LEGISLATIVE A SERIOUS WARNING

FOR MACRONISTS

However, the presidential coalition won by a short margin (25.75%), since “Together!” ahead of the left alliance, the Nupes (25.66%), by barely some 21,000 votes.

If the record abstention (52.49%) is also to be noted, the second round promises to be difficult for the President of the Republic, who would be forced to negotiate alliances to govern freely and pass his reforms.

This first round, which could have been a formality for Emmanuel Macron after his score in the presidential election, was therefore not the expected confirmation. “The absolute majority is not at this stage guaranteed to Together. The most likely, subject to the campaign, is that the presidential majority is relative, with less than 289 seats, even if an absolute majority of a few seats is still possible”, cautiously advances Mathieu Gallard, director of studies at the Ipsos Institute.

It is also the first time under the Fifth Republic that the party of the President of the Republic does not arrive in the lead in the legislative elections in the wake of the presidential election, or even declines between the two ballots.

In 2002, 2007 and 2012, the UMP, then the PS, had indeed exceeded, sometimes very largely, the bar of 30% of the votes in the wake of the election of Jacques Chirac, Nicolas Sarkozy or François Hollande. This time, the outgoing majority is doing much less well than five years ago (La République en Marche and the MoDem had obtained 32.33% of the vote in 2017), and recorded 2 points less than the score of the outgoing president. only seven weeks ago.

Opposite Emmanuel Macron, we find a very high score for the Nupes which should become the second most important group in the National Assembly. With an estimate of 275 to 310 deputies elected for Emmanuel Macron, against 346 outgoing deputies, this is a real setback.

The question that has obsessed the Head of State's advisers since yesterday evening is whether he will obtain the 289 deputies, that is to say an absolute majority.

Reduced room for maneuver

If so, this absolute majority will not be overwhelming. Emmanuel Macron's main partners, François Bayrou and Edouard Philippe, will see their political weight mechanically reinforced. And it will be impossible to pass laws without them. Emmanuel Macron's room for maneuver will therefore be reduced in comparison with the previous five-year term.

And, without an absolute majority, that is to say in the case of a relative majority, not only Bayrou and Philippe will become essential to the president, who will be less free to move. But, in addition, Emmanuel Macron will have no choice but to reach out to other competing parties to try to have a majority. This opening is almost impossible in the direction of Nupes. It is therefore towards the Republicans, who could obtain between 40 and 60 deputies, that Emmanuel Macron will try to turn. In a way, a government of German-style coalitions...

Now opens an era with a stronger parliament, alliances of circumstances and a country more difficult to govern.

In the case of a relative majority

In the event that the coalition of the presidential majority does not largely win, or worse, if it is defeated in the second round of the legislative elections, the consequences would be multiple for Emmanuel Macron.

Two scenarios are then possible.

If “Together!” comes first, but without reaching 289 seats, Emmanuel Macron will have a relative majority in the National Assembly. The scenario would be complicated for the President of the Republic who would then have two options before him. The first would consist in playing the game of alliances and seeking the support of other political formations, in order to have an absolute majority to vote on the texts of law. Some members of the government consider in particular that there is a reserve of votes available on the side of the right.

The second option would be to govern "in a minority" while retaining the Prime Minister of his choice, who would undoubtedly remain Elisabeth Borne if she wins in her Calvados constituency. Emmanuel Macron could choose to govern "in force" by resorting to the controversial article 49-3 which allows the government to adopt a text without submitting it to the vote of the Assembly. The government would nevertheless expose itself to a possible motion of censure, which could bring it down on condition of bringing together a majority of deputies to vote for it.

In the case of cohabitation

The second scenario for Emmanuel Macron, judged as "catastrophic" by one of his supporters, would be the defeat in the second round of the legislative elections for his coalition. This would lead to a cohabitation with the appointment (traditional but non-compulsory) of a new Prime Minister who would naturally be the leader of the opposition, Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

This scenario, the least favorable for the President of the Republic, would deprive him of almost all of his powers. Emmanuel Macron would nevertheless retain the possibility of dissolving the National Assembly and calling new elections to try to recover his majority. A risky tactic that proved to be a loser for Jacques Chirac in 1997, sanctioned by voters and forced to live with Lionel Jospin for the last five years of his seven-year term.

According to OpinionWay's projections, Emmanuel Macron should obtain between 260 and 300 deputies, which gives him about a one in two chance of obtaining an absolute majority. ..For his part, Jean-Luc Mélenchon should be able to obtain between 170 and 200 seats, knowing that the Nupes candidates have few reserves of votes for the second.

Projections which will be confirmed this Sunday, June 19 on the occasion of the second round of the legislative elections, which could mark a turning point in the policy of Emmanuel Macron.