ANTONY BLINKEN STATES BEFORE THE COUNCIL

NATIONS SECURITY THAN HUNGER

MUST NOT BE A WEAPON OF WAR

the use of hunger as a weapon of war is an unacceptable aberration which must be stopped.

With palpable determination, he seized the opportunity to level harsh criticism at Russia for its decision to withdraw from the grain export pact through the Black Sea.

“In the corridors of the Kremlin, the assertion is made that the breakdown of this agreement stems from the obstacles imposed by international sanctions, supposedly harmful to agricultural exports.

In truth, it is essential to note that these sanctions explicitly exclude foodstuffs as well as fertilizers from their effects,” Blinken asserted with ironclad firmness, before an attentive assembly.

Subsequently, the Secretary of State proceeded to shed more light on the context, revealing that shortly after Moscow distanced itself from this initiative, Russia had embarked on grain exports at prices "reaching unprecedented heights".

"Globally, the tariffs applied to cereals have registered an increase exceeding 8% throughout the world", he added, thus illustrating the impact of this decision on international markets.

Mr. Blinken made a point of stressing that, despite the absence of such an initiative, which, according to general opinion, "should never have been necessary", it nevertheless generated "tangible and concrete results".

"The shipments undertaken have played a significant role in reducing world food prices by around a quarter, for the benefit of all, since the intervention in question", he explained with conviction.

Last July, the Russian authorities announced the termination of the grain export agreement, citing shortcomings on the side of kyiv.

It should be recalled that this agreement was born a year ago, in the Turkish city of Istanbul, under the joint mediation of the Turkish authorities and the United Nations.

These eloquently articulated remarks by Antony Blinken highlight the categorical imperative to outlaw any manipulation of hunger for warlike ends, while exposing the latent tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the economic implications for the global scale generated by such approaches.

The urgency of effective diplomacy and peaceful solutions is reinforced by this advocacy, with a view to preserving international stability and security.

JAPAN PREPARES TO DISCHARGE WATER FROM FUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR POWER PLANT INTO OCEAN

the discharge of these waters into the ocean!

According to information from government sources, this move could take shape between the end of August and the beginning of September, following a trilateral summit involving the United States and South Korea.

Although the exact date of this launch remains to be established, the Japanese authorities maintain their commitment to the announced period, located between spring and summer of this year.

At a press conference, Hirokazu Matsuno, the government spokesperson, stressed that the decision to release the treated water will be taken once all the safety measures have been thoroughly validated.

He also hinted that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida could play a crucial role in this process, hinting at the start of the operation following his return from the trilateral summit scheduled for August 18 at Camp David, a presidential residence. close to Washington.

In an effort to assuage the legitimate concerns of fishermen and local stakeholders, the government has taken initiatives to explain in detail the safety protocols that will be applied. Matsuno assured:

"We have passed on to local fishermen and businesses all the safety guarantees related to this process.

In order to address your concerns and needs, we will continue our efforts to ensure your safety and your continued presence at work."

A concern for transparency also informs this approach, with Japan's commitment to explain the decision to discharge the treated water in a way that is both scientific and understandable.

The government spokesperson affirmed that this communication would be based on "scientific foundations and exemplary transparency", thus demonstrating the importance given to gaining public trust.

Japan's announcement comes after the support expressed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) last July, which deemed the plan drawn up by the Japanese government for the dumping of treated water in the sea.

The current stages of contaminated water treatment, carried out through the ALPS system, have succeeded in eliminating most of the radioactive elements, with the exception of tritium. This water is then stored in barrels before being released into the ocean.

Faced with increasing constraints on the storage space available at the plant site, the Japanese government and Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO), the plant's operating company, took the pragmatic decision to resort to dumping in the ocean. .

This approach, although controversial, is justified by the need to safely manage the growing volume of treated water while minimizing environmental risks.

In sum, Japan's imminent approach to dump treated water from Fukushima into the ocean is sparking a complex debate about issues of safety, transparency and sustainability.

As Japanese authorities work to put in place science-based and transparent measures to manage this ongoing nuclear crisis, preserving the future of the region and its ecosystems remains at the heart of global concerns.

THE AFFIRMED RETURN OF RUSSIA TO

THE AFRICAN CONTINENT AT THE SUMMIT

FROM SAINT-PETERSBURG

This year, Russia intends to strengthen ties with the continent, by implementing more specific action plans. Round tables are planned, on subjects ranging from health to logistics, including the question of fertilizers and even nuclear energy.

"To African problems there must be African answers",

For African countries, a rapprochement with Moscow would make it possible to no longer be under Western and Chinese influence in the fields of economy and diplomacy. As such, Vladimir Putin's well-constructed strategy is working: "There must be African responses to African problems", declared the Russian Head of State on 24 July.

s. Geopolitics is also influenced by the war in Ukraine. After the end of the cereal agreement, a source of concern for the continent, the Kremlin wants to reassure by ensuring that it takes over.

Russian President Vladimir Putin effectively told African leaders on Thursday, July 27, 2023 that he would offer them tens of tons of grain despite Western sanctions. Vladimir Putin said that Russia was ready to replace Ukraine and supply Africa with cereals, during a Russia-Africa summit organized in Saint Petersburg. "We will be ready to supply 25,000 to 50,000 tons of cereals free of charge in the coming months to Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, the Central African Republic and Eritrea," he announced. Russia exported 60 million tonnes of grain last year, Vladimir Putin said.

Vladimir Putin, however, did not mention Sudan or Chad. Russia has suspended its participation in the agreement on grain exports to the Black Sea, considering that the conditions for its further extension were not met. In particular, Moscow is demanding guarantees on Russian exports of cereals and fertilizers, which it considers to be hindered, even if they are not directly targeted by Western sanctions taken in response to the invasion of Ukraine.

Africans could also benefit from direct financial aid for the development and technological cooperation they need. However, despite resisting Western sanctions better than expected, Russia saw its GDP fall by 2.1% in 2022 according to the World Bank and is expected to fall again by 2.5% in 2023. New investments, in advanced technology in particular, are of interest to African countries.

Russia is not in the top five exporting countries in Africa, and its commercial presence seems to rely instead on arms exports

The major Russian investment in Africa could concern the export of arms which are badly needed by certain regimes threatened by jihadist groups and armed opponents. Russia, as heir to the Soviet Union, has an undeniable asset on the African continent: that of being a major exporter of reliable and inexpensive arms. Indeed, the Soviet Union was already, by far, the main source of arms imports for Angola, Congo, Ethiopia or even Mozambique between 1960 and 1991. It is therefore in this line that Russia continues to export its Soviet-made weapons to African countries: like the USSR, it continues to be the first source of arms imports for the countries mentioned above but also for Algeria ,

An imperialist Russia ?

On the Russian side, close collaboration with the African continent offers Vladimir Putin considerable opportunities. Africa is indeed full of precious metals, oil and highly coveted raw materials. Russian interests are particularly focused on countries harboring strategic resources, such as manganese in Gabon or South Africa, diamonds in Angola and the Central African Republic, as well as uranium in Tanzania.

The Russian private sector also plays a key role in the country's foreign policy. The influence of the paramilitary group Wagner in Mali or in the Central African Republic is well known, but Russian ambitions do not stop there. The Russian company Rosneft, for example, has concluded an offshore gas exploitation contract in Mozambique.

Getting closer to Africa offers Putin the opportunity to expand his sphere of influence by forging ties with the powers that be. This approach also allows it to compete with the Chinese and American influences already established on the continent. Thus, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrov, visited the continent twice in the space of six months,
showing that despite the sanctions linked to the war in Ukraine, Russia is not totally isolated.

The President of the Comoros, Azali Assoumani, who currently holds the presidency of the African Union, also felt that Russia's demands should be listened to.

Lavrov, the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, had he not declared during a historic visit to Bamako on February 7, 2023: “The fight against terrorism remains a priority for the [countries of the Sahelo-Saharan region and the Gulf of Guinea] […] We [Russia and Mali] see the reaction of Western states to the evolution of our relations, […] and this reflects [their] neo-colonial approaches and [their ] policy of “double standards” […] [They] want to decide the fate of all the continents, […] but we think that these old metropolises forget how they exploited and invaded these territories; they must, in my opinion, understand that the world has changed”.

This return of the Russian presence should be studied in the light of its desire to deconstruct a world order deemed too “American-centric” to regain a place of choice on the international scene. Russian diplomacy uses Africa with the aim of “rebalancing” power dynamics, serving its own interests.

THAILAND TOWARDS AN IMPOSSIBLE DEMOCRACY

But Pita Limaroenrat encounters difficulties when he is elected Prime Minister of Thailand by the National Assembly. He failed to gather enough votes to be appointed by Parliament.

A Senate under the orders of the establishment

The Thai Parliament has indeed rejected, on Thursday, the candidacy of reformist MP Pita Limjaroenrat as Prime Minister. The leader of the Move Forward party, winner of the elections, did not obtain the sixty votes of senators he needed to reach the required threshold of 375 votes, despite the support of a majority coalition in the Lower House (312 deputies out of 500).

To minimize the weight of the 500 deputies elected by the people, the generals have, in fact, ensured total control of the Senate. Its 250 members are not elected but appointed by various conservative institutions. Only 13 of its 250 members supported Pita's candidacy. The senators ignored Move Forward's calls to form a government in accordance with the will of the people that would put Thailand back on the path to democracy.

Result: a second vote will take place next Wednesday, July 19, a vote in the form of a last chance for Pita to become head of government. In the event of a new setback, he has effectively indicated that he would throw in the towel.

Marching towards democracy with Pita Limjaroenrat ?

Pita Limaroenrat, whom everyone calls Pita, was born in 1981. He is a rather elegant young man who has been leading the Move forward party for several years. This pro-democracy party is the bane of the power in place and in particular of the soldiers who lock the country. The party was already dissolved for the first time in 2019 before reforming under this new name. Pita is initially a businessman from a wealthy family. He was educated in the United States.

A true idol of Thai youth, this businessman from a good family hopes to become the next Prime Minister of Thailand. He embodies the break with the military in power for a decade in Thailand. It offers a modern image of society with attractive measures such as the legalization of cannabis for recreational purposes, the end of compulsory military service or even marriage for all. Its renovation program aims to turn the page on a quasi- decade under the authority of former putschist general Prayut Chan-O-Cha, which saw fundamental freedoms shrink and the economy stagnate.

Imposing itself outside its usual urban strongholds, its young reformist formation won more than 150 parliamentary seats out of the 500 in the Assembly and established itself as the first political force in the kingdom. It also made an alliance with d ' other pro-democracy parties that have elected members in parliament.

The Move Forward Party, the pet peeve of power

Power wants to do everything to prevent him from governing. The country has nevertheless experienced a dozen successful coups since the end of the absolute monarchy in 1934.

To block his way, the electoral commission considered that there were enough elements to transmit to the Constitutional Court a file of suspicions of irregularity. Pita's party is accused of having owned shares in a television channel during the campaign, in contravention of the law. The president of the electoral commission recommended a suspension of his parliamentary functions. The deputy, who defends himself from any illegal maneuver, risks the loss of his parliamentary seat, a prison sentence and banishment from political life for 20 years.

In another case, the Constitutional Court has declared admissible the complaint of a lawyer who accuses Pita Limjaroenrat and Move Forward of wanting to "overthrow" the monarchy. Going forward is very offensive on the issue of lèse-majesté crime reform which, for one wrong word about King Rama X, continues to send Thais to jail.

In the past, legal gag proceedings have on several occasions made it possible to dismiss the intruders, whether they are former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, in exile since in Dubai, or even the former opponent Thanatorn Juangroongruangkit. In 2020, justice had dissolved the party The Future Ahead of Us, ancestor of Going Forward.

"It's not a vote on me or Move Forward but a vote to give Thailand a chance to return to normality", Pita Limjaroenrat pleaded to voters before the opening of the vote.

THE REASONS FOR THE DEADLY RAILWAY CATASTROPHE IN INDIA

The search and rescue operations for the victims are now complete on Sunday June 4, 2023 and the time has come for questions about the precise course of the events that took place on Friday evening.

"We have identified the cause of the accident and the people responsible for it," Indian Railways Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said, adding that it was "not appropriate" to release further details beforehand. the final investigation report. According to the minister, "the change that occurred during the electronic switching is at the origin of the accident", in reference to the complex computer system managing the traffic on the Indian railways to prevent the collision of trains.

Confusion reigns at this stage but The Times of India, citing the preliminary investigation report, said on Sunday that "human error" may have caused the collision between three trains, one of the worst train disasters in India's history. country. The Coromandel Express, linking Calcutta to Madras, had been given the green light to run on the main track but was rerouted due to human error on a track where there was already a freight train, according to the newspaper.

The passenger train then struck the freight convoy at a speed of around 130 km/h. Under the impact, twenty-one cars derailed and three of them were ejected onto an adjacent track, where another passenger train was traveling at the same time . Three carriages then fell onto the adjacent track, hitting the rear of an express train which was operating between Bangalore and Calcutta. It was this collision that caused the most damage, adds the Times, citing the preliminary report. The passengers were crushed, dismembered, under a shock similar to an explosion.

The tragedy unfolded near Balasore, about 200 kilometers from Bhubaneswar, the capital of the eastern Indian state of Odisha. a signaling error.

Modi's reaction

At least 288 people died in the tragedy and 900 were injured, the deadliest rail crash in nearly 30 years. But the death toll is expected to rise further, and could reach 380 dead, according to the director general of the Odisha State Fire Service, Sudhanshu Sarangi.

"No one responsible" for the accident will be spared, promised Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who went to the scene of the disaster on Saturday and met the injured in hospital. “I pray that we get out of this sad moment as soon as possible,” he told public broadcaster Doordarshan.

At this point, Friday night's train crash is India's deadliest since 1995, when two express trains collided in Firozabad, near Agra, home to the Taj Mahal, killing more than 300 people. But the deadliest in the country's history remains that of June 6, 1981 when, in the state of Bihar (east), seven wagons of a train crossing a bridge fell into the Bagmati River, causing between 800 and 1,000 dead.

New investments and technological improvements

India has seen a number of deadly train accidents, but safety has improved in recent years thanks to new investments and technological improvements. Indeed, the investment plan that has been selected for between now and 2030, is 715 billion dollars that are invested in rail infrastructure, both for passengers and freight trains.

But one of India's problems is that it has chosen to maintain rail transport for heavy, large goods. And so there's a kind of telescoping that's happening between the surging passenger traffic and freight traffic.

And the accident of June 2 is precisely linked to the fact that you have a freight train - we are in the eastern region of India, where there are all the coal mines, iron mines, etc. - which was at shutdown, and it was probably not detected that it was shut down quickly enough by the computer system.

PAKISTAN THE SPECTER OF IGNITION

In several cities, violent clashes pitted sympathizers of his party, Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (Pakistan Justice Movement, PTI, of Islamo-nationalist tendency) and the security forces.

On May 12, the politician was released following a Supreme Court decision, but his legal troubles are not over, since he still has to appear for the charges against him.

This episode of protest, unprecedented in its intensity, is part of the long standoff between the PTI and the coalition gathered around the current Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, while the army, in this country of 230 million inhabitants, continues to play a leading role.

An unexpected explosion

The scale and virulence of the mobilizations seem to have taken the government and the army by surprise, which for the first time was directly targeted by the protesters. This effect of surprise is due in particular to an erroneous perception of Imran Khan's social base: according to a cliché widely spread among their opponents and in government circles, the supporters of the PTI are essentially "keyboard activists" confining their commitment to the networks social.

These clichés have been severely contradicted by the composition of the rioting crowds of the last few days, among which were found highly motivated women as well as businessmen and young people from working-class backgrounds. In this regard, it should be noted that 60% of the population of Pakistan is between 18 and 35 years old. This generation has grown up in a world where the jihadist threat has lost its existential character and where the central role of the army is no longer self-evident.

The ability of Imran Khan and his party to unite anger and provide meaning and direction to vastly different sections of the population has been minimized by authorities, both civilian and military.

However, this is not the first time that the PTI has demonstrated its mobilization capacities: in 2014, the party organized a "freedom march" which, for four months, drained thousands of people from Lahore to Islamabad.

A society crossed by a multitude of social, ethnic and religious divisions

The social conflicts that agitate Pakistan are also measured through the anti-militarist movements that have appeared in recent years in the country's tribal marches, particularly in Balochistan, and in the Pashtun regions, where the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (Pashtun Protection Movement - PTM) succeeded in mobilizing massively to denounce the abuses committed by the security forces in the context of anti-terrorist operations, despite fierce repression.

In recent years, Sindhi nationalist groups, which are more marked on the left, have also been in the news, in particular by attacking Chinese interests. But it is above all in Balochistan, on the border with Iran, that ethnic nationalism poses the greatest challenge to the State and to a unitary conception of the nation that would be satisfied with Islam as a reference. It is in this region, forbidden to foreign observers, that the Pakistani army and pro-government militias show the most uninhibited violence.

Added to this are religious divisions, opposing Sunnis and Shiites (around 20% of the Muslim population, which itself constitutes 96% of the population) but also different Sunni religious currents, in particular the Barelwis, followers of a devotional with Sufi influences, and the Deobandi, belonging to a reformed current which broke away from popular Islam through its rigor and scripturalism.

Finally, Pakistani society is deeply unequal. In Punjab and Karachi – two regions historically rooted in the Indian world – caste hierarchies remain very significant. In Pashtun countries or in Balochistan, society remains dominated by notables or tribal chiefs, while in rural Sindh economic and political power is concentrated in the hands of large landowners. In this context of superimposed social hierarchies, the theme of “people against the establishment”, which the PTI has taken up, is highly mobilizing.

The great strength of the PTI is to have succeeded in overcoming these structural divisions by articulating an anti-system discourse transcending the divisions of caste, class and ethnicity, while promoting an Islamo-nationalism which, if it appears to exclude minorities religions (Hindus, Christians, Ahmadis), brings together the entire Muslim population.

While broadly unifying, Imran Khan has however strongly polarized Pakistani society. He divided the army, some of whose officers seem to support him, but also the families, where the PTI and its leader arouse strongly contrasting opinions. It is also these divisions that explain the depth of the current crisis, which crosses the institutions rather than opposing them head-on.

A disunited ruling coalition

There is only a front unity in the current ruling Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) coalition.

The political dynasties at the head of the Pakistan Peoples Party (the Bhutto-Zardari) and the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (the Sharif) are historical rivals, who have not stopped vying for power since the end of the regime. Zia-ul-Haq military in 1988.

They do, however, share one objective: to consolidate democratic institutions in order to strengthen their autonomy in the face of military power, even if they often bow down to the force of the army, out of weakness or opportunism. The objective of the PTI and its leader is significantly different: it is rather for them to submit all the institutions, including the army, by forcing them to pledge allegiance to the leader of the nation.

Imran Khan fights neither for democracy nor against the military institution. He is in a very personal balance of power with the army chief, who in some ways recalls Zulfikar Ali Bhutto's attempt in the 1970s to monopolize power around himself.

The weight of the army

The army retains a central role in all areas of activity. There are retired generals at the head of many institutions, from the National Accountability Bureau (the anti-corruption agency behind the arrest of Imran Khan on May 9) to the management bodies of the universities. Through its foundations, the army controls whole sections of the economy. It is also one of the first landowners in the country, both in rural areas (where deserving officers are allocated land at the end of their careers) and in large cities (where it manages numerous real estate projects).

At the political level, since the end of the 2000s, the military has been careful not to put themselves on the front line and prefer to control affairs behind the scenes. This is what led them to support the accession to power of Imran Khan, after the 2018 elections. It was then for the army to contain the PPP and the PMLN, which for it represented a threat, with their desire to strengthen the autonomy of civil power and democratic institutions at the expense of military power.

Over the following years, a hybrid regime was set up, presenting a democratic facade but in reality controlled by the military. However, Imran Khan was quick to want to become independent from his former bosses, in particular by trying to place at the head of the army and its powerful intelligence services generals reputed to be close to him.

This is what caused his fall, following a motion of no confidence, in April 2022 – an impeachment in which the leadership of the PTI saw a plot hatched by the Pakistani army and the United States. The conflict has escalated further following the recent arrest of Khan, for which he publicly blamed the army chief, General Asim Munir.

For the leader of the PTI, however, it is less a question of launching a process of demilitarization of the country than of settling scores and winning a showdown with the only man likely to stand up to him. Even if it engages the future of civil-military relations, it is more a conflict of people than of institutions.

What scenarios can we consider ?

The first scenario is that of a rise in tensions between the PTI and the army. Playing the card of polarization and agitation, Imran Khan could call his supporters to resistance, betting on the support of part of the army or even on a mutiny which would push General Munir towards the exit. This scenario is very unlikely. If the army seems more divided than ever, it remains united behind its leader for the moment.

A second scenario is that of a return to power by Imran Khan, following the elections currently scheduled for October 2023. army leaders and opponents of the PTI resign themselves to the return of Khan, one of whose first objectives will be to punish and imprison his opponents.

The last scenario, the most probable in the short term, is that of an authoritarian consolidation at the initiative and for the benefit of the army. This seems determined to exploit the violent mobilizations of the last few weeks to bring the PTI to heel. Thousands of party supporters have been arrested in recent days and could be tried in military courts. Many of the party leaders are also behind bars. This repressive strategy has the support of the government of Shahbaz Sharif which, not without cynicism, exploits the anger of the army to settle its own accounts with the PTI. Some members of the ruling coalition would even like to take advantage of the events of recent days to ban their main rival, in order to prevent him from running in the next elections.

In any case, democracy risks not emerging from this ordeal...

Article by Laurent Gayer, CNRS research director at CERI-Sciences Po, published in The Conversation.

SURPRISE VICTORY OF THE PRO-DEMOCRACY PARTY

IN THAILAND AGAINST THE MILITARY JUNTA

For nine years, the country had been ruled by Prayuth Chan-ocha, who came to power after a military coup.

A “tradition” (Thailand has experienced a coup every seven years on average since 1932) that the electorate supports less and less. He therefore preferred the Move Forward and Pheu Thai parties to the royalists and the military.

Marching towards democracy with Pita Limjaroenrat ?

The hope of seeing the country give birth to a democracy now has a name: Pita Limjaroenrat. This leader of the opposition, claimed this Monday, May 15 the victory of his center left party Move Forward, en route to form a government coalition to succeed the generals in power for almost ten years.

A true idol of Thai youth, this businessman from a good family hopes to become the next Prime Minister of Thailand. He embodies the break with the military in power for a decade in Thailand.

“It is clear that the Thai people have expressed their desire to put the Move Forward Party in the lead. We can therefore manage the formation of the future government,” insisted the charismatic leader, aged only 42. With a confident posture and a determined gaze, Pita Limjaroenrat said he was "ready to become the next Prime Minister". He pleaded on Monday for a "smooth transition" at the head of the government.

Imposing itself outside its usual urban strongholds, its young reformist formation won more than 150 parliamentary seats out of the 500 in the Assembly and established itself as the leading political force in the kingdom.

A Senate under orders

Having to negotiate within the framework of constitutional rules distorted by the military, who led the 2014 coup, Khun Pita, as his supporters call him, must succeed, in the coming weeks, in forming a large majority made up of at least 376 parliamentarians. To minimize the weight of the 500 deputies elected by the people, the generals have, in fact, ensured total control of the Senate. Its 250 members are not elected but appointed by various conservative institutions.

To be appointed Prime Minister, the leader of Move Forward must therefore convince 376 deputies to join his executive. This Monday evening, he assured that he was already certain to rally at least 309 elected officials, from six parties. In particular, he has the support of Pheu Thai, the populist party, led by the family of billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra, which had so far won all the legislative elections since 2001, and should, this time, have just over 140 elected.

Gag procedures

But nothing is won. Because going forward is very offensive on the issue of the reform of the crime of lèse-majesté which, for a wrong word on King Rama X, continues to send Thais to prison. However, this is not the position of its future coalition partners in a country where the monarchy divides.

We cannot exclude a dirty trick from the military either. Pita's supporters fear a procedure for ineligibility on the pretext, however firmly denied, that he is a shareholder in a media company, which the electoral code prohibits.

In the past, legal gag proceedings have on several occasions made it possible to dismiss the intruders, whether they are former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, in exile since in Dubai, or even the former opponent Thanatorn Juangroongruangkit. In 2020, justice had dissolved the party The Future Ahead of Us, ancestor of Going Forward.

"It's a spectacular challenge for the power in place in the Kingdom", considers for his part the correspondent of the Times who nevertheless judges, like the whole of the international press, that the Thai generals will not be so easily ousted from the power, and "that there is no guarantee that Pita can become Prime Minister", despite his electoral victory.

Pita's victory "marks the culmination of the protest movement that began in 2020, with massive pro-democracy protests, when thousands of youth and student-led people challenged the military-linked government, by demanding both the resignation of the Prime Minister and the reform of the monarchy", underlines the correspondent of El Pais.

WHY ARE TAIWAN AND UKRAINE

AT THE CENTER OF G7 DEBATES ?

East Asia under the radar

The diplomatic agenda of the past few days has indeed been marked by East Asia with the launch by North Korea on Thursday of what it claimed was a "new type" of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at solid fuel. Last weekend, China conducted military maneuvers around Taiwan, simulating attacks and a blockade of the island it considers part of its territory.

According to American intelligence, Beijing is accelerating the development of its strategic means in order to have, by 2027, an army likely to deter the United States in the event of an invasion of Taiwan.

The G7 has regularly warned Beijing against any attempt to forcefully change the status quo regarding Taiwan and some of its members are once again sounding the alarm. "We have an interest in seeing peace and stability reign in the Taiwan Strait," European Foreign Minister Josep Borrell told reporters on Sunday, speaking by videoconference after testing positive for Covid-19 this week. week. "Our position is the one China policy, we respect it and we will continue to support it, but we want to defuse tensions and any change by force will be unacceptable," he added.

“Keep freedom of maneuver”

The wording of the joint communiqué of the group of seven main industrialized countries (Germany, Canada, United States, France, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom) will be scrutinized after recent remarks by French President Emmanuel Macron. Returning from a visit to China, he said Europe should not be caught up in "crises that are not (his) own", irritating allies anxious not to undermine relations with Washington.

While French President Emmanuel Macron's remarks on the need for Europe's strategic autonomy from the United States have somewhat shaken Europe and across the Atlantic, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, who was in Beijing in weekend, meanwhile said a military escalation in the Taiwan Strait would be a worst-case scenario for the whole world.

Global economic issues around Taiwan

A conflict between China and Taiwan would indeed have major implications for the global economy, particularly regarding the dominance of the US dollar. China is seeking to expand its influence in the Western Pacific, which could challenge the role of the US Navy as a guarantor of sea lanes and, by extension, the dominant position of the dollar. Additionally, the Taiwan Strait is a vital trade route, with nearly 90% of the world's largest ships by tonnage passing through it.

A conflict or blockade in the region could cause global economic chaos. Taiwan is a key player in the global production of semiconductors, and a conflict in the region could threaten the supply of these critical components for many tech industries. If Taiwan's semiconductor industry falls under the control of the Chinese Communist Party, it could have devastating consequences for Western economies that depend on these components for their own industries and technology products.

Political and military alliances could also be strained in the event of a conflict between China and Taiwan. Britain, the United States, Australia and other countries in the region could be drawn into the conflict due to their close ties and alliances. This could create additional tensions between the nations and worsen the already volatile situation.

For Paul Nadeau, professor of political science at the Japanese campus of the American Temple University, Emmanuel Macron's statements betray a reality: "Each member (of the G7) wishes to maintain freedom of maneuver in the way in which he manages his relations with China", politically and commercially. Consensus will undoubtedly be easier to obtain on Ukraine, the occasion for the Japanese host to underline his certainty that the Russian invasion only accentuates the need to redouble our vigilance in Asia.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, whose government at the end of 2022 approved a major revision of its defense doctrine in the face of the rise of Chinese power, has repeatedly warned that "Asia could be the Ukraine of tomorrow".

INDIA THE MOST POPULAR NATION IN THE WORLD ?

India is now the most populous country on the planet and will remain so at least until the end of the century, with 1.417 billion inhabitants, against 1.412 billion for China. The next on the podium of world demography, the United States with 338 million individuals, or Indonesia (275 million) and Pakistan (234 million) are barely larger than the state of Bihar, in the northern India, the most populous in the country.

China and India both have over 1.4 billion people and together they make up more than a third of the world's 8 billion people. India's population has grown by more than 1 billion people since independence in 1947 and will continue to grow until 2060, to reach 1.7 billion, even as the country began its demographic transition in the 1980s.

Its synthetic fertility index (2 children per woman) is now slightly below the renewal threshold (2.1 children per woman). The evolution is very slow because India has not resorted, unlike China, to a coercive policy. The country would not have supported it, after the trauma of the forced sterilization campaign imposed by Indira Gandhi and her son Sanjay during the state of emergency in 1976.

China has an aging population with stagnant growth even after the government seven years ago backed out of a one-child policy, and just two years ago said couples could have three children.

India has a much younger population, a higher fertility rate and has seen a decline in infant mortality over the past three decades.

The social and economic consequences are significant. In India, this means an increase in the workforce and growth that stimulates economic activity. In China, that means fewer working-age adults able to support an aging population.

Once a country reaches low fertility, it is often difficult to recapture population growth, even with changes in government policy to encourage more births, pointed out Toshiko Kaneda, technical director of population research at Population Reference Bureau (PRB) in Washington.

“Psychologically, it will be difficult for China, especially given the rivalry in other areas between the two countries, raised Stuart Gietel-Basten. It is a great moment in the history of humanity that the relay move on to India.”

A situation which, however, places India in front of multiple challenges.

WHY A HIGH LEVEL OF NUCLEAR ACTIVITY DETECTED IN NORTH KOREA ?

Satellite images taken between March 3 and March 17 suggest construction of a light-water reactor at the Yongbyon site is 'close to completion', according to US-based organization 38 North -United.

According to these same images, the construction of a building has begun, while water discharges from the cooling system have been detected, suggesting that the reactor is about to "be operational", details the report of the group of reflection.

A five-megawatt reactor at Yongbyon also continues to operate, and new construction has begun around the site's uranium enrichment plant, likely to increase its capacity.

"These developments appear to reflect Kim Jong Un's recent directive to increase the production of fissile material to bolster his nuclear arsenal," 38 North analyzed.

State media on Tuesday showed North Korea's No. 1, who has called for increased production of "military nuclear material" in order to "exponentially" increase the production of nuclear weapons, inspecting a row of smaller warheads that appear to be tactical nuclear warheads.

For their part, Seoul and Washington have been warning of a new North Korean nuclear test since the beginning of 2022.

The North Korean army has increased its military exercises in recent weeks

While the two allied countries have strengthened their joint military exercises, Pyongyang is still carrying out missile launches and tests, while accusing Seoul of being at the origin of the deterioration of regional security.

The official KCNA news agency on Sunday denounced the series of joint exercises conducted by Washington and Seoul, warning of North Korea's "nuclear attack capability".

The North Korean army, which has increased its military exercises in recent weeks, said on Tuesday it had carried out a second test of what it presented as an "underwater nuclear attack drone".

While Pyongyang has called its status as a nuclear power in 2022 "irreversible", the North Korean leader ordered his army this month to step up military maneuvers for "real war".

WHY THE OPPONENT RAHUL GANDHI

LOSE SEAT IN INDIAN PARLIAMENT ?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ruling BJP has just gotten rid of its main opponent for a sentence uttered four years ago. The opposition is rebelling against this new milestone in the authoritarianism of the Hindu nationalists in power, one year before the elections.

Stripped of his seat as a Member of Parliament of India

He risked overshadowing Narendra Modi as the national elections scheduled for 2024 approach: Rahul Gandhi, the charismatic leader of the Congress Party has just been stripped of his seat as a deputy in the lower house of the Indian Parliament, following a court ruling last week. Sentenced to two years in prison for defaming Prime Minister Modi for remarks made during the last election campaign, the heir to the Gandhi family could find himself de facto excluded from the race, while he embodies the main hopes of the opposition.

Now his two-year prison sentence in a defamation case and his removal from parliament on Friday could prompt his party and allies to step up their opposition to the BJP government, a year before the next general election.

Thursday's sentencing came just two months after Gandhi, 52, completed a 4,000km march across the country, from the southern tip of India to Kashmir in the Himalayas, in an attempt to revive his party and to improve its image, in what he called a Bharat Jodo Yatra, or march for the unification of India.

Gandhi's jail sentence has been suspended for 30 days, allowing him to appeal to a higher court, but he will also be barred from participating in the next general election if he does not win the suspension or reversal of his conviction.

The Gandhi dynasty

His central role in opposition politics stems from the fact that his party has ruled India for 54 of the 75 years since independence from Britain, and that his father, grandmother and great-grandfather served as prime ministers for more than 37 of those 54 years.

The Congress was the largest national political party in the country of 1.4 billion people, until it was overtaken by the BJP in 2014.

Though now a shadow of their former selves, the Gandhi family – which includes Sonia, Rahul's Italian-born mother and former party leader, and her sister Priyanka – still dominate Congress with a loyal following. fierce.

Even though Congress weakened in 2019, winning less than 10% of the lower house's 545 seats, it won nearly 20% of the vote - the most votes for an opposition group - compared to 38% for the BJP. Congress is the ruling party or the main opposition in half a dozen major states.

It is this powerful lineage and legacy that Modi and his party seek to attack when they argue that dynastic politics has no place in a democracy.

An unserious politician?

Gandhi got into politics and was first elected to parliament in 2004 in the town of Amethi, where his family lives, in the northern heartland state of Uttar Pradesh.

He repeated that victory in 2009 and 2014, but suffered a crushing setback in 2019 when he lost his seat. However, he had also contested a seat in the state of Kerala and won, which allowed him to return to Parliament.

Gandhi's attendance at Parliament was well below average. His frequent absences from the hemicycle and the country attracted media attention and the BJP accused him of being an "unserious" politician.

Outside parliament, he often reminded his supporters of his family's commitment and sacrifices, referring to the assassination of his grandmother, Indira Gandhi, then prime minister, and his father, Rajiv Gandhi, former prime minister. .

On Thursday, after his sentencing, he simply tweeted a few words in Hindi from the leader of the freedom movement, Mahatma Gandhi, who is not related to him.

"My religion is based on truth and non-violence. Truth is my God, non-violence the means to it. - Mahatma Gandhi".

Single at 52, Gandhi is known to be adept at fitness and martial arts and was seen cycling in New Delhi accompanied by security men. According to Neelanjan Sircar, a visiting fellow at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi, his conviction and disqualification from parliament is now "a matter of pass or fail" for him.

Will he be able to make the argument that "I am the target of a government that does not necessarily represent the interests of all Indians", or will he be seen as someone who is not a competent politician and who has therefore been outclassed by the BJP,” Mr Sircar said.

Authoritarian drift of Narendra Modi

One year from the next elections, the authoritarian drift of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is confirmed, with the sidelining of his main opponent Rahul Gandhi.

The tribunal which condemned Rahul Gandhi is indeed in the stronghold of Narandra Modi, the state of Gujarat, a region which the Prime Minister has made the laboratory of his policy and where he still pulls all the strings. However, this coup de force may come as a surprise.

Modi does not necessarily have so much to fear from his opponent. As he completes his second term, his popularity rating is still high and many are predicting another victory for him in 2024.

In the opposite camp, the opposition seems too divided to catch up. The Congress, this historic party that was once so powerful, no longer has the same ability to rally. This is why Rahul Gandhi has embarked in recent months on a great march across the country, over 3500 km, to meet the Indians. A reference to Gandhi's famous salt march, the starting point of Indian independence in the 1930s. But even if this march, which ended at the end of January, caused a lot of talk, nothing says for the moment that Congress will succeed in federating the opposition in the coming year, a sin equa non condition for hoping to overthrow the power in place.

Unless Narendra Modi finds himself splashed by the financial scandal of the moment, the "Adani scandal" named after one of the richest men on the planet, the Indian businessman Gautam Adani. At the head of one of the main conglomerates in the country, this multi-billionaire who made his fortune in raw materials has found himself at the heart of a huge fraud case for several weeks. He would have built a large-scale fraud scheme, with the blessing of the authorities. However, it is a close friend of Prime Minister Modi. The markets that have been allocated to it raise questions. The fact that he funds the BJP as well. Everything is in place for this scandal to go back to the head of government. The opposition has therefore stepped up to the plate, with Rahul Gandhi in the front line.

Yet observers make the observation: this scandal does not seem to weaken Modi for the moment, Indian public opinion is very little interested in it. The stranglehold of the BJP on the media is probably not for nothing

Since coming to power, Narendra Modi's party has tightened its grip on all sectors of society – the press, justice, the economy.

THE RUSSO-CHINESE AXIS BETWEEN

IN A "NEW ERA"

WITH XI JINPING'S VISIT TO THE KREMLIN

An alternative to a now hostile Europe, the People's Republic of China (PRC) is, for Russia, much more than a support of circumstance. It is a real ally in international forums and on world markets to counter Western influence in general and American influence in particular.

Against the transatlantic relationship, a Eurasian axis

The PRC's support for Russia is far from temporary. The two countries have continued to develop their exchanges and cooperation over the past two decades. After having, in 1994, resolved their border disputes stemming from the Soviet period, they concluded, in 2001, a bilateral strategic partnership which materialized on several levels.

Trade has grown steadily despite the economic crises (2008, 2014, 2021). They even reached the level of 190 billion dollars in 2022, a record, and an increase of 30% compared to 2021.

The PRC has since 2010 become Russia's second largest trading partner, behind the European Union as a whole, but ahead of all EU countries taken individually. Supply of energy, minerals and defense equipment on the Russian side, export of machine tools, pharmaceutical products and electronic components on the Chinese side: the complementarities were rapidly reinforced by the establishment of financial exchanges in rubles and yuan and of a development bank within the BRICS.

The Siberian Force pipeline, launched in 2014 and inaugurated in 2019, connects Siberia to northeast China. It will soon be reinforced by Siberian Force 2. These infrastructures give Russia an alternative outlet to the EU, which is engaged in a strategy of weaning off Russian hydrocarbons. They also offer the PRC a low-cost energy supplier at a time when the United States has regained a leading position in world energy markets. As a symbol of this growing economic integration, the Russian gas giant Gazprom announced on Tuesday that it had delivered a “record” quantity of gas the day before via the cross-border Siberian Force gas pipeline. Putin claimed the deal was "done" between China and Russia on the Siberian Force 2 gas pipeline project.

On Tuesday afternoon, Putin told Xi that Russia can meet China's "growing demand" for energy, while Russian hydrocarbons are sanctioned in the West. According to him, the goal is to deliver to China at least 98 billion cubic meters of Russian gas and 100 million tonnes of Russian LNG by 2030, even as Russia cuts its crude production by 500,000 barrels per day until the end of June.

"Russian-Chinese cooperation has truly unlimited possibilities and prospects," exclaimed Vladimir Putin on Tuesday evening during a state dinner, hailing the "special nature of Russian-Chinese relations".

The United States and NATO targeted

This partnership is largely cemented by the contestation of the West on the international scene. Long before Xi Jiping came to power in 2013 and before Russia's break with the West in 2014, the two former empires were already questioning the international action of the United States in particular and Westerners in general: at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) as everywhere in the world, Chinese and Russian diplomats have mutually supported each other in criticizing NATO's interventions abroad (Serbia, Afghanistan), in challenging liberal democratic regimes and to denounce the "double standards" of a West that violates the rules it intends to impose on other international actors.

At the UNSC, the right of veto has been used extensively by Russia (29 times) and by the PRC (15 times) since 1991 to counter Western condemnations of Ukraine, Taiwan, Xinjiang, etc. There is therefore an “objective defensive alliance” between nuclear powers that are permanent members of the UNSC.

Russia and China on Tuesday, March 23, 2023 accused the United States of undermining global security by seeking to deploy missiles in several countries around the world to “maintain a unilateral military advantage”. “Russia and China express concern over the intensification of United States activities aimed at creating a global missile defense system and deploying its elements in various regions of the world, combined with an increase in the capacity of non-weapons high-precision nuclear weapons,” said the Chinese and Russian presidents.

The joint declaration signed this Tuesday, March 23, 2023 at the end of the talks is clear: the two powers "are very concerned about the growing strengthening of ties between NATO and the countries of the Asia-Pacific region concerning military issues and those security", targeting the Aukus strategic alliance between the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia.

Eurasian cooperation

This anti-Western team is coupled with a certain cooperation on a Eurasian scale: jointly creating the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in 2001, Russia and China have sought to establish a real joint hegemony in Eurasia to fight against terrorism, separatism and organized crime in the region. But also to counter the influence of the United States in the region following the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The SCO brings together during regular military exercises in all dimensions (air, land, sea, cyber) the two military powers and their allies. Chinese support for Russia was signaled last September by the PRC's participation in the Vostok 2022 exercise in the Far East.

XI Jinping's visit to Moscow confirms that the PRC is a "foul weather friend" of Russia, in other words an ally even in times of crisis: in Eurasia and at the UN, economically and in the military fields, the Sino-Russian strategic partnership is real and claims to carry an alternative (and hostile) vision of the world to that of the West.

More concretely, the PRC quietly supports the Russian invasion by refusing to adopt sanctions, fueling the Russian military-industrial complex and recently proposing a Russian-Ukrainian peace plan that emphasizes security guarantees. for Russia.

THE WAR IN UKRAINE ONE YEAR LATER

A POWERFUL DEVELOPER

GLOBAL DIVIDES

"Global South" versus "Global North"

From the beginning of the war in Ukraine, a ridge line appeared within the international community which is characterized by an opposition between North and South. A year after the start of the conflict, this opposition is even more embodied between countries of the "Global South", this heterogeneous group of countries formerly called "underdeveloped" with a growing role on the international scene, and those of the "Global North". , another name for the West, according to the terminology used by these first

On the one hand, Western countries have closed ranks around Ukraine, overcoming their internal rivalries to unite in the face of aggression that contradicts the order in place since the end of the Second World War. On the other hand, countries from the “global South”, in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and South America, have opted for a more ambiguous position.

The divisions became evident as early as March 2, 2022, when the UN voted for the first time to condemn the war in Ukraine. If a resolution calling on the Kremlin to end its offensive was voted on by 141 countries, 35 states of the "global South", historically linked to Moscow, including China, India, South Africa and Senegal abstained . A month later, the number of abstaining states soared again, despite the discovery of the Boutcha massacre. Fifty-eight countries, including Brazil, refused on April 7 to participate in the vote organized to exclude Russia from the United Nations Human Rights Council.

Among these countries, heavyweights such as China and India which, with their economic and strategic dynamics, intend to influence international relations. These two powers have so far adopted a calculated neutrality, articulated in the defense of their own interests. They adhere to the Russian discourse according to which Moscow would have been "wronged" by NATO, in Ukraine.

"Calculated neutrality"

In India, the policy of "calculated neutrality" adopted by the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, on the war in Ukraine is consensual. Membership goes far beyond the circle of supporters of the Hindu government: opponents on the left and the media have followed suit. All argue that the conflict in Ukraine is a European problem and that India must put its own interests first.

China also maintains a calculated neutrality relationship with its large Russian neighbor, going so far as to threaten to deliver arms to Russia. China has not condemned the Russian aggression of Ukraine. Xi Jinping has also just proposed a peace plan, a truly unprecedented announcement regarding the war in Ukraine calling for a de-escalation of violence to achieve a ceasefire. Where Westerners hoped for a condemnation of the war led by Russia in Ukraine and a request for the departure of Russian troops, China is asking not to resort to nuclear weapons and to respect territorial integrity. Beijing obviously does not want an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, but shows a certain solidarity with Russia, considering the extension of NATO to Eastern Europe as aggressive.

Towards a geopolitical recomposition

Indeed, in the shadow of the war being played out on Ukrainian soil, Europe is re-NATOising. The United States has revived it by relying on the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and is encouraging its members to switch to a war economy. Finland and Sweden are asking to join. Poland holds an important place on the American chessboard. Warsaw buys American, military and civilian nuclear equipment and has announced its desire to increase its military expenditure to 4% of its GDP, proportionally the highest expenditure of NATO members. Poland would then belong to a defensive system that goes from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea. Washington's influence has grown significantly in Central and Eastern Europe at the cost of giving up a European defense, it seems.

But, for their part, the Russian, Chinese and South African navies are taking part in unprecedented naval maneuvers which are with the deployment of Zircon hypersonic missiles on board the Admiral Gorchkov frigate. These maneuvers illustrate the strength of the relationship between Johannesburg and Moscow, despite Western pressure. And illustrates the limits of "neutrality" and the defense of its own interest, which Pretoria continues to display.

The conflict is not just about 'the West against the rest of the world'"

Even if these naval maneuvers - which take place in the Indian Ocean, off the coast of South Africa - were planned for a long time, they come after a tour of Africa by the head of Russian diplomacy, Sergei Lavrov. , which aimed to establish the strategy of Russian influence on the continent, from Bamako to Khartoum via Nouakchott, after having visited Angola and South Africa at the end of January. China is getting closer to the Gulf countries, the Chinese leader was well received in Riyadh in December 2022, which had not been the case with Joe Biden during his summer tour. It is also getting closer to Iran, which has delivered drones to Russia. This clearly shows that this position of neutrality, shared by many countries of the "global South",

Besides, Russia benefits economically from the policy of New Delhi and Riyadh.

On October 5, shortly after Joe Biden visited Riyadh to try to convince Saudi Arabia to increase its oil production to help Europe through the winter, OPEC members have decided on the contrary to reduce it. The greatest powers of the South have also benefited from the very low prices practiced by Russia to sell its oil and gas. China imported record levels, while India increased its imports 33 times. Some of these countries have reached such an economic level that the West is no longer able to exert any pressure on them. This heterogeneous "global South" finds its unity in the demand for a "multipolar" world order, in the face of the "unipolar hegemony" of the West.

"Multipolar" world against Western hegemony

A few weeks before ordering the invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin, traveling to China, did not he already sign with Xi Jinping a declaration on the need to "advance multipolarity". Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, has been carrying out a charm operation since the beginning of the war. From Pretoria to Khartoum, via Egypt, Mali and Ethiopia, he constantly invokes the "creation of a multipolar world order against "the hegemony of the West".

China just yesterday Monday March 6, 2023 bluntly denounces this Western hegemony "Western countries, led by the United States, have implemented a policy of containment, encirclement and repression against China, which has brought unprecedented challenges to the development of our country,” Xi Jinping said according to an account by the China News News Agency published Monday evening. A rhetoric close to that of his Russian counterpart.

Fierce rivalry between China and the United States

Especially since the subjects of friction between China and the United States have multiplied in recent years, from the treatment of Uyghur Muslims to the imbalance of the trade balance, via Taiwan, the domination in advanced technologies or the accusations of espionage, particularly in the case of the balloons. For the manufacture of semiconductors, the Americans having lost their dominant position to the benefit of the Asian giant, the United States, in the name of a supposed threat to its national security, have thus multiplied in recent months the sanctions against Chinese chipmakers, now hampered from sourcing American technologies. In February, it was Tiktok's turn to be accused of being able to monopolize the data of its users, and of semiconductors...

A technological decoupling is announced, organized around a Sino-American bipolarization, leaving Europe, off the hook, largely behind. And which foreshadows others...

WOKE CENSORSHIP AT WORK

IN JAMES BOND'S BOOKS

New indexes. Terms deemed offensive following 'sensitivity testing' and certain 'racial references' have been removed from new editions of classic James Bond works, British daily The Telegraph reported on Saturday (February 25, 2023). These re-edited versions of writer Ian Fleming's novels are also expected to carry a "disclaimer".

Contextualization and warnings

This disclaimer should be visible on the first pages of the book and could be worded as follows: "This book was written at a time when terms and attitudes that might be considered offensive by modern readers were commonplace" , says the newspaper. The latter continues: “A number of updates have been made to this edition, while remaining as close as possible to the original text and the period in which it takes place. »

Thus, certain terms, such as the word "nigger" which appeared in the writings of the 1950s and 1960s have been removed from this new version of the adventures of agent 007 which should be published next April. Some depictions of black people have been “reworked” or “removed”, while other references to other populations – such as Asians – have been retained. This is particularly the case of the caricatural and sometimes coarse description of Oddjob, the Korean henchman of the character of Auric Goldfinger, in the novel, of the same name.

However, certain phrases considered nowadays as obsolete, homophobic or particularly sexist have been retained. This is the case of a reference to "the sweet flavor of rape", to a "man's job" or to homosexuality as a "tenacious handicap", reports the English daily.

Controversy around the reissue of works by Roald Dahl

These corrections are the result of an order from the company holding the literary rights to the James Bond character. The latter has in fact placed an order for a rereading of the work of James Bond to a group of sensitive readers who are likely to make changes. This update comes, however, following an initial controversy in the United Kingdom over the rewriting of certain passages from Roald Dahl's children's books.

Indeed, the rights holders of Roald Dahl's work announced in mid-February that they intended to smooth the language of all the British writer's children's novels. The number of modified terms is vast, touching on issues considered sensitive: race and ethnicity, gender, weight, physical appearance, mental health, violence, etc. An “enormously big” character has therefore become “enormous”. “A crazy thing” has become “a weird thing”.

This revelation was particularly shocking in Great Britain. “This is absurd censorship,” writer Salman Rushdie wrote on Twitter. Despite this rewriting in English, at the initiative of the rights holders, its French publisher, Gallimard, indicated on Tuesday, February 21, that it intended to leave the texts of the British author intact.

CHINA "VERY CONCERNED" BY THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE PRONE "THE DIALOGUE"

A few days before the first anniversary of the Russian invasion on February 24, Secretary of State Antony Blinken has expressed concern that China is considering supplying weapons to Russia - allegations denied by Beijing.

"It's been almost a year now that the crisis in Ukraine has seen a general escalation," Qin Gang, China's foreign minister, said Tuesday at a conference in Beijing.

"China is very worried about this conflict which is intensifying and even getting out of control," he stressed to several dozen foreign ambassadors and diplomats.

Beijing also views arms deliveries to Ukraine with suspicion. "We call on the countries concerned to stop throwing oil on the fire as soon as possible and to stop blaming China," said Qin Gang, referring in particular to Western calls for Beijing to put the blame on China. pressure on Moscow.

"We will continue to promote peace talks... and work with the international community to promote dialogue and consultation, address the concerns of all parties and pursue common security."

"Ruppet"

Qin Gang also dismissed any parallels between Ukraine and Taiwan, an island the People's Republic of China has intended to attach to the rest of its territory since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949.

It is necessary "to stop making a fuss by shouting 'Today Ukraine, tomorrow Taiwan'", underlined the minister, responding to concerns about a potential Chinese military invasion of the island territory of 23 million inhabitants. "The pressures and attempts to contain China, coming from outside, are growing stronger" and "pose a serious threat to China's sovereignty and security," Qin Gang said. "China has always been on the path of peaceful development. It has never initiated a conflict or war, nor invaded an inch of land from another country."

Meeting with Putin?

On Ukraine, Beijing said last week that it wanted to make public soon a proposal to find "a political solution" to the war. The head of Chinese diplomacy, Wang Yi, is expected on Tuesday in Russia, the last leg of a European tour which has already taken him to France, Italy, Hungary and Germany.

The Kremlin said on Monday that Wang could meet President Vladimir Putin during his visit, according to Russian news agency Tass. Western pressure is mounting on China, which has never publicly supported or criticized the Russian offensive, while repeatedly expressing its support for Moscow in the face of Western sanctions.

"Providing lethal support to Russia to aid in its war of aggression in Ukraine would have real consequences for our relations with China," Antony Blinken said. The head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, estimated that a possible delivery of arms by China to Russia would constitute a "red line" for the European Union

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, Wang Wenbin, on Monday denied the US allegations, accusing Washington of "spreading false information".

"It is the United States and not China that is constantly sending weapons to the battlefield," he added.

HUMANITARIAN AID IN DROPS

IN SYRIA

DUE TO GEOPOLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS

This humanitarian aid is crucial, say the NGOs together, especially in the rebel areas where the situation was already dramatic. Even before the earthquakes, the north-west of Syria was home, according to the UN, to 2.9 million displaced persons and 4 million inhabitants in need of winter assistance.

And yet five days later, humanitarian aid is still struggling to arrive in Syria. While Turkey was able to benefit fairly quickly from international assistance - 95 countries responded to Turkey's request for aid - the Syrian neighbor appears to have been largely forgotten by this wave of support and was initially unable to count than on its Russian ally, then later on the United Arab Emirates, Iran and Egypt.

For what ?

A region torn apart by civil war

The country has been immersed in a civil war for 11 years between the central power led with an iron fist by Bashar Al-Assad and various armed rebellions. A conflict which has gradually isolated Damascus and its authoritarian ruler and which today makes it more difficult to send rescuers to the region.

The earthquake-affected north of Syria is indeed a deeply divided territory. The region is divided into four: the territories controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), mainly Kurdish, those managed by jihadists, the border area under Turkish influence and that subject to the regime of Bashar Al-Assad.

The region affected by the earthquake can be divided into four zones, each controlled by a different group.

On the one hand, the city of Aleppo and its surroundings which are in the hands of Bashar al-Assad's government. On the other hand, the rebel areas with the Idleb region, controlled by Hayat Tahrir al-Cham (HTS heir to the Al-Qaeda group), those along the Turkish border with pro-Turkish rebels and those of east, held by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

And these four areas are sometimes themselves divided by different factions and militias, describes geographer Jean-François Corty, member of Ifris.

“Each group will try to pull the blanket towards them and take advantage of this situation,” he laments. With the corollary of an instrumentalization of humanitarian aid...

The risk of Turkish blockage

Turkey's attitude is also a not insignificant blocking point in the delivery of food to Syria. The Turks want us to help them first. Erdogan plays part of his re-election on this.

And it is impossible to take the direction of Syria by road from Turkey without the agreement of Ankara. Not to mention the visceral hatred that the Turkish regime has for the Kurdish populations, who still live in the region, and who therefore cannot expect anything from Ankara.

A single crossing point at the Turkish-Syrian border

In addition, the only way to access northwestern Syria is through humanitarian corridors from Turkey, even if "snow and freezing temperatures" complicate the transport of equipment, explained El-Mostafa Benlamlih, coordinator with the UN, Wednesday during a press briefing.

Initially, the United Nations guaranteed the opening of four crossing points. But in 2020, under pressure from Russia and China, allies of the Syrian government, three cross-border crossings were closed.

There is only Bab al Hawa, the only crossing point on the border, guaranteed by a resolution of the Security Council of the United Nations. However, it was affected by the earthquakes, the UN said on Tuesday.

We therefore expect the reopening of the other three points to facilitate the establishment of humanitarian corridors to Turkey. A request relayed Thursday by the Secretary General of the UN, Antonio Guterres:

“I would obviously be very happy if the Security Council could find a consensus to authorize more crossing points,” he hoped.

Bashar al-Assad's Syria ostracized

For NGOs and states, the other solution would be to send aid directly from Syrian territory controlled by Damascus. A request that the government of Bashar al-Assad explicitly formulated on Tuesday, urging the international community to come to its aid and promising that this would benefit "all Syrians throughout the territory", including areas held by rebels in Syria, where 5.3 million people are at risk of homelessness, according to the UN.

But the international community has shown itself in all its ambiguity. Faced with the urgency of the situation, the European Union and the United States, which have severed all diplomatic relations with Damascus, seem to be looking for half-hearted solutions. On Thursday, France announced emergency aid to all Syrian regions, while insisting that this did not change Paris ' "political approach" vis-à-vis the Damascus regime.

The same goes for the United States: "We are determined to bring aid to the Syrian people as we have done for years as the first provider of international aid," said Secretary of State Antony Blinken Wednesday.

"But the funds will go to the Syrian people and not to the government in Damascus."

For their part, some Arab countries have reconnected and sent aid to President Bashar al-Assad as he has been ostracized since his exclusion from the Arab League in late 2011.

The United Arab Emirates, the first Gulf country to restore relations with Damascus, has already pledged aid of at least $50 million and sent planes loaded with humanitarian aid. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have also pledged aid, including to government-controlled areas.

According to Nick Heras, a researcher at the New Lines Institute, these earthquakes could thus be an opportunity for Bashar al-Assad "to try to advance the process of normalization of his regime with the rest of the Arab world".

"It is imperative that everyone sees this situation for what it is: a humanitarian crisis in which lives are at stake. Please do not politicize it", launched Tuesday February 7 the spokesperson of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Jens Laerke.

MOLDOVA DESTABILIZED BY

THE WAR IN UKRAINE

Influx of refugees, energy crisis, fear of an invasion...

Exhausted by "so many crises", Natalia Gravilita, Prime Minister of the neighboring country of Ukraine, resigned on Friday February 10, 2023. And this after a year and a half in power in this former Soviet republic which is suffering the brunt of the consequences of the war in Ukraine.

As early as February 2022, when the first bombs fell on kyiv, Chisinau had declared a state of emergency throughout Moldovan territory and closed its airspace. A space violated on Friday by the overflight of a Russian cruise missile.

"An unacceptable violation" of airspace according to Chisinau.

The day before, the Moldovan intelligence services had also confirmed information from kyiv that Moscow was planning to overthrow the pro-European government in Chisinau.

In a few weeks, this small country of 2.6 million inhabitants saw an influx of 250,000 refugees. Dependent 100% on Russian gas before the war and regularly deprived of electricity by strikes on Ukrainian installations, it also took the full brunt of the energy crisis which caused inflation to take off (34%).

Extremely dependent on Russia, the small country of 2.6 million inhabitants nestled between Ukraine and Romania suffered a drastic reduction in deliveries from the giant Gazprom after the Russian invasion.

But more than anything, it is the fear of a Russian invasion that has been tensing Chisinau for a year. Part of its territory, Transnistria (500,000 inhabitants), has already been in the hands of separatists since 1991:

nearly 12,000 soldiers in the pay of the Kremlin are stationed in this pro-Russian enclave. 

Maia Sandu accused Moscow of being behind the trafficking of arms, goods, human trafficking or of financing anti-government demonstrations: in short, of waging a "hybrid war".

Threat not denied by Moscow...

On February 3, in a television interview, the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergei Lavrov, had he not mentioned a potential extension of the war in Ukraine to neighboring Moldova ?

His wrong in his eyes ?

Being in the hands of a pro-European president, Maia Sandu, tickled by "the desire to join NATO".

However, the question is not on the agenda even if the country submitted its application to join the European Union in June 2022.

Appointed this Friday afternoon by the President, the new Prime Minister Dorin Recean, 48, should be confirmed quickly by Parliament.

MORE THAN 19300 DEAD AFTER EARTHQUAKE IN TURKEY AND SYRIA

AND CRITICISM AGAINST ERDOGAN

According to the latest report announced overnight from Wednesday to Thursday, at least 19300 people died in Turkey and Syria after the 7.8 magnitude earthquake and its aftershocks that hit the region on Monday. It exceeds this Thursday the 19300 dead, with more than 64000 injured in Turkey and 5000 in Syria. And the chances of survival are dwindling.

According to the latest reports from local authorities, Turkey officially deplores at least 16170 dead and 6444 buildings destroyed. This is the worst toll since the 1999 earthquake, with a magnitude of 7.4 and which left 17000 dead, including a thousand in Istanbul. In Syria, at least 3162 people have lost their lives, both in government-held and rebel areas. In total, the provisional toll stands at 19332 dead.

"The number of dead and injured is expected to increase significantly, with many families still under the collapsed buildings," Raed Saleh, the head of the relief service in northwestern Syria, said on Twitter Thursday morning. .

The Turkish interior minister warned on Tuesday that the next 48 hours would be "crucial" to find any survivors. International aid has started to arrive in Turkey, where national mourning has been declared for seven days.

It has already established itself as one of the ten deadliest of the century, and could exceed the 17000 deaths deplored during the last major earthquake in Turkey, in 1999.

Some Turkish experts even fear a balance sheet close to the 1939 earthquake (34000 dead, the worst in the country for seven centuries) because of the probably very high number of people engulfed under the rubble of thousands of buildings.

Erdogan, strongly criticized, recognizes "gaps"

After the violent earthquake that struck his country on Monday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan finds himself under pressure three months before the presidential and legislative elections which were already shaping up to be tight before the disaster. Faced with mounting criticism of the slowness and disorganization of relief, the leader in power since 2003 went to the disaster area on Wednesday and began a mea culpa.

"Of course there are shortcomings, it is impossible to be prepared for such a disaster," he pleaded from the province of Hatay, near the Syrian border.

“We had difficulties at the start with the airports and on the roads, but today it is better and it will be even better tomorrow”, replied the Head of State, Recep Tayyip Erdogan to defuse the anger.

"We have mobilized all our resources, the state is doing its job with Afad [public relief organization, editor's note] and the municipalities concerned with all the means at its disposal", hammered the Turkish president, in difficulty in the polls for re-election in the May 14 presidential election.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in power since 2003, announced the distribution of 10000 Turkish liras (494 euros) to each affected family.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan probably remembers that it was the incompetence of the authorities during the last big earthquake in Turkey, in 1999, which led his party to victory three years later. The Prime Minister at the time, Bulent Ecevit, had been the subject of strong criticism for having neglected relief to the populations.

This time, the Head of State immediately declared a maximum level of emergency calling for international assistance.

"Any help needed, whatever it is"

The first teams of foreign rescuers arrived on Tuesday, with dozens of countries offering their services to Ankara including those from the European Union and the Gulf, the United States, China and even Ukraine.

According to Mr. Erdogan, who declared a state of emergency for three months in the ten provinces affected by the earthquake, forty-five countries offered their help.

"An effective response to the emergency could strengthen the head of state and his party, the AKP, by arousing a feeling of national solidarity under the leadership of Erdogan", estimates in a note Wolfango Piccoli, from the consulting firm in political risk Teneo, based in London.

For its part, the opposition claims that the high number of deaths is not only linked to the earthquake, but to poorly regulated and poor quality construction. Most Turkish homes are not built to earthquake-resistant standards, despite a law passed in 2007 that is poorly enforced due to corruption.

And Syria ?

On the Syrian side, the concern of the international community grows as the hours pass. Aid and relief and international in Syria are more difficult to implement due to geopolitical considerations. Emergency aid "should not be politicized", insisted the UN.

However, the United Nations (UN) has received assurances that part of the emergency humanitarian aid "would pass on Thursday, February 10, 2023" through the Bab Al-Hawa crossing point, the only one authorized between Turkey and northwestern Syria, said the UN special envoy in Geneva, Geir Pedersen. In Syria, however, the appeal launched by the authorities in Damascus was mainly heard by its Russian ally.

According to the army, more than 300 Russian soldiers are already on the spot to help the relief. On Tuesday, Washington said it was working with local non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in Syria, insisting that " its funds will of course go to the Syrian people, not the [Damascus] regime"...

THE WORLD IS HEADING TOWARDS

"A WIDER WAR" ACCORDING TO THE UN

"We started the year 2023 with in our sights a convergence of challenges never seen in our lifetime", was alarmed Monday, February 6, 2023 the Secretary General of the UN before the General Assembly.

The group of scientists managing the doomsday clock also recently estimated that humanity has never been so close to the end of the world, now at 90 seconds before midnight, he recalled, including seeing an alarm signal.

"We need to wake up and get to work", he insisted, listing the pressing issues for 2023.

At the very top of this list, the war in Ukraine.

Prospects for peace continue to dwindle.

The risks of further escalation and carnage continue to grow.

"I'm afraid the world is not sleepwalking into a larger war, but I'm afraid it's actually doing it with its eyes wide open", he said, before worry about other threats to peace.

MORE THAN 5000 DEAD IN POWERFUL EARTHQUAKE

IN TURKEY AND SYRIA

The first quake of magnitude 7.8 occurred in southeastern Turkey, about 60 km as the crow flies from the Syrian border; Dozens of aftershocks followed, before a new 7.5 magnitude quake in southeastern Turkey.

Several archaeological sites were affected in Syria and in particular the citadel of Aleppo.

In Turkey, nearly 3000 buildings have collapsed, according to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan

The toll continues to rise, with huge numbers of people remaining trapped under the collapsed buildings which number in the thousands. The rain and snow, which fell in some places in abundance, and the expected drop in temperatures will make the situation of people who find themselves homeless, as well as the work of the relief workers, even more difficult.

And the numbers keep climbing.

In Turkey, the death toll currently stands at 3419 and that of the injured at 20534, according to Vice President Fuat Oktay.

In Syria, at least 1602 people have died and 3,640 have been injured, according to Syrian authorities and rescue workers in rebel areas. In the government-controlled part of Syria, the death toll has risen to 812 dead and 1449 injured, according to the health ministry.

In areas under rebel control, the White Helmets (civil defense volunteers) reported 790 dead and more than 2200 injured.

The balance sheet is still likely to evolve in the affected cities, Adana, Gaziantep, Sanliurfa, Diyarbakir in particular. In Iskenderun and Adiyaman, public hospitals collapsed under the effect of the earthquake, which occurred at a depth of about 17.9 kilometers. The bad weather in this mountainous region paralyzes the main airports around Diyarbakir and Malatya, where it continues to snow very heavily, leaving the survivors haggard, in their pajamas outside in the cold.

The WHO itself said that it expected the worst and feared "tolls eight times higher than the initial numbers".

The first earthquake, which occurred overnight from Sunday to Monday, took place at the level of the East Anatolian fault, in the east of Turkey, where two tectonic plates meet. It is a major tectonic border between Anatolia and Europe.

The first earthquake was followed by numerous aftershocks, including a magnitude 7.5 earthquake, which occurred late Monday morning.

Turkey sits on one of the most active seismic zones in the world. Several earthquakes have occurred in recent years in the region. This earthquake is the largest in Turkey since the earthquake of August 17, 1999, which caused the death of 17000 people, including a thousand in Istanbul.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose reaction to this tragedy will most likely be closely watched before the May 14 election which promises to be very tight, called for national unity. A seven-day national mourning has been declared.

“We hope that we will come out of this disaster together as soon as possible and with the least possible damage,” he tweeted, adding that Turkey had received aid from 45 countries.

Condolences poured in from all over the world, from American President Joe Biden to his Russian counterparts Vladimir Putin to the still Chinese Xi Jinping, passing by Pope Francis who said he was "deeply saddened", as well as offers of humanitarian and medical aid...

EXTENSION OF THE STATE OF EMERGENCY

BY THE MILITARY IN MYANMAR

On February 1, 2023, it has been two years since the military regained power in Burma, imprisoning democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi and sparking a brutal civil war that left more than 2,800 dead and 13,000 civilians behind. bars. And on this anniversary day, the junta extends the state of emergency.

Indeed the National Defense and Security Council, made up of members of the junta, agreed on Wednesday to extend the state of emergency in Burma by six months, official media announced.

Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing's request to extend the state of emergency, declared when the military overthrew Aung San Suu Kyi's government in February 2021, has been granted, state broadcaster MRTV said.

Acting President Myint Swe added that "The sovereign power of the state has once again been transferred to the Commander-in-Chief".

The state of emergency was due to expire at the end of January, but on Tuesday the National Defense and Security Council met to discuss the state of the nation and concluded that it was "not yet back to normal". normal".

Will the Burmese resign themselves to a new period of military dictatorship in Burma ?

Isn't the army numerically and materially in a strong position against the civil disobedience movement ?

A movement of civil disobedience ?

Admittedly, Min Aung Hlaing also affirmed that the “government will work to organize elections in all regions of the country so that the people do not lose their democratic prerogatives”.

The opposition party led by Aung San Suu Kyi (the National League for Democracy or NLD) is struggling to make itself heard. Several senior representatives of the National League for Democracy as well as activists, intellectuals and artists were also arrested in February 2021.

Life goes on somehow, food prices have doubled in two years, but wages have remained the same. The anniversary of the coup is experienced with gloom, and part of the population has decided, like last year, to stay at home – a form of silent protest.

A new set of international sanctions

The United States, joined by Great Britain, Canada and Australia, announced a new set of sanctions. Will they be more effective than those imposed so far on Burma?

For the first time, Washington is targeting Myanmar's largest oil and gas producer, "MOGE":

it is from the coffers of this state enterprise that the junta draws the bulk of its income.

In all, six officials (among them the Minister of Energy) and three public companies have their assets in the United States frozen. Trade and money transfers with them will be prohibited.

The United Kingdom has blacklisted two companies that supply aviation fuel to the army and thus finance a "barbaric campaign of air raids".

Canada and Australia now prohibit the sale and export of fuel for combat aircraft.

Because the armed conflict continues in several regions of the country. Ethnic minority villages are still regularly bombed and burned.

But according to the NGO Human Rights Watch, none of these sanctions taken in dribs and drabs is painful enough to force the military regime to change its policy.

It is also unlikely that the United Nations, divided, will impose an arms embargo, the only way to make the junta bend. Moscow and Beijing, both supporters of the Burmese military, strongly oppose it.

Moreover, for many analysts, the sanctions have never worked.

For Sophie Boisseau du Rocher, researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), the solution is in the hands of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), in particular because "the only partners [that the Burmese military] really consider are […] their immediate neighbours. […]

They are the only ones who can really try to have an impact on the situation, especially Indonesia.

"This last country, says the researcher, "serves as an interface between the different political actors".

It would be a question of finding "a compromise […] behind the curtains"...

When will “the holding of free and fair general elections and the establishment of a true multi-party democracy” already promised in 2021 by Myint Swe, vice-president, who has become interim president ?

ALSO DENOUNCE THE PERSECUTION

OF 360 MILLION CHRISTIANS WORLDWIDE

One in seven Christians

Indeed the finding is clear: more than 360 million Christians were "heavily persecuted and discriminated against" because of their faith in the world in 2022 and North Korea is the worst country for Christians, according to a report by the Open Doors NGO published Wednesday, January 18. This Protestant NGO publishes an annual "global index" of the persecution of Christians, listing all attacks, ranging from "discreet daily oppression" to "the most extreme violence". This annual report reveals a global phenomenon of considerable magnitude.

Twice as many as thirty years ago

Between October 1, 2021 and September 30, 2022, "more than 360 million" Catholics, Orthodox, Protestants, Baptists, Evangelicals, Pentecostals from 76 countries were "heavily persecuted in the world, i.e. one Christian in seven". , said Patrick Victor, director of Portes Ouvertes France, during a press briefing.

A number identical to the year 2022. But for thirty years, "the persecution has spread" with today "76 countries with strong persecution against 40" listed in the first index of the NGO in 1993, underlined Guillaume Guennec.

In addition, "the persecution is intensifying in the countries concerned," he added.

In 2022, 5,621 Christians were killed.

The NGO also recorded "4,542 Christians detained" (including 1,750 in India), against 4,277 the previous year, and "5,259 Christians kidnapped" (including 4,726 in Nigeria), against 3,829. The total number churches closed, attacked, destroyed stands at 2,110, down (5,110 in 2021).

All persecutions combined, North Korea rose to the top of the ranking, dethroning Afghanistan. Somalia, Yemen, Eritrea, Libya, Nigeria, Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan and Sudan follow.

"80 Christians sentenced" in Iran

Over the past thirty years, three trends have been observed. "The African continent is marked by a rise in power of Islamic extremism", with 26 countries with strong persecution against seven in 1993.

In addition, "Christians are often the victims of religious or ideological nationalism", adds the NGO, citing China, since 2017, or even India, with an "explosion of violence". Finally, the organization deplores "the Christian exodus" in the Middle East: "the abuses of (the organization) Islamic State have encouraged Christians to flee Iraq and Syria".

Totalitarianism, religious nationalism, jihadism, Islamic and clan oppression, corruption are the factors of this persecution, analyzes Open Doors.

TWO DEADLY ATTACKS

IN EAST JERUSALEM

The first took place on Friday January 27, 2023 in the evening, near a synagogue, and the second took place this Saturday, January 28, 2023 in the morning, near an archaeological site in the City of David.

The day after a first shooting that killed seven people on Friday evening in East Jerusalem (Israel), the city was again targeted this Saturday.

A father and son were injured in a second attack near an archaeological site.

Facts

In the first shooting, which took place on the evening of Friday January 27, a 21-year-old Palestinian man went near a synagogue in the Neve Yaakov neighborhood during Shabbat prayers and started to shoot at those present.

Seven of them were killed.

Following a chase and exchange of fire with the police, the perpetrator was shot dead.

For the police chief, Kobi Shabtai, it is "one of the worst attacks" suffered by Israel in recent years.

East Jerusalem experienced a second attack this Saturday, January 28, in the morning. It took place near an archaeological site in the City of David, in the Silwan district and injured two people, a 47-year-old father and his 23-year-old son.

The assailant was "neutralized and injured" by bystanders who held a license to carry weapons, according to an Israeli police statement.

Heavy balance sheets, unseen for years, the bloody climax of four weeks of tension between Israelis and Palestinians.

One of the two 13-year-old attackers

Regarding the author of the first attack, little information had filtered about him on Saturday morning. Investigators arrested forty-two people on the sidelines of the shooting. Some of them are family members of the 21-year-old assailant or residents of his neighborhood.

The perpetrator of the second shooting this Saturday is another Palestinian. The police said it was a 13-year-old boy. He was quickly arrested by Israeli security forces.

Cascading reactions

The attack on Jerusalem "is a natural reaction to the crimes of the occupation against our Palestinian people", commented Hamas, while Binyamin Netanyahu promised "immediate measures". US President Joe Biden has slammed an "atrocious terrorist attack" and an "attack on the civilized world".

The head of the American diplomacy, Anthony Blinken, must visit Israel and the West Bank on Monday and Tuesday to insist, according to Washington, on "the urgent need to take de-escalation measures".  

COVID WHY THE NUMBER OF DEATHS IN CHINA

 IS IT UNDERVALUED ACCORDING TO THE WHO ?

But for the first time since abandoning its “zero Covid” strategy, China admitted on Saturday that nearly 60,000 people had died of Covid-19 between December 8, 2022 and January 12, 2023. Twelve times more deaths in one month than in three years according to official figures. By announcing "59,938" deaths from Covid-19 in hospitals on Saturday, China brought its official toll closer to the real situation.

A number that seems however largely underestimated.

Since December, the Chinese are almost no longer subject to any restrictions. Compulsory isolation and quarantines in centers have ended. At the same time, the health authorities have given a boost to the vaccination campaign among the elderly.

But the specialists are formal: with the sudden lifting of all health restrictions, the real balance sheet is much higher.

Indeed, this report only includes deaths recorded in hospital, submerged for more than a month by an unprecedented outbreak of contamination. No person who died of Covid at home or before being taken care of by a healthcare establishment is counted.

As impressive as it is, Beijing's transparency effort (12 times the total toll of the past three years in just five weeks) is not representative of reality.

Between Dec. 8, 2022, the first post-zero Covid day, and Jan. 12, the death toll from the disease in Chinese hospitals stood at 59,938, said Jiao Yahui, director of the office of medical administration within the national health commission.

Of this number, 5,503 deaths are due to respiratory failure, and the remaining 54,435 result from a combination of Covid-19 and other conditions. The average age of those who died is 80.3, she said. Nine out of ten deceased patients were aged 65 and over.

Until then, China only counted deaths due to respiratory failure, and not deaths "linked" to Covid-19. This very restrictive definition had been criticized by the international community and by the World Health Organization (WHO). The latter welcomed the new Chinese communication.

Estimating, moreover, that "only 5,503 patients died directly from respiratory failure due to Covid-19", the health authorities already seem to be mitigating the scope.

Perhaps to satisfy the WHO, rather than to compel to draw up a credible balance sheet.

A political issue for Xi Jinping

Difficult for Beijing to go beyond. If China started to change the figures, to weigh down the balance sheet a little more, wouldn't that be a way of backtracking on the 'zero Covid' policy that has been carried out?

However, Chinese President Xi Jinping, in office since 2020, today weakened by three years of epidemic, seeks to keep his grip on power. The movements of the millions of Chinese, who find themselves with their families for the Lunar New Year festivities, represent a major challenge for the authorities, who fear a new epidemic rebound.

On site, many hospitals are overwhelmed. The patients would sometimes be so numerous that the stretchers would remain on the sidewalk, according to our special correspondents. Full funeral homes.

A population devoid of protection against the virus

If we assume that 70% of the Chinese population is infected in the next few months, and that 0.1% of those infected die (a conservative estimate of the mortality rate of omicron in a population with low exposure to SARS-CoV- 2), a simple calculation suggests that the number of deaths could be close to one million.

A model from Fundan University (Shanghai) arrived at a figure of 1.55 million. At this point, there is little China can do to prevent a significant number of cases and deaths.

And again: the Chinese population is little or badly vaccinated as a whole, and has been relatively spared by previous waves due to the very strict “zero Covid” policy. However, the lesser virulence of Omicron is essentially due... to vaccination and previous infections. Evidenced by the case of Hong Kong, decimated by Omicron last winter.

What about vaccine immunity ?

Indeed, vaccination rates in China are comparable to those in Western countries. But they show an unusual characteristic: they decrease with age.

While they are most at risk of severe forms of Covid, the elderly are thus the least vaccinated demographic group with only 40% of people over 80 having received three doses.

Moreover, the effectiveness of vaccines against transmission has been severely tested, especially since Omicron began spreading in late 2021.

Since China has used so-called “inactivated” vaccines produced by the companies Sinovac and Sinopharm, these vaccines are generally safe, but tend to elicit weaker immune responses than new technologies – such as those used in mRNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) or adenoviral vector (AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson).

The performance of Chinese vaccines has thus been mixed. Admittedly, the globally dominant Omicron variant (via its many sub-variants) is associated with significantly lower disease severity and mortality rates than the Delta variant it replaced…

But it remains a major threat to populations with low immunity, especially the elderly. At the start of 2022, Hong Kong faced similar problems to mainland China, with low prior exposure of its population to the virus.

Hong Kong even had even lower vaccination rates for the elderly than China currently has, but a stronger healthcare system. Yet the Omicron wave that swept through the megalopolis in March 2022 resulted in more cumulative deaths per million people in a matter of days than many countries have seen during the entire pandemic…

Another risk, precisely: the appearance of new variants, due to the intense viral circulation in the Middle Kingdom.

However, for the former adviser to Barack Obama, Ryan Hass, China “will persist in its refusal” to import foreign RNA vaccines. According to him, “adopting Western vaccines would be tantamount to questioning the discourse they have held all this time. All of this is going to cause deaths that could have been avoided.”

The true toll of Covid-19 in China will probably never be known, but it will be heavy.

At the international level, the concern relates to the risk of "importation" of cases - even if, for the moment, no unknown variant seems to have emerged in China.

TRIBUTE TO POPE BENEDICT XVI DEAD AT 95

AND FERVENT GUARDIAN OF DOGMA

The body of Joseph Ratzinger had remained so far in the small private chapel of the monastery where he lived since his renunciation in 2013, located in the heart of the Vatican gardens.

The first images of the pope released

The Vatican released on Sunday the first photos of the body of the pope emeritus, lying on a catafalque, dressed in red - the color of papal mourning - and wearing a white miter adorned with a golden braid, a rosary in his hands. A crucifix, a Christmas tree and a nativity scene are visible in the background.

The transfer of his body to St. Peter's Basilica, the largest Catholic church in the world that can accommodate tens of thousands of worshippers, will take place at dawn on Monday.

The basilica, a masterpiece of architecture combining Renaissance and Baroque styles, completed in 1626, is also one of the holiest places in Christianity, since it houses the tomb of Saint Peter, the first bishop of Rome whose popes are the successors. On Sunday, Pope Francis once again paid homage to “beloved” Benedict XVI, “this faithful servant of the Gospel and of the Church”.

Brilliant theologian and fervent guardian of dogma, Benedict XVI, whose renunciation in 2013 took the whole world by surprise, died Saturday morning at the age of 95, the Vatican announced.

“ I am sorry to announce that the Pope Emeritus, Benedict XVI, died today at 9:34 a.m., at the Mater Ecclesiae Monastery, in the Vatican. Other information will be communicated to you as soon as possible” , announced in a press release the director of the press service of the Holy See, Matteo Bruni.

A look back at the life of Pope Benedict XVI

Joseph Ratzinger was born on April 16, 1927 in Marktl, Bavaria, not far from the Austrian border. When he was 14 (in 1941), he was enrolled in the Hitler Youth. At the end of the war, he began his training as a priest. He was ordained in 1951, while continuing his studies in theology.

In 1977, he was appointed Archbishop of Munich and Freising, then Cardinal.

In 1981, Pope John Paul II appointed him Prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith. It is one of the organisms of the Roman curia, responsible for promoting doctrine and morals in conformity with the faith throughout the Catholic world. In this position, he familiarized himself with the mysteries of the Vatican and rubbed shoulders with the sovereign pontiff very closely. Also, on the death of John Paul II on April 2, 2005, Cardinal Ratzinger was one of the favorites to succeed the deceased pope. He was actually elected on April 19, 2005 during the conclave.

"After the great Pope John Paul II, the cardinals elected me, a simple and humble worker in the vineyard of the Lord", he declared after his election, choosing the name of Benedict XVI.

The last pope to have participated in the Second Vatican Council, he nevertheless defended a conservative line at the head of the Church, in particular on abortion, homosexuality and euthanasia.

A pontificate marked by controversy

His death puts an end to the unusual cohabitation of two men in white: the German Joseph Ratzinger, a brilliant theologian not very comfortable with crowds, and the Argentinian Jorge Bergoglio, a Jesuit endowed with an incisive word who wanted put the poor and migrants back at the center of the Church's mission.

The pontificate of Benedict XVI was marked by many crises.

In 2006, Benoit XVI angered the Muslim world. In a speech at the University of Regensburg, the sovereign pontiff quotes a Byzantine emperor for whom Islam is "intrinsically violent". The allusion caused a scandal.

Benoit XVI will apologize later and quickly, the Vatican organizes several visits throughout the Islamic world in order to restore harmonious interreligious relations. Two months later, the sovereign pontiff appears praying alongside the religious leader of Istanbul at the Blue Mosque.

His pontificate was also marked in 2012 by the leak of confidential documents (“Vatileaks”) orchestrated by his butler. The scandal had exposed a Roman Curia (Vatican government) plagued by intrigue and devoid of financial rigor.

After eight years of pontificate marked by multiple crises, Benedict XVI was also caught up in early 2022 by the drama of pedocrime in the Church.

Questioned by a report in Germany on his management of sexual violence when he was Archbishop of Munich, he broke his silence to ask for "pardon" but assured that he had never covered up a child criminal.

His renunciation, announced in Latin on February 11, 2013, was a personal decision linked to his declining strength and not to the pressure of scandals, he assured in a book of confidences published in 2016. By this gesture, unprecedented in six centuries, the first German pope in modern history paved the way for his successors whose strength would come to decline. François, 86 years old and suffering from knee pain, left this possibility “open” himself.

"[...] I ask forgiveness from the bottom of my heart"

Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI, who died Saturday at the age of 95, asks "forgiveness" to all those to whom he has "caused harm", in his spiritual testament written in 2006. "To all those to whom I have caused harm from one way or another, I ask forgiveness from the bottom of my heart,” wrote Joseph Ratzinger, pope from 2005 to 2013, in this text dated August 29, 2006 and published Saturday evening by the press service of the Holy See.

"I pray that our land will remain a land of faith, and I beg you, dear compatriots: do not let yourselves be distracted from the faith", also writes the 265th pope, who had surprised the whole world by renouncing his office before retire to a monastery for almost ten years.

“And I want to thank the Lord for my beautiful homeland at the foot of the Alps. Bavaria, in which I have always seen the splendor of the Creator himself shine,” he adds.

“And finally, I thank God for all the beauty I was able to experience at all stages of my journey, but especially in Rome and Italy, which became my second home. »

“Stay firm in the faith ! Don't be confused! “, he urges again.

HOW TO RESPOND TO THE RESURGENCE OF COVID IN CHINA ?

"BF.7", and this since the abrupt abandonment, at the beginning of the month, of its so-called "zero Covid" policy. According to the Financial Times, Chinese health authorities have estimated that the country is registering nearly 37 million new infections per day.

However, the country announced the end of mandatory quarantines on arrival in the territory from January 8, 2023 and the gradual resumption of foreign travel for Chinese.

Several countries, including the United States, are so concerned that Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the head of the World Health Organization (WHO), called on Beijing to provide "more detailed information", and deemed the protective measures announced by other countries for travelers from China.

Indeed, several countries including Italy or Japan, as well as the United States, have decided to impose compulsory tests on all travelers coming from China.

China responds to WHO

"Since the outbreak of the epidemic, China has shared reliable information and data with the international community, including the WHO, in an open and transparent manner," said a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson. , Wang Wenbin.

“We shared the sequence of the new coronavirus from the start and made an important contribution to the development of reliable vaccines and drugs in other countries,” he added to the press.

On Friday, only 5,515 new cases and one death were announced by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Figures that no longer seem to reflect reality, generalized screenings are no longer mandatory.

“China has always published its data on Covid-19 deaths and serious cases in a desire for openness and transparency”, assured Thursday a senior health official, Jiao Yahui, quoted by the new China agency. .

In China, only patients who died of respiratory failure caused by the virus and tested positive are considered victims of Covid-19. An official of China's anti-Covid policy, Liang Wannian, judged the decision to be scientifically appropriate on Thursday, according to New China. Other countries count patients who died within 28 days of a positive test.

EU deems screening of visitors from China 'unjustified'

The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, on the other hand, believes that Europeans are sufficiently immunized and vaccinated. The introduction of compulsory screening for Covid-19 within the European Union for travelers arriving from China is "unjustified", the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) ruled on Thursday.

EU countries "have relatively high immunization and vaccination levels" and "variants circulating in China are already circulating in the EU", the Stockholm-based agency claims, adding that "potential infections" imported are numerically “rather low” compared to the number of infections already recorded on a daily basis in Europe. The continent's health systems are further able to manage the disease, experts say.

The ECDC therefore contradicts the call of the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, who, after imposing tests on air passengers from China, wanted to impose the measure at Union level. However, the Health Security Committee wishes to "continue the discussions" in the face of a very worried Italy.

In addition, no new variant of Covid-19 has been identified. According to the information currently available, the variants circulating in China so far are all of the Omicron family. Tests carried out in Italy did not identify any new strain. The European population has therefore acquired immunity against them.

Moreover, the immunologist Brigitte Autran, president of the Committee for monitoring and anticipating health risks (Covars), did she not rightly declare this Thursday, December 29:

“The possible test would not be a barrier to the entry of the virus. There is no barrier to the entry of the virus:

the only obstacle to the entry of the virus is not to come ".

CHINA EFFECTIVELY PROTECT CHINESE PEOPLE'S LIVES AGAINST COVID

This is the Beijing strongman's first public comment since the sudden abandonment, in early December, of strict anti-Covid measures, in force since 2020.

Three years after the appearance of the very first cases of Sars-CoV-2 in Wuhan (center), the country is facing an explosion of cases. Many hospitals are overwhelmed, pharmacies are reporting shortages of fever medication, while many crematoriums have reportedly reported an unusually high influx of bodies to be cremated.

“Building a strong bulwark against the epidemic”

"The prevention and control of Covid-19 in China is facing a new situation and new tasks," said Xi Jinping, quoted by state television CCTV.

China has only officially announced six Covid deaths since restrictions were lifted. A assessment largely undervalued according to some experts, while a large part of the elderly in the country are not vaccinated against the virus.

Low immunity of the Chinese population

China's strict control over its population has indeed enabled it to prevent a general transmission of Covid to all of its immense territory since the beginning of 2020 – which is a tour de force.

The nearly 10 million cases reported to the World Health Organization in the past three years (figures differ between sources) represent only a tiny fraction of its 1.412 billion population.

But this achievement has the unfortunate consequence that its population has only acquired minimal immunity to Covid through exposure to the virus.

What about vaccine immunity ?

Vaccination rates in China are comparable to those in Western countries. But they show an unusual characteristic: they decrease with age.

While they are most at risk of severe forms of Covid, the elderly are thus the least vaccinated demographic group with only 40% of people over 80 having received three doses.

Moreover, the effectiveness of vaccines against transmission has been severely tested, especially since Omicron began spreading in late 2021.

Since China has used so-called "inactivated" vaccines, manufactured by the companies Sinovac and Sinopharm, these vaccines are generally safe, but tend to elicit weaker immune responses than new technologies - such as those used in mRNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) or adenoviral vector (AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson).

The performance of Chinese vaccines has thus been mixed. Admittedly, the globally dominant Omicron variant (via its many sub-variants) is associated with significantly lower disease severity and mortality rates than the Delta variant it replaced…

But it remains a major threat to populations with low immunity, especially the elderly.

Any vaccination campaign that focuses on the most vulnerable people, however, is still likely to be beneficial.

“We need to carry out a more targeted patriotic health campaign...and build a strong bulwark against the epidemic,” Chinese President Xi Jinping said.

HISTORIC AGREEMENT "KUNMING-MONTREAL"

ON BIODIVERSITY

The meeting seemed crucial: none of the previous objectives for the 2010-2020 period had been achieved and yet the pressure on natural environments continues to increase. Species are disappearing at an unprecedented rate, more than a million are threatened with extinction and 75% of the earth's surface has already been altered by humans.

The UN conference on biodiversity therefore opened in Montreal with a colossal challenge: to conclude in two weeks a historic agreement, the “last chance” to save species and natural environments from irreversible destruction. Delegates from more than 190 countries met until December 19 to adopt a new ten-year global framework to safeguard nature and its resources essential to humanity.

“Humanity has become a weapon of mass extinction,” the UN Secretary-General thundered on Tuesday, December 13, 2022, during the curtain-raising of the summit, because of “our unlimited appetite for uncontrolled economic growth and uneven”.

“Together we have taken a historic step”,

After four years of difficult negotiations, ten days and a night of diplomatic marathon, more than 190 States have reached an agreement under the aegis of China, president of COP15, despite opposition from the Democratic Republic of Congo. This “pact of peace with nature” called “Kunming-Montreal agreement” aims to protect lands, oceans and species from pollution, degradation and the climate crisis.

“Countries have agreed on a roadmap that includes protecting 30% of the planet by 2030 and unlocking $30 billion in annual conservation aid for developing countries. The agreement has been adopted,” said Huang Runqiu, the Chinese president of COP15, during a plenary session organized in the middle of the night, before dropping his hammer to the applause of the tired-looking delegates.

“Together, we have taken a historic step,” welcomed Steven Guilbeault, Minister of the Environment of Canada, host country of the summit.

Protected areas

But the text also gives guarantees for indigenous peoples, guardians of 80% of the remaining biodiversity on Earth, proposes to restore 30% of degraded lands and to halve the risk linked to pesticides. And to try to resolve the financial question still burning between North and South, China also proposes to reach “at least 20 billion dollars” in annual international aid for biodiversity by 2025 and “at least 30 billion by 2030”.

In exchange for their efforts, the least developed countries demanded from the rich countries 100 billion dollars a year. That is at least 10 times the current international aid for biodiversity.

In addition to subsidies, the countries of the South also strongly pushed for the creation of a global fund dedicated to biodiversity - a matter of principle - like the one obtained in November to help them deal with climate damage.

On this point, China proposes as a compromise to establish from 2023 a branch dedicated to biodiversity within the current Global Environment Facility (GEF), the current functioning of which is considered very deficient by the least developed countries. .

This COP15, twin sister, in the shadow, of the COP on the climate, is “our chance to stop this orgy of destruction”, declared the UN Secretary General.

The stated ambition was heard to seal an agreement as historic as that of Paris for the climate in 2015.

It remains to refine and perfect the financing mechanisms while ensuring their primary mission: to finance the protection of biodiversity in a stable and sustainable manner.

CHINA ACTS THE END OF ITS ZERO COVID STRATEGY. WHAT ABOUT CHINESE IMMUNITY ?

Since December 7, 2022, it is now backtracking. Other countries, including Australia, New Zealand and Singapore, had also sought to completely eliminate Covid from their territory at the start of the pandemic, but all had finally abandoned this approach. The growing social and economic costs had become unsustainable, as had the efforts required… in the face of the realization that the local elimination of Covid could only be temporary, notes.Francois Balloux, Chair Professor, Computational Biology, UCL.

In the People's Republic of China, the health strategy which relied on measures such as mass PCR testing, the closure of entire cities and provinces or the quarantine of anyone who may have been exposed to the virus, is at turn become impossible to hold.

The harshness and often arbitrary application of zero Covid has fueled growing fatigue and resentment among the population, which has recently resulted in large public demonstrations.

Restrictions have also shown their limits against Omicron: less severe but more transmissible, this variant has a shorter incubation period than previous SARS-CoV-2 lines, and it largely bypasses the protection against infection conferred by the original vaccines.

It is understandable that the Chinese authorities are now finally taking steps to ease the restrictions… However, the exit from a zero Covid policy has been painful for all the countries that have made it. And China will be no exception, it even faces unique challenges in this transition.

Low immunity of the Chinese population

China's strict control over its population has enabled it to prevent a general transmission of Covid to all of its (huge) territory since the beginning of 2020 – which is a feat. The nearly 10 million cases reported to the World Health Organization in the past three years (figures differ depending on the source) represent only a tiny fraction of its 1.412 billion population. But this achievement has the unfortunate consequence that its population has only acquired minimal immunity to Covid through exposure to the virus.

What about vaccine immunity ?

Vaccination rates in China are comparable to those in Western countries…

But they show an unusual characteristic: they decrease with age. While they are most at risk of severe forms of Covid, the elderly are thus the least vaccinated demographic group with only 40% of people over 80 having received three doses.

Another point: the effectiveness of vaccines against transmission has been severely tested, especially since Omicron began to spread at the end of 2021. However, the protection against the most severe forms and death provided by vaccines to mRNAs used by Western countries remained solid.

But China has used vaccines different from its design, called "inactivated", manufactured by the companies Sinovac and Sinopharm. This type of vaccine is based on pathogens (in this case SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for Covid-19) which are killed, or inactivated, before their inoculation.

While these vaccines are generally safe, they tend to elicit weaker immune responses than newer technologies – such as those employed in mRNA (Pfizer and Moderna) or adenoviral vector (AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson) vaccines.

The performance of Chinese vaccines has thus been mixed. While two doses of the Sinovac vaccine appear to have reduced deaths by 86% in Chile, the results in Singapore suggest less protection against severe forms than their mRNA equivalents.

Admittedly, the Omicron variant (via its many sub-variants), dominating worldwide, is associated with a significantly lower disease severity and mortality rate than the Delta variant that it replaced… But it remains a threat major for populations with low immunity, in particular the elderly.

At the start of 2022, Hong Kong faced similar problems to mainland China, with low prior exposure of its population to the virus. Hong Kong even had even lower vaccination rates for the elderly than China currently has, but a stronger healthcare system.

Yet the Omicron wave that swept through the megalopolis in March 2022 resulted in more cumulative deaths per million people in a matter of days than many countries have seen during the entire pandemic…

Covid infections are now increasing rapidly in China, exceeding 30,000 new daily cases at the beginning of December (to fall below 9,000 these days, due to the end of systematic PCR tests: beware, these figures are no longer significant, the individuals no longer necessarily informing the authorities of the results of self-tests carried out at home, editor's note).

With the easing of restrictions and the shutdown of the main travel tracking application, there is no doubt that the increase in infections will continue.

Given the low level of immunity in China, a sharp increase in the number of cases could likely lead to a large number of hospitalizations and lead to a dramatic number of deaths.

If we assume that 70% of the Chinese population is infected in the next few months, and that 0.1% of those infected die (a conservative estimate of the mortality rate of omicron in a population with low exposure to SARS-CoV- 2), a simple calculation suggests that the number of deaths could be close to one million. A model from Fundan University (Shanghai) arrived at a figure of 1.55 million.

At this point, there is little China can do to prevent a significant number of cases and deaths. Any vaccination campaign that focuses on the most vulnerable people, however, is still likely to be beneficial.

Chinese health services are quite fragile and the shortage of intensive care beds represents a particular vulnerability. A gradual lifting of restrictions as other countries have done is one option to try to "flatten the curve" and prevent its health system from being overwhelmed. Effective referral of patients, including ensuring that only those most in need of care are admitted to hospital, could help reduce the number of deaths if the epidemic explodes.

A vulnerable population

A major wave of Covid in China will not necessarily have a significant impact on the global situation. SARS-CoV-2 lineages that are currently spreading in the country, such as BF.7 (which transmits faster and with a shorter incubation period and greater ability to infect than other Omicron variants; with a number of people infected in the absence of transmission control measures by an infected individual, or R0, of 10 or more), are already found elsewhere in the world.

Moreover, circulation in a population with little immunological protection should not exert significant additional pressure on the virus to the point that it must develop new variants to continue to spread.

But for China itself, the situation is different. It could face a possible humanitarian disaster, and that is a much bigger challenge.

The Chinese authorities were the first to take unprecedented measures to halt the spread of the virus and to champion it, providing the planet with a drastic model for managing the pandemic. China then applied these measures more ruthlessly and for longer than any other major country.

Particularly effective at first, the zero Covid policy turns out to be, in the long term, almost "futile" in the face of the adaptability of SARS-CoV-2.

While its population has been spared more than many others and is therefore less immunologically protected, China is now caught up in the social and economic costs of this strategy. And the virus will continue to spread, as it has everywhere else.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.

COP 15 ON BIODIVERSITY

THE URGENCY OF AMBITIOUS PROJECTS AND FUNDING

The meeting seems crucial: none of the previous objectives relating to the 2010-2020 period has been achieved and the pressure on natural environments continues to increase. Species are disappearing at an unprecedented rate, more than a million are threatened with extinction and 75% of the earth's surface has already been altered by humans.

The UN conference on biodiversity opens in Montreal with a colossal challenge: to conclude in two weeks a historic agreement, the "last chance" to save species and natural environments from irreversible destruction. Delegates from more than 190 countries meet until December 19 to adopt a new ten-year global framework to safeguard nature and its resources essential to humanity.

Time is running out: a million species are threatened with extinction, a third of the land is seriously degraded and fertile soils are disappearing, while pollution and climate change are accelerating the degradation of the oceans.

“Humanity has become a weapon of mass extinction”, thundered the UN Secretary General on Tuesday, during the raising of the curtain for the summit, because of “our unlimited appetite for uncontrolled and unequal economic growth”.

This COP15, twin sister, in the shadow, of the COPs on the climate, is “our chance to stop this orgy of destruction”, he declared. But negotiations have been stalling for three years. It is a question of concretizing an agreement of about twenty objectives, the main one of which aims to protect 30% of the lands and seas. Others provide for the restoration of natural environments, the reduction of pesticides, the fight against invasive species, or the conditions for sustainable fishing and agriculture.

“Humanity has become a weapon of mass extinction, because of our boundless appetite for uncontrolled and unequal economic growth,” Antonio Guterres, UN Secretary General

“Ultimate straight line”

"This summit is a chance that the world must not miss, probably the last for governments to turn the tide and save our precious life support system," WWF Advocacy Officer Bernadette Fischler Hooper said on Tuesday.

“We are in the final straight line, and it is time for everyone to take a step forward, this is becoming crucial,” said Tuesday the boss of the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), Inger Andersen, visibly preoccupied.

100 billion per year

But the summit, chaired by China and moved to Canada due to Beijing's zero Covid policy, is taking place without the support of world leaders, who nevertheless came in large numbers to the climate COP in Sharm-el-Sheikh in November. It is therefore the Ministers of the Environment who will be responsible, from 15 December, for bringing the negotiations to a successful conclusion.

The stated ambition remains to seal an agreement as historic as that of Paris for the climate in 2015. But some fear "possibly deliberate strategies to provoke a scenario similar to Copenhagen", where the COP Climate had experienced a resounding failure in 2009, notes the NGO Avaaz.

To avoid this, countries must agree on measurable and monitored targets, so as not to repeat the failure of the previous framework, adopted in 2010 in Aichi, Japan. Funding from rich countries to developing countries will also be a decisive point. A southern coalition has called for at least $100 billion a year for biodiversity, as much as for the climate, and $700 billion a year by 2030.

Some countries want to set up a fund dedicated to biodiversity, a proposal resisted by rich countries, which prefer to improve existing channels, in particular public development banks.

The thorny issue of biopiracy is also a source of blockages: many countries are demanding that rich countries finally share the benefits of cosmetics and medicines derived from resources conserved in the South.

"The cost of ecosystem degradation is estimated at 3,000 billion dollars per year by 2030", recalled Antonio Guterres.

The issue of funding

Tensions are crystallizing in particular around the question of the financing of the new global framework, an essential condition for the success of an ambitious agreement. The mobilization of all actors, public and private, is necessary.

This particularly concerns protected areas, a key instrument for the protection of biodiversity. Just to achieve the goal of safeguarding 30% of terrestrial and marine habitats by 2030, it is estimated that the financing needs of these areas will amount to between 149 and 192 billion dollars per year.

Faced with these considerable amounts, the experts indicate that it is necessary to create favorable ecosystems of financing making it possible to diversify the mechanisms and the sources. As such, several tools are of great interest and would benefit from being developed.

This is the case of Conservation Trust Funds which contribute, less through large volumes than through their continuous, stable and long-term action, to build this funding ecosystem. There are around a hundred of them currently in the world, eight of whom are supported by the French Development Agency and the French Fund for the Global Environment.

Profitable and stable

Conservation Trust Funds are private, legally independent institutions that aim to provide sustainable funding dedicated to conservation actions. They act like “life insurance contracts” for protected areas.

Thus, resources collected from international donors, States or private sector actors make it possible to generate a financial return via diversified investments on the capital markets. This is then donated in the form of subsidies to protected areas or to non-governmental organizations (NGOs) acting in favor of biodiversity. These funds thus complement the support already provided by the States and the resources drawn from tourism.

In Mauritania, for example, the Bacomab Fund has positioned itself in fishing agreements with the European Union. It has since benefited from a financial transfer linked to the service rendered by the Banc d'Arguin National Park, the main beneficiary of Bacomab, for the renewal of the halieutic resource.

Bacomab, in Mauritania, provides funding to the Banc d'Arguin National Park and its stakeholders who take care of fisheries resources.

These financing mechanisms, which appeared at the end of the 1990s, have multiplied and have continued to improve over the past thirty years, while ensuring their primary mission:

finance the protection of biodiversity in a stable and sustainable manner.

DESPITE THE REPRESSION OF THE MOLLAHS

THE THREE-DAY NATIONAL STRIKE MOVEMENT IN IRAN IS FOLLOWED

A call for a general strike was launched from this Monday and for three days, with the aim of paralyzing the country.

The anger does not weaken indeed in Iran....

And this, despite the decision of the Iranian authorities to suppress the Gasht-e Ershad, the much maligned morality police responsible for the arrest of the young Mahsa Amini on September 13, 2022.

Movement widely followed....

In Tehran, an undetermined but fairly large number of stores have been closed since Monday, December 5, 2022.

In Narmak, people chanted "we did not give deaths for compromises and bowing down in front of an assassin of guide".

In Ekbatan, people chanted "down with the dictator, down with the IRGC" and "this is the year of sacrifice, we will overthrow Seyed Ali [Khamenei]", while protesting and lighting a street fire.

At the Towhid metro, people chanted “Khamenei assassin, his regime is illegitimate” and at the Chariati metro, they chanted “this is the last message, the whole system is targeted”.

On the Niyaech highway, the young people shouted at Khamenei “you are the assassin and the mercenary”,'' one can read in the press of NCRI Iran.

According to videos shared on the networks, the situation is identical in several provincial cities, in particular Shiraz and Isfahan.

In the cities of Iranian Kurdistan the movement seems even more followed.

On the 81st day of the uprising, there are nocturnal demonstrations in Tehran and in the provinces, bazaar strikes in 45 sectors of Tehran and 85 cities, strikes in 34 universities...

End of the morality police in Iran: real setback or window dressing ?

The Tehran regime wanted to calm the protest, which has been going on for almost three months in Iran:

the Iranian public prosecutor announced, on Saturday December 3, the abolition of the morality police at the origin of the arrest of the young Mahsa Amini,

This declaration, perceived as a gesture towards the demonstrators, came after the decision of the authorities to revise a 1983 law on the compulsory wearing of the veil, imposed four years after the Islamic revolution of 1979.

Mahnaz Shirali, the author of Window on Iran, the cry of a gagged people (ed. Les Pérégrines) warns against a declaration which "is not an announcement in good and due form", "The announcement of the suppression of the morality police which was made by the Attorney General Mohammad Jafar Montazeri is not a formal announcement.

For the morality police to be abolished, a law would have had to be passed by the Iranian Parliament.

There, the subject is evoked in an ambiguous way.

This announcement is more intended to "deceive the international community", a gesture of communication vis-à-vis the West, more than an outstretched hand to the demonstrators.

Hence the continuation of the movement.

Besides, the women demand the abolition of the Islamic Republic, and not the simple abolition of the morality police.

Moreover, it is not only a question of feminist demands, for the cause of women, but also of social and economic demands, the people being starving.

But beyond the unprecedented call for a general strike, "we are more on a kind of civil disobedience", according to an expert, organizing such a movement in Iran is not a simple thing, since trade unions do not exist in the country.

The call for a strike is therefore circulating on social networks without anyone knowing who is behind it.

"It's done on purpose not to give clues about the movement to the regime, we are more on a kind of civil disobedience", explains Farid Vahid, the director of the Observatory for North Africa and the Middle East. at the Jean Jaurès Foundation.

From university students, to merchants in the Grand Bazaar in Tehran, a real barometer of dissatisfaction in Iran, to workers in refineries and teachers: all are called upon to not work for three days.

The mobilization in the big cities will be particularly scrutinized, as will that of the workers.

If we see large mobilizations in the big cities or workers in the petrochemical sector not working, this means that we are entering another phase of the movement. That of blocking the country to really enter into a revolutionary logic”, adds Farid Vahid.

This strike is not without risk for the organizers.

After the demonstrations by women, who are more and more numerous to abandon the wearing of the veil, even taking several hundred thousand people to the streets would be one more affront to the Mullahs.

The ruthless repression of the mullahs.

The head of the Iranian Judicial Authority affirmed, faced with the closed bazaars, that the "rioters" the name used to designate the demonstrators, threatened the traders to force them to close.

However, the regime has a weapon of massive deterrence: repression.

It has already claimed at least 300 victims since the start of the uprising, according to figures provided by Tehran.

Faced with the strike that is paralyzing Iran, the local press denounces the action of "rioters" and "Zionists"

While Iran lives its second day of general strike, the local press insists on the failure of its implementation and echoes original ideas to end the revolt, such as blocking the bank account of bareheaded women

"No to the forced strike" title on the front page of the state media Hamshahri ("Citizen"), on the second day of the general mobilization which is shaking Iran.

"The anti-revolutionaries [opposing the 1979 Iranian revolution, editor's note] have again been humiliated, their threat to strike has been futile," says this daily, the largest in the country with its 400,000 copies, photo d an open and bustling bazaar in one.

“While anti-revolutionary figures and media have mobilized all their resources in recent days to call for nationwide rallies and strikes, between 14 and 16 Azar [Persian calendar month], investigations Field reports in different cities, particularly in Tehran, indicate that the call for riots met with resounding failure from day one.”

In this context of protest, the head of justice announced that the death sentence of certain troublemakers linked to the foreign intelligence services, in particular Israelis, in particular those who had committed assassinations with weapons, had been confirmed and will be applied. very soon.

Already four people have been executed on Sunday for the same reasons.

Described as "thugs", they were executed by hanging for destruction of public property and kidnapping.

According to Iranian media, these four individuals were also found guilty of links with the Israeli intelligence services.

A protest movement suppressed in the blood but which would grow...

ZERO COVID POLICY PUSHES CHINESE

TO DEMONSTRATE "XI JINPING RESIGNATION !"

A rare occurrence in China, where the actions of citizens are constantly watched, demonstrations against health rules and confinements have multiplied in recent days. Whether it is the iPhone factory in Urumqi, where confinement has been imposed on employees, universities in Beijing or other cities in the country, anger is mounting against the regime and its decision to prosecute whatever happens its "zero covid" policy.

Anger is mounting in China over the draconian “zero Covid” policy practiced by the government for nearly three years. China is indeed tirelessly pursuing a zero Covid health policy, which involves strict confinements, quarantines for those diagnosed positive and almost daily PCR tests, provoking growing anger from the population. Students and workers are sometimes confined for many weeks to campuses or production sites, without the possibility of moving freely.

Call for "Xi Jinping, resign !" »

“We don't want PCR tests, we want freedom. According to a correspondent in Beijing for the German media Die Zeit, protests against the “zero Covid” policy and its strict restrictions continue. Protests erupted this morning in several cities across the country, including Shanghai, where demonstrators called for the resignation of President Xi Jinping.

Shanghai

A video widely circulated on the internet and geolocated in Shanghai by a news agency shows some protesters shouting "Xi Jinping, resign!" and also go after the Chinese Communist Party. To commemorate the victims of a fire that killed ten people Thursday in Urumqi, the capital of Xinjiang, in the West.

This is a very rare demonstration of hostility against the president and the regime in the economic capital of the country, subjected at the beginning of the year to an exhausting two-month confinement. In Shanghai, the police intervene to try to disperse the demonstrators, report on Twitter the journalists whofollow the situation. Our correspondent in Shanghai tweets images as well as testimonies collected in these unprecedented demonstrations, in a country which severely represses any protest. On Twitter, a Taiwan-based DW and Guardian correspondent gives voice to people protesting in Shanghai against government restrictions and its “zero Covid” policy. “Imagine who can accept not being allowed to leave the house for four months, with no food, no medicine for the chronically ill, and a woman in labor hemorrhaging in front of the hospital because she has no PCR test result ? »

“Imagine who can accept not being allowed to leave their home for four months, without food, without medicine for people who suffer from chronic illnesses, and a woman who gives birth and hemorrhages outside the hospital because she has no not the result of his PCR test? Or people dying on a bus that takes them to quarantine ? »

In Beijing, several hundred students demonstrate

Several hundred students from the prestigious Tsinghua University in Beijing took part in a demonstration on Sunday against the policy to fight against Covid-19.

Other cities concerned

Videos on social media have also shown a large vigil at the Institute of Communications in Nanjing, where participants also held up sheets of white paper, as well as small gatherings in Xian, Wuhan and Guangzhou, but the authenticity of these images could not be verified Protests also broke out in Wuhan, against the “zero Covid” policy

#CHINA “I'm heading home now. Just want to add how amazing this is. Never seen anything like this in the decade that I report on China. The anger seems too much to crack down on. Wonder what happens next. »

#CHINA “I want to emphasize that what is happening is incredible. It's the first time I've seen this in 10 years that I've covered China, ”said a journalist from the Dutch media Trouw, on Twitter, last night.

An anger born in Urumqi

These rallies follow in the footsteps of the spontaneous rally that took place at dawn on Sunday in Wulumuqi Street, the Mandarin name of the city of Urumqi in Xinjiang, where ten people died three days earlier in a fire. A fire which fed the anger of the inhabitants against the sanitary measures, since the authorities are accused of having increased the human toll by having imposed a confinement of the building and by hindering the arrival of help. Then in the afternoon, hundreds of people demonstrated in silence in the center of the city, brandishing white flowers and sheets of white paper, which had become a symbol of protest against censorship, before being dispersed by the police.

Large protests also broke out on Wednesday (November 23) at the world's largest iPhone manufacturing plant, owned by Taiwanese subcontractor Foxconn, according to videos and photos posted on social media Weibo and Twitter. Always in question the containment. The Taiwanese company, Apple's main subcontractor, has indeed been confronted in recent months with an increase in Covid-19 cases at its Zhengzhou site, prompting it to take containment measures. Nicknamed "iPhone City", this huge industrial site typically employs some 200,000 people, most of whom reside on site in dormitories. First images circulating on social networks show a crowd of workers parading in a street during the day; some face a line of people in white coveralls and riot police. The #RiotsFoxconn hashtag appeared to be censored midday Wednesday on Chinese social media. A few posts referring to the protests, however, remained online.

In a statement, Foxconn confirmed on Wednesday that "violence" took place at its factory. The Taiwanese group acknowledged workers had complained about wages and working conditions at the factory, but denied accommodating new hires with coronavirus-positive staff. "Regarding any violence, the company will continue to communicate with employees and the [Chinese] government to prevent similar incidents from happening again," he said.

These events are proof that the anger has spread across the country, after almost three years of living under ultra-strict measures against the virus.

After three years of a zero Covid strategy applied with the greatest firmness in China, weariness is turning to exhaustion, and frustration, sometimes to anger. The consequences of this ultra-strict approach are felt as much on the daily life of most Chinese as on the economy (the International Monetary Fund forecasts growth in 2022 at 3.2%, the second lowest since 1977).

"Concentration of Power"

On November 11, the National Health Commission announced an attempt to ease restrictions related to Covid-19, specifying that it was “not a relaxation of prevention and control”. If a part of the population, in particular the inhabitants of the countryside and the oldest, continues to adhere to this approach which has made it possible to avoid hundreds of thousands of deaths, the absence of prospects weighs on the morale of the youngest.

In the broadcasts of the Football World Cup, the Chinese are discovering that they are the only ones in the world who have not made any progress in the fight against covid for three years. An exasperation which now translates into repeated demonstrations.

“Unheard of since 1989 and the Beijing Spring which ended in bloodshed. It's spontaneous and unorganized, the only form of action possible in China," commented Pierre Haski, president of Reporters Without Borders (RSF).

The lack of economic opportunities, but also of travel, leisure, freedom in general, leads a growing number of Chinese to dare to address political issues, usually avoided in everyday conversations. The confirmation of Xi Jinping for a third term as General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), at the organization's 20th congress in mid-October, only accentuated the trend: on October 23, the Chinese leader unveiled a team made up exclusively of faithful.

IRAN AYATOLLAH KHAMENI JUDGES THAT :

THE MAIN ENEMY IS WORLD ARROGANCE

The Iranian authorities continue to denounce the demonstrations triggered on September 16 by the death of Mahsa Amini. And consider that these are “riots” encouraged by the West, in particular by the United States.

“The problem is not four rioters in the street, even if each rioter, each terrorist must be punished (...). The battlefield is much larger. The main enemy is global arrogance,” said Ali Khamenei, referring to Washington and his allies.

Resentment towards the United States

The highest figure in the Iranian state made this statement, broadcast by state television, when he received a delegation of young paramilitaries in Tehran on Saturday November 27, 2022, on the occasion of Bassidji week. This militia is in charge of the country's internal security, a morality police rightly decried by the Iranians since the beginning of the demonstrations.

“Some people tell us in the newspapers or on the internet that all you need to do to put an end to the unrest, which started a few weeks ago, is to solve your problem with America and listen to the voice of the nation,” he said. he throws.

“How to solve the problem with America? Will the problem be solved by sitting down, negotiating and getting a commitment from America? “, he then asked?

" Nope. Bargaining won't solve anything. Our problem with America can only be solved by accepting to be held to ransom by this country,” he said.

According to Ali Khamenei, the United States demands, in order to put an end to hostilities, that Iran abandon its nuclear program, change the Constitution, confine its influence within its borders and close its defense industries. “No Iranian can accept such conditions,” he stressed.

The Bassidji also supported by the president

The Ayatollah of Iran also attacked those who say that we must “listen to the voice of the nation”. “The enormous voice of the nation resounded on November 4 (in pro-government demonstrations), or during the funeral of (General Qassem) Soleimani. This huge crowd was the voice of the Iranian nation,” he said.

This Iranian general was killed in Baghdad in a drone strike led by the United States, in a period of heightened tensions between Washington and Tehran.

On Saturday, on the occasion of Bassidji week, President Ebrahim Raisi for his part visited a unit of these forces in Tehran, the Tasnim agency said. "You had a brilliant performance in the fight against the rioters," he argued to the members of this unit.

In three days, Iran and the United States will face each other on a completely different ground, that of the World Cup. In Doha, the Iranian players did not lack the courage to denounce the repression in their country. In their first game against England, the team decided not to sing the national anthem. Staying in Iran, another Iranian footballer was however arrested Thursday by the regime for "propaganda", just after a Foolad Khouzistab training session

“If the nation rises, we will all be thrown into the sea”…..

Faced with the extent of the protest throughout the country, the mullahs only know how to use repression, denial, and the designation of an external agent as an enemy to stay in power, because it is their life. Ayatollah Javadi Amoli, Friday preacher in the great city of Qom is fully aware of this: “If the nation rises up, we will all be thrown into the sea”…..

The Iranian population is rising... especially since the economic situation is catastrophic. Inflation and unemployment have risen almost steadily over the past 40 years. The supreme guide acknowledged, in 2019, that he had never aimed to improve the lives of his fellow citizens, but to maintain the Islamic Republic. The population is exasperated.

Death sentences...

Ultra-conservative President Ebrahim Raïssi called on the police to "react firmly". Faced with the scale of the mobilization, the head of the Iranian judiciary, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, threatened to show "no leniency" vis-à-vis the demonstrators. In ten days, more than a hundred people were killed according to Iran Human Rights and hundreds arrested. A Tehran court has already sentenced to death a person found guilty of "burning down a government building, disturbing public order, gathering and conspiring to commit a crime against national security, being an enemy of God and corruption on earth".

Iranian justice has also pronounced a second death sentence in three days against a "rioter", announced Mizan Online, the agency of the Judicial Authority. In the same trial, a Revolutionary Court sentenced another person to death accused of "terrorizing people in the street using a bladed weapon, burning a citizen's motorcycle and attacking an individual with a knife,” the Mizan Online agency said on Tuesday evening. “The accused is an enemy of God for having used bladed weapons,” according to the verdict. Five other people were sentenced to five to 10 years in prison for “gathering and conspiring to commit crimes against national security and disturbing public order”.

It is that the characteristic of the Islamic Republic is the simultaneous use of the apparatus of a modern State and the religious ideology to establish its authority, to fight the dissensions and to control the women. What the population no longer supports!

For Farid Wahid, director of the Observatory of North Africa and the Middle East of the Jean-Jaurès Foundation, these protests are the result of years of "economic, political and social frustration". “It is a strong, symbolic movement, which scares the regime. The Iranian authorities have received a very hard blow, taboos are broken, Iranians are done with the systematic linking of politics and religion. The situation is so catastrophic that these young people are ready to die to change things. Mahsa Amini's death was the spark that caused the explosion,” he adds.

From revolt to revolution, all the ferments are united for the revolution, according to researcher Gérard Vespierre.

THE "ZERO COVID" STRATEGY FAILED

THE CLOSURE IN BEIJING

RESTAURANTS AND SCHOOLS

Beijing reported a record number of Covid-19 cases in nearly three years on Tuesday, November 22, an increase that prompted authorities to order schools and restaurants to close, while many employees are called to work from at their home.

The capital of 22 million inhabitants, which had recorded 621 new local cases on Sunday, recorded 1,438 on Tuesday, a record since the start of the pandemic. Nationwide, the total number of daily cases, including imported cases, has now exceeded 28,000, with southern Guangdong Province and southwest Chongqing City being the most affected, according to health authorities.

New variants and first deaths since May

China is the last major world economy to apply a strict health policy, known as zero Covid, which aims to do everything to prevent contamination and death. It consists of imposing confinements as soon as cases appear, quarantines for people who test positive and almost daily PCR tests for the population. Following central government announcements, several cities had however announced the end of daily Covid tests. We have seen PCR kiosks in the streets close, including in Beijing. Then the test stations reopened. Same thing in Shijiazhuang, the capital of Hebei which surrounds Beijing. Here too, in this pilot city for the optimization or adjustment of “zero Covid” measures, massive tests have returned, as well as partial confinements.

China, however, is no longer in last year's "broad spectrum" lockdowns. The confined report that their tower is locked and that they must stay at home, because there is a positive resident a few floors higher or lower.

This temporary strengthening of health restrictions is linked to the first three deaths from Covid-19 since Saturday, among elderly people in Beijing and the first official deaths for six months in China. But it is above all linked to this epidemic outbreak at the end of autumn in several Chinese megalopolises, i.e. more than 26,800 new cases throughout the territory on Sunday, 594 new infections in the capital: we are almost back to the peaks of last April.

The capital's authorities seem to want to avoid strict confinement for the moment like the one applied in Shanghai in the spring, but have however reinforced health measures in recent days. Nearly 600 areas of the capital, including residential buildings, are considered "high risk", forcing their inhabitants to remain confined to their homes or to be transported to quarantine centers.

Zero Covid policy in default ?

Schools have switched to online classes, restaurants, gyms, parks and tourist sites have been closed and employees are being asked to work from home. In the streets, queues in front of Covid-19 test booths are getting longer, with most public places now requiring a negative result within 24 hours to enter.

But this strategy, initially effective in stemming the spread of the virus, seems to be running out of steam in the face of new variants and is dealing a severe blow to the economy, isolating China from the rest of the world and causing strong weariness among the Chinese.

COP27 FIASCO WHICH ONLY LEADS TO

CLIMATE FINANCING

The countries gathered at the climate conference in Sharm el-Sheikh (November 6-18, 2022) reached an agreement on the issue of climate finance, via the creation of a fund “for loss and damage”. In its final decision, COP27 thus opens up the prospect of expanding financial transfers from rich countries to less advanced countries.

Arm wrestling between the North and the South

With this question of financing at the center of the negotiations, the COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh promised a showdown between the North and the South. It did not thwart the forecasts and Africa, strongly represented (with 2.3 times more delegates than in 2021), gave voice to it.

"Loss and damage in vulnerable countries can no longer be ignored even if some developed countries had decided to ignore our suffering," said young Ugandan activist Vanessa Nakate.

Financing the irreversible damage of climate change caused by the countries of the North:

Pakistan has taken the leadership of these countries of the South which contribute very little to global warming, but which are already suffering major impacts. They demand means to compensate for the irreversible damage of this climate change.

Pakistan, in particular, has borne the brunt of global warming this year. Pakistan flood damage amounts to $30 billion

Pakistan was indeed affected by terrible floods between June and September. A third of the country was flooded after heavy rains. More than 30 million people have been directly affected and several million have had to flee, according to Imran Saqib, policy director for WWF Pakistan. "Most are still on the road and have nowhere to return, with problems accessing drinking water and sanitation," he said. 1,700 people were killed, 6,000 kilometers of roads were washed away and more than 1.5 million houses were destroyed or damaged, particularly in the country's most rural provinces, Sindh and Balochistan. Added to this is the problem of harvests: "many crops, such as cotton and sugar cane, have been affected", points out Imran Saqib.bad for future harvests.

What about emerging countries ?

This polarization of debates between rich and less advanced countries should not, however, make us forget the crucial role of emerging countries (China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, etc.) in confronting global warming. This group of countries controls more than 60% of global greenhouse gas emissions. It is on him that the decrease in these emissions depends in the first place.

Climate finance, a dispute with multiple causes

At the instigation of the United States, the developed countries promised in 2009 to transfer at least 100 billion dollars per year from 2020 to developing countries for the mitigation and adaptation to climate change.

In 2015, the promise was enshrined in the Paris Agreement. In 2020, the account was not there (83 billion according to the OECD). And it shouldn't be before 2023, according to the Climate Finance Delivery Plan.

A second bone of contention concerns the interpretation of Article 8 of the Paris Agreement on the concerted approach to “loss and damage” caused by global warming. The less developed or island countries, heavily impacted, claim transfers under what they call the “climate debt” of the rich countries, coming up against a front of refusal so far.

Less advanced countries do not have access to the sometimes substantial financing that certain emerging countries can obtain for the conversion of their energy infrastructures. South Africa and Indonesia, for example, have respectively obtained 8.5 and 20 billion dollars to accelerate the exit from coal within the framework of partnerships with developed countries.

Litigation is finally fueled by the recent worsening of fuel poverty and food insecurity in the world.

The year 2022 is likely to be the year of the first decline in several decades in the number of people with access to electricity. Today, the war in Ukraine combines with the recurrence of climatic shocks to increase the cost of basic foodstuffs which are becoming inaccessible for the poorest and are dramatically increasing hunger in the world, wiping out several decades of progress.

The expansion of funding

Hard won during the last two days of the conference, the final decision of COP27 will expand climate finance in three main ways.

First, COP27 endorsed the principle of a mechanism dedicated to the financing of loss and damage. It is a victory, imposed by the less developed countries and the island States which have broken the united front of the rich countries. It was facilitated by the mediation of the European Union, which is more open than the United States on the issue.

It remains to negotiate the details of the system, in particular the scope of donors (positioning of emerging countries?) and the rules governing access to this new financing.

Secondly, the countries have agreed to increase traditional climate financing, particularly that for adaptation, with an emphasis on agriculture to deal with food insecurity. This additional financing should make it possible to exceed the 100 billion promised in 2009.

Thirdly, the two mechanisms of article 6 on the carbon markets constitute a third source of financing. That concerning the States (article 6.2) can already be used, countries such as Japan and Switzerland being ready to finance emission reductions in other countries through this means.

It will be necessary to wait until 2024 for private actors to be able to access this type of market (article 6.4), which will facilitate the mobilization of private capital without which there can be no change in the scale of international climate financing.

The issue of 1.5°C has once again become a subject of debate

The inclusion of the objective of limiting global warming to 1.5°C relative to the pre-industrial era was a victory for the least developed countries and small island states which, in 2015 at COP21, made it a condition of their adherence to the Paris Agreement.

Paradoxically, the 1.5°C issue once again became a subject of debate when these countries obtained a second victory in the negotiations. According to some, 1.5°C would be unrealistic, even scientists say.

In all the climate scenarios analyzed in the 6th IPCC report published in 2021-2022, we reach a warming of 1.5°C within one to two decades, to then be slightly exceeded. This year, global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions generated by all human activities will have remained at record levels, according to a new analysis by the Global Carbon Project, an organization bringing together scientists from around the world. This year, global CO2 emissions from our operations are expected to reach 40.6 billion tonnes of CO2; which leaves us with a “remaining carbon budget” of 380 billion tonnes of CO2 to limit global warming to 1.5°C.

Humanity should therefore urgently reduce its emissions to be able to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change.

The international community has, however, failed to be more ambitious on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Just before the COP, the United Nations had however warned that as things stood, the climate commitments made by the States were leading to a rise in mercury of 2.4°C, far from the 1.5 degrees targeted by the Paris Agreement. .

But several countries, such as Saudi Arabia and China, have tried to remove this 1.5°C target, which they consider too restrictive.

This bad debate on 1.5°C has polluted discussions on mitigation actions.

Emerging countries hold the key to accelerating the decline in global emissions

The other failure recorded in Sharm-El-Sheikh concerns the phasing out of fossil fuels. No mention of the subject in the final declaration, while we are talking about the first cause of global warming. This is probably due to the impact of the energy crisis and the accompanying fears of shortages. But also the result of intense lobbying by producing countries.

However, if new funding is available, the deployment of carbon-free energy sources in less advanced countries will be able to accelerate, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa where investments in renewables have stalled for two years. We will then be in the scenario where all the conditional commitments made by the countries can be fulfilled.

Be that as it may, the key to accelerating the decline in global emissions by 2030 is held by emerging countries, which tend to be forgotten when discussing the sharing of responsibilities between North and South. More than 60% of global emissions are controlled by this group of countries, which no longer belong to the least developed countries without having joined the club of rich countries. However, these countries have generally not aligned their medium-term objectives with the neutrality target that they set for the long term. As soon as they do, the decline in global emissions will gain much faster momentum.

If COP27 removed a major obstacle to the acceleration of climate action by defusing the litigation that was accumulating on funding, it. on the other hand, did not bring any progress in resolutions that were nevertheless crucial. Many countries considered that the texts proposed by the Egyptian presidency constituted a step backwards on the commitments to regularly raise the level, made in Glasgow. "This COP has weakened the obligations for countries to present new and more ambitious commitments", regretted Laurence Tubiana, architect of the Paris agreements of 2015.

A radio-classical to conclude :

“This agreement in extremis is only a cover-up, the screen for one of the most conflictual COPs in history, marked by two very worrying setbacks. A screen that does not mask much, moreover, since it is a simple agreement in principle, the terms and contributors of which remain to be specified.

Suffice to say that the islands of the Pacific are not close to receiving the necessary aid for the construction of dikes to protect them from the rise in the level of the oceans. Rarely has the urgency been so great ".

CHALLENGES AND BELOW THE WORLD CUP 2022

IN QATAR

As a “rentier, oligarchic and clientelist” regime, Qatar has, as researcher Danyel Reiche explains, implemented a policy of soft power through sport. This, initiated in 1995 after the seizure of power by Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, was reinforced in 2008 by the Qatar National Vision 2030, a program aimed at both strengthening national security and guaranteeing maintaining the reigning family in power.

Already very controversial, the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, which officially begins this Sunday with Qatar - Ecuador at 5 p.m., is more than ever in the eye of the storm. In any case, the controversies accumulate dangerously around the organization of the most prestigious of competitions.

heated controversies

The years between the awarding of the competition (2010) – controversial and tainted by suspicions of corruption – and its organization were heatedly debated.

These controversies relate in particular to the cost of the work estimated at 200 billion dollars; on the ecological footprint of the event, although it will be the most compact World Cup geographically since the very first, organized in 1930 in Montevideo; on the working conditions on the construction sites, almost slave-like and the number of worker deaths, pointed out in particular by a survey by the Guardian…

Lack of respect for human and workers' rights

In the desert, it is indeed difficult to hear the voice of immigrant workers having worked on the construction sites of the Mondial. Despite some social progress highlighted by the Qatari authorities, NGOs denounce the lack of respect for human rights in the country. It is out of the question to speak openly about working conditions in the country. Manifest, don't even think about it. The last foreign workers who ventured there, in the streets of Doha at the end of August, inherited a one-way ticket to their country of origin, with no hope of returning.

Challenging the regime from within is simply impossible. In the radius of the accusations, a number comes up in a loop. Some 6,500 foreign workers have died in the host country since the event was awarded, according to a Guardian investigation published in February 2021. The NGO FairSquare went further. At the using the documents sent to the embassies of the nationals concerned, she was able to establish that 60% of the deaths were classified as "natural deaths" or "cardiac arrest", two hypotheses that are not very credible... Be that as it may, the candidates for the departure for Qatar are not lacking, especially in Southeast Asia. The large and modern houses built in the city, the businesses created by returning migrants are real incentives to leave in order to improve their social and economic status.

The British daily explains that these supporters, who were offered travel, accommodation and a place for the opening ceremony of the World Cup, were informed by the Qatari authorities that they would not receive their daily allowances. The bad image given off by this system put in place by Qatar seems to have motivated the organizing committee to backpedal.

This new revelation should further fuel the many criticisms around this 2022 World Cup, during which, against all odds, fans will not be able to consume alcohol around the stadiums.

The stadiums built especially for the World Cup which deploy innovative technologies. But behind the beautiful speeches of the organizers, their energy cost and their environmental impact raise questions.

The environmental cost

The Football World Cup, which opens this November 20 in Qatar, will broadcast to millions of enthusiasts the dazzling images of an abundance of energy at the wrong time.

Moved to winter to escape the extreme temperatures of this wealthy Middle Eastern emirate, the competition will take place in eight stadiums, seven of which have been built specifically to host the global event. So many "jewels of the desert" - this is also the nickname of one of them - firmly embedded in the story of a "sustainable" and "carbon neutral" World Cup, told by the organizers, the Fifa and the Qatar 2022 Supreme Committee. Jewels of technology assimilated by environmental associations to greenwashing. “How can air-conditioned stadiums be sustainable? Here is the rhetorical question posed on the official World Cup website.

Also communicating on a "carbon neutral" competition and highlighting the energy performance of the stadiums - even in the aisles of the COP26 - does it amount to "greening the packaging, when the whole product is problematic", sums up a researcher . Especially since, “in the Gulf countries, air conditioning is not a bad word. It is part of the way of life. “, notes another researcher: in Qatar, lowering the temperature inside accounts for 60 to 70% of the total electricity consumption of the country, noted in 2021 the Qatari newspaper The Peninsula.

Thus individual and collective behavior in the public space: local dress traditions require covering the body, even if a certain tolerance is granted to tourists, and demonstrations of affection in public clash with local cultural values ​​and are prohibited; as for the consumption of alcohol and drunkenness on the public highway, they are punishable by law. However, it is possible to obtain alcohol in some international restaurants and hotels, and FIFA has announced that it will be possible to obtain beer from the main sponsor in the fan zones three hours before and one hour after the matches.

On the other hand, homosexuality is not tolerated in Qatar. It falls under the law and those found guilty are liable to seven years in prison.

FIFA, however, assures that it is committed with Qatar to “guarantee the safety and warm welcome of all participants in the FIFA World Cup. This includes ensuring that law enforcement activities related to the FIFA World Cup are strictly necessary and proportionate. 

As has been the case at several international events that Qatar has hosted, individuals' privacy will be respected. »

While several captains announced that they would wear the rainbow armband in support of the LGBTQ+ community during the World Cup in Qatar (a country where homosexuality is prohibited and criminally punished), Hugo Lloris explained to him that he would not, preferring to respect the host country of the 2022 World Cup. There is no doubt that ostensible demonstrations would offend the nationals to the point of disturbing public order...

In Western countries, we hear much more criticism of the non-respect of human and workers' rights as well as the ecological consequences and intolerance of customs than popular fervor. But the objective is elsewhere for the emirate.

"Put Qatar on the world map"

“The economic viability of the World Cup does not enter into the considerations of the Qataris. It is a country that has very different economic standards from ours with a colossal gas windfall for a small number of inhabitants. The GDP per capita there is one of the highest in the world,” recalls Mathieu Llorca. And recalls the priority of the Emir Al-Thani and his father Emir before him: "to put Qatar on the map of the world". At any price. Which he partly succeeded.

A leading international player

“How did a “young” State – it has only been independent since 1971 – and devoid of any classic attribute of power, become in the space of a few years a leading international player, on which the spotlight of the world whole are robbed when it hosts the Football World Cup?, wonders Lama Fakih, doctor in contemporary history and international relations, lecturer at Saint-Joseph University in Beirut, whose analysis published in TheConversation we reproduce .

Fifty years ago, Doha was just a small fishing village. To understand the spectacular trajectory of Qatar, Qatar has employed, mainly the alliance with the great powers, the practice of "hedging" (an approach consisting in maintaining good relations with all the actors of the international community, ignoring the differences that some may have among themselves), and "niche diplomacy". If this foreign policy was primarily intended to secure the sovereignty of the emirate, it was quickly put at the service of an excessive quest for power, favored by a weakening of traditional leadership in the Arab world.

British protectorate from 1916 to 1968, Qatar – a small emirate on the Arabian Peninsula with an area of ​​11,571 km2 (about that of the Île de France, to give an order of comparison) and populated by some 2.5 million people today, barely 10% of whom are Qataris, the other residents being foreign workers – has only one land border, which is moreover controversial: with the immense Saudi Arabia, almost two hundred times larger . Qatar is somehow stuck between the two giants of Saudi Arabia and Iran.

After its independence in 1971, the country evolved for nearly 25 years in the shadow of Riyadh.

The first Gulf War, in 1990-1991, was a historic turning point for the Gulf countries. In particular, it will have a major impact on the relationship between Doha and Washington. With Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, Qatar realizes its own vulnerability and the ease with which one of its powerful neighbors could annex it. He considers the American security umbrella as the only real guarantee of survival. The US military base in Al-Udeid, Qatar, will be used extensively during Operation Enduring Freedom against the Afghan Taliban.

The country is gradually emerging as a privileged regional ally of the Americans – especially after the palace revolution of 1995, to which Washington undoubtedly gave its consent.

If Hamad Bin Khalifa Al Thani seeks above all to ensure the sovereignty of his country by relying firmly on the United States, he does not intend to bet everything on this alliance: Qatar is multiplying partnerships, to the point of asserting itself fairly quickly as a key player in the concert of nations. Indeed, Doha opts for a “hedging” policy, which consists of maintaining good relations with opposing players to reduce possible risks in the long term. 

This approach allows the “little ones” to gain influence to promote their political autonomy. Finally, Qatar is developing niche diplomacy, a preferred strategy for small states and medium-sized powers. Through niche diplomacy, Doha is forging a national brand image and international visibility.

SECOND DEATH SENTENCE IN IRAN

RELATED TO THE RIOTS

Second death sentence in Iran linked to the “riots” and 2000 charges filed.

Iranian justice pronounced Tuesday a death sentence against a "rioter", announced the press agency of the Judiciary Authority. This is the second such sentence in three days.

Iranian justice on Tuesday pronounced a second death sentence in three days against a "rioter", announced Mizan Online, the agency of the Judicial Authority.

Protests have been taking place in Iran since the death two months ago of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Kurd who was arrested for breaking a strict dress code that requires women to wear the Islamic veil in public.

The authorities denounce "riots" and hundreds of people have been arrested. On Sunday, a court in Tehran had already sentenced to death a person found guilty of "burning down a government building, disturbing public order, gathering and conspiracy to commit a crime against national security, to be an enemy of God and to corrupt on earth”.

“The accused is an enemy of God”

Five other people had also been sentenced to five to 10 years in prison for “gathering and conspiring to commit crimes against national security and disturbing public order”.

In the same trial, a revolutionary court condemned to death another person accused of having

"Terrorized people in the street using a bladed weapon, for having set fire to a citizen's motorcycle and attacked an individual with a knife," the Mizan Online agency reported on Tuesday evening.

"The defendant is an enemy of God for having used edged weapons", according to the verdict.

TERRORIST ATTACK IN ISTANBUL TURKEY

Istiklal Avenue, the city's busiest pedestrian thoroughfare, was packed with people and the sun gave off the air of an Indian summer. When the sound of an explosion sounded, at 4:20 p.m., right in the middle of the passage, at the intersection of the small Imam-Adnan street, between the Mango clothing store and the Mado ice cream parlor.

The explosion occurred around 4:20 p.m. (1:20 p.m. GMT), when the crowd was particularly dense in this popular walking spot on Sundays for Istanbulites and tourists.

According to videos broadcast by social networks, the explosion emits a powerful detonation, accompanied by flames, and immediately triggers a movement of panic. A large black crater is also visible in these images, along with several bodies on the ground nearby. Families with children in their arms tried to run away from the neighborhood.

Many victims

The attack killed six people and injured 81, including two seriously, according to a latest report, given this Sunday evening by Turkish Vice-President Fuat Oktay. A father and his young daughter lost their lives, said Derya Yanik, Minister of Family and Social Services. She was 9 years old, according to public television TRT and the daily Cumhuriyet.

A 38-year-old mother and her 15-year-old daughter, as well as a couple aged 27 and 40 also died in the attack, details the Turkish daily.

Reactions from the authorities

For fear of a second explosion, the area was completely evacuated. An imposing deployment of security forces also blocks all access. The police cordoned off access to Istiklal Street and adjacent streets, and helicopters flew over the city center where numerous sirens sounded. In the neighboring district of Galata, many shops have lowered their curtains.

Less than an hour after the events, the Turkish Audiovisual High Council banned the audiovisual media from broadcasting images of the scene to "prevent fear-mongering". In addition, access to social networks was restricted in Turkey after the attack, according to online restrictions monitor Netblocks.

The Suspects A Syrian Woman and the PKK

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan denounced, live on television, "a vile attack". “We consider this to be a terrorist attack due to the explosion of a bomb set off by an assailant,” said Fuat Oktay, the vice president.

While the latter had evoked a "suicide bomber" at first, the Minister of Justice, Bekir Bozdag, then evoked a "bag" placed on a bench. “A woman sat on a bench for 40 to 45 minutes and after a while there was an explosion,” he continued. “Either this bag contained a timer or someone activated it remotely,” he added.

“Let our people be sure that the perpetrators will be punished. Attempts to trap Turkey and the Turkish nation in terror will not be able to achieve their goal today or tomorrow, any more than they did yesterday,” promised Erdogan, who had already faced a campaign of terror in across the country in 2015-2016. Claimed in part by the Islamic State group, it had killed nearly 500 people and injured more than 2,000. "We will find those who are behind this attack, whoever it is, even if it goes to the other side of the world" promised Fuat Oktay.

Turkish Interior Minister Souleyman Soylu announced on Monday the arrest of 46 people, including some in Kucukcekmece, on the outskirts of Istanbul. Among them, a woman suspected of having planted the bomb and of Syrian nationality admitted the facts, confirmed the Turkish police. She would have declared to have acted on the orders of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and received directives in northeast Syria.

The city is famous for the battle that took place there and allowed Kurdish forces to repel the Islamic State (IS) group in 2015. It is controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), of which the People's Protection Units (YPG), allied to the PKK, are a major component.

The PKK, considered a terrorist organization by Ankara but also by its Western allies including the United States and the European Union, had since Sunday been accused of being behind the attack by the Turkish authorities. "Operations continue" to arrest other suspects, said the Minister of the Interior.

Turkey "rejected" this Monday morning the condolences of the United States which

“support the Kurdish terrorists” of Kobané, indicated Souleyman Soylu.

“We do not accept condolences from the United States. Our alliance with a state that maintains Kobané and pockets of terror (…) must be debated”, declared the minister, again questioning the PKK.

STRONG TENSIONS BETWEEN THE TWO KOREA'S AND MISSILE FIRING

Seoul military says it's 'the first time since the division of the peninsula' after fighting in the Korean War in 1953 that a North Korean missile has landed so close to southern territorial waters . Yoon "stressed that the North Korean provocation is a de facto territorial invasion by a missile that crossed the Northern Limit Line for the first time since the division" of the peninsula, the South Korean presidency said in a statement. a statement.

The missile that fell closest to South Korea landed in waters just 57 kilometers (35 miles) east of mainland South Korea, Seoul's military said, calling it "very rare and intolerable" the shooting of Pyongyang. “We declare that our army will respond decisively to this,” she added.

Soon after, the Seoul military reported firing three air-to-surface missiles near the spot at the sea border where the North Korean missile fell. The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff initially claimed to have identified a launch of three short-range ballistic missiles.

But he later announced that North Korea had launched "more than 10 missiles of different types towards the East and the West". President Yoon has called a meeting of the National Security Council over the launch, which analysts say is one of the most "aggressive and threatening" in several years. The South Korean president also ordered "swift and severe measures so that North Korea's provocations pay a heavy price". Japan has also confirmed the launch of North Korean missiles, with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida telling reporters he wants to "hold a national security meeting as soon as possible".

"Watchful Storm"

Seoul and Washington are currently holding the largest joint air exercise in their history, dubbed "Vigilant Storm", involving hundreds of warplanes from both armies. Pak Jong Chon, marshal and secretary of North Korea's ruling Workers' Party, called the drills aggressive and provocative, according to a report by North Korea's official press on Wednesday.

According to him, the name of these maneuvers echoes Operation "Desert Storm", the name given to the military operations of the coalition led by the United States against Iraq in 1990 and 1991 after the invasion of Kuwait.

"If the United States and South Korea try to use their armed forces against the (Democratic People's Republic of Korea) without fear, the special means of the DPRK armed forces will accomplish their strategic mission without delay," said Mr. Pak, according to state agency KCNA. "The United States and South Korea will face a terrible bargain and pay the most horrific price in history," Pak added.

Close to South Korea

The missiles fired by North Korea on Wednesday constitute "the most aggressive and threatening show (of force) against the South since 2010", Cheong Seong-chang, a researcher at the Sejong Institute, told AFP. "This is a dangerous and unstable situation which could lead to armed (clashes)," he added. In March 2010, a North Korean submarine torpedoed a South Korean corvette, the Cheonan, killing 46 sailors, 16 of whom were doing their compulsory military service.

In November of the same year, the North had bombed an island bordering South Korea, causing the death of two young soldiers. The North Korean missile launch on Wednesday comes after a series of launches, including what the North has called tactical nuclear exercises. Washington and Seoul repeatedly warn that Pyongyang could carry out a new nuclear test, which would be the 7th in its history.

"As long as I can remember, North Korea has never made such a provocation when South Korea and the United States were carrying out joint maneuvers," said Park Won-gon, a professor at Ewha University. .

"Pyongyang seems to have completed its strongest (measure of) deterrence. This is a serious threat. The North also seems confident in its nuclear capabilities."

DEADLY STRUGGLE IN SEOUL

FOR HALLOWEEN

WITH AT LEAST 140 DEAD AND 100 INJURED

At least 120 people died and a hundred others were injured in the night from Saturday to Sunday in a stampede during a Halloween party in central Seoul, we learned from an official source.

Dozens of people were treated for cardiac arrest in Seoul on Saturday (October 29th) during Halloween celebrations, South Korean firefighters said.

"As of 2:30 a.m. local time, 120 people were killed and 100 others injured," Choi Seong-beom, a fire official from the South Korean capital, told reporters at the scene of the disaster.

A fire department spokesman confirmed the incident, saying 140 ambulances had been dispatched to the scene to attend to the victims.

According to the Yonhap news agency, thousands of people were celebrating Halloween in the Itaewon district, and about 50 of them suffered a cardiac arrest.

The victims seem to have been caught in crowd movements in this district of the South Korean capital where Halloween celebrations bring together a large number of people.

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has asked hospitals to prepare to receive the injured.

Photographs released by Yonhap showed more than a dozen people lying in a street, with rescuers performing CPR on some of them, as police cordoned off the crowds.

According to video images, about twenty bodies were however covered with sheets or blankets, the rescuers not trying to resuscitate these people. Other victims were evacuated on stretchers to ambulances.

THE SECURITY FORCES OPEN FIRE ON THE FAITHFUL COME TO THE TOMB OF MAHSA AMINI

40 DAYS AFTER THE GRIEVANCE

Clashes took place on Wednesday, October 26, in the hometown of Mahsa Amini. “Security forces fired tear gas and opened fire at Zindan Square in Saqez city,” according to Hengaw. The group monitoring rights violations in the Kurdish regions of Iran did not say whether there were deaths or injuries.

As of Tuesday evening, the authorities had reinforced their device in Saghez, deploying forces in a central square. Access to the city would also have been blocked. According to human rights activists, the security forces had warned the young woman's parents against organizing a tribute ceremony at her grave, going so far as to threaten "the life of their son".

Despite tight security measures, columns of mourners had flocked to Saqez, in the province of Western Kurdistan, to pay their respects to Mahsa Amini at her grave, forty days after the death of the young woman.

"The Year of Blood"

Defying a reinforced security device, shouting "Woman, life, freedom" or "Death to the dictator", a crowd of men and women had gathered around the grave of the young woman in the Aichi cemetery in the city of Saghez, in the province of Kurdistan (west), according to videos posted on social networks. Worshipers began to join the cemetery early Wednesday.

Images posted online by activists and human rights defenders showed huge crowds, in cars and on motorbikes, walking through fields and along roads, or even crossing a river. Clapping, shouting, honking, the crowd invaded the road linking Saghez to the cemetery, eight kilometers away, according to images posted online by Hengaw, which this NGO said it had verified. "This year is the year of blood, Seyed Ali will be overthrown," a group shouted in an authenticated video, referring to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

In several cities of Kurdistan, “Sanandaj, Saghez, Divandarreh, Marivan and Kamyaran, strikes are widely followed”, according to Hengaw. Likewise in Javanrud and Ravansar, in the province of Kermanshah (west).

According to Hengaw, two figures in Iranian football, legendary striker Ali Daei and goalkeeper Hamed Lak, traveled to Saghez on the 40th day following the death of Mahsa Amini, marking the end of the traditional period of mourning in Iran.

They stayed at the Kurd Hotel, according to Hengaw, but "were transferred to the government guesthouse ... under the guard of the security forces".

This 22-year-old Iranian Kurd died on September 16, three days after her arrest in Tehran by the morality police who accused her of having violated the strict dress code of the Islamic Republic, imposing in particular the wearing of the veil for women.

His death sparked a wave of protests unprecedented for three years, which continues across Iran. Young women and schoolgirls took to the front line, many bareheaded, burning their veils and defying the security forces.

Iranian justice announced on Wednesday that it had charged more than 300 people, bringing the official number of charges related to these demonstrations to more than a thousand.

One of the most important protest movements in Iran since 1979

This protest movement against Iranian religious authorities is one of the largest since the Islamic revolution of 1979.

This movement, notably fueled so far by Iranian youth – with strikes in dozens of universities – could still gain momentum with the end of the period of mourning.

New US sanctions against Tehran

A THIRD TERM OR THE RECOGNITION

THE ALMIGHTY FOR XI JINPING

The Beijing strongman vowed to "work hard in fulfilling" his "tasks" immediately after being granted a third five-year term by a vastly revamped Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CCP). He thus becomes the most powerful leader since Mao Zedong, founder of the regime.

The highlight of this 20th Congress is the presentation of the new PCC Standing Committee this Sunday morning, the seven men who will lead the world's second-largest economy. And as tradition dictates, it was the president who arrived first on the red carpet, taking along his comrades, in particular Li Qiang, future Prime Minister. Behind him and the others, six dark suits and red ties on the strata of the golden salon, on the third floor of the People's Palace. Faces closed, arms along the body, almost at attention, the six silhouettes listened to the secretary general and number one of the Party make his speech.

We knew with the retirement of Prime Minister Li Keqiang and that of former President Hu Jintao, pushed out on Saturday, that there would only be the president's men on this committee. They are familiar figures, explains Xi Jinping while introducing them. He knew them partly when he was secretary of the Communist Party of Zhejiang, a province on the east coast of China, and then in Shanghai.

Its future Prime Minister, Li Qiang, is the boss of the Shanghai CCP which has the terrible reputation of having confined his city and its inhabitants for 3 months last year. In the Communist Party, loyalty takes precedence over popularity. This appointment is a sign of "an ever more proven headlong rush in ideology, in Xi Jinping's stubbornness", observes Chloé Froissart, sinologist and university political science professor at Inalco. “The zero covid policy will not be called into question”.

Beijing CPC General Secretary Cai Qi will handle the party's general affairs office. Li Xi, general secretary of the CCP in Guangdong province (south), was appointed to the party's disciplinary committee. It is a key post that oversees the anti-corruption campaign launched in 2012 by Xi Jinping to bring down the corrupt and his political opponents.

For young Zhao Leji, 65, Ding Xuexiang, who was the president's political aide, and Wang Huning, the regime's chief ideologue for three generations of leaders, they are all considered close to the CCP general secretary. The two big starters, Li Keqiang, outgoing Prime Minister, and Wang Yang, given a moment as new head of government, were both close to former President Hu Jintao and the Communist Youth faction. The holy of holies of the Chinese Communist Party, the supreme body, no longer has any potential opponent of China's number one Xi Jinping. Now held by Xi's closest allies, the new Standing Committee confirms Xi Jinping's stranglehold on the political formation, according to analysts.

“They are all men of Xi, it shows that he wants to govern beyond a third term”, therefore after 2027, underlines Alfred Wu Muluan, expert in Chinese politics at the National University of Singapore. Willy Lam, a CCP specialist at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, predicted “an abnormally asymmetrical domination by a single faction: that of Xi Jinping”.

No more than the standing committee, the political bureau, the decision-making body of the Chinese Communist Party, does not have a woman. A first in 25 years. The only woman who was part of this group of 25 people has retired and none of the new members unveiled this Sunday are women.

Evacuation of Hu Jintao

The only significant incident during a highly choreographed ceremony, former President Hu Jintao was escorted out on Saturday.

Visibly against his will, the 79-year-old, who served as China's president from 2003 to 2013, was pressured by employees to get up from his seat next to Xi Jinping. This very unusual scene has not been explained by the authorities.

The New China Agency said in English that Hu Jintao “did not feel well”. He is "much better" now, she wrote on Twitter, a social network blocked in China. Hu Jintao, who appeared physically weakened during the congress, is Xi Jinping's predecessor and is considered a reformer. Any recent reference to his name appeared to have been censored from the Chinese internet.

“China cannot develop without the world, and the world also needs China”

Despite an almost total concentration of power, Xi Jinping will have to face a sharply slowing economy, in particular due to his “zero Covid” policy, an exacerbated rivalry with the United States and international criticism of human rights.

During an address to the press after having obtained a third mandate at the head of the Communist Party and therefore of the country, Xi Jinping assured: "China cannot develop without the world, and the world also needs the China”.

The president hailed the “two miracles” achieved in the country: “rapid economic development and long-term social stability”.

In a decade at the head of the country, Xi Jinping has succeeded in making China the second largest economy in the world, with one of the most powerful armies in the world. The Head of State was also reappointed as head of the Central Military Commission. Within it, several of the newly promoted generals are part of the Taiwan Strait clique and are very belligerent and push for an invasion of the island. This confirms that Taiwan is a top priority for Xi Jinping's China.

The Great Nation Rebirth for 2049

Xi Jinping is leading the China ship and on the dais of the Golden Hall of the Great People's Palace he reiterated the objectives: "The construction of a modern socialist country and the march towards the great rebirth of the nation corresponds to a wish and a long wait, China's modernization is the result of the joint efforts of the Communist Party of China and the Chinese people."

The modernization of the country is therefore for 2035, the Great Renaissance of the nation is for 2049. From now on, nothing will prevent Xi Jinping from continuing in power.

And if China is to become a modern socialist country with an open economy, it is the people, and especially the Party, that take precedence over everything else in this modernization.

XI JINPING'S SPEECH AT THE XXTH CPC CONGRESS

CAN CHINA BECOME THE LEADING WORLD POWER ?

On the occasion of his opening speech at the Congress of the Communist Party, the President of the People's Republic of China reiterated on Sunday that the primary objective of the Party remains that of economic development, but that the security of the country must also guide the Party action. A speech largely devoted to domestic policy issues, delivered to some 2,300 party delegates, gathered in the huge People's Palace. The latter should entrust him in a week with a third historic mandate at the head of the country.

The opportunity for the undisputed master of Beijing to reaffirm his political firmness and show his desire to supplant the United States as the first world power.

"The use of force" on Taiwan ?

Xi Jinping does not intend to give in on Taiwan. While assuring that China had always "respected" and had always "cared" for the Taiwanese people, Xi Jinping showed determination to reunify "peacefully" what he considers to be one of his territories, although the Taiwanese leader, Tsai Ing-Wen, maintains her refusal to integrate into the Middle Kingdom. "The resolution of the Taiwan question is the business of the Chinese people, and it is up to the Chinese people to decide", hammered the leader of the People's Republic of China in front of the 2,300 CCP delegates present at the party congress. which opened on Saturday in Beijing. “The historic wheels of national reunification and national rejuvenation are rolling. Complete reunification of the homeland must be achieved. It will be done,” he added. To achieve his ends, the Chinese president does not rule out any recourse to "force", as these recent deterrent military maneuvers have suggested. “We will work with the greatest sincerity and the greatest efforts for the peaceful reunification ofTaiwan, but we will never promise to renounce the use of force and we reserve the option to take all necessary measures", confirmed Xi Jinping, while castigating any "separatism" and foreign "interference" in this conflict.

In September, US President Joe Biden assured that the United States would defend the island coveted by Beijing "if an unprecedented attack were to occur". After which, China denounced a "serious violation" of Washington's diplomatic promises.

The fight against global warming

It is precisely because of the tensions with the United States on the question of Taiwan that Beijing had announced the suspension on September 1 of its cooperation with the United States on global warming, tied in the corridors of the COP26, in Glasgow. . On Sunday, Xi Jinping, however, briefly mentioned the climate crisis, assuring that his country would "actively promote" the fight against global warming.

China is one of the biggest polluters in the world and the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases. In March 2021, the country published the details of its policy to reduce the share of carbon energies in its energy mix, promising to increase the share of renewable energies to 25% in 2025. According to a report by the think tank Carbon Tracker, published ahead of the Climate Conference, this rate had increased from 7% to 15% between 2009 and 2019.

"We will actively participate in global governance on climate change," said Xi Jinping, while committing to "strengthen the clean and efficient use of coal". The country, which aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, is highly dependent on this fossil fuel to power its power plants.

Its “zero Covid” policy

XI Jinping spoke of the “zero Covid” policy put in place by the country and reflected in the strengthening of social control over citizens, all of whose movements are now recorded by computer. China has "highly safeguarded people's safety and health and achieved significant positive results by coordinating epidemic prevention and control with economic and social development", he said.

Its anti-corruption campaign

In his speech, Xi Jinping also defended his fearsome anti-corruption campaign, responding to critics who accuse him of using it to bring down rivals and consolidate his power. "The fight against corruption has won a landslide victory and has consolidated in an exhaustive manner, eliminating the serious latent dangers within the party, the state and the army,” he said. According to official figures, at least 1.5 million people have been punished during this campaign, which Xi Jinping began as soon as he came to power in 2012 to bring down the "tigers" (top leaders) and the "flies" (small officials) eager for bribes.

And on the eve of the opening of the 20th Congress, CCP leaders officially endorsed the decision to expel a handful of officials, including Fu Zhenghua and Shen Deyong, who served on the Central Committee. One of the country's most powerful police chiefs, Fu was sentenced to life in September after being accused of forming a "political clique" with other senior security officials, including Sun Lijun, former deputy minister of Public Security. Their fall from grace is arguably the biggest purge of the security system since Xi launched his massive anti-corruption campaign. As for Shen, former vice president of the Supreme Court of China, he is awaiting trial for corruption.

For critics of Xi Jiping, this campaign has also been a political tool for the Chinese number one, intended to bring down rivals.

China, however, at an impasse

But despite this self-consecration and the defense of his record, Xi Jiping cannot ignore that China is today at an impasse,

Indeed, between the end of the 1970s and the mid-2010s, the country made its economic development an absolute priority. In 40 years, China has become the world's factory and the planet's leading market in many sectors. For the greater benefit of its population. But this model is in crisis. Growth there has become anemic – it should not exceed 3.2% this year -, one in five young urbanites is unemployed and real estate, the real lifeblood of activity, is out of breath. And according to Natixis, Chinese debt represents 275% of GDP.

The creeping real estate crisis

Pillar of the Chinese economy and symbol of the "miracle" of the last thirty years, the real estate sector is indeed caught in an unprecedented spiral of mistrust.Since Evergrande collapsed a year ago, the housing bubble has been cracking all over the place. These cascading bankruptcies have put on the floor tens of millions of households forced to honor their mortgages for homes bought at a high price and to which they will probably never have the keys. Over the months, a refund strike, born on the social network WeChat, has spread throughout the country, further weakening hundreds of small local banks weighed down by heaps of bad debts. At the end of July, the boycott concerned more than 320 identified construction sites and 800,000 housing units, Natixis seeing it as “the tip of a huge iceberg”. When Chinese real estate catches a cold, the whole country coughs. " These last years,

An economy undermined by debt and political choices

The growth crisis is therefore explained first by excessive indebtedness, particularly at the level of local authorities - the Chinese debt would represent 275% of GDP - but above all, by the political choices made by Xi Jinping to consolidate his power. . The “zero Covid” strategy, reaffirmed again yesterday at the podium of the XXth Congress, is in fact curbing business activity and household consumption. Similarly, the takeover of large private multinationals, particularly in Tech, acts as a brake on innovation.

China-US rivalries

It is in this difficult context that the conflict of powers between China and the United States is announced. The struggle between Washington and Beijing for world leadership promises to be a long-term showdown.

A decisive step in the confrontation between the two main world economies has just been taken by Joe Biden, with the implementation of restrictions in the sensitive sector of semiconductors, these electronic "chips" essential in the era digital. Washington took action on the eve of Xi Jinping's major political meeting, the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The American administration has indeed just published a document of a hundred pages [PDF] aiming neither more nor less, to “decapitate the Chinese semiconductor industry” according to the image of an American expert.

A world leadership that remains to be conquered...in a long-term showdown, with real economic and geopolitical consequences.

OF THE REVOLT AGAINST THE VEIL

TO THE REVOLT AGAINST THE IRANIAN REGIME

She left her veil and her fear behind her, to take to the streets to join the protest movement that has inflamed Iran since the death of Mahsa Amini. This amateur video that has gone viral on social networks has quickly become a symbol of all these women who take off their veils and cut their hair to protest against the dress code imposed by the Islamic Republic.

A symbol of courage

Above all, it illustrates the last moments of the life of Hadis Najafi, barely 20 years old, who was killed by six bullets in the head, neck and chest by the security forces in the small town of Karaj, in west of Tehran. “Hadis Najafi did not remain silent in the face of tyranny. She was killed for protesting against the brutal death of Mahsa Amini”, announced on September 25, 2022 on Twitter the American journalist and activist of Iranian origin Masih Alinejad, who spoke with the sister of the victim. The announcement of the death of the young woman moved beyond the borders of Iran.

“Young Iranian women are the real catalyst for this mobilization. The fact that they are the leaders of this movement is quite unprecedented in Iran,” said journalist Sara Saidi, correspondent in Iran from 2016 to 2019.

"A strong movement that scares the regime"

However, the ultra-conservative President Ebrahim Raïssi called on the police on Saturday to "react firmly". Faced with the scale of the mobilization, the head of the Iranian judiciary, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, threatened on Sunday to show “no leniency” vis-à-vis the demonstrators.

In ten days, fifty-four people were killed according to Iran Human Rights and hundreds arrested.

For Farid Wahid, director of the Observatory of North Africa and the Middle East of the Jean-Jaurès Foundation, these protests are the result of years of "economic, political and social frustration". “It is a strong, symbolic movement, which scares the regime. The Iranian authorities have received a very hard blow, taboos are broken, Iranians are done with the systematic linking of politics and religion. The situation is so catastrophic that these young people are ready to die to change things. Mahsa Amini's death was the spark that caused the explosion,” he adds.

The revolutionary song Bella ciao

The current movement goes far beyond the single issue of the veil. At the forefront of this revolt, of course, are Iranian women. As a sign of protest, some young Iranian women, their faces completely uncovered, take the risk of posting videos on social networks in which they revisit the Italian revolutionary anthem Bella ciao in Persian. A symbol shared virally all over the world.

But unlike other mobilizations where women acted in isolation, this is a collective movement. The very young women have succeeded in bringing together the older women but also the men in the streets.

Iran specialist Farid Wahid attests to this: “It's a feminist movement, but it's supported by many men, who are there for their sisters, their wives. Everyone is in the street, whether it is the bourgeois or poor neighborhoods, the city, the countryside. The country is moving, everywhere! »

To show their opposition to religious laws, some demonstrators have decided to attack the symbols of the Islamic Republic established in 1979. By unbolting statues or tearing down portraits of the political figures who established these laws throughout the country. is over 40 years old.

The Iranian government's only response has chosen force and cut off the internet to almost all of its 80 million inhabitants. This had already been the case, at the end of 2019, during demonstrations catalyzed by the increase in the price of fuel.

According to Reuters, the crackdown had killed 1,500...

"WOMEN FREEDOM LIFE"

ARTISTS' SUPPORT FOR IRANNIAN WOMEN

Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian Kurd, died on September 16, three days after her arrest for violating the Islamic Republic's strict dress code, which notably requires women to wear the veil. Her death sparked a wave of protests in Iran, which were violently suppressed, and rallies in solidarity with Iranian women around the world. The Iranian people, women in the lead, demonstrate at the risk of their lives for access to the most essential freedoms. Braving death Iranian women took to the streets and started burning their veils and cutting their hair. They remove their hijab while shouting "Death to the Islamic Republic" A particularly symbolic gesture: removing the hijab is a punishable crime in Iran.

Ten days after the death of Mahsa Amini, arrested by the police for a badly worn veil, it is then Hadis Najafi, killed by six bullets by the police, who becomes the symbol of the Iranian revolt while demonstrators continue to defy the power that brutally suppresses. We see, with her back to the camera, a young woman who ties her blond hair in a bun and readjusts her glasses. She left her veil and her fear behind her, to take to the streets to join the protest movement that has inflamed Iran since the death of Mahsa Amini. This amateur video that has gone viral on social networks has quickly become a symbol of all these women who take off their veils and cut their hair to protest against the dress code imposed by the Islamic Republic.

A symbol of courage

Above all, it illustrates the last moments of the life of Hadis Najafi, barely 20 years old, who was killed by six bullets in the head, neck and chest by the security forces in the small town of Karaj, in west of Tehran. “Hadis Najafi did not remain silent in the face of tyranny. She was killed for protesting against the brutal death of Mahsa Amini”, announced on September 25, 2022 on Twitter the American journalist and activist of Iranian origin Masih Alinejad, who spoke with the sister of the victim. The announcement of the death of the young woman moved beyond the borders of Iran.

“We have decided to respond to the call that was made to us”

Finally the actresses Juliette Binoche, Julie Gayet, Isabelle Adjani, Charlotte Gainsbourg, Alexandra Lamy Isabelle Huppert, Laure Camaly, or even the singer Angèle... have given their support to these women tyrannized by the regime of the Iranian mullahs. In this video published by the Instagram account "Support women Iran", we can see the French actresses. In the background, the cover of the Italian song Bella Ciao by the Iranian singer Gandom, which has become the anthem of protest. "Masha Amini is dead for showing a few strands of hair", write these artists in a press release posted on Instagram.

At the initiative of this video, three lawyers: the president of Paris Julie Couturier, the former president of the National Bar Council, Christiane Feral Schuhl and Richard Sédillot, specialized in the defense of human rights.

The text that accompanies the video affirms that it is "impossible not to denounce again and again this terrible repression (...). The arrests only increase the number of prisoners already illegally detained and too often tortured . We have therefore decided to respond to the call that was made to us by cutting, too, some of these locks. "All posted a video filming them cutting a lock of hair as a sign of support for women. Iranian.

“Woman Life Freedom”

Nearly a thousand personalities of the French seventh art, including stars like Léa Seydoux, Isabelle Huppert and Dany Boon, renowned filmmakers or the boss of the Cannes Film Festival Thierry Frémaux called on Tuesday to "support the women's revolt in Iran" , in a grandstand. In this appeal, entitled "Woman Life Freedom", the slogan of the demonstrations in Iran, the professionals wish "collectively to express (their) support for the Iranian women who are fighting today for their freedom at the risk of their lives, and Iranian people who courageously support their revolt".

The platform has also been signed by winners of the Palme d'Or, such as Julia Ducournau and Jacques Audiard, of the Lion d'Or such as Audrey Diwan, and actors as diverse as Marion Cotillard, Camille Cottin, Louis Garrel and Alex Lutz. .

"We call on all those who are speaking out against the assassination of Mahsa Amini and the massive, brutal and deadly repression ordered by the Iranian authorities, to express loud and clear their solidarity with the people Iranian,” they continue.

The “universal fight for women, for life and for freedom is also ours”.

THIRTY-ONE DEAD IN PROTESTS IN IRAN AGAINST THE MOLLAHS' REGIME

The NGO says it has confirmed that demonstrations have taken place in more than 30 cities and other urban localities in Iran, and is alarmed by "massive arrests" of demonstrators and civil society activists.

The demonstrations broke out immediately after the announcement on September 16 of the death of Mahsa Amini, 22 and from Kurdistan (north-west), who fell into a coma after being arrested in Tehran on September 13 for "wearing inappropriate clothes and detained by the morality police.

The first demonstrations took place in the province of Kurdistan where she was from. These protest rallies have now spread across the country.

Iran Human Rights said its death toll included 11 people killed on Wednesday evening alone in the city of Amol, in the northern province of Mazandaran which borders the Caspian Sea, and six people killed in Babol in the same province. .

The large city of Tabriz (northeast) experienced its first death in these demonstrations, according to the NGO. On Thursday, the Kurdish human rights organization "Hengaw" reported that 15 people had been killed in Kurdistan province and other Kurdish-populated northern regions of Iran, including eight people killed in the evening. of Wednesday. For its part, state television announced Thursday a toll of 17 people - including protesters and police - who died in these demonstrations.

Women's leadership

Unlike past revolts, women took the lead by taking to the streets before being joined by men in a context of economic and social difficulties linked to the decline in purchasing power. The protest turned into a large-scale agitation against a hated power.

Slogans hostile to the regime are chanted everywhere, even setting fire to the photo of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

"For the first time, women have taken the lead in a social movement that is not cultural when historically they have fought their battles more through the arts such as literature, cinema, theater and painting as well as via journalism and medicine, confides the sociologist Farhad Khosrokhavar, specialist in Iran and author of the book The new jihad in the West (Robert Laffont, 2018). The cultural feminist movement has thus also transformed into a social movement ".

Iranians, exhausted by years of sanctions and by the pandemic, are now rising up against the very symbols of the Islamic Republic regime, which are in particular the question of wearing the veil and the instruments of repression and control reactivated since the accession to power of President Ebrahim Raïsi, in August 2021.

“The underground challenge to the Islamist order is now coming to light,” says Iranologist Clément Therme, associate researcher at the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah).

The authorities are faced with a dilemma, either they renounce the identity of the regime, or they fall into systematic repression against a popular ground swell which calls for a profound socio-cultural transformation of the country. “, poorsuit he in The opinion.

WITH PARTIAL MOBILIZATION

VLADIMIR PUTIN HARNESSES THE TONE AGAINST NATO

Eight months after its launch, the “special military operation” in Ukraine has come to an end. Without however pronouncing the word "war", Vladimir Putin took a new step, this Wednesday, September 21, 2022, by decreeing the mobilization of citizens for the Ukrainian front, saying he was ready to use "all the means" of his vast arsenal against the West. "It's not a bluff," insisted Vladimir Putin, meaning that he was ready to use atomic weapons.

Mobilization of reservists and nuclear threat

“The oukaze is signed, the process begins today,” the president announced in a rare televised address to his people.

The announced partial military mobilization concerns 300,000 reservists, primarily citizens with military experience, aged 65 for the oldest. The students and conscripts of the contingent will not be affected by a mobilization at the front, the Russian authorities have promised for the moment. According to the head of the Defense Committee in Parliament, Andrei Kartapolov, the main concerns are reservist soldiers and non-commissioned officers under the age of 35 as well as junior reserve officers under the age of 45.

Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu argued that the front line “is more than 1,000 kilometers long. Obviously, we must strengthen this line and the rear, we must control these territories, ”he said.

Towards annexation referendums

Moreover, just yesterday the separatist authorities of four regions of Ukraine announced the holding of "annexation referendums" from Friday 23 to Tuesday 27 September. The next day, in his televised address, Vladimir Putin also gave his support to these initiatives, defending the “right to self-determination” of the inhabitants of the provinces of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporijia.

The organization of these referendums accelerated with the Ukrainian counter-offensive. "It's a way of sanctuarizing these territories," explains Jean de Gliniasty, former French ambassador to Russia, director of research at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris). “Russia announces for the outside that it will defend these territories as its own. ". With the consequence that “any ground threat to these territories will be considered an existential threat by Moscow. “, according to Jean de Gliniasty. Once these referendums have been approved, Russia could therefore consider that the war is now taking place on its soil. "And when we talk about an existential threat, it's the atomic weapon that is at stake," continues Jean de Gliniasty. Vladimir Putin has indeed threatened to

Even if the legitimacy of these votes is widely disputed by part of the international community, these annexations could however have an outcome similar to that of Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014 after a referendum not recognized by the international community.