FRANCE REGIONALS THE REPUBLIC ON THE MARKET

TAKES A SLAP

It's a first round that doesn't really look like what the polls predicted. More than 66% abstention, or two out of three French people who shun the ballot box! This is 17 points more than in the previous edition in 2015.

In a context of “abysmal” abstention, the candidates of the LREM majority will not be able to influence the second round.

The Republic in March "KO standing"

Eliminated in Hauts-de-France, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and Occitanie, barely more than 10% in other regions: the lists of La République en Marche and its allies experienced a severe rout on Sunday evening , depriving the macronie of any possibility of being kingmaker. LREM wanted to be modest, hoping to garner 15% of the vote, perhaps even more in some regions, as some optimistic polls predicted. Alas: the presidential party convinced only about 10 of the voters. . Its candidates record such disappointing scores, sometimes under 10%, that they do not even allow themselves to be maintained and to play a role in the second round.

Worse: he was eliminated from the second round in Occitanie, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and especially in Hauts-de-France, where Minister Laurent Pietraszewski is announced between 7.3% (Harris Interactive) and 9.1% (Ifop) , despite the presence of four other members of the government on its list - Agnès Pannier-Runacher, Éric Dupond-Moretti, Gérald Darmanin and Alain Griset. Despite her five ministers, she recorded a bitter failure.

Another disillusionment: the Modem Marc Fesneau, the best Macronist hope to win a region, finished fourth in the first round. In Brittany, the battle of the heirs of Le Drian turns to the profit of the socialist rather than of the "walker".

Outgoing region presidents topped the list

Despite the abstention, the outgoing presidents can have a smile. The two main traditional parties are fully benefiting from the "leavers' bonus", which were in charge during the health crisis. This allows the right to hope to be able to keep its seven regions and the left its five in mainland France. On the right, Xavier Bertrand, Laurent Wauquiez, Valérie Pécresse, Jean Rottner or even Hervé Morin are now well placed to bere-elected. Just like on the left, Carole Delga in Occitanie or Alain Rousset in New Aquitaine.

In Brittany, while he was neck and neck with LREM, the socialist Loïg Chesnais-Girard takes the lead and could leave for a second term (especially in the event of an agreement with EELV). Within the left, the ecologists pull out their game when there was no outgoing PS: this is the case in Ile-de-France where Julien Bayou wins the small primary with Audrey Pulvar and Clémentine Autain.

Bertrand well placed for 2022?

With more than 41% of the vote in the first round, Xavier Bertrand can savor his victory and become essential on the right for the presidential election of 2022. He is undoubtedly one of the big winners of the evening. Xavier Bertrand, declared rival for the presidential election, comes out reinforced, with the added bonus of proof that he can alone, without the reinforcement of the macronists, beat the RN.

Gérald Darmanin, however, refuses to see a warning for the 2022 presidential election in the mediocre results of the presidential party in the regions. “I consider that the French answer the question asked: 'who do you want as president of the region? They responded. Let us not jump to conclusions about the presidential election. (...) When they vote for the President of the Republic, they will choose the President of the Republic, ”commented Gérald Darmanin.

The RN back?

Opinion polls promised the National Rally (RN) to come out on top in 6 of the 13 metropolitan regions while it only succeeds in one, in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur (PACA). He was announced high in the polls. While he had turned in the lead in six regions in 2015, he won this first round only in one region: Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur.

Thierry Mariani, defector from the right, turns well ahead but does not widen the gap as much as announced; the second round promises to be tight. In Hauts-de-France, where Marine Le Pen had collected 40.6% in the last regional, Sébastien Chenu falls to around 24%. The abstention did not at all succeed in the party of Marine Le Pen which knows many disappointments. Recognizing that his constituents “did not come”,Marine Le Pen called "a start" for the second round.

How to explain these failures ? Do they want the abstention which would have affected the electorate of the National Rally more ( which was not necessarily the case until now ) ?

At the choice of the candidates ?

To the “trivialization” strategy desired by Marine Le Pen ?

For the one who is embarking on her third presidential candidacy, it is in any case an alert not to be overlooked.

Situation reversal

The majority candidates only cross the 10% mark - the minimum threshold to maintain themselves - only in 8 regions. Right and left, meanwhile, maintain their positions. Apart from PACA, all the outgoing region presidents came out on top.

The close match announced with the RN did not take place, the declared presidential candidate Xavier Bertrand can already establish his image as a man capable of beating the RN, "my one and only enemy", he declared . He reverses the balance of power with Marine Le Pen's party compared to 2015

It's a first round that doesn't really look like what the polls predicted.

The results of the 2021 Regionals of the first round shake up the presidential strategies of Macron and Le Pen. Until then, the negotiations of alliances, mergers or withdrawals will feed the chronicle until the filing of the lists Tuesday at 6:00 p.m., in particular in Paca, region where the RN is best placed.

“The abstention of 66% of the French now confirms a form of democratic fatigue, as if a growing part of the citizens, disillusioned by politics or policies, no longer considered it useful to vote. ".

If the slap is confirmed in the second round for the majority, the question of a government reshuffle could be asked, while Emmanuel Macron must present in early July the roadmap for the end of his five-year term, which he wishes "useful"