamas to operate far from the technological eyes of the State of Israel and the Israeli army, which is nevertheless one of the most efficient armies in the world.

The possibility of external influence, notably from Iran, is considered. Although this cannot be confirmed at the moment, there are similarities with other countries like North Korea or Iran, where wider tunnels could allow the passage of motorcycles or even trucks. It is also possible that certain locations are used for the manufacture and storage of weapons.

From a strategic perspective, a tunnel can serve a variety of purposes, including attacks, ambushes, kidnapping of civilians or soldiers, or even trafficking. Not all tunnels are the same, which means their detection and elimination may vary.

Current operation a considerable challenge

The current operation represents a considerable operational challenge. Israeli forces must navigate a dense urban environment with civilians present despite requested evacuations. Underground warfare itself is complex, and combating underground tunnels has always been a major challenge for armies. Finally, a delicate human dimension is added to the situation, with the protection of hostages, innocent civilians in Gaza, and the safety of the soldiers engaged in these operations as priorities.

"For Israel, this is an existential war. At this point, there is no question of losing the war, there is no question of a ceasefire either because it is a question of right to self-defense."

HAMAS-ISRAEL WAR

THE ROLE OF QATAR IN THE LIBERATION

OF HAMAS HOSTAGES

The two American citizens from the Chicago area were visiting relatives in Kibbutz Nahal Oz when, on October 7, during the Hamas attack on Israel, they were kidnapped. This incident marks the very first release of hostages held by the Palestinian Islamist movement since the start of the conflict.
The two women handed over to the Red Cross

The release of the two women, Judith and Natalie Raanan, was carried out at the border between Gaza and Israel, where they were handed over to staff of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), as evidenced by a video released by Hamas when they were released on Friday evening. In a statement, the ICRC expressed its relief, declaring that these two weeks of anguish had come to an end. Israeli special forces and Israel's hostage and missing persons coordinator also welcomed them.

Subsequently, the two women were transferred to central Israel, where family members awaited them at an Israeli military base. Judith's brother confirmed that both women are in good health and could return to the United States in the coming days. US President Joe Biden said he was extremely happy that they would soon be reunited with their families, after having had the opportunity to speak with them.

Three days after the release of an American woman and her daughter, Judith and Natalie Raanan, both hostages of Hamas, two Israeli women, from Kibbutz Nir Oz, close to the Gaza Strip, were released, Monday October 23. Hours after their release, the Israeli Prime Minister's office released their identities. They are Yocheved Lifschitz, 85 years old, and Nourit Kuper, aged 79 years old.

The two women were taken hostage along with their husbands, but both are still being held in the Gaza Strip. According to the spokesperson for Hamas' military wing, Abou Obeida, these women were released "for pressing humanitarian reasons", thanks to mediation from Qatar and Egypt. After being transported in a military helicopter, the two ex-hostages arrived at the Sourasky Medical Center in Tel Aviv, one on a stretcher and the other in a wheelchair.

Around 220 hostages are still being held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip, ten of whom are American nationals. According to the Israeli army, the majority of them are still alive.

Qatar's mediation

Qatar's mediation played a decisive role in this release, after several days of intense negotiations. Hamas' military spokesperson said in a statement that the hostages had been released "for humanitarian reasons" thanks to Qatar's mediation. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also praised Qatar's important contribution to the release, while French President Emmanuel Macron highlighted Qatar's crucial role in the matter.

In Doha, Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majid Al-Ansari praised the work of his government and expressed hope that these efforts will lead to the release of all civilian hostages of all nationalities.

Additionally, Hamas' military spokesperson said the release of the two hostages was intended to demonstrate to the American people and the entire world that the accusations made by the Joe Biden administration against Hamas were unfounded, a statement that was not well received by Israel.

"Hamas claims to the world to have released these women whom it had taken hostage for humanitarian reasons, whereas it is a murderous terrorist organization which is currently holding infants, children, women and the elderly,” replied Daniel Hagari, the spokesperson for the Israeli army.

Qatar's involvement in this liberation highlights this country's complex and influential role in the Middle East, particularly in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Qatar's diplomacy

Qatar, despite its small size, plays a central role in recent diplomatic maneuvers in the Middle East. Although its surface area is barely comparable to that of the Ile de France, its influence goes far beyond its borders.

The diplomatic web woven by Qatar over the last thirty years is impressive. This is based on pillars such as hydrocarbon reserves and a bold vision of diplomacy. In France, the brand of this canvas is notably embodied by the presence of the president of PSG, an example of sports diplomacy which culminated with the organization of the last World Cup, a costly but prestigious event.

Qatar also benefits from a considerable gas windfall, strengthening its influence, particularly in the context of an energy supply crisis following sanctions against Russia. With an ambitious football club, a thriving gas industry and the Al Jazeera news channel, dominant in the Arabic-speaking market, Qatar has become a key player.

Behind the facade of these elements, reprehensible networks are maintained. Qatar cultivates strong relations with regional players such as Iran and Hamas. Doha, the Qatari capital, hosts officials from the Islamist party that governs the Gaza Strip. These elements do not go unnoticed by countries seeking solutions to the ongoing crisis in the Middle East.

Distrust of Qatar ?

The emirate has demonstrated its skill by acting as a mediator in sensitive issues. During the major conflict between Israel and Gazan factions in 2014, he played this mediating role.

Israel is well aware of the close ties between Qatar and Hamas, whose financial survival the emirate has ensured for years, notably through millions of dollars in aid. Public statements leave little doubt as to which side Qatar appears to have chosen.

For example, hours after the Hamas attacks, Doha publicly held Israel solely responsible for the escalation. However, despite these statements, Qatar is home to the largest US military base in the Middle East. And “Qatar is the historic sponsor of Hamas at the request of the government of Israel and the United States,” declared criminology professor Alain Bauer on Cnews

This duality makes him an actor with an ambiguous position, capable of juggling his interests.

While a ceasefire is currently out of reach, the first area in which Qatar could exert its influence is that of the approximately 220 hostages still in the hands of Hamas terrorists. And so far with success...

UKRAINE ISRAEL THESE TWO MAJOR CONFLICTS

WHO ARE RESHALLING THE GEOPOLITICAL CARDS

Upon his arrival in Beijing on the evening of October 17, Vladimir Putin was officially present to participate in the annual forum on the New Silk Roads (Belt and Road Initiative, BRI). However, there is little doubt that, beyond his public declarations on this major project, the discussions between the Russian president and his Chinese "friend" mainly focused on the exceptional international situation generated by the recent escalation of violence. in the Middle-East.

Opening of a third front after Ukraine and East Asia

The sudden conflagration of this region, following the terrorist acts of Hamas against Israel on October 7 and the retaliation of the Jewish State, has created an unprecedented zone of instability. This new instability has opened up an unexpected opportunity for China and Russia. It requires the involvement of American armed forces on a third front, in addition to the existing fronts in Ukraine and East Asia.

For his part, US President Joe Biden visited Israel on October 18 to reaffirm US support. He also obtained permission from the Israeli government to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza before any major military intervention in this enclave, where around two million Palestinians live. This intervention aims to destroy Hamas infrastructure.

The American president reminded Benjamin Netanyahu that the world was paying attention to the situation. He urged Israel to take all necessary measures to protect civilians in Gaza from any consequences of the Israeli army's imminent assault. “The world is watching,” Joe Biden reminded Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel has the same values ​​as the United States and other democracies and they are watching what we are going to do. " In response, the Israeli prime minister promised: "Israel will do everything it can to ensure that civilians are not harmed." »

On Wednesday, Israel announced that it would allow humanitarian aid (water, food and medicine) to enter the Gaza Strip from the Egyptian border, a decision it had previously refused. However, this gesture by Israel may not be enough to ease regional tensions, especially since the country has massed a large contingent of soldiers and reservists, as well as an impressive military arsenal on the outskirts of Gaza, in preparation to a possible invasion.

The announcement by Hamas of the bombing of a hospital attributed to the IDF, which would have led to the death of hundreds of Palestinians, immediately triggered a wave of anger in the Arab-Muslim world. The Israeli government quickly denied any involvement in this bombing. It was subsequently established, thanks to Israeli and American intelligence services, that this catastrophe was probably due to a failed rocket launch by Islamic Jihad, an ally of Hamas. It will take time for the region to return to stability.

An unexpected window for Moscow and Beijing ?

This situation has raised concerns in Washington about the medium and long-term consequences of these tragic events, in a region which is already a real powder keg. The military commitment of the United States is already heavily strained by its support for Ukraine to repel the Russian invasion since February 2022 and its presence in the East Asian region, where tensions with China n have never been so lively, especially around Taiwan.
Opening a third front in the Middle East would pose a serious challenge for the United States, and this situation could represent an opportunity for China and Russia, who could be tempted to extend their military influence in these two territories. .

For America this risks becoming a major headache if the conflict between Israel and Hamas were to extend to neighboring countries, in particular over-armed Iran but also Lebanon and Syria. This conflict will also bury for a long time the prospect of recognition of Israel that Saudi Arabia was preparing to ratify under the aegis of the United States.

It is moreover this perspective which probably led Iran to play a determining role in the preparation of Hamas attacks in Israel, believe many analysts. This cross-recognition between Jerusalem and Riyadh would also have constituted a major success for the United States in the Middle East where China has scored undeniable diplomatic points since the beginning of this year.

Anti-Western position of China and Russia...

The evolution of the Chinese position since the Hamas attack on October 7 is obvious. Initially reluctant to label the attack "terrorist" and opting for diplomatic caution, China has recently swung in favor of the Palestinians. This change in position was accompanied by a public communication to Iran, which in turn warned Israel of a possible “preventive attack” in the event of military intervention by the IDF in Gaza.

Meanwhile, the United States has mobilized two aircraft carriers and deployed about 15,000 Marines off the coasts of Israel and Iran, while warning both countries not to get directly involved in the ongoing conflict. It is common knowledge that China has maintained close ties for many years, some of which remain confidential, with Tehran, as well as with Hamas.

Last weekend, China raised its voice over the Israeli response to Hamas attacks. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the bombing of Gaza "goes beyond self-defense" and stressed the need for Israel to end what he called "collective punishment inflicted on people of Gaza."
On October 13, Russian President Vladimir Putin went even further, making a shocking analogy. According to Putin, if the siege of Gaza, imposed by Israel, were to intensify, it could evoke memories of the siege of Stalingrad by Nazi Germany during World War II. This historical comparison deeply offended Israelis.

What about the Sino-American relationship ?

Alongside this crisis in Israel, the already tense Sino-American relationship continues to deteriorate, as two crucial deadlines approach: the presidential election in Taiwan in January 2023 and the American presidential elections in November 2024.

Xi Jinping has renewed dialogue with Washington in recent months, but obstacles persist, particularly linked to crucial issues for China, such as Taiwan, democracy, human rights and economic development. The big question is whether or not Xi Jinping will participate in the next edition of APEC: the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum will take place from November 11 to 17 in San Francisco. If the Chinese president agreed to come, it could be the scene of a bilateral summit with Joe Biden.

The crisis in Israel has underscored a broader trend: the distancing of China and Russia from the West in favor of alliances with authoritarian regimes like Iran, Afghanistan and North Korea. China is also working to strengthen ties with countries in the Global South, seeking to capitalize on a common hostility toward the West, hoping to take the leadership of that group in confronting America and its allies.

To use a phrase from researcher Alexandra Novosseloff, “It is these powers which regulate the metronome of the evolution of these conflicts through their agreement or, most often, their division, or even their confrontation. One of the major characteristics of conflicts frozen is that they are both internal conflicts and interstate conflicts."

HUMANITARIAN AID CONVOYS

WILL ENTER GAZA

Dozens of trucks full of international aid have been waiting in Egypt for several days, waiting for the opportunity to reach Gaza. However, it is imperative that this aid be substantial, of the order of 100 trucks per day, and that it be secure, according to statements by Martin Griffiths, the head of United Nations humanitarian emergencies.
Water and food are lacking for the 2.4 million inhabitants of Gaza, also deprived of electricity, after the siege imposed by Israel since October 9 on the enclave, already subject to a land, sea and air blockade. since 2007.

Russia announced Thursday, October 20, 2023 that it will soon deliver 27 tons of humanitarian aid, given to representatives of the Egyptian Red Crescent, for civilians in the Gaza Strip.

"A special plane (...) flew from the Ramenskoye airfield near Moscow to El-Arich airport in Egypt. Russian humanitarian aid will be handed over to representatives of the Red Crescent Egyptian to be sent to the Gaza Strip,” Deputy Minister Ilia Denissov was quoted as saying in a statement, without however specifying when this plane took off. “The population will receive flour, sugar, rice (and) pasta,” he added.

Russia has not specified when its aid should be delivered to civilians in the Gaza Strip.

On Wednesday, the American and Egyptian presidents announced that the passage of humanitarian aid from Egypt to Gaza would be possible. Many aid shipments have been waiting for days on the other side of the border.

Joe Biden in Israel on Wednesday

This announcement comes after Joe Biden's visit to Israel, where he reaffirmed his support for his ally. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak took to the region on Thursday, in Israel and several other capitals, to call for avoiding an escalation of the war. Meanwhile, in Beijing, Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed his desire to cooperate with Egypt to bring more stability to the region and the world.

Road impassable due to bombing

Joe Biden, who also came to the region to guarantee access for international aid to Gaza, claimed to have obtained the agreement of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi to allow up to 20 trucks to pass through the Gaza crossing. Rafah, the only one not controlled by Israel. However, it is likely that this aid will not arrive before Friday due to work to be carried out on the road, damaged by Israeli bombing.

Subsequently, the spokesperson for the Egyptian presidency confirmed that Abdel Fattah al-Sissi and Joe Biden, after their telephone conversation on Wednesday evening, had agreed to sustainably transport humanitarian aid to the strip. from Gaza via the Rafah crossing.

Israel agreed to the passage of the aid, but set one condition. This assistance will not pass through its territory until the hostages held by Hamas are released. The Palestinian movement claims the holding of between 200 and 250 hostages, while Israel says at least 199 of them are being held.

On Wednesday, the United States vetoed a UN Security Council resolution that called for a "humanitarian pause." Washington criticizes this text for not mentioning "Israel's right to defend itself".

FACED BY HORROR ISRAEL EXPOSES THE REMAINS OF HAMAS VICTIMS

The toll of Hamas's barbaric attack on the south of the country last week is unbearable: more than 1,300 dead in atrocious conditions, 3,526 injured, some very seriously, 400 people missing.

According to IDF estimates, between 150 and 200 people are being held hostage in Gaza.

“…never seen this degree of barbarity”

At the Tel Aviv Forensic Institute, the horror is indescribable. The remains of Israeli victims, murdered by Hamas on October 7, are gathered there with a view to their identification. Among them, bodies burned, mutilated and in an advanced state of decomposition, a macabre scene to which forensic doctors, dressed in green overalls, tackle like a morbid puzzle, trying to reconstruct these human remains as much as possible. The corpses lie before examination on wheeled stretchers, carefully wrapped in thick black plastic bags.

Some of these bags are small, corresponding to that of a child. Each body is carefully numbered and comes from various localities, transported by volunteers, mainly Orthodox Jews. In accordance with Jewish tradition, a body may only be buried if it is complete, as far as possible.

“We chose to show this horror because some accuse us of lying, claiming that we are showing dog bones,” confessed the director of the Institute, Doctor Hen Kugel, overcome by emotion, according to reports from the French media like Le Point. “This is my 31st year in this profession. I have never been confronted with such a degree of barbarity, such cruelty, such relentlessness. It is simply abominable,” he added in tears.

Thousands of victims

Israeli authorities have recorded more than 1,400 deaths since the attack on October 7, 2023, perpetrated by hundreds of Hamas members from the Gaza Strip who attempted to infiltrate localities and kibbutzim adjacent to the territory. Palestinian. Simultaneously, Israel carried out strikes on Gaza, where local authorities reported around 2,750 deaths.

For the identification of the bodies, in addition to the seven forensic doctors from the Tel Aviv Institute, an anthropologist, a radiologist and eight geneticists are involved, with the support of around thirty volunteers.

HOW COULD ISRAELI INTELLIGENCE SERVICES MISS

HAMAS’ PREPARATIONS ?

ISRAEL - HAMAS WAR "DESTROY HAMAS"

“Destroy” Hamas”

Concerning human losses, the current toll is 1,200 deaths on both sides, with prospects of increasing as the recovery and identification operations of the bodies continue. Many people are still missing, according to information provided by the army.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, recently at the head of an emergency government formed with his rival Benny Gantz, said his country was now “in offensive mode”. He warned that "any member of Hamas is a dead man" and compared Hamas to ISIS, promising to crush and destroy them, just as ISIS was destroyed by the world. These statements mark the first clear expression of Israel's intention to "destroy" Hamas.

Stories of atrocities perpetrated by Palestinian fighters in Israel deeply moved Benjamin Netanyahu.

He described acts of unbearable cruelty, highlighting the barbarity of their actions.

“We saw little children tied up and shot in the head, people burned alive, young girls raped and massacred, soldiers beheaded (...). In one place, they put people together, brought tires and gasoline and burned them alive,” he said. Israel mobilized 300,000 reservists and deployed tens of thousands of troops to the outskirts. from the Gaza Strip, raising fears of an imminent ground offensive.

More than 1,200 dead in each of the two camps

In Israel, human losses exceed 1,200, mainly civilians, according to the spokesperson for the Israeli army. NGOs report that more than 100 people were killed in the Beeri kibbutz alone, and at least 270 at a rave party near Gaza. The results remain uncertain for the kibbutz of Kfar Aza where atrocities on babies have been reported. On the Palestinian side, the death toll also stands at 1,200, with around 5,600 injured, according to the latest report from the Gaza authorities.
Several countries have started to repatriate their nationals stranded in Israel and the Palestinian territories. Israel has admitted to kidnappings of civilians and military personnel, while many foreign nationals remain missing.

In the Gaza Strip, where 2.3 million Palestinians live in difficult conditions, more than 338,000 people have been displaced due to the bombings. Water, electricity and food supplies have been cut off by Israel, worsening the already precarious humanitarian situation. Dozens of buildings, factories, mosques and stores were destroyed during the strikes.

Lebanon and the West Bank hit by Israel

On Wednesday, the Israeli army once again struck southern Lebanon, in response to rocket fire from Hezbollah, an ally of Hamas. In the West Bank, Palestinian territory occupied by Israel since 1967, six Palestinians were killed on Wednesday, four in an attack by Israeli settlers and two by soldiers, according to the Palestinian Authority. Since Saturday, twenty-nine Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank in violence linked to the conflict between Israel and Hamas.

Blinken solidarity visit and help from Germany

On the political front, Netanyahu and Gantz announced the formation of an emergency government and war cabinet for the duration of the conflict.

This announcement came on the eve of the arrival in Israel on Thursday of American Secretary of State Antony Blinken for a solidarity visit, and while the United States said it was ready “if necessary” to deploy a second aircraft carrier for deterrence purposes. The first weapons from the United States arrived at their destination on Wednesday.

According to an official Turkish source, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan launched a process of negotiations with Hamas with a view to obtaining the release of the hostages after the Palestinian movement threatened to execute them.

Westerners supported Israel, Russian President Vladimir Putin called for negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians and the Arab League condemned the siege imposed by Israel on Gaza. Germany also gave the green light to Israel to use two HeronTP combat drones.

DEADLY HAMAS ATTACK

ISRAEL WILL AVENGE THIS BLACK DAY

BY A MERCYLESS WAR

Prime Minister Benjamin pledged to deploy the full force of the Israeli army against the Palestinian terror group Hamas in the Gaza Strip on Saturday evening, warning Israelis of the difficult days ahead.

“The IDF will act immediately to destroy the capabilities of Hamas,” Netanyahu said in a televised address, as terrorists remained holed up with hostages in at least three locations in Israel.

“We will paralyze them mercilessly and avenge this black day they inflicted on Israel and its citizens.”

"The people of Gaza must leave now. We will be everywhere and with all our strength," he added, as thousands of reservists headed towards military bases in preparation for a widely expected counter-offensive.

In his speech on Monday, he detailed the five points of his program:

regain control of the territory and "eliminate the terrorists" still present in Israel, carry out a "massive" attack against Hamas with "unprecedented force", "reinforce the other fronts, in the north against Hezbollah" and in the West Bank, continue the campaign to guarantee the support of the international community and finally "the unity of the people" with the formation of a government of national unity.

The faultlines on the Israeli side

During this war, similar to that of 1973, the brutal outbreak deeply shocked the Israelis. Israeli military intelligence had warned the government that enemies perceived Israel as vulnerable, but they did not expect a Hamas attack at that time.

They believed that Hamas mainly wanted to govern Gaza and not start a war against Israel.

However, Hamas carefully planned this attack for many months, representing Israel's worst intelligence failure since 1973.

The flaws on the Israeli side manifested themselves on two levels, notably in the field of intelligence. Until now well informed about the situation in the Gaza Strip, Shabak recently lost its sources within Hamas.

This blindness is surprising, because journalists had reported that Hamas militants were regularly training on motorcycles and learning to fly microlights in recent months.

Despite this, the Israeli services did not anticipate anything, thus highlighting a major flaw that they will have to justify.
This intelligence failure is often the result of gaps in the political-military conception of the country. A parallel can be made with the Yom Kippur War fifty years ago.

Despite ample intelligence about a possible Egyptian attack, politicians refused to believe it due to a strategic misconception that Egypt was too weak to launch an attack.

Similarly, the current political-strategic conception, defended for years by Netanyahu, minimizes the threat of Hamas and aims to preserve its presence in the Gaza Strip to justify the absence of a partner for peace, due to divisions in within Palestinian society between Hamas and Fatah.

For Netanyahu and the Israeli right, Hamas has become a kind of insurance against international pressure. Netanyahu had even privately expressed that Hamas' persistence was in Israel's interests. So money from Qatar was flowing to Hamas, and around 20,000 Gazans were allowed to work in Israel to make life under Hamas livable.

The intelligence services were influenced by this vision minimizing the threat from Hamas. Recently, Tzachi Hanegbi, head of the National Security Council and close to Netanyahu, declared that Hamas had no intention of resuming hostilities.

Intelligence services and many analysts also believed that Hamas preferred to export Palestinian violence to the Israeli-occupied West Bank, to help undermine the little power of an already weak and unpopular Palestinian Authority, led by rival Fatah. Hamas policy.

These assumptions turned out to be woefully wrong, as were intelligence assessments before the outbreak of the 1973 war. Then, as now, Israel's adversaries were not deterred by its superiority military.

The intelligence services have therefore fallen asleep, largely due to the government's posture. In recent months, the prime minister has been focused on his fight to take control of the Supreme Court, his top priority until October 7.

This time, the failure is even more glaring, given Israel's intelligence-gathering capabilities. Hamas must have carefully planned this attack for many months. This is undoubtedly Israel's worst intelligence failure since the 1973 war.

Intelligence failure, but also military failure, with the Israeli Defense Forces massively deployed in the West Bank and clearly unprepared for an attack of this magnitude from the Gaza side. The sudden Hamas attack revealed major gaps in Israeli intelligence . The failure to anticipate this attack is due in part to a view that downplays the threat posed by Hamas.

Implications of the Hamas Assault

A complex internal debate raged inside Hamas. Since the execution or disappearance of the main founders of the organization which claims to be the Muslim Brotherhood, contradictory options have existed on how to exercise power (in Gaza), to conquer it (within what remains of the Palestinian Authority) and resolve the conflict with Israel. The military wing led by Mohammed Deif and the head of Hamas in Saza, Yahia Sinwar, seem to have gained the upper hand over the "politicians" who are most often in Damascus, Tehran and, it is sometimes said, Istanbul.

The kidnapping of Israeli citizens in order to exchange them for Hamas members detained in Israel has long been a major objective of the Islamist movement's military operations.

An emblematic case dates back to 2011 when Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier detained in Gaza since 2006, was exchanged for more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, including Yahya Sinwar, current leader of Hamas in Gaza, who had spent 22 years in prison in Israel.
Reports of dozens of Israelis, including many civilians, captured by Hamas during this weekend's assault suggest the kidnapping may be a central motive for the attack. An unknown number of hostages, held for hours by Hamas militants in two towns in southern Israel, were finally freed by Israeli special forces.

Another, broader Hamas goal could be to undermine ongoing negotiations between the United States and Saudi Arabia for a deal to normalize relations between the kingdom and Israel. The failure of these talks would be a boon for Iran, one of Hamas' main supporters, and for its allies.

Tehran has said it supports Hamas attacks against Israel, although it is not yet clear whether Iran or Hezbollah, a Lebanese Shiite group in growing partnership with Hamas, will open other fronts in the coming days, although the latter had already fired shells against Israeli territory on October 8.

Any escalation of the conflict from Iran or Lebanon would pose serious problems for Israel. The same would happen if the war against Hamas exacerbated the already very sensitive tensions and violent clashes between Israel and Palestinian militant groups in the West Bank.

Israeli strategy and military reality

The rhetoric of military victory does not reflect the complexity of this conflict. Hamas cannot be treated like a traditional army, which makes any military solution difficult. Hamas is not a regular army that can be defeated on the battlefield and whose surrender can be obtained. It is a very decentralized paramilitary organization, whose fighters, who hide in tunnels, are very difficult to flush out. The Israeli air force will not be enough.

To achieve this, we would have to enter Gaza with tanks and thousands of men, and there would be

Discourse focused on a military victory does not capture the complexity of this conflict. Hamas cannot be understood as a conventional armed force, which complicates any military resolution.

This is not a conventional army that can be defeated on the battlefield and forced to surrender. It is a highly decentralized paramilitary organization, with fighters hidden in tunnels, making them extremely difficult to spot. The Israeli Air Force alone cannot solve this problem.

To achieve a solution, it would be necessary to commit tanks and thousands of men to Gaza, which would result in high casualties on both sides, both among Gazan civilians and among Israeli soldiers. There is also the hostage factor to consider. What are Hamas' intentions towards all the hostages it took to Gaza?

Currently, Hamas has no interest in negotiating the release of the hostages. Assuming, for example, that the movement secures the release of all its prisoners currently held in Israel and frees the Israeli hostages it is holding, it would then lose a powerful human shield. Israel could launch a massive attack on the Gaza Strip without fear of causing the death of its citizens.

There may be negotiations, but they won't happen for a while. In the meantime, these hostages will likely be scattered throughout the Gaza Strip, forcing the military to be extremely careful in every bombing decision.

The current violence has only just begun, but it could become the bloodiest in decades, perhaps even since the war between Israel and the Palestinians in Lebanon in the 1980s.

ISRAEL ATTACKED BY HAMAS

CARNAGE AT A HOSTAGE FESTIVAL IN GAZA

EMBARKED IN A LONG AND DIFFICULT WAR

Israeli President Isaac Herzog called for "unity in the people, in Parliament and in an emergency government."

The Israeli army has deployed tens of thousands of soldiers to regain full control of the desert regions near the Gaza Strip, rescue the Israeli hostages who are still there and evacuate all the inhabitants of the region here until Monday morning. Hamas has taken “more than 100 prisoners,” the Government Press Office (GPO) said on Sunday.

During the night, army airstrikes continued on the Gaza Strip, a Palestinian territory under Hamas control. Fighting also continued on the ground between Israeli forces and armed elements of this Islamist movement who had infiltrated Israel since the day before.

The siege of the police station in the Israeli town of Sderot, bordering Gaza, where Hamas gunmen were holed up ended this Sunday morning, police announced in a statement: police and army special forces Israeli "neutralized ten armed terrorists who were in the police station."

“The enemy is still on the ground” in Israel, “we are reinforcing our forces especially near Gaza and are clearing the area”, declared Sunday evening the spokesperson for the Israeli army, promising to hunt down “terrorists wherever they will be".

Hundreds of deaths

The fighting left at least 700 dead and 2150 injured on the Israeli side. Dual nationals are among the victims.

In the Gaza Strip, Hamas has at this stage counted 700 dead and 2,125 injured.

“We killed 400 terrorists,” an IDF spokesperson said this Sunday.

“Civilians and soldiers are in the hands of the enemy, it is time for war,” said the head of the Israeli army, Herzi Halevi.

"Several" Americans were killed in the Hamas offensive, according to an American official, as well as ten Nepalis as well as nationals of other countries, including a French woman. The Canadian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported "the death of a Canadian and the disappearance of two others."

Taking advantage of the surprise effect of its attack, completely unanticipated by Israel, Hamas fighters aboard vehicles, boats and even motorized paragliders made use of the imposing barrier erected by Israel around the Gaza Strip , attacking military positions or civilians in the middle of the street.

“Hundreds of terrorists entered Israel from Gaza” and “attacked dozens of Israeli communities,” said Lieutenant Jonathan Conricus, former international spokesperson for the Israeli army.

"They came door to door, house to house, looking for Israeli civilians. Some were executed in cold blood" in their homes, he added. These incursions were in addition to the launching of thousands of rockets into Israel.

Soldiers and civilians captured

Hamas also captured a significant number of civilians and soldiers during this operation which it called

“Al-Aqsa flood”.

The Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, the armed wing of Hamas, claimed in a video to have “captured several enemy soldiers” and the al-Quds Brigades, the military branch of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, also declared that they were holding “numerous soldiers” Israeli.

On Saturday morning, dozens of terrorists entered Kibbutz Beeri, created in 1946 as part of a strategic plan to help the future state resist an Egyptian invasion.

Hamas troops yesterday gradually took control of the entire kibbutz, whose 1,200 inhabitants make it the largest of the 25 villages that make up the Eshkol regional council.

Several members of the kibbutz were reportedly kidnapped and taken to the Gaza Strip. The terrorist operation was part of an unprecedented raid carried out by hundreds of Hamas gunmen, who managed to easily cross the border area under tension, penetrating into at least three towns – Ofakim, Sderot and Netivot – and several villages

The Nova Festival held in the Negev desert, near the Gaza Strip, was attacked by Palestinian movement fighters at the start of Saturday's offensive. According to Israeli media, at least 260 festival-goers have died. Others are missing, probably kidnapped.

The Israeli online news site Ynet puts forward "an estimate of around a hundred people [...] kidnapped" while the authorities have not yet given any figures.

“We have a significant number of Israelis being held by Hamas in Gaza,” assured an Israeli army spokesperson in a video published on X.

For Hamas, hostages are a formidable means of pressure

Despite their imprecision, these figures are staggering, as is the toll of 600 Israeli deaths, which exceeds all Israeli deaths at the hands of Palestinians since the end of the second intifada and the disengagement from Gaza in 2005. In a a small country of 9 million inhabitants, this means that a huge part of the population knows one of the victims directly or indirectly.

The objective of Hamas is to destroy the State of Israel and establish a Palestinian Islamic state throughout the territory of the former Palestine within its borders of June 4, 1967, (territory comprising today Israel, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip) and to have Jerusalem as its capital

For the Islamist movement, these captives are a formidable means of pressure. As of Saturday, a senior executive, Saleh Al-Arouri, affirmed that the organization now had the means to free all Palestinian activists detained in Israel, by exchanging them.

In 2011, a previous government of Benjamin Netanyahu had 1,027 Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for a single hostage, soldier Gilat Shalit, captured by Hamas in a raid of unprecedented scale, and detained for more than five years. Yahya Sinouar, the current leader of Hamas in Gaza, owes him his freedom.

Aware of the value of these captures, the Palestinian movement set up a specialized group responsible for monitoring the prisoners. This is the "shadow unit", created in 2006, and whose existence was revealed in 2016.

She became known in particular by broadcasting a video of soldier Shalit which showed, among other things, the hostage having a barbecue on a beach in Gaza, or watching TV.

" Unprecedented "

“What happened today is unprecedented in Israel,” admitted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a televised address.

“All these places where Hamas hides (...) we are going to turn them into ruins.”

“We are on the verge of winning a great victory,” said Ismaïl Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas.

This escalation comes fifty years and one day after the start of the 1973 Arab-Israeli war which took Israel completely by surprise, leading to the death of 2,600 Israelis and leaving at least 9,500 dead and missing on the Arab side in three weeks of combat. .

It is the deadliest escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in decades.

The incursion into Gaza came a day after the 50th anniversary of the surprise invasion of Israel by the Egyptian and Syrian armies in the Yom Kippur War, a traumatic event that shook many Israelis' confidence in the vigilance of the military and political leaders of the country.

“But the Yom Kippur War was fought at the front. The feeling of helplessness and vulnerability when your own home is attacked – it is more reminiscent of the 1948 War of Independence,” said Barzilai, who lives in Jerusalem.

According to the Wall Street Journal, which cites senior Hamas and Hezbollah officials, Iran approved Hamas' offensive on Israeli soil during a meeting held last Monday in Beirut, Lebanon. An assertion denied by Tehran to the United Nations.

“The attack, sophisticated, powerful and coordinated, powerfully aided by Iran, has just put an end to the illusion of peace and the plan resulting from the Oslo Accords,” according to Alain Bauer.

LARGE-SCALE TERRORIST OPERATION

OF HAMAS AGAINST ISRAEL

Warning sirens sounded at dawn. Hundreds of rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip towards Israel on Saturday October 7, 2023. The armed wing of Hamas immediately announced that it had launched the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation against Israel.

“We have decided to put an end to all the crimes of the occupation,” declared Mohammad Deif, commander of the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, in an audio recording broadcast by Al-Aqsa TV, the television channel of Hamas, an Islamist movement. in power in Gaza.

“More than 5,000 rockets” have been fired since this morning, he said. Hezbollah, support of Hamas, hails a “heroic large-scale” and “victorious” operation, and says it is “in direct contact with the command” of what it describes as “the Palestinian resistance”.

Hamas announces having captured several Israeli soldiers. Several videos on social media show Hamas activists posing with people presented as Israeli hostages. Footage believed to have been filmed in Gaza shows a pickup truck carrying armed Hamas militants, with Israeli prisoners on board.

These strikes left at least 22 dead and around 545 injured according to the Israeli government.

For its part, the Israeli army reports the infiltration of an undetermined number of “terrorists” from Gaza.

At the same time, the Israeli army, cited by the Israeli daily Haaretz, affirms that terrorists have infiltrated from Gaza by "sea, air and land". According to the same source, fighting on Israeli soil is underway and a local elected official was killed during exchanges of fire with attackers. Hamas “will pay an unprecedented price” for its “war”, declared Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Follow the evolution of the situation live.

Israeli airstrikes in retaliation: Operation “Iron Swords”

The Palestinian Islamist movement has launched "a war against the State of Israel", responded Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. In retaliation, the Israeli army announced that several "dozens (of its) combat aircraft (were) currently striking a number of targets" of Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
In response to Hamas's strikes, Israel launched Operation Iron Swords and began bombing Gaza. The Israeli army confirmed that several “dozens of [its] combat aircraft were currently striking a number of Hamas targets” in this territory. “We are at war and we will win,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also declared in a video message on Saturday.

The Israeli army also reported, on Saturday morning, the infiltration of “an undetermined number of terrorists” into Israeli territory from the Gaza Strip. “Residents in areas neighboring the Gaza Strip have been asked to stay at home,” the army added. The Israeli military said Hamas was behind a "combined attack, including rocket fire and terrorist infiltration into Israeli territory from the Gaza Strip."

Images circulating on social networks show Hamas fighters having taken over an Israeli army position, clashes in the streets of the town of Sderot, armed men shooting at civilians' cars.

The end of the truce observed since May.

This operation claimed by Hamas puts an end to a truce generally respected since the end of a five-day war in May. Israel then launched an offensive against Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip, which cost the lives of 34 Palestinians and one Israeli woman. More than a thousand rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip towards Israel, most of them intercepted by the Israeli air defense system. Israel, for its part, had increased airstrikes on the small territory. A truce, brokered by Egypt, was then concluded between Israel and Gaza.

Hamas, which took power in Gaza in 2007, had stayed away from this conflict.

Since the start of the year, violence linked to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has increased and cost the lives of at least 247 Palestinians, 33 Israelis, a Ukrainian and an Italian. This toll includes, on the Palestinian side, combatants and civilians, and on the Israeli side, mostly civilians and three members of the Arab minority.

The head of the Israeli Defense Ministry body in charge of civil operations in the Palestinian Territories (COGAT) releases a video in which he warns the enemy in Arabic. “Hamas has opened the gates of hell on Gaza, Hamas has made this decision and will pay the price,” warns Ghassan Aliyan.

THE NOCE CLOSES ON AFGHAN WOMEN

“Not content with depriving girls and women of education, employment and freedom of movement, the Taliban also want to take away parks and sports, and now even nature,” criticized Heather Barr, deputy director of women's rights for the NGO Human Rights Watch.

“Step by step, the walls are closing in on women, each home becoming a prison,” she denounced in a press release.

“It’s also about your ability to feel joy,” she insisted, describing this decision.

“Tourism is not obligatory.”

The Minister of Prevention of Vice and Promotion of Virtue, Mohammad Khalid Hanafi, justified the ban on Saturday during a visit to the province of Bamyan by the fact that the wearing of the hijab (clothing covering the body and the head) had not been respected over the past two years.

"We must take serious action today. We must prevent hijab disrespect," he said.

“Women and our sisters will no longer be able to go to Band-e-Amir until we establish guidelines […].

Tourism exists, they can do tourism, but tourism is not obligatory,” he added.

“This explanation about the fact that a woman does not wear a correct hijab does not make the slightest sense,” lamented the NGO.

Since their return to power in August 2021, the Taliban government, with its austere interpretation of Islam, has continued to reduce the rights of Afghan women.

In two years, secondary schools and then universities closed their doors to women.

Parks, gyms and hammams are also prohibited. Prevented from working for NGOs and excluded from most civil servant positions, Afghan women must also cover themselves fully when leaving their homes.

The main tourist spot in Afghanistan, the Bamyan valley located in the center of the country is famous for its niches dug into the cliff, now empty of giant Buddhas after their destruction in 2001 by the Taliban, but also for its network of turquoise and sapphire lakes. Nearby Band-e-Amir , listed as a UNESCO heritage site in 2003 .

ANTONY BLINKEN STATES BEFORE THE COUNCIL

NATIONS SECURITY THAN HUNGER

MUST NOT BE A WEAPON OF WAR

the use of hunger as a weapon of war is an unacceptable aberration which must be stopped.

With palpable determination, he seized the opportunity to level harsh criticism at Russia for its decision to withdraw from the grain export pact through the Black Sea.

“In the corridors of the Kremlin, the assertion is made that the breakdown of this agreement stems from the obstacles imposed by international sanctions, supposedly harmful to agricultural exports.

In truth, it is essential to note that these sanctions explicitly exclude foodstuffs as well as fertilizers from their effects,” Blinken asserted with ironclad firmness, before an attentive assembly.

Subsequently, the Secretary of State proceeded to shed more light on the context, revealing that shortly after Moscow distanced itself from this initiative, Russia had embarked on grain exports at prices "reaching unprecedented heights".

"Globally, the tariffs applied to cereals have registered an increase exceeding 8% throughout the world", he added, thus illustrating the impact of this decision on international markets.

Mr. Blinken made a point of stressing that, despite the absence of such an initiative, which, according to general opinion, "should never have been necessary", it nevertheless generated "tangible and concrete results".

"The shipments undertaken have played a significant role in reducing world food prices by around a quarter, for the benefit of all, since the intervention in question", he explained with conviction.

Last July, the Russian authorities announced the termination of the grain export agreement, citing shortcomings on the side of kyiv.

It should be recalled that this agreement was born a year ago, in the Turkish city of Istanbul, under the joint mediation of the Turkish authorities and the United Nations.

These eloquently articulated remarks by Antony Blinken highlight the categorical imperative to outlaw any manipulation of hunger for warlike ends, while exposing the latent tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the economic implications for the global scale generated by such approaches.

The urgency of effective diplomacy and peaceful solutions is reinforced by this advocacy, with a view to preserving international stability and security.

JAPAN PREPARES TO DISCHARGE WATER FROM FUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR POWER PLANT INTO OCEAN

the discharge of these waters into the ocean!

According to information from government sources, this move could take shape between the end of August and the beginning of September, following a trilateral summit involving the United States and South Korea.

Although the exact date of this launch remains to be established, the Japanese authorities maintain their commitment to the announced period, located between spring and summer of this year.

At a press conference, Hirokazu Matsuno, the government spokesperson, stressed that the decision to release the treated water will be taken once all the safety measures have been thoroughly validated.

He also hinted that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida could play a crucial role in this process, hinting at the start of the operation following his return from the trilateral summit scheduled for August 18 at Camp David, a presidential residence. close to Washington.

In an effort to assuage the legitimate concerns of fishermen and local stakeholders, the government has taken initiatives to explain in detail the safety protocols that will be applied. Matsuno assured:

"We have passed on to local fishermen and businesses all the safety guarantees related to this process.

In order to address your concerns and needs, we will continue our efforts to ensure your safety and your continued presence at work."

A concern for transparency also informs this approach, with Japan's commitment to explain the decision to discharge the treated water in a way that is both scientific and understandable.

The government spokesperson affirmed that this communication would be based on "scientific foundations and exemplary transparency", thus demonstrating the importance given to gaining public trust.

Japan's announcement comes after the support expressed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) last July, which deemed the plan drawn up by the Japanese government for the dumping of treated water in the sea.

The current stages of contaminated water treatment, carried out through the ALPS system, have succeeded in eliminating most of the radioactive elements, with the exception of tritium. This water is then stored in barrels before being released into the ocean.

Faced with increasing constraints on the storage space available at the plant site, the Japanese government and Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO), the plant's operating company, took the pragmatic decision to resort to dumping in the ocean. .

This approach, although controversial, is justified by the need to safely manage the growing volume of treated water while minimizing environmental risks.

In sum, Japan's imminent approach to dump treated water from Fukushima into the ocean is sparking a complex debate about issues of safety, transparency and sustainability.

As Japanese authorities work to put in place science-based and transparent measures to manage this ongoing nuclear crisis, preserving the future of the region and its ecosystems remains at the heart of global concerns.

THE AFFIRMED RETURN OF RUSSIA TO

THE AFRICAN CONTINENT AT THE SUMMIT

FROM SAINT-PETERSBURG

This year, Russia intends to strengthen ties with the continent, by implementing more specific action plans. Round tables are planned, on subjects ranging from health to logistics, including the question of fertilizers and even nuclear energy.

"To African problems there must be African answers",

For African countries, a rapprochement with Moscow would make it possible to no longer be under Western and Chinese influence in the fields of economy and diplomacy. As such, Vladimir Putin's well-constructed strategy is working: "There must be African responses to African problems", declared the Russian Head of State on 24 July.

s. Geopolitics is also influenced by the war in Ukraine. After the end of the cereal agreement, a source of concern for the continent, the Kremlin wants to reassure by ensuring that it takes over.

Russian President Vladimir Putin effectively told African leaders on Thursday, July 27, 2023 that he would offer them tens of tons of grain despite Western sanctions. Vladimir Putin said that Russia was ready to replace Ukraine and supply Africa with cereals, during a Russia-Africa summit organized in Saint Petersburg. "We will be ready to supply 25,000 to 50,000 tons of cereals free of charge in the coming months to Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, the Central African Republic and Eritrea," he announced. Russia exported 60 million tonnes of grain last year, Vladimir Putin said.

Vladimir Putin, however, did not mention Sudan or Chad. Russia has suspended its participation in the agreement on grain exports to the Black Sea, considering that the conditions for its further extension were not met. In particular, Moscow is demanding guarantees on Russian exports of cereals and fertilizers, which it considers to be hindered, even if they are not directly targeted by Western sanctions taken in response to the invasion of Ukraine.

Africans could also benefit from direct financial aid for the development and technological cooperation they need. However, despite resisting Western sanctions better than expected, Russia saw its GDP fall by 2.1% in 2022 according to the World Bank and is expected to fall again by 2.5% in 2023. New investments, in advanced technology in particular, are of interest to African countries.

Russia is not in the top five exporting countries in Africa, and its commercial presence seems to rely instead on arms exports

The major Russian investment in Africa could concern the export of arms which are badly needed by certain regimes threatened by jihadist groups and armed opponents. Russia, as heir to the Soviet Union, has an undeniable asset on the African continent: that of being a major exporter of reliable and inexpensive arms. Indeed, the Soviet Union was already, by far, the main source of arms imports for Angola, Congo, Ethiopia or even Mozambique between 1960 and 1991. It is therefore in this line that Russia continues to export its Soviet-made weapons to African countries: like the USSR, it continues to be the first source of arms imports for the countries mentioned above but also for Algeria ,

An imperialist Russia ?

On the Russian side, close collaboration with the African continent offers Vladimir Putin considerable opportunities. Africa is indeed full of precious metals, oil and highly coveted raw materials. Russian interests are particularly focused on countries harboring strategic resources, such as manganese in Gabon or South Africa, diamonds in Angola and the Central African Republic, as well as uranium in Tanzania.

The Russian private sector also plays a key role in the country's foreign policy. The influence of the paramilitary group Wagner in Mali or in the Central African Republic is well known, but Russian ambitions do not stop there. The Russian company Rosneft, for example, has concluded an offshore gas exploitation contract in Mozambique.

Getting closer to Africa offers Putin the opportunity to expand his sphere of influence by forging ties with the powers that be. This approach also allows it to compete with the Chinese and American influences already established on the continent. Thus, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrov, visited the continent twice in the space of six months,
showing that despite the sanctions linked to the war in Ukraine, Russia is not totally isolated.

The President of the Comoros, Azali Assoumani, who currently holds the presidency of the African Union, also felt that Russia's demands should be listened to.

Lavrov, the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, had he not declared during a historic visit to Bamako on February 7, 2023: “The fight against terrorism remains a priority for the [countries of the Sahelo-Saharan region and the Gulf of Guinea] […] We [Russia and Mali] see the reaction of Western states to the evolution of our relations, […] and this reflects [their] neo-colonial approaches and [their ] policy of “double standards” […] [They] want to decide the fate of all the continents, […] but we think that these old metropolises forget how they exploited and invaded these territories; they must, in my opinion, understand that the world has changed”.

This return of the Russian presence should be studied in the light of its desire to deconstruct a world order deemed too “American-centric” to regain a place of choice on the international scene. Russian diplomacy uses Africa with the aim of “rebalancing” power dynamics, serving its own interests.

THAILAND TOWARDS AN IMPOSSIBLE DEMOCRACY

But Pita Limaroenrat encounters difficulties when he is elected Prime Minister of Thailand by the National Assembly. He failed to gather enough votes to be appointed by Parliament.

A Senate under the orders of the establishment

The Thai Parliament has indeed rejected, on Thursday, the candidacy of reformist MP Pita Limjaroenrat as Prime Minister. The leader of the Move Forward party, winner of the elections, did not obtain the sixty votes of senators he needed to reach the required threshold of 375 votes, despite the support of a majority coalition in the Lower House (312 deputies out of 500).

To minimize the weight of the 500 deputies elected by the people, the generals have, in fact, ensured total control of the Senate. Its 250 members are not elected but appointed by various conservative institutions. Only 13 of its 250 members supported Pita's candidacy. The senators ignored Move Forward's calls to form a government in accordance with the will of the people that would put Thailand back on the path to democracy.

Result: a second vote will take place next Wednesday, July 19, a vote in the form of a last chance for Pita to become head of government. In the event of a new setback, he has effectively indicated that he would throw in the towel.

Marching towards democracy with Pita Limjaroenrat ?

Pita Limaroenrat, whom everyone calls Pita, was born in 1981. He is a rather elegant young man who has been leading the Move forward party for several years. This pro-democracy party is the bane of the power in place and in particular of the soldiers who lock the country. The party was already dissolved for the first time in 2019 before reforming under this new name. Pita is initially a businessman from a wealthy family. He was educated in the United States.

A true idol of Thai youth, this businessman from a good family hopes to become the next Prime Minister of Thailand. He embodies the break with the military in power for a decade in Thailand. It offers a modern image of society with attractive measures such as the legalization of cannabis for recreational purposes, the end of compulsory military service or even marriage for all. Its renovation program aims to turn the page on a quasi- decade under the authority of former putschist general Prayut Chan-O-Cha, which saw fundamental freedoms shrink and the economy stagnate.

Imposing itself outside its usual urban strongholds, its young reformist formation won more than 150 parliamentary seats out of the 500 in the Assembly and established itself as the first political force in the kingdom. It also made an alliance with d ' other pro-democracy parties that have elected members in parliament.

The Move Forward Party, the pet peeve of power

Power wants to do everything to prevent him from governing. The country has nevertheless experienced a dozen successful coups since the end of the absolute monarchy in 1934.

To block his way, the electoral commission considered that there were enough elements to transmit to the Constitutional Court a file of suspicions of irregularity. Pita's party is accused of having owned shares in a television channel during the campaign, in contravention of the law. The president of the electoral commission recommended a suspension of his parliamentary functions. The deputy, who defends himself from any illegal maneuver, risks the loss of his parliamentary seat, a prison sentence and banishment from political life for 20 years.

In another case, the Constitutional Court has declared admissible the complaint of a lawyer who accuses Pita Limjaroenrat and Move Forward of wanting to "overthrow" the monarchy. Going forward is very offensive on the issue of lèse-majesté crime reform which, for one wrong word about King Rama X, continues to send Thais to jail.

In the past, legal gag proceedings have on several occasions made it possible to dismiss the intruders, whether they are former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, in exile since in Dubai, or even the former opponent Thanatorn Juangroongruangkit. In 2020, justice had dissolved the party The Future Ahead of Us, ancestor of Going Forward.

"It's not a vote on me or Move Forward but a vote to give Thailand a chance to return to normality", Pita Limjaroenrat pleaded to voters before the opening of the vote.

THE REASONS FOR THE DEADLY RAILWAY CATASTROPHE IN INDIA

The search and rescue operations for the victims are now complete on Sunday June 4, 2023 and the time has come for questions about the precise course of the events that took place on Friday evening.

"We have identified the cause of the accident and the people responsible for it," Indian Railways Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said, adding that it was "not appropriate" to release further details beforehand. the final investigation report. According to the minister, "the change that occurred during the electronic switching is at the origin of the accident", in reference to the complex computer system managing the traffic on the Indian railways to prevent the collision of trains.

Confusion reigns at this stage but The Times of India, citing the preliminary investigation report, said on Sunday that "human error" may have caused the collision between three trains, one of the worst train disasters in India's history. country. The Coromandel Express, linking Calcutta to Madras, had been given the green light to run on the main track but was rerouted due to human error on a track where there was already a freight train, according to the newspaper.

The passenger train then struck the freight convoy at a speed of around 130 km/h. Under the impact, twenty-one cars derailed and three of them were ejected onto an adjacent track, where another passenger train was traveling at the same time . Three carriages then fell onto the adjacent track, hitting the rear of an express train which was operating between Bangalore and Calcutta. It was this collision that caused the most damage, adds the Times, citing the preliminary report. The passengers were crushed, dismembered, under a shock similar to an explosion.

The tragedy unfolded near Balasore, about 200 kilometers from Bhubaneswar, the capital of the eastern Indian state of Odisha. a signaling error.

Modi's reaction

At least 288 people died in the tragedy and 900 were injured, the deadliest rail crash in nearly 30 years. But the death toll is expected to rise further, and could reach 380 dead, according to the director general of the Odisha State Fire Service, Sudhanshu Sarangi.

"No one responsible" for the accident will be spared, promised Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who went to the scene of the disaster on Saturday and met the injured in hospital. “I pray that we get out of this sad moment as soon as possible,” he told public broadcaster Doordarshan.

At this point, Friday night's train crash is India's deadliest since 1995, when two express trains collided in Firozabad, near Agra, home to the Taj Mahal, killing more than 300 people. But the deadliest in the country's history remains that of June 6, 1981 when, in the state of Bihar (east), seven wagons of a train crossing a bridge fell into the Bagmati River, causing between 800 and 1,000 dead.

New investments and technological improvements