EARTHQUAKE IN LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS

LESSONS TO BE LEARNED

The second round of the legislative elections on June 19th put an end to the long electoral cycle, with two rounds of presidential elections and two rounds of legislative elections. In the presidential election, Emmanuel Macron had been largely re-elected, especially if we remember that an outgoing president inevitably displeases part of the electorate.

But the legislative elections last weekend will have marked a huge drop in the electorate of the presidential majority. The main issue for the second round was of course whether the presidential majority would also have an absolute majority of deputies or whether, as the polls suggested, it would only have a relative majority.

Distrust of the majority

The results are very bad for the majority. Together obtains 245 seats, far from the absolute majority of 289. The New People's Ecological and Social Union (NUPES) has 133 deputies, in the low range of what the polls predicted. On the other hand, the National Rally has 89 elected members against 8 in 2017 and 35 in 1988 with a departmental proportional voting system. The Republicans have 60, less than half the parliamentary group they had from 2017 to 2022. There are 20 various lefts, 10 regionalists, 10 various right, 4 various centers, 4 UDI, 1 sovereignist right.

Let us add that the two main blocks are composite. In the relative presidential majority, LREM would have only 162 deputies, almost half less than in 2017, the MoDem 45 (about the same as in 2017), Horizon, the new party of Édouard Philippe, 27.

On the side of the NUPES, La France insoumise (LFI) has 79 elected officials (against 17 today), EELV 25, the PS 25 and the PCF 12 (which will have difficulty in forming a parliamentary group). It is quite possible that this coalition will crumble or break apart, given the major program gaps, particularly in Europe and NATO.

For the first time since 2002, when the presidential mandate had been reduced to five years and the electoral calendar reversed, there is no amplification of the presidential victory in the legislative elections. On the contrary, there seems to have been a strong movement of defiance towards the majority. The front against the "extreme", which the presidential camp had called for, did not work. The fear of a "chaos" so radical left and right came first did not mobilize either.

A future made of alliances ?

The situation for the next five years is therefore very open, forcing the power to find alternative majorities on a case-by-case basis, unless it succeeds in convincing elected representatives from the right or various left, to join it. These results show that the recompositions of the French partisan system are not over. Republicans could split or crumble, with some moving towards Macronia, others possibly joining the National Rally.

This situation of very strong weakening of the majority could already be seen in the results of the first legislative round. The presidential coalition obtained only about 25.7% of the votes cast, at the same level as the NUPES. If we compare with 2017, LREM had then collected 32.3% of the votes cast in the first round, i.e. almost 7 points more than on June 12, 2022. Three major partisan blocs emanated from the polls: Together, the NUPES and the radical right at around 24% (RN, Reconquest, sovereignist right), while the traditional right was reduced to 13.6% (LR, UDI, various right).

The record level of abstention (52.5% of registered voters) has prevented many candidates from standing since it is necessary to obtain at least 12.5% ​​of registered voters (ie more than 25% of those cast in most constituencies). The second round therefore opposed everywhere (with 7 exceptions) duels of candidates: 415 Ensemble were qualified, 380 NUPES, 209 RN and 71 LR.

An unconvincing strategy

Ensemble's strong decline in the legislative elections compared to the presidential election is probably linked to the adoption of an unconvincing strategy. In 2017, the newly elected president had chosen a prime minister very quickly. His government carried popular measures before the first round, particularly in terms of moralizing political life.

In 2022, on the other hand, the Head of State was slow to announce his government, without committing to specific measures despite an obvious climate, economic and health crisis. Thus, on the key issue of purchasing power, the Prime Minister was content to announce belatedly a 4% increase in pensions during the summer.

The presidential program for the next five years thus remains vague, particularly in terms of economic policy, as if the president wanted to keep the margins of initiative with regard to the policy he will pursue, or as if he thought that his presence on the international scene was enough to attract voters. Evidenced by the vagueness around his latest proposal with a National Council for Refoundation

In this context, the electoral alliance operated by Jean-Luc Mélenchon succeeded in almost tripling the number of left-wing deputies in the National Assembly.

However, as a percentage of the votes cast, it is only stable in percentage compared to 2017 around 30% (with the various lefts), while the radical right has progressed by around 10 points.

The importance of abstaining

Finally, the second round confirms the first as to the importance of abstention: 53.8%, a little more than in the first legislative round but a little less than in the second round of 2017 (57%). The gaps are even greater than before according to generations and social categories: when among those over 65, two out of three registered voters will vote, this is only the case for one person under 35. Many workers and employees have also become very fatalistic, not seeing the point of going to vote.

This is a very important question which the public authorities should take up at the start of the legislature so that reforms can possibly be implemented in 2027. We know that abstention could decline – without there being any miracle solutions – with the introduction of a voting system that is at least partly proportional, with the possibility of voting by post or on the Internet, with also a reform of registration on the electoral lists to prevent have a lot of "mis-registered".

Many are also those who propose to implement a real policy of strengthening citizenship among young people, to develop voting incentive programs during election campaigns, or even to organize major contradictory debates between the parties and that the professions of faith reach the voters well in advance.

A reflection on the type of reforms to be implemented is urgent for the future of representative democracy in France.