SOMMET DE L'OTAN A MADRID OU UN TOURNANT POUR L'ALLIANCE ATLANTIQUE?

Les chefs d'Etat et de gouvernement des pays membres de l'Alliance atlantique se sont réunis à Madrid, pour un sommet qui se tient du 28 au 30 juin dans la capitale espagnole entièrement préoccupé par la menace russe et la guerre en Ukraine. Au-delà de l'Ukraine, la journée de mercredi a été l'occasion pour l'Otan d'adopter son nouveau « concept stratégique », la première révision de sa feuille de route depuis 2010, qui da évoqué pour la première fois les défis posés par la Chine.

L'adhésion de la Suède et la Finlande

Le sommet de Madrid marque un tournant majeur du côté occidental : les pays européens les plus exposés aux coups éventuels de la Russie ont obtenu de l’Otan les assurances nécessaires pour prévenir ou contrer ceux-ci : c’est le processus d’adhésion de la Finlande et de la Suède, et le renforcement notable du dispositif otanien de la Roumanie à l’Estonie, avec une présence substantielle de la France. Le processus d'adhésion de la Finlande et de la Suède, qui ont décidé de rejoindre l'Otan en réaction à l'offensive lancée par la Russie en Ukraine le 24 février, rompant ainsi avec une longue tradition de neutralité, a en effet été lancé. Cette adhésion était jusqu'à présent bloquée par la Turquie, membre de l'Otan depuis 1952, qui accusait notamment Stockholm et Helsinki d'abriter des militants de l'organisation kurde PKK, qu'Ankara considère comme « terroriste ». Mais au terme de longues tractations en marge du sommet, la Turquie a donné mardi soir son accord à l'entrée dans l'Otan de ces deux pays nordiques, le président turc Recep Tayyip Erdogan ayant estimé avoir obtenu leur « pleine coopération » dans sa lutte contre le PKK.

« La politique de porte ouverte de l'OTAN » s'est soldée par « un succès historique », a salué Jens Stoltenberg. « L'accueil de la Finlande et de la Suède dans l'alliance les rendra plus sûres, l'OTAN plus forte et la zone euro-atlantique plus sûre », a-t-il insisté. Les futurs membres suédois et finlandais apportent à l'Alliance 28 500 soldats d’active, 2 300 blindés, 1 000 pièces d’artillerie, 220 chars, 175 navires et 158 avions.

Une Force de réaction « bien au-dessus de » 300 000 hommes

Les dirigeants de l'Otan ont décidé au sommet de Madrid de transformer leur Force de réaction et de porter « bien au-dessus » de 300.000 hommes les troupes à haut niveau de préparation pour faire face à la menace russe, a annoncé lundi le secrétaire général de l'Alliance.

« En faisant cela, nous fournissons une dissuasion crédible dont l'objectif n'est pas de provoquer un conflit, mais d'empêcher la Russie ou tout autre adversaire potentiel d'attaquer un pays allié », a-t-il insisté.

« Je suis convaincu que le président Poutine comprend les conséquences d'une attaque contre un pays de l'Otan », a-t-il ajouté. L’état de préparation de ces forces est relevé pour éviter les mauvaises surprises, avec 300 000 soldats concernés au lieu de 40 000 auparavant.

Renforcement des groupements tactiques à l'est

« Nous allons renforcer nos groupements tactiques dans la partie orientale de l'Alliance, jusqu'au niveau de la brigade », a-t-il précisé.

Huit groupements tactiques ont été créés. Ils sont basés en Lituanie, en Estonie, en Lettonie, en Pologne, en Roumanie, en Hongrie, en Slovaquie et en Bulgarie.

Certains seront renforcés « jusqu'au niveau de la brigade » - unités tactiques de 3.000 à 5.000 hommes, a précisé Jens Stoltenberg.

L'Allemagne, chef de file du Groupement tactique basé en Lituanie, a annoncé son intention de porter sa capacité au niveau d'une brigade, mais l'essentiel des troupes restera stationné dans le pays. Des unités sont « pré-désignées » dans d'autres pays membres de l'Alliance pour intervenir dans les pays où sont basés des groupements tactiques et où des armements lourds auront été prépositionnés, a expliqué le secrétaire général de l'Otan.

Les Etats-Unis à la rescousse

Joe Biden, pour sa part, a annoncé un nouveau renforcement des forces US en Espagne, en Pologne, en Roumanie, dans les États baltes, au Royaume-Uni, en Allemagne et en Italie. Deux frégates lance-missiles en Espagne pour renforcer les quatre déjà sur place ; deux escadrons de chasseurs F-35 au Royaume-Uni pour remplacer des F-15 redéployés en Pologne ; une brigade de combat en Roumanie ; un état-major permanent de Corps d’armée en Pologne ; davantage d’artillerie, d’aviation, de défense antiaérienne et de forces spéciales dans les trois pays baltes ; des moyens de défense antiaérienne en Italie et Allemagne…

Renforcement de l'aide à l'Ukraine

L’Ukraine qui entre dans son 127e jour de guerre, ce jeudi 30 juin 2022,a été au cœur des discussions lors du sommet de l’Otan à Madrid, mercredi. L’occasion pour les pays membres de réaffirmer leur soutien à l’Ukraine contre la « cruauté » de la Russie. Vladimir Poutine a, pour sa part, dénoncé les « ambitions impérialistes » de l’Alliance atlantique.

Le gouvernement britannique a profité de la journée de mercredi pour annoncer une aide militaire supplémentaire de plus d’un milliard d’euros à l’Ukraine.

Les pays membres de l’Otan ont aussi précisé s’être mis d’accord sur un nouveau plan d’aide passant par la « livraison d’équipements militaires non létaux », ainsi que par un renforcement des défenses ukrainiennes contre les cyber-attaques.

Un nouveau concept stratégique

L'Otan a par ailleurs adopté mercredi un nouveau concept stratégique identifiant la Russie comme « la menace la plus significative et la plus directe » à la paix transatlantique, et la Chine comme un « défi » aux « intérêts », aux « valeurs » et à leur « sécurité ».

Pour Moscou  un "nouveau rideau de fer"  en référence à la Guerre froide

Vladimir Poutine a pour sa part dénoncé une « hégémonie » de la part de l’Otan, lors d'une conférence de presse à Achkhabad, la capitale turkmène.

Concernant l’adhésion des deux pays nordiques, il a dit ne pas y voir de « problème », à condition toutefois qu’il n’y ait pas de déploiement de contingents militaires et d’infrastructures militaires. Auquel cas, a-t-il prévenu, « nous serons obligés de répondre de manière symétrique et de créer les mêmes menaces pour les territoires d'où émanent les menaces pour nous. »

Pour Moscou,un nouveau « rideau de fer » s'abattait en Europe au moment où l'Ukraine, forte du soutien renouvelé de l'alliance, reprenait aux Russes un îlot symbolique et stratégique pour la maîtrise des routes maritimes.

« Le rideau de fer, de fait, il est déjà en train de s'abattre », a déclaré le ministre russe des Affaires étrangères Sergueï Lavrov, lors d'une conférence de presse à Minsk, reprenant le terme qui a marqué l'histoire de l'Europe pendant la Guerre froide, et n'est tombé qu'avec la chute du mur de Berlin en 1989.« Ce rideau de fer est érigé aujourd'hui par les Occidentaux eux-mêmes », a renchéri son homologue biélorusse Vladimir Makeï, dont le pays est un allié de Moscou dans sa confrontation avec l'Ouest.

Moscou et Minsk réagissaient au sommet de mercredi et jeudi de l'Alliance atlantique qui a réaffirmé son soutien massif à l'Ukraine. Sa nouvelle feuille de route stratégique désigne désormais la Russie comme « la menace la plus significative et directe pour la sécurité des alliés », et dénonce les tentatives de Moscou et Pékin d'unir leurs efforts pour « déstabiliser l'ordre international ».

Un sursaut de l'Otan?

« La guerre en Ukraine a provoqué un sursaut de l'OTAN, mais est-elle sortie de sa mort cérébrale pour autant? On peut en débattre. Cette guerre prouve surtout que le temps d'une OTAN porteuse de valeurs universelles - son credo à peine masqué depuis la fin de la Guerre froide - est révolu. L'Alliance va, peut-être, s'étendre à quelques nouveaux membres, et après? En refusant le règlement pacifique du conflit et en misant sur la bipolarité comme seule sortie de crise, les membres de l'OTAN ne font que s'affaiblir un peu plus. D'une certaine manière, les propos d'Emmanuel Macron de 2019 sont encore plus d'actualité aujourd'hui, et on ne peut que le déplorer. », selon Barthélemy Courmont, enseignant-chercheur à l'Université catholique de Lille et directeur de recherche à l'IRIS

Et si l’Otan sert puissamment en ce moment, qu’en sera-t-il du côté américain, avec la possibilité d’un retour de Trump et la probabilité d’un accaparement de l’attention et des ressources américaines face au grand rival chinois ?

SALADE SUCRÉE-SALÉE AUX FRUITS ROUGES, PETITS POIS, FETA ET MENTHE

C'est le temps des salades estivales. Profitons-en

Pour 4 pers.

Préparation : 25 mn  Cuisson : 10 mn

Ingrédients

- 500 g de petits pois écossés

-2 poignées de cresson u

-200 g de fraises 125 g de framboises

-1 échalote

- 1 bouquet de menthe

- 100 g de feta

- 2 c. à soupe d’huile d’olive

- 1 c. à café de miel

-1 c. à soupe de vinaigre balsamique

Déroulé

1. Portez à ébullition un grand volume d’eau salée et faites cuire les petits pois 10 mn. Une fois cuits, égouttez-les et passez-les sous l’eau très froide afin de préserver leur couleur. Lavez le cresson à grande eau. Lavez et équeutez les fraises. Pelez et ciselez l’échalote. Lavez et ciselez la menthe.

2. Dans un saladier, versez les petits pois, ajoutez les fraises coupées en rondelles, les framboises, le cresson, la menthe et l’échalote ciselée, puis parsemez de feta émiettée.

3. Versez au moment de servir l’huile d’olive, le vinaigre balsamique et le miel, salez et poivrez au moulin.

Le  plus:  vous pouvez ajouter des pointes d’asperges vertes et des haricots verts.

13 NOVEMBRE SEPT CONDAMNATIONS A PERPETUITE

Au terme de 149 jours d’audience marathon, la cour d’assises spéciale de Paris a rendu son verdict, lu par le président Jean-Louis Périès.

 La cour a suivi le Parquet national antiterroriste (Pnat) qui le 10 juin, avait demandé la peine maximale contre Salah Abdeslam. Les cinq magistrats condamnent ce Franco-Marocain de 32 ans, à la réclusion criminelle à perpétuité, incompressible. Il devra donc effectuer au minimum trente ans de prison avant de pouvoir demander la levée de cette perpétuité incompressible, prélude à toute demande d'aménagement de peine. Il n’a pas réagi publiquement à ce verdict. Seul membre encore en vie du commando du 13-Novembre, Salah Abdeslam est bel et bien considéré comme « le co-auteur des attentats, toutes les cibles de ce13-Novembre constituant une seule et même scène de crime », selon la cour d’assises. Le magistrat a ajouté que « la cour a également reconnu que le gilet explosif dont il était porteur n'était pas fonctionnel, ce qui remet sérieusement en question les déclarations de Salah Abdeslam quant à son renoncement ».

« Des accusés radicalisés »

Pas de circonstances atténuantes non plus à l’encontre de Mohamed Abrini, qui avait pris part au fameux convoi de lamort en novembre 2015.

En revanche, Sofien Ayari, 28 ans, et Osama Krayem, 29 ans, échappent à la perpétuité. Ils sont condamnés à trente ans de réclusion criminelle avec les deux tiers incompressibles, pour « leur participation à une association de malfaiteurs terroristes ».

Mohamed Bakkali, 35 ans, qui a déjà écopé de vingt-cinq ans de prison pour l’attentat, en août 2015, du train Thalys, est également condamné à trente ans de réclusion criminelle. Tout comme Ahmed Dahmani, 33 ans, actuellement détenu par la Turquie.

Pour tous ces accusés, la Cour considère que par « leur adhésion aux thèses djihadistes, et leur radicalisation », ils ne pouvaient pas ignorer les projets d’attentats terroristes en Europe.

Perpétuité aussi pour les frères Clain

La perpétuité est également prononcée contre les cinq grands absents de ce procès, supposés morts en Syrie et donc jugés par défaut. Parmi eux, Oussama Atar, considéré « comme le commanditaire des attentats » ; Obeida Dibo, chef opérationnel, et Omar Darif, un des artificiers en chef. Même perpétuité pour les frères Fabien et Jean-Michel Clain, Normands à un moment de leur vie et qui avaient revendiqué au téléphone les carnages de Paris.

« La propagande a joué un rôle essentiel dans la stratégie de Daech, à la fois pour diffuser la terreur et pour attirer de nouveaux combattants », a résumé le président Périès.

Pour les autres accusés, âgés de 29 à 41 ans, les peines s’échelonnent de deux ans de prison ferme à dix-huit ans de réclusion criminelle, selon le degré de l’aide logistique apportée au commando du 13-Novembre.

« Aucun des trois accusés qui comparaissaient libres n’est réincarcéré à l’issue de l’audience », a confirmé le Pnat.

Les vingt accusés condamnés hier disposent de dix jours pour faire appel. L’histoire retiendra les quatre-vingt dix morts du Bataclan, trente-neuf sur les terrasses de café, un au Stade de France. Sur les 400 blessés, une femme et un homme se sont donné la mort depuis.

Six ans après une nuit de terreur qui a traumatisé la France et après un procès-fleuve marqué par les récits glaçants de près de 400 rescapés ou proches à la barre, sur près de 2 600 parties civiles, les rescapés vont pouvoir enfin fermer une page.

GHISLAINE MAXWELL CONDAMNEE A 20 ANS

DE PRISON

Elle risque de finir sa vie en prison à New York : âgée de 60 ans, l’ex-mondaine britannique Ghislaine Maxwell, reconnue coupable, fin 2021, de trafic sexuel de mineures pour le compte du financier américain décédé Jeffrey Epstein, a été condamnée, hier, à vingt ans d’emprisonnement. « La peine prononcée aujourd’hui rend Ghislaine Maxwell responsable d’avoir commis des crimes odieux contre des enfants. Cela envoie un message fort : personne n’est au-dessus des lois et il n’est jamais trop tard pour la justice », a déclaré dans un communiqué Damian Williams, procureur fédéral du tribunal de Manhattan, où la juge Alison Nathan a rendu son jugement. Au prononcé de la peine, Mme Maxwell a, pour la première fois, exprimé sa « sympathie pour toutes les victimes » dans cette affaire. Ghislaine Maxwell et Jeffrey Epstein étaient en couple au début des années 1990 avant de devenir collaborateurs professionnels et complices pour leurs crimes sexuels durant près de trente ans.

Ghislaine Maxwell condamnée à 20 ans de prison Ghislaine Maxwell a la triple nationalité britannique, américaine et française.

LES ENGAGEMENTS DES DIRIGEANTS

AU SOMMET DU G7

Réunies en Bavière au château d’Elmau du 26 au 28 juin 2O22 les puissances industrielles du G7 ont proposé un éventail de réponses aux crises mondiales. De la guerre en Ukraine aux menaces de pénuries alimentaires en passant par le péril climatique, retour sur les engagements pris par les dirigeants de l’Allemagne, du Canada, des Etats-Unis, de la France, de l’Italie, du Japon et du Royaume-Uni.

La guerre et la reconstruction de l' Ukraine

Les participants au sommet ont tenu à montrer un visage uni contre Moscou. Le G7, auquel s’est joint cinq pays émergents, dont l’Inde, a condamné l’invasion « illégale » de l’Ukraine, par la Russie. Les alliés ont notamment promis de fournir un soutien financier, humanitaire, militaire et diplomatique et de rester aux côtés de l’Ukraine « aussi longtemps qu’il le faudra ». L’aide financière débloquée pour ce pays en 2022 atteint désormais 29,5 milliards de dollars. Kiev devrait aussi recevoir de nouveaux armements, notamment des missiles antiaériens américains sophistiqués.

Pour tarir davantage les revenus de la Russie, les dirigeants du G7 vont lancer les travaux visant à mettre en place un mécanisme de plafonnement du pétrole russe, afin de frapper une importante source de revenus de Moscou, a dit un haut responsable de la Maison Blanche. Le G7 prévoit également d’imposer une interdiction de l’importation d’or russe. Pour contrôler le prix de l’or noir vendu par la Russie, les sept pays « envisagent une série d’approches », y compris « une éventuelle interdiction de tous les services qui permettent le transport maritime du pétrole brut et des produits pétroliers russes », à moins que le pétrole ne soit acheté en dessous du plafond qui serait fixé.

Les sept puissances, à l’issue de leur réunion, se disent « résolues à soutenir la reconstruction de l’Ukraine par le biais d’une conférence et d’un plan de reconstruction internationaux »​.

La Chine

Les dirigeants présents en Allemagne ont dénoncé les pratiques commerciales internationales « non transparentes et faussant le marché » de Pékin. Ils souhaitent donc s’affranchir de la dépendance à l’égard de la Chine, en « favorisant la diversification et la résistance à la coercition économique » et en « réduisant les dépendances stratégiques ». Les membres du G7 ont également fait part de leurs préoccupations concernant les violations des droits de l’homme en Chine, l’exhortant à respecter les libertés fondamentales. Ils ont souligné que la situation au Tibet et au Xinjiang, où sévit le « travail forcé », les « préoccupait grandement ».

Le communiqué final exhorte également la Chine à « honorer ses engagements » au titre de la déclaration commune sino-britannique, garantissant à Hong Kong certaines libertés et son autonomie pendant 50 ans dans le cadre du modèle « Un pays, deux systèmes ».

Atténuer la crise alimentaire

Le G7 s’est engagé à verser 4,5 milliards de dollars supplémentaires pour atténuer la crise alimentaire mondiale, portant le total des engagements communs à 14 milliards de dollars sur l’année. Les sept puissances ont également appelé pays et entreprises disposant d’importants stocks de nourriture à assumer leurs responsabilités pour atténuer la crise alimentaire déclenchée par le conflit en Ukraine. Elles exhortent aussi « tous les pays à éviter le stockage excessif de denrées alimentaires, qui peut entraîner de nouvelles hausses de prix ». En outre elle a aussi réitéré son « appel pressant à la Russie pour qu’elle mette fin, sans condition, au blocus des ports ukrainiens de la mer Noire, à la destruction d’infrastructures portuaires et de transport essentielles, silos et terminaux à grains, à l’appropriation illégale par la Russie de produits et d’équipements agricoles en Ukraine et à toutes les autres activités qui entravent la production et l’exportation de production et les exportations ukrainiennes de denrées alimentaires »​. La Russie nie pour sa part avoir bloqué le passage des cargos et accuse les sanctions occidentales de contribuer à la crise alimentaire.

Les engagements sur le climat

Les pays du G7 se sont accordés pour renforcer la coopération dans la lutte contre le réchauffement de la planète. Mais leurs ambitions, qui se heurtent aux craintes de pénuries d’énergie, ont déçu les défenseurs de l’environnement. Les puissances, qui doivent à court terme se passer du gaz russe, sont sous pression pour tenir leurs engagements climatiques.

Dans leur déclaration finale, les chefs d’Etat ou de gouvernement ont certes réaffirmé « leur engagement indéfectible » envers l’Accord de Paris qui vise à limiter le réchauffement climatique mondial à 1,5° par rapport à l’ère préindustrielle et leur objectif de parvenir à zéro émission nette de carbone d’ici à 2050. Ils ont aussi souligné « l’urgence accrue d’agir » pour réduire les émissions mondiales de gaz à effet de serre d’environ 43 % d’ici à 2030 par rapport au niveau de 2019. Le G7 s’est en outre engagé à ce que le secteur routier soit « fortement décarboné d’ici à 2030 ».

Le sommet a aussi convenu de créer un « Club Climat » composé de pays volontaires pour coordonner et accélérer les efforts de lutte contre le réchauffement climatique. Mais des voix critiques soulignaient à l’issue du sommet que l’idée restait vague et risquait de devenir « juste un autre club », selon Martin Kaiser, le directeur exécutif de Greenpeace en Allemagne.

L’énergie

Emmanuel Macron, le chancelier allemand Olaf Scholz, le président américain Joe Biden, le Premier ministre britannique Boris Johnson, le Premier ministre japonais Fumio Kishida, la présidente de la Commission européenne Ursula von der Leyen, le président du Conseil européen Charles Michel, le Premier ministre italien Mario Draghi et le Premier ministre canadien Justin Trudeau, se sont engagés à mettre fin, d’ici à la fin de 2022, à tout nouveau soutien public direct au secteur international de l’énergie à base de combustibles fossiles non exploités. Toutefois, face à la ruée sur les sources d’énergie alternatives pour s’émanciper des combustibles fossiles russes, le G7 a convenu que des investissements publics pouvaient être réalisés dans le secteur du gaz « à titre de réponse provisoire ».

En annonçant ces engagement, bien que le G7 ne représente plus les sept plus grandes puissances économiques, Joe Biden tente de donner à ce groupe un tour plus politique, celui de la lutte des démocraties contre les autocraties...

FAUT-IL S'INQUIETER DE LA MENACE DE PENURIE D'ENERGIE ?

Faut-il que la pénurie menace pour que les grands énergéticiens français EDF, TotalEnergies et Engie, dans une tribune commune publiée dans le Journal du dimanche, dimanche 26 juin 2022, en appellent à la sobriété, au nom de la cohésion sociale ?.

Faut-il que l’heure soit grave que le ministre de l’Economie présente ladite sobriété comme un passage obligé », sans alternative ?

Trois jours plus tôt, lors d’une visite dans un centre de commande national de gaz en Ile-de-France,Elisabeth Borne, accompagnée d’Agnès Pannier-Runacher, avait déjà planté le décor. « Nous devons faire preuve de sobriété énergétique. Je ne sais pas si c’est le bon terme, mais en tout cas nous devons réduire de 40 % d’ici à 2050 » appellent à la sobriété. Une feuille de route devrait s’appliquer dès cet été à l’Etat, aux administrations et aux grandes entreprises.

Voilà que les énergéticiens se transforment en « pères la morale ». « Nous appelons à une prise de conscience et à une action collective et individuelle pour que chacun d’entre nous change ses comportements et limite immédiatement ses consommations énergétiques, électriques, gazières et de produits pétroliers », ont écrit Jean-Bernard Lévy et Patrick Pouyanné, PDG d’EDF et de TotalEnergies, ainsi que Catherine MacGregor, directrice générale d’Engie, dans une tribune parue dans le Journal du dimanche

Dans la tribune du JDD, les trois dirigeants des fournisseurs d'énergie français appellent donc à « un effort collectif et immédiat » pour éviter un hiver sous tension. Les trois appellent les Français à réduire « immédiatement » leur consommation de carburant, d'électricité et de gaz. Selon les trois fournisseurs d'accès d'énergie en France, les risques de pénurie et la flambée des prix sont tels qu'ils vont jusqu'à menacer « la cohésion sociale » l'hiver prochain.

En effet « depuis maintenant des mois, le système énergétique européen subit de fortes tensions et le système énergétique français n'est pas épargné », exposent Catherine MacGregor, directrice générale d'Engie, Jean-Bernard Lévy, président-directeur général d'EDF, et Patrick Pouyanné, président-directeur général de TotalEnergies. « Agir dès cet été nous permettra d'être mieux préparés pour aborder l'hiver prochain, et notamment préserver nos réserves de gaz.

Ces tensions s'expliquent par la guerre en Ukraine et les sanctions occidentales, d'abord. Les livraisons de gaz russe par gazoduc ont « fortement baissé pour certains pays, dont la France ». « Bien qu'en augmentation, les importations de gaz naturel liquéfié (GNL) sont aujourd'hui encore trop limitées pour compenser ces baisses. Le niveau d'alerte sur les stocks de gaz au niveau européen est dès lors élevé et des mesures de rationnement sont mises en place dans certains pays », soulignent-ils.

Aussi le marché pétrolier mondial pourrait-il connaître des tensions entre le niveau de production et la demande durant l'été. Aux Etats-Unis, on entre dans la 'driving season', la période de l'année où les déplacements automobiles sont les plus importants, car les gens partent en vacances. Et donc celle où on a besoin de plus de carburant automobile. En Chine, l'assouplissement des confinements drastiques imposés à certaines villes va entraîner un retour à la normale des déplacements, et donc une augmentation de la demande pétrolière.

La météo y est aussi pour quelque chose. « Les conditions climatiques et la sécheresse viennent amputer la production hydraulique », écrivent les trois dirigeants dans leur tribune. Une grande partie du parc nucléaire français nécessite effectivement l'eau des rivières pour être refroidi. Par conséquent, un niveau des cours d'eau trop bas, comme cela a été le cas début juin par exemple dans le Rhône, peut mettre en péril ces activités.

A ces causes viennent s'ajouter d'autres handicaps comme le laissait entendre le gestionnaire du réseau de transport d'électricité (RTE) il y a deux semaines auprès de TF1. « Nous nous trouvons en effet dans une période charnière, marquée par une série d'événements à gérer : la fermeture des centrales au fioul et à charbon, celle [nucléaire] de Fessenheim, mais aussi du retard quant au développement d'autres modes de production », note RTE.

De plus au 24 mai, 27 des 56 réacteurs nucléaires français étaient à l'arrêt, selon EDF. Soit près de la moitié. Une situation sans précédent, qui s’explique par des fermetures planifiées mais également par un problème imprévu de corrosion. Alors que la moitié du parc nucléaire est à l’arrêt, le ministère de la Transition énergétique se réserve d’ailleurs « la possibilité de faire fonctionner la centrale [ à charbon] de Saint-Avold quelques heures de plus si nous en avons besoin l’hiver prochain ».

En fait le risque de pénurie plane si bien qu'à court terme , toute économie de gaz ou d’électricité faite aujourd’hui permettra de sécuriser les stocks pour l’hiver.  A moyen terme, le gouvernement afficherait des intentions plus ambitieuses. « L’objectif, c’est une feuille de route qui nous permette de réduire de 10 % la consommation d’énergie par rapport à notre référentiel habituel d’ici deux ans », a précisé la ministre de la Transition énergétique. Ce qui correspond à « la première marche du scénario de RTE, qui vise une réduction de 40 % d’ici à 2050 ».

La France n'est cependant pas le seul pays concerné . Pour compenser les baisses de livraisons de gaz russe, l'Allemagne va par exemple retourner au charbon. Un recours provisoire, promet le ministre de l'Economie et du Climat allemand, qui reconnaît qu'il s'agit d'une décision amère. La prolongation de certaines centrales sera une mesure à court terme, sur une période "limitée", jusqu'en mars 2024, assure Berlin.

D'autres pays d'Europe ont récemment annoncé des mesures similaires. L'Autriche, également dépendante du gaz russe, a également acté le redémarrage prochain d'une centrale à charbon désaffectée, afin de pouvoir pallier une éventuelle pénurie.

Dernier exemple en date : les Pays-Bas. Jusqu'ici, les centrales électriques au charbon néerlandaises ne pouvaient fonctionner à plus de 35% de leur capacité, selon une loi en vigueur depuis janvier 2022 pour réduire les émissions de CO2 du pays. Elles peuvent désormais « fonctionner à pleine capacité », a annoncé lundi 20 juin le ministre de l'Environnement et de l'Energie néerlandais, Rob Jetten.

Alors qu’elle prône la sobriété énergétique, Elisabeth Borne a annoncé jeudi dernier la prolongation du bouclier tarifaire jusqu’à la fin de l’année. Un bon signal pour inciter à réduire sa consommation?

TARTE COURGETTES, OIGNON ROUGE ET CAMEMBERT

Profitons des légumes de ce mois de juin avec une bonne tarte salée qui demande à peine 15 minutes de préparation.

Ingrédients pour 6 personnes

-250 g de farine

-1 c. à soupe de thym effeuillé

-100 g de beurre demi-sel à température ambiante

-2 courgettes

-1 oignon rouge

-1/ 2 camembert

-1 oeuf

-20 cl de crème liquide

-2,5 cl d’huile d’olive

Déroulé

1. Mélangez la farine et le thym dans un saladier. Ajoutez le beurre coupé en dés et commencez à mélanger du bout des doigts. Ajoutez l’huile, puis 5 cl d’eau en continuant à mélanger jusqu’à amalgamer la pâte sans trop la travailler. Laissez-la reposer 1 h au frais.
2. Sortez la pâte du réfrigérateur. Pelez et émincez l’oignon finement. Lavez et coupez les courgettes en fines lamelles dans la longueur. Coupez le camembert en tranches fines.
3. Préchauffez le four à 180°/ th. 6. Battez l’oeuf avec la crème, salez et poivrez au moulin. Étalez la pâte et placez la dans un moule à tarte beurré. Versez le mélange crème/ oeuf, puis rangez les lamelles de courgettes en spirale. Intercalez celles d’oignon et de camembert. Parsemez de thym.
4. Enfournez 45 mn.

   Servez chaud ou tiède avec un petit Beaujolais blanc.

DES REFORMES INDISPENSABLES A FAIRE

 POUR L 'UKRAINE CANDIDATE A L'UNION EUROPEENNE

Les pays membres de l’Union européenne ont décidé d’accorder jeudi 23 juin 2022 le statut de candidat à l’adhésion à l’UE à l’Ukraine accompagnée de la Moldavie.Depuis le début de l’invasion russe, Kiev n’a eu de cesse de plaider cette cause auprès des Vingt-Sept. Cette décision historique est hautement symbolique. Ce nouveau statut de candidat envoie en effet un message à la Russie, qui refuse que l'Ukraine puisse avoir une voie européenne et acte la souveraineté de l'Ukraine et la reconnaissance de cette souveraineté par l'UE.

Il y a en effet des étapes dans la procédure de candidature à l'Union.La toute première phase, qui consiste à dire que les États membres de l'Union ont reconnu l’Ukraine comme candidat après l’établissement d’un rapport par la Commission européenne, vient d'être franchie. Il va falloir ensuite que l'Union européenne se prononce à l’unanimité sur le lancement concret du processus d'adhésion, avec des négociations entre l'UE et l'Ukraine. Or l'une des conditions pour l'ouverture d'une quelconque négociation d'adhésion est le retour à la paix et la reconstruction du pays, un pays en guerre ne pouvant négocier son entrée dans l'Union.

Afin de pouvoir prétendre à une entrée dans l’Union européenne, l’Ukraine doit également se hisser aux standards européens si bien que de nombreuses réformes vont devoir être mises en branle  , l'Ukraine étant loin de remplir les critères pour une adhésion à l'Union européenne.

Pour ce faire l’Ukraine doit adapter sa législation et ses modes de gouvernance à celles de l’UE. Le pays est touché par un phénomène de corruption endémique (en 2021, l'Ukraine obtient un score de 32/100 dans l'indice de perception de la corruption établi par l'ONG allemande de lutte contre la corruption, Transparency International NDLR). C'est un pays où des oligarques règnent sur l'économie. L'indépendance de la justice est une fiction. Tous ces points sont les chantiers prioritaires de la réforme . De plus avant de pouvoir entrer dans l'UE, l'Ukraine largement détruite par l'action de l'armée russe. va devoir être reconstruite .

Une fois toutes les négociations terminées, l’entrée de l’Ukraine devra être une dernière fois validée par tous les pays membres de l'UE. Pour l'élargissement de l'UE, la règle décisionnelle est celle de l'unanimité. Des pays comme la Pologne ou les pays Baltes vont être très accommodants avec l'Ukraine car ils considèrent que, géopolitiquement, l'entrée de l'Ukraine dans l'UE est un facteur prioritaire de stabilité.

Mais d'autres pays, à l'instar de la France, des Pays-Bas ou de l'Espagne ne voudront pas d'une Ukraine mal préparée. Le chemin risque donc d'être long.

LE PROJET DE LOI POUVOIR D'ACHAT

APREMENT DEBATTU

Le texte, qui a vocation à aider les Français à faire face à l'inflation, doit être présenté en Conseil des ministres le 6 juillet puis examiné au Parlement dans la foulée. Ce doit être le premier grand texte du second quinquennat d'Emmanuel Macron. Le projet de loi « pouvoir d'achat », censé être présenté en Conseil des ministres mercredi 6 juillet et examiné au Parlement dans la foulée, doit permettre de soulager les Français, plombés par une inflation qui devrait atteindre en moyenne 5,5% en 2022.

Son contenu fait déjà l'objet d'une âpre bataille politique entre les oppositions et l'exécutif, les premières comptant sur l'absence de majorité absolue à l'Assemblée nationale du camp présidentiel pour imposer certaines de leurs mesures clés. C'est pourquoi le ministre de l’économie a alerté sur le niveau d’endettement de la France, ce lundi. Une manière d’appeler les oppositions à la retenue avant les débats du projet de loi pouvoir d’achat à l’Assemblée nationale.

La France a atteint sa « cote d’alerte » sur les finances publiques, a en effet estimé le ministre de l’économie Bruno Le Maire, lundi 27 juin, au moment où l’exécutif cherche un compromis avec l’opposition pour son projet de loi sur le pouvoir d’achat.

« Tout n’est pas possible, tout simplement parce que nous avons atteint la cote d’alerte sur les finances publiques », a affirmé M. Le Maire, ajoutant que « les conditions de financement ont changé » et qu’aujourd’hui la France emprunte « à plus de 2 % » pour financer les dépenses publiques, quand elle le faisait encore récemment à taux négatifs ou très faibles. Selon l’Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (Insee), la dette publique française a dépassé 2 900 milliards d’euros à la fin du troisième trimestre, soit 114,5 % du produit intérieur brut (PIB), du fait aussi d’une croissance économique en berne.

Le projet de loi pouvoir d’achat, objet de toutes les tractations

A droite, le nouveau président du groupe Les Républicains à l’Assemblée nationale, Olivier Marleix, a fortement insisté sur le risque d’une augmentation de la dette française, lundi matin sur Europe 1, quelques minutes avant la prise de parole de M. Le Maire. « Sur la question du pouvoir d’achat et d’un tel problème pour nos compatriotes, évidemment on va tout faire pour converger avec le gouvernement » et « avancer sur ces mesures », a déclaré le député d’Eure-et-Loire alors que Les Républicains, s’ils refusent de participer au gouvernement, assurent qu’ils voteront possiblement des textes « au cas par cas ».

M. Marleix a toutefois posé deux conditions : la nécessité de prendre en compte le fait que la question du pouvoir d’achat est « un sujet d’ampleur pour la France qui travaille », et « il faudra évidemment que le gouvernement accepte d’envisager la question du financement de ces mesures ».

« On sera exigeants à l’égard du gouvernement pour que ce soit financé. La situation de la dette française aujourd’hui est très grave (…) Le gouvernement ne peut pas dire : “Allez hop, 30 milliards de dette supplémentaire !” Ce serait irresponsable », a-t-il estimé, promettant que les députés LR « feront des propositions sur le sujet du financement ».

A gauche, le député et secrétaire national du Parti communiste français, Fabien Roussel, a souhaité sur CNews « une forte augmentation du pouvoir d’achat » avec notamment « une baisse tout de suite de la TVA sur l’essence ». « On ne se contentera pas de miettes » et « on va tous descendre dans la rue s’il le faut pour obtenir ces mesures », a-t-il prévenu.

Un coup de pouce de huit milliards d’euros pour les prestations sociales

Interrogé sur la proposition faite par plusieurs partis de l’opposition, comme Les Républicains ou le Rassemblement national, d’une baisse de taxe sur les carburants, M. Le Maire a assuré que le gouvernement allait « discuter » avec ces formations mais que « l’esprit de compromis doit s’accompagner d’un esprit de décision ».

La prolongation de mesures existantes

Plusieurs mesures déjà mises en œuvre ces derniers mois pour lutter contre la hausse des prix devraient être prolongées. C'est le cas du bouclier tarifaire sur l'énergie (qui vient déjà d'être prolongé par décret jusqu'au 31 décembre 2022), et qui plafonne les tarifs de vente du gaz et de l'électricité. La remise de 18 centimes par litre sur les carburants tient encore aussi, au moins pour le mois d'août. Le gouvernement réfléchit en parallèle à un nouveau dispositif plus ciblé sur les gros rouleurs, mais son articulation avec la remise n'est pas tranchée, a assuré vendredi 24 juin la ministre de la Transition énergétique, Agnès Pannier-Runacher.

L'indemnité inflation, ponctuelle, devrait également faire son retour sous le nom de chèque alimentation. Le gouvernement a abandonné l'idée d'un chèque alimentaire mensuel, qui devait permettre l'accès à des produits de qualité. Cette nouvelle aide financière, dont le montant n'est pas encore fixé, sera versée « en une fois » et « à la rentrée », directement sur le compte bancaire des plus modestes, a annoncé la Première ministre, Elisabeth Borne. Tout en assurant que la réflexion continuait sur un chèque alimentaire plus ciblé sur les produits « de qualité » et « bio ».

Enfin, la prime Macron, qui avait fait son apparition durant la crise des « gilets jaunes », sera pérennisée et son plafond triplé. Les entreprises pourront donc verser jusqu'à 3 000 euros à leurs salariés, voire 6 000 euros pour les entreprises de moins de 50 salariés et celles qui ont un accord d'intéressement.

Des revalorisations de prestations sociales

Plusieurs prestations sociales doivent être revalorisées. Les pensions de retraite et d'invalidité des régimes de base, la prime d'activité (dont le montant forfaitaire est de 563,68 euros), mais aussi les prestations familiales et les minima sociaux, dont le revenu de solidarité active (550,93 euros pour une personne seule sans ressource), l'allocation aux adultes handicapés (919,86 euros au maximum), l'allocation de solidarité aux personnes âgées (916,78 euros pour une personne seule) devraient connaître une hausse de 4%, selon le projet de loi consulté. Ce coup de pouce sera rétroactif au 1er juillet. Le coût de ces revalorisation s'élève à « un peu moins de 7 milliards fin 2022 », selon Les Echos

Le projet de loi de finances rectificative, présenté en même temps que le projet de loi « pouvoir d'achat », devrait en outre intégrer une revalorisation de 3,5% de l'aide personnalisée au logement (APL), ce qui représenterait une dépense supplémentaire de 168 millions d'euros.

De nouvelles mesures mises en place

Le gouvernement prévoit par ailleurs une série de nouvelles mesures. Les fonctionnaires verront ainsi la fin du gel de leur point d'indice, qui sert de base à leur rémunération. Les syndicats de la fonction publique demandent entre 3% pour la CFDT et 20% pour la CFTC. Une hausse de 1% coûterait 2 milliards d'euros par an à l'Etat, selon le gouvernement, qui devrait annoncer la valeur du nouveau point le 28 juin.

Une baisse des cotisations des travailleurs indépendants est également prévue dans le projet de loi. Elle doit leur permettre de gagner « 550 euros par an au niveau du smic », avait assuré mi-mai le porte-parole de l'ancien gouvernement Gabriel Attal.

Le projet de loi prévoit par ailleurs un renforcement de la « prime de transport » versée par les entreprises à leurs salariés pour couvrir une partie du coût de leurs déplacements domicile-travail. Le plafond d'exonération fiscale et sociale de la prise en charge par l'employeur des frais de carburant de ses salariés sera ainsi doublé, de 200 à 400 euros pour les années 2022 et 2023. Les salariés pourront aussi cumuler cette prime avec la prise en charge par l'employeur de 50% du prix des abonnement aux transports en commun.

La suppression de la redevance audiovisuelle devrait par ailleurs être effective dès l'automne prochain, avec un gain pour les ménages de 138 euros, soit un manque à gagner pour l'Etat de plus de 3 milliards d'euros net.

Le texte veut également ouvrir la possibilité d'instaurer un dispositif d'intéressement par l'employeur même sans accord de branche ou avec les représentants du personnel. L'objectif étant de faire bénéficier les salariés du partage de la valeur créée dans l'entreprise. En revanche, la piste d'un « dividende salarié », qui devait rendre obligatoire la participation en entreprise, « ne figure pas dans le texte initial à ce stade », confirme le ministère du Travail.

Outre ces mesures, le gouvernement prévoit d'intégrer au projet de loi de finances rectificative un « bouclier loyer », visant à plafonner les hausses de loyer pendant un an à 3,5%, a confirmé Bruno.

« La politique, c’est des choix (…) Il est impératif de réduire l’endettement public », mais « il faut dans le même temps protéger nos compatriotes qui sont les plus fragiles, mais les protéger de manière responsable. », conclut Bruno Lemaire.

END OF ABORTION LAW IN THE UNITED STATES

OR LESS DEMOCRACY MORE RELIGION

The short and medium term consequences are still unclear. Several analysts fear a nationwide ban is inevitable if the Republican Party regains a majority in Congress after midterm elections next November, as Democrats themselves expect.

Two phenomena, both distinct and related, make it possible to understand the political trend at work in the United States: on the one hand, the rise of white evangelicalism as a political identity; on the other, a growing tolerance – even a preference – for authoritarian tactics within the Republican Party. An ideology and a strategy that together risk undermining American democracy.

“A nation united under the authority of God”: politicization of the religious right

White evangelical Christians represent one of the most unified and mobilized demographic groups in the United States today, forming a unique political force. This religious right, pillar of the anti-abortion movement, is therefore as much a cult as a social movement characterized by a variety of opinions. Despite these internal divisions, the common agreement is about a nationalist project defending an anti-feminist, anti-LGBTQ and pro-gun policy.

The politicization of white evangelicalism existed long before the Trump era. Despite the statements of Jerry Falwell, an evangelical pastor and one of the leaders of the religious right, it does not date either from a moral outrage provoked by the Roe v. Wade of 1973 which established the legal framework for access to abortion.

It was rather during the desegregation and financial penalization of evangelical schools that refused to admit black students that the religious right began to organize in the late 1970s. During the presidential election of 1980, abortion replaces desegregation as the emblematic cause, but the legacy of white supremacist ideology has survived within the evangelical movement.

Leaders of the religious right continue to mobilize in favor of the Republicans rather than create their own party, a strategy more likely to lead to electoral victories in the American two-party system. The fusion of this white evangelicalism with the Republican Party asserted itself with the re-election of Ronald Reagan in 1984 then with that of George HW Bush in 1988, although they themselves were quite distant from evangelical beliefs.

Pro and anti-abortion protesters outside the Supreme Court in Washington

Between the two national conventions of the Republican Party, from 1992 to 1996, the rate of adherents to the Christian Coalition exploded, going from 14% to more than 50%. In 2000, converting to evangelicalism was a big part of George W. Bush's campaign, and in 2016, 80% of white evangelical Christians voted for Trump.

An ideological change allowed by the American institutional system

At the same time, the Republican Party has developed an anti-system position and illiberal strategies for twenty years. According to the V-Dem Institute, this movement started gradually between 2000 and 2012; between 2014 and 2018, the party tipped on the edge of what the Institute considers authoritarianism – while the Democratic Party's score remained stable over the same period. Civil and political rights abuses in the first year of the Trump administration also prompted Freedom House to downgrade the "freedom score" in the United States in 2018.

Since the early 2000s, the Republican Party has relied on the redrawing of electoral districts – gerrymandering in English – to diminish the electoral power of traditionally Democratic groups, in particular ethnic minorities and young people. The reduction in the number of polling stations in certain neighborhoods and the implementation of voter identification laws in the United States (voter ID laws) have the same purpose.

This evolution continued until an agreement was reached between the leaders of the Republican Party to adamantly oppose the policies of Barack Obama just before his inauguration in 2009 – an agreement in which some Republican elected officials saw such a break with the norm that they have decided to leave politics for good.

These decisions lead to the situation we know today: a party that continues to contest the results of the elections that it does not win; blocking the investigation into the attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021, the most violent assault on the American government since the War of 1812, to which some of its members contributed; who continues to modify the electoral system to ensure results in his favor in the next elections. It is therefore not surprising that Republicans ignore the fact that the majority of American public opinion supports the right to access to abortion.

According to some political scientists, all of these elements are emblematic of a democratic backsliding – when a democracy ceases (or threatens to cease) to be so. At the international level, the backsliding of women's rights is only one of the expressions of this ongoing backsliding.

And the separation of powers ?

If the influence of religious groups is responsible for the rightwardization of American society, the politicization of the Supreme Court is an even more convincing phenomenon. For the past 80 years, the Supreme Court has played a vital role in granting civil rights, assessing the constitutionality of state laws or deciding court cases that restrict those rights. In this sense, the authorization of interracial marriage in 1967 had been a historic decision. With regard to the protection of civil rights, the Supreme Court plays a much more important role than the French institutions whose role comes closest to its own, namely the Court of Cassation and the Constitutional Council.

Many of Americans' civil rights do not result from legislation passed by Congress, but were decided through legal precedent from the Supreme Court. This is why the federal government did not transcribe Roe v. Wade in federal legislation: until now, this was not considered necessary. This lack is due both to an American political tradition and to poor management on the part of the Democrats, which they must certainly regret today.

What response from the Democratic Party ?

Seen from the outside, one wonders why Democratic President Joe Biden – whose party still has a majority in Congress – does not have the power to lead the country in the direction of the program for which he was elected. in 2020.

First, many Democrats have tried. Social networks and the press are full of speeches asking Americans to protect their rights, explaining how the decision would have a strong negative impact on the balance of the country. Joe Biden notably advised his people to vote for pro-abortion legislative candidates this fall.

Second, the government has no control over this decision, because the tools at its disposal can all be circumvented.

One example is the filibuster that Americans call filibuster, a Senate rule by which a minority group can prolong debate indefinitely to block a vote on a bill. This strategy requires two-thirds of the seats to overcome it, so the majority is no longer enough. Originally intended for exceptional cases, it began to be used regularly by Republicans to block legislation during Obama's presidency. The Democrats' attempt to codify access to abortion thus failed because of a Republican filibuster, as did their bill aimed at better protecting voting rights last January.

Furthermore, the Supreme Court has power over the executive orders of the President. In the event Joe Biden issues an executive order enshrining Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court could overturn it. So today there is an unprecedented power imbalance in favor of the Supreme Court.

The religious right will then be able to attack the other rights it contests, currently protected by the same legal principle ("right to privacy" or "right to private life") as Roe: contraception, marriage for all, same-sex relationships, and some even say interracial marriage could be affected.

Whatever the details of the Supreme Court judgment, Roe's end confirms a less democratic and more theocratic turn in the United States.

after Kimberly Tower, PhD Candidate in International Relations and Comparative Politics, Sciences Po and Camille Gélix, PhD candidate, Sciences Po, article published in The Conversation.

INDIGENOUS SOCIAL DEMONSTRATION

IN ECUADOR

Quito also denounced the attack, in the night from Tuesday to Wednesday, of a police station in the city of Puyo, in the province of Pastaza. The attackers set fire to the building while the police were still inside. “Six police officers were seriously injured, three are held hostage [by an indigenous community] and eighteen are missing,” Interior Minister Patricio Carrillo told a press conference.

The government refuses to lift the state of emergency declared in six of the twenty-four provinces of the country, a requirement of the indigenous movement prior to the opening of negotiations.

“Call to dialogue”

"The violence in Puyo shows that they do not want dialogue", denounced Mr. Carrillo, who however "launched once again a public call for dialogue to the indigenous movement and to these radical groups responsible for these senseless acts". . adding that President Guillermo Lasso recognizes "the just demands" and seeks to create a "consensus".

On Tuesday, the president said he accepted "a process of frank and respectful dialogue with Conaie [Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador] and other civil organizations".

The powerful Conaie, which participated in the revolts that overthrew three presidents between 1997 and 2005 and led violent demonstrations in 2019 (eleven dead), has been organizing marches and raising barricades since June 13 to demand lower fuel prices. Its president, Leonidas Iza, demanded on Tuesday evening, prior to any discussion, the repeal of the state of emergency, as well as the "demilitarization" of a park in Quito occupied by the police and traditionally used as a gathering to the natives.

"Peaceful Resolution"

“We cannot lift the state of emergency because that would leave the capital defenceless,” replied Minister of Government Affairs Francisco Jimenez on Wednesday. “We already know what happened in October 2019 and we are not going to allow it,” he said, referring to the invasion of parliament, the burning down of a government building and the ransacking many public assets.

The Alliance of Human Rights Organizations reports at least 90 injuries and 87 arrests since the protests began. The police, for their part, put forward a toll of 101 police and soldiers injured and 80 civilians arrested. On the night of Monday to Tuesday, a first protester died following a fall, but the prosecution decided to open an investigation for alleged homicide

US Under Secretary of State for the Western Hemisphere Brian Nichols on Twitter on Wednesday called for "a peaceful and negotiated resolution to the protests in Ecuador" and asked all parties to refrain from violence. The Organization of American States (OAS) urged dialogue to "respond to the demands" of the demonstrators.

In addition to fuel prices, the demonstrators denounce the lack of jobs, the granting of mining concessions in indigenous territories, the lack of control of the cost of agricultural products, and demand a renegotiation of peasant debts with banks.

Indigenous peoples make up at least one million of the 17.7 million Ecuadorians.

DEATH OF PALEONTOLOGIST YVES COPPENS

Born on August 9, 1934 in Vannes, to a father who was a teacher at the Jules-Simon high school and a pianist mother, Yves Coppens had spent his childhood near Conleau, a small Breton peninsula attached to the Morbihan area in the 1930s. He had done part of his studies in Rennes.

As a young doctor, he joined the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) in 1956 and initially focused on mammoth teeth. His thesis is on prehistoric elephants. He is 22 years old. It was with the aim of elucidating the origin of the Carnac alignments that he said he enrolled in archeology at the Sorbonne. He had continued in this direction by specializing, in the third cycle, in paleontology.

Lucy's Discovery

Former director of the National Museum of Natural History, holder of the chair of paleontology and prehistory at the Collège de France, he owes his notoriety above all to his discovery of the Australopithecus fossil nicknamed Lucy, 3.2 million years old, discovery in 1974 in Ethiopia during an international mission that he co-led with the American Donald Johanson and the French geologist Maurice Taieb. It was the latter, who died in July 2021, who put the team on the trail of this fossil, soon to be considered the grandmother of humanity – or its great-aunt, depending on the interpretation. This skeleton of a prehistoric woman - discovered in 52 fragments - (recent studies question the sex of this individual) officially bore the scientific name of Autralopithecus afarensis, in reference to this region of Afar, in northeastern Ethiopia, where it was discovered. But the members of the Franco-American mission had renamed her Lucy in reference to a Beatles hit ("Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds") which was on the radio at the time of her exhumation.

Lucy has sometimes been considered the ancestor of modern humans, before research into the origins of mankind challenged this presentation.

“Lucy is three million two hundred thousand years old and the first man is three million years old, explained Yves Coppens himself. I apologize to Lucy but I don't think she's our grandmother! »

This skeleton was for a long time the most complete hominid fossil ever found for such an ancient period (the skeletons of Ardi, in the early 1990s, and Selam, in 2000, respectively more than 4 and 3.4 million years ago).

Ambassador of prehistory

For fifty years, he criss-crossed the Ethiopian desert thanks to an annual campaign of excavations on the banks of the dry Aouache river.

Yves Coppens' fame was worldwide. Thanks to conferences and seminars, the paleontologist had visited the five continents. . He never stopped traveling the world to make his work known.

An outstanding pedagogue and born populariser, Yves Coppens adopted the tone of the storyteller which earned him the recognition of the general public.

EARTHQUAKE IN LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS

LESSONS TO BE LEARNED

The second round of the legislative elections on June 19th put an end to the long electoral cycle, with two rounds of presidential elections and two rounds of legislative elections. In the presidential election, Emmanuel Macron had been largely re-elected, especially if we remember that an outgoing president inevitably displeases part of the electorate.

But the legislative elections last weekend will have marked a huge drop in the electorate of the presidential majority. The main issue for the second round was of course whether the presidential majority would also have an absolute majority of deputies or whether, as the polls suggested, it would only have a relative majority.

Distrust of the majority

The results are very bad for the majority. Together obtains 245 seats, far from the absolute majority of 289. The New People's Ecological and Social Union (NUPES) has 133 deputies, in the low range of what the polls predicted. On the other hand, the National Rally has 89 elected members against 8 in 2017 and 35 in 1988 with a departmental proportional voting system. The Republicans have 60, less than half the parliamentary group they had from 2017 to 2022. There are 20 various lefts, 10 regionalists, 10 various right, 4 various centers, 4 UDI, 1 sovereignist right.

Let us add that the two main blocks are composite. In the relative presidential majority, LREM would have only 162 deputies, almost half less than in 2017, the MoDem 45 (about the same as in 2017), Horizon, the new party of Édouard Philippe, 27.

On the side of the NUPES, La France insoumise (LFI) has 79 elected officials (against 17 today), EELV 25, the PS 25 and the PCF 12 (which will have difficulty in forming a parliamentary group). It is quite possible that this coalition will crumble or break apart, given the major program gaps, particularly in Europe and NATO.

For the first time since 2002, when the presidential mandate had been reduced to five years and the electoral calendar reversed, there is no amplification of the presidential victory in the legislative elections. On the contrary, there seems to have been a strong movement of defiance towards the majority. The front against the "extreme", which the presidential camp had called for, did not work. The fear of a "chaos" so radical left and right came first did not mobilize either.

A future made of alliances ?

The situation for the next five years is therefore very open, forcing the power to find alternative majorities on a case-by-case basis, unless it succeeds in convincing elected representatives from the right or various left, to join it. These results show that the recompositions of the French partisan system are not over. Republicans could split or crumble, with some moving towards Macronia, others possibly joining the National Rally.

This situation of very strong weakening of the majority could already be seen in the results of the first legislative round. The presidential coalition obtained only about 25.7% of the votes cast, at the same level as the NUPES. If we compare with 2017, LREM had then collected 32.3% of the votes cast in the first round, i.e. almost 7 points more than on June 12, 2022. Three major partisan blocs emanated from the polls: Together, the NUPES and the radical right at around 24% (RN, Reconquest, sovereignist right), while the traditional right was reduced to 13.6% (LR, UDI, various right).

The record level of abstention (52.5% of registered voters) has prevented many candidates from standing since it is necessary to obtain at least 12.5% ​​of registered voters (ie more than 25% of those cast in most constituencies). The second round therefore opposed everywhere (with 7 exceptions) duels of candidates: 415 Ensemble were qualified, 380 NUPES, 209 RN and 71 LR.

An unconvincing strategy

Ensemble's strong decline in the legislative elections compared to the presidential election is probably linked to the adoption of an unconvincing strategy. In 2017, the newly elected president had chosen a prime minister very quickly. His government carried popular measures before the first round, particularly in terms of moralizing political life.

In 2022, on the other hand, the Head of State was slow to announce his government, without committing to specific measures despite an obvious climate, economic and health crisis. Thus, on the key issue of purchasing power, the Prime Minister was content to announce belatedly a 4% increase in pensions during the summer.

The presidential program for the next five years thus remains vague, particularly in terms of economic policy, as if the president wanted to keep the margins of initiative with regard to the policy he will pursue, or as if he thought that his presence on the international scene was enough to attract voters. Evidenced by the vagueness around his latest proposal with a National Council for Refoundation

In this context, the electoral alliance operated by Jean-Luc Mélenchon succeeded in almost tripling the number of left-wing deputies in the National Assembly.

However, as a percentage of the votes cast, it is only stable in percentage compared to 2017 around 30% (with the various lefts), while the radical right has progressed by around 10 points.

The importance of abstaining

Finally, the second round confirms the first as to the importance of abstention: 53.8%, a little more than in the first legislative round but a little less than in the second round of 2017 (57%). The gaps are even greater than before according to generations and social categories: when among those over 65, two out of three registered voters will vote, this is only the case for one person under 35. Many workers and employees have also become very fatalistic, not seeing the point of going to vote.

This is a very important question which the public authorities should take up at the start of the legislature so that reforms can possibly be implemented in 2027. We know that abstention could decline – without there being any miracle solutions – with the introduction of a voting system that is at least partly proportional, with the possibility of voting by post or on the Internet, with also a reform of registration on the electoral lists to prevent have a lot of "mis-registered".

Many are also those who propose to implement a real policy of strengthening citizenship among young people, to develop voting incentive programs during election campaigns, or even to organize major contradictory debates between the parties and that the professions of faith reach the voters well in advance.

A reflection on the type of reforms to be implemented is urgent for the future of representative democracy in France.

US SENATORS PROPOSE GUN LAW

"A giant step" for the organization Moms Demand Action, which campaigns for stricter supervision of arms sales. Democratic and Republican senators unveiled, on Tuesday June 21, 2022, a bill aimed at restricting gun violence after a series of deadly shootings..

The parliamentary initiative was launched after the Uvalde massacre, which killed 21 people, including 19 children, in a Texas elementary school at the end of May.

The text highlights in particular the support for laws, State by State, which would allow the weapons they possess to be removed from the hands of people deemed dangerous.

It also plans to strengthen criminal and psychological background checks for gun buyers between the ages of 18 and 21, as well as better control of the illegal sale of weapons, and the funding of programs dedicated to mental health.

The “most important legislation in almost 30 years”

It is “the most significant gun violence legislation in almost 30 years,” tweeted Democratic Senator Chris Murphy. This 80-page text "will save thousands of lives", he added. Chuck Schumer, the leader of the Democrats in the Senate, also described the text as “advanced”. “While not all we wanted, this legislation is urgently needed,” he said in a statement.

Republican John Cornyn, who worked with Chris Murphy on the project, said it was about making attacks like Uvalde's "less likely to happen, while still protecting the Second Amendment" of the Constitution, which permits the possession of firearms. "I'm proud that this proposed mental health and school safety bill places no new restrictions on law-abiding gun owners," he tweeted.

The NRA, the weapons lobby, immediately expressed its opposition to the text, judging on the contrary that it could be used to “restrict the purchase of legal weapons”. The bill "leaves too much leeway to state officials and also contains undefined and overbroad provisions, inviting interference in our constitutional freedoms", she said.

However, this text remains far below the measures demanded by President Joe Biden, who had publicly shown his support for activists against gun violence by listing the measures he wanted to see adopted but which are absent from the agreement between the senators: ban on assault rifles and high-capacity magazines, background checks for all gun buyers - not just those under 21 - requirement for individuals to keep their guns locked up.

WAR IN UKRAINE

ARM WARRIOR AROUND KALININGRAD RUSSIAN ENCLAVE IN THE HEART OF EUROPE

The Kaliningrad enclave

After the Second World War, the USSR received compensation from Germany for the city of Königsberg, renamed Kaliningrad, with a 70-kilometre corridor named Suwalki to connect it to Belarus, then within the Soviet Union. This small territory of 15,000 kilometers and a million inhabitants is a piece of the Russian Federation, over-armed, wedged between Poland and Lithuania. It is supplied via the corridor named Suwalki straddling the borders of Poland and Lithuania, both members of the European Union and NATO.

However, Lithuania has decided to apply the European sanctions concerning approximately half of the Russian products destined for Kaliningrad. Moscow has called for the immediate lifting of this ban considered "illegal". Indeed, the implementation of this transit was one of the conditions imposed on Lithuania when it joined the EU in 2024.

“A blockade” according to Moscow

Since Monday, June 20, 2022, Russia has therefore reacted with threatening words: if transit is not restored in full, Moscow said, “then Russia reserves the right to act to defend its national interests”. The Russian authorities are promising an appropriate reaction to what Moscow now considers a blockade of the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, while Vilnius has started to apply European sanctions which affect the transit of certain goods transported by train through Lithuanian territory between mainland Russia and the enclave. European retaliatory measures mainly concern coal, metals and construction materials, and will be extended in July to cement and alcohol. Kaliningrad Governor Anton Alikhanov

Russian Chargé d'Affaires in Lithuania Sergey Ryabokon said the transit ban was no longer just a matter of applying sanctions: "This is a blockade, a partial blockade shipments that they implement in this way against our region. » . Words that weigh heavily, because its implementation could be likened to an act of war, Moscow being able to see in this action an additional commitment on the part of NATO.

If Russia decides to retaliate, or even forcibly restore transit from Kaliningrad to Belarus and then to Russia, there is a considerable risk of escalation. The risk is all the greater as Kaliningrad is one of the most militarized places in the world. Including Iskander ballistic missiles, and nuclear weapons. It is also the headquarters of the Russian Baltic Fleet.

The birthplace of the philosopher Kant is becoming a fixation abscess of the Russia-West confrontation..

EARLY HEAT WAVE OVER FRANCE

A new heat wave should affect France from today until this weekend.

An episode described as "extremely early" for the month of June by Météo-France.

Strong heat has already been observed in the south of France and in Spain for several days. They should win the whole of France from Wednesday to Saturday. “The three days of Thursday, Friday and Saturday will probably be the hottest in France.

Nighttime temperatures will become more and more stifling with minimums often reaching or exceeding the threshold of 20°C”, warns Météo France. Temperatures of 35°C to 38°C, particularly high for mid-June, are expected with peaks of 40°C locally.

The “blowtorch of the Sahara”.

This exceptional episode is due in particular to a particular meteorological configuration. The heat wave which is taking place this week paradoxically finds its origin in… the cold. A phenomenon called cold drop is located west of the Iberian Peninsula.

It is a small mass of cold air, a small depression, isolated in the middle of a mass of much warmer air. By rotating on itself, this mass of fresh air acts like a heat pump which brings up hot air from the Sahara. This upwelling is relatively narrow in width and lasts only a few days. Its brevity and its intensity give it the name of “feather of heat” or “blow of blowtorch of the Sahara”.

Between 33 and 40°C this weekend

The heat coming up from Spain will likely be historic over western regions, unsurprisingly in the southwest, but more surprisingly in the northwest as well. Here are the ten major cities that could break records between Thursday and Saturday, with the two hottest days being Friday and Saturday:

Nantes: 37/38 ° C expected Friday and Saturday. Previous June record: 37.1°C on June 30, 2015;

La Roche-sur-Yon: 38 ° C expected Friday. Previous June record: 36.9°C on June 30, 2015;

Rennes: 35/36 ° C expected on Friday. Previous June record: 36.3°C on June 30, 1976;

Bordeaux: 39/40°C forecast for Friday and Saturday. Previous June record: 39.2°C on June 26, 2011;

Biarritz: 39/40°C forecast for Friday. Previous June record: 39.2°C on June 26, 2003;

Toulouse: 39/40 ° C expected Friday. Previous June record: 39.8°C on June 29, 1950;

Lyon: 38/39 ° C expected on Saturday. Previous June record: 38.4°C on June 22, 2003;

Dijon: 37°C expected on Saturday and Sunday. Previous June record: 36.4°C on June 22, 2017;

Paris: 35/36 ° C expected on Saturday. Previous June record: 37.6°C on June 26, 1947;

Lille: 33/34 ° C expected on Saturday. Previous June record: 34.8°C on June 28, 1947.

The forecast values ​​may obviously change slightly between now and then depending on the evolution of the heat wave and the weekend storms. Note that the highest temperature ever recorded in June, 46 ° C in Vérargues in the Hérault on June 28, 2019, should not be reached.

This will be the earliest heat wave ever recorded. The advancement of this type of phenomenon in the calendar as well as its intensity are increased by climate change, according to a majority of climatological and meteorological experts.

RISK OF A SEVENTH WAVE OF COVID-19

IN FRANCE

The new highly transmissible Omicron BA.5 variant raises uncertainty for months to come. It could become dominant across the EU. This variant is notably at the origin of a major epidemic wave in Portugal. The question is now on everyone's mind with all the concerns it brings, due to the increase in SARS-CoV-2 contaminations observed by Public Health France.

Sunday evening, June 12, the figures transmitted by Santé Publique France indicated almost 80,000 new cases of Covid in 24 hours, a figure that is rising sharply.

Thus on June 11, the incidence rate in France was 368.2 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, an increase On June 14 there were 65,425 new confirmed cases, i.e. +462.7% in seven days! Suffice to say that the increase is significant even if it is not yet reflected in terms of hospitalizations: as of June 10, there were 2,589 hospitalizations over the last 7 days (+3%) and 301 critical care admissions over the same period. (-3.5%). This subvariant is not much more violent than the others, but 93% of the observed mortality occurred in people over the age of 80.

“The pandemic is not over” warns the director general of the WHO

If the BA.2 sub-lineage of the Omicron variant is the majority in France (80% of the sequences as of May 23), the detection of BA.4 (1.1%) and BA.5 (18%), which have already had a hard time hit South Africa and Portugal, are on the rise according to the latest Flash survey by Santé Publique France. Will they therefore develop in France and elsewhere in Europe?

This is the whole question that worries the authorities. "The growth advantage between BA.4, BA.5 and BA.2 is comparable to that which we observed between BA.2 and BA.1 in March", specified to Liberation the researcher Mircea Sofonea, epidemiologist at Montpelier. In fact, each new generation of the virus is transmitted faster than the previous one.

“The pandemic is not over, and we will continue to say so until it is,” World Health Organization Director General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said last week. While he stressed that "globally, the number of reported cases and deaths from Covid-19 continues to decline", he also pointed to the weakness of vaccination. “Nearly 18 months after the administration of the first vaccine, 68 countries have still not reached 40% coverage,” he lamented, even though “the supply of vaccines is now sufficient. »

This epidemic rebound, if confirmed and amplified as happened in Portugal, would put France under pressure, in particular its hospital system. Because if the resuscitation services should be able to withstand the shock, those of the emergencies, on the other hand, are in a more complicated situation. Faced with staff shortages, these services recently went on strike to protest against the lack of resources and several of them are already planning to close overnight this summer, even though they are on the front line to manage the arrival of infected people. A congestion in the emergency room and the whole hospital is seized up…

The “exit from the state of health emergency” regime must end on July 31

For the government, the occurrence of a new epidemic wave in the heart of a summer that the French and tourism and event professionals finally hoped was "normal", would fall at the very moment when the "exit from the state of health emergency "must end on July 31. "There is no question today of extending the health emergency regime," said government spokeswoman Olivia Grégoire on Tuesday. A new text should be presented to the Council of Ministers on June 22, to “be able to remain vigilant at the place of the possible rise of Covid-19”.

In addition to the repeated call from the health authorities to reconnect with respect for barrier gestures, and the question of the generalization of a 4th dose of vaccine, a return to restrictions (wearing a mask, gauges, health pass, etc.) is therefore possible…

It is not a question of fearing a phenomenon that is out of control. In South Africa as in Portugal, everything ends up returning to normal without deploying strong measures but at the cost of high mortality, some of which seems avoidable.

LEGISLATIVE A SERIOUS WARNING

FOR MACRONISTS

However, the presidential coalition won by a short margin (25.75%), since “Together!” ahead of the left alliance, the Nupes (25.66%), by barely some 21,000 votes.

If the record abstention (52.49%) is also to be noted, the second round promises to be difficult for the President of the Republic, who would be forced to negotiate alliances to govern freely and pass his reforms.

This first round, which could have been a formality for Emmanuel Macron after his score in the presidential election, was therefore not the expected confirmation. “The absolute majority is not at this stage guaranteed to Together. The most likely, subject to the campaign, is that the presidential majority is relative, with less than 289 seats, even if an absolute majority of a few seats is still possible”, cautiously advances Mathieu Gallard, director of studies at the Ipsos Institute.

It is also the first time under the Fifth Republic that the party of the President of the Republic does not arrive in the lead in the legislative elections in the wake of the presidential election, or even declines between the two ballots.

In 2002, 2007 and 2012, the UMP, then the PS, had indeed exceeded, sometimes very largely, the bar of 30% of the votes in the wake of the election of Jacques Chirac, Nicolas Sarkozy or François Hollande. This time, the outgoing majority is doing much less well than five years ago (La République en Marche and the MoDem had obtained 32.33% of the vote in 2017), and recorded 2 points less than the score of the outgoing president. only seven weeks ago.

Opposite Emmanuel Macron, we find a very high score for the Nupes which should become the second most important group in the National Assembly. With an estimate of 275 to 310 deputies elected for Emmanuel Macron, against 346 outgoing deputies, this is a real setback.

The question that has obsessed the Head of State's advisers since yesterday evening is whether he will obtain the 289 deputies, that is to say an absolute majority.

Reduced room for maneuver

If so, this absolute majority will not be overwhelming. Emmanuel Macron's main partners, François Bayrou and Edouard Philippe, will see their political weight mechanically reinforced. And it will be impossible to pass laws without them. Emmanuel Macron's room for maneuver will therefore be reduced in comparison with the previous five-year term.

And, without an absolute majority, that is to say in the case of a relative majority, not only Bayrou and Philippe will become essential to the president, who will be less free to move. But, in addition, Emmanuel Macron will have no choice but to reach out to other competing parties to try to have a majority. This opening is almost impossible in the direction of Nupes. It is therefore towards the Republicans, who could obtain between 40 and 60 deputies, that Emmanuel Macron will try to turn. In a way, a government of German-style coalitions...

Now opens an era with a stronger parliament, alliances of circumstances and a country more difficult to govern.

In the case of a relative majority

In the event that the coalition of the presidential majority does not largely win, or worse, if it is defeated in the second round of the legislative elections, the consequences would be multiple for Emmanuel Macron.

Two scenarios are then possible.

If “Together!” comes first, but without reaching 289 seats, Emmanuel Macron will have a relative majority in the National Assembly. The scenario would be complicated for the President of the Republic who would then have two options before him. The first would consist in playing the game of alliances and seeking the support of other political formations, in order to have an absolute majority to vote on the texts of law. Some members of the government consider in particular that there is a reserve of votes available on the side of the right.

The second option would be to govern "in a minority" while retaining the Prime Minister of his choice, who would undoubtedly remain Elisabeth Borne if she wins in her Calvados constituency. Emmanuel Macron could choose to govern "in force" by resorting to the controversial article 49-3 which allows the government to adopt a text without submitting it to the vote of the Assembly. The government would nevertheless expose itself to a possible motion of censure, which could bring it down on condition of bringing together a majority of deputies to vote for it.

In the case of cohabitation

The second scenario for Emmanuel Macron, judged as "catastrophic" by one of his supporters, would be the defeat in the second round of the legislative elections for his coalition. This would lead to a cohabitation with the appointment (traditional but non-compulsory) of a new Prime Minister who would naturally be the leader of the opposition, Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

This scenario, the least favorable for the President of the Republic, would deprive him of almost all of his powers. Emmanuel Macron would nevertheless retain the possibility of dissolving the National Assembly and calling new elections to try to recover his majority. A risky tactic that proved to be a loser for Jacques Chirac in 1997, sanctioned by voters and forced to live with Lionel Jospin for the last five years of his seven-year term.

According to OpinionWay's projections, Emmanuel Macron should obtain between 260 and 300 deputies, which gives him about a one in two chance of obtaining an absolute majority. ..For his part, Jean-Luc Mélenchon should be able to obtain between 170 and 200 seats, knowing that the Nupes candidates have few reserves of votes for the second.

Projections which will be confirmed this Sunday, June 19 on the occasion of the second round of the legislative elections, which could mark a turning point in the policy of Emmanuel Macron.

BTS THE EXHAUSTED SOUTH KOREAN K-POP BOYSBAND TAKES A BREAK

Creative burnout.

For BTS, who have been churning out music nonstop for nine years, creative burnout must have weighed in on their decision to take a break, says Billboard K-pop columnist Jeff Benjamin. in the past, it seems more “meaningful”. The seven boys remain under contract with their label until 2026, which is “essential to keep them together”, continued Jeff Benjamin.

Asked during a dinner, organized to celebrate their ninth anniversary, the seven artists notably pointed out their busy and non-stop work rhythm which does not allow them to take the time to think about their future development, solo but also as a group.

“I've always thought BTS was different from other groups, but the problem with K-pop and the whole star system is that they don't give you time to mature. You have to keep churning out music non-stop,” RM said at that dinner.

Since their debut in 2013, the seven members of BTS have, in parallel with their common career, developed individual projects. If J-Hope, Jimin, Jin, Jungkook, RM, Suga and V confide that this decision to take a break was difficult to make, they nevertheless reveal that their albums and solo singles will quickly see the light of day.

“We can't stop thinking about our audience. No matter what, we want to be the kind of artists that fans remember. We are going through a tough time right now as we are trying to find our identity and it is an exhausting and long process,” Jimin said.

J-Hope will be the first of the group to formalize this new individual start. The artist will headline the American Lollapalooza festival on July 31.

An unspoken reason?

Behind the decision of the South Koreans of BTS to take a break would also hide an unspoken reason, namely the compulsory military service according to some specialists. Any South Korean man under the age of 30 must indeed perform two years of military service, in particular because of the threat posed by North Korea. The prospect of conscription is getting closer for the members of BTS, especially for Jin, 29 years old, who must enlist by next year or risk being put in prison.

Seoul grants exemptions from military service to some top athletes, such as Olympic medalists, and classical music artists, but not to K-pop stars. “As a young South Korean, I believe that service military is a natural course. And as I have always said, I will answer my country's call when it arrives," Jin said in 2020. "The issue of military service was clearly present in the announcement," said Lee Moon-won, a K-pop culture commentator.

Allowing the band members to focus on their own solo careers was "a logical decision," he adds, since the call-up of the seven boys will disrupt the band's lineup for years to come.

LEGISLATIVE THREE UNEQUAL STRATEGIES

FOR AN UNCERTAIN RESULT

As the uncertainties about the outcome of the legislative elections on June 12 and 19 have never been so numerous and that obtaining a majority of deputies supporting the new elected president, Emmanuel Macron, today seems uncertain, it seems instructive to return to the strategies put in place by the three main political forces resulting from the presidential election. On the one hand to better understand and analyze the current situation when abstention looks set to be historically high for legislative elections. On the other, because the strategies put in place, which turned out to be very different from each other, should have a major impact on the outcome of the election.

The question of temporality

A few minutes after the election of Emmanuel Macron, Jean-Luc Mélenchon launched the legislative battle by insisting on the idea that these constituted the 3ᵉ round of the presidential election. He thus posed as the first opponent, without giving Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen time to rejoice or digest their results of the second round of the presidential election.

The weeks following Emmanuel Macron's election were dominated, in the media and in public opinion, by negotiations between left-wing parties and the establishment of the New Popular Economic and Social Union (Nupes ) while the National Rally rejected the advances of Reconquest! and that Marine Le Pen decided to go on vacation.

Emmanuel Macron seemed to openly agree to let go, arguing that there was a need for post-presidential election democratic breathing.

The idea was probably also to miss the media enthusiasm caused by this new union of the left. And to regain the initiative when appointing his or her Prime Minister when the time between the presidential election and the legislative elections is this year two weeks longer and a re-election generally provokes less enthusiasm than a first accession to power.

Very different positions

Emmanuel Macron's re-election as president has, by his own admission, positioned him as the president of all French people and inevitably limited his role and action as a clan leader.

While Jean-Luc Mélenchon's speech on the evening of the first round of the presidential election seemed to mark the announcement of a handover and a withdrawal, on the contrary we are witnessing a strategy of strong emphasis of the leader of La France Insoumise (LFI).

If this has prevented certain left-wing personalities from joining this union movement (Carole Delgas, José Bové, Yannick Jadot, etc.), this personalization undoubtedly aims to mobilize, during the legislative elections, voters who are above all seduced by the personality and the leadership of the rebellious chief during the presidential election.

By claiming the post of Prime Minister if the Nupes were to obtain a majority in the legislative elections, Jean-Luc Mélenchon positioned himself at the national level. From this point of view, his decision, criticized by his adversaries, not to stand again in the legislative elections finally allowed him to assume a position above the parties, which a local field campaign would undoubtedly have made more complicated. .

By running in the legislative elections, Marine Le Pen has chosen a very different strategy. Although a finalist in the presidential election, her candidacy positions her at a more local level and legitimizes the idea, which she herself defended, that Emmanuel Macron will necessarily obtain the majority to govern for five years.

Alliance strategies and dynamics

The different alliance strategies no doubt also explain the current uncertainties. If the establishment of Ensemble has given rise to some friction and some concerns from some of its members, it has only formalized and organised, with a view to a future term of office, support which was already stakeholders in Emmanuel Macron's candidacy for the presidential election.

Despite criticism and dissidence, the creation of the Nupes gave rise to a true alliance of coopetition, by bringing together forces which had on the contrary opposed and competed with each other. It can therefore claim a new unifying approach in comparison with the last presidential elections and refer to the electoral successes encountered by the leftist unions that preceded it (Popular Front, Common Program, Plural Left).

By refusing to ally with Reconquest! Marine Le Pen's National Rally took the opposite view of LFI's strategy of unity and failed to create, if we are to believe the polls and outside of important strongholds in the north, the dynamic that his qualification in the second round of the presidential election could have generated with a view to the legislative elections.

Alliance strategies and dynamics

In reality, the various polls dedicated to the legislative elections have not shown any significant change in terms of voting intentions at the national level since the situation of the opposing forces was made official.

Together and the Nupes are announced neck and neck around 27/28% in the first round, when the National Rally is between 19% and 21% and Reconquest! between 5% and 6%.

But the projections in terms of the number of deputies from the second round have on the other hand evolved and seem to show a dynamic in favor of Nupes while Together was announced as a large majority a few weeks ago. The union of the left project carried by Jean-Luc Mélenchon seems to seduce part of the left-wing electorate marked by divisions and the new absence, after 2017, of one of its representatives in the second round of the election. presidential.

But beyond this mobilization, it is above all the choice of Elisabeth Borne and the constitution of the new government that raise questions from a strategic point of view.

The crucial choice of the Prime Minister and the government

In 2017, Emmanuel Macron had chosen to appoint as Prime Minister, Edouard Philippe, a politician admittedly little known to the general public but seasoned in electoral contests, to lead the battle of the legislative elections. And his second choice, during the reshuffle in 2020, was for a profile of a senior civil servant and technocrat, simply elected local, with Jean Castex. This decision seemed to give credence to the idea that it was necessary to appoint a political profile at the start of the five-year term in order to be able to rely on a personality accustomed to the harshness of a national electoral campaign.

By choosing to appoint Elisabeth Borne, whose CV is closer to that of Jean Castex than that of Edouard Philippe, Emmanuel Macron proceeded differently and took the risk of leaving the field open to Jean-Luc's media omnipresence strategy. Mélenchon and Nupes.

Elisabeth Borne and the Renaissance candidate of the 3ᵉ district of Côtes-d'Armor Olivier Allier on a market in Lamballe as part of the electoral campaign for the legislative ballot.

The appointment of the new government should make it possible to highlight the priorities of the new five-year term (ecology, purchasing power, etc.) and regain control from a media point of view. But the choice of Elisabeth Borne and the confirmation of several heavyweights in key positions did not help, despite some notable strokes of brilliance quickly tarnished by controversy (Pap Ndiaye at National Education or Damien Abad at Solidarity) , to trigger a new dynamic.

Emmanuel Macron's recent trips certainly testify to a desire to refocus the legislative elections around his project and his person in order to succeed in winning. Will this involvement be sufficient to obtain the majority and avoid cohabitation?

If the first-past-the-post system in two rounds of the legislative elections makes projection difficult and should theoretically favor the candidates placed in the center of the political spectrum, it nevertheless seems to give credence to the idea that the legislative elections have indeed become the 3ᵉ round of the French presidential election..

Article by Olivier Guyottot , teacher-researcher in strategy and political science, INSEEC Grande École, published in TheConversation

TAIWAN THE TONE IS RISING BETWEEN BEIJING

 AND WASHINGTON

It is that tensions between Beijing and Taiwan have increased in recent weeks, against a backdrop of war in Ukraine.

The war waged by Russia to subjugate or dismember Ukraine has in fact fueled concerns about an imminent use of force by the People's Republic of China against Taiwan in order to achieve the "Chinese dream of reunification national". A concern all the greater since, three weeks before the invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping had published a declaration of total solidarity during the visit of the Russian president to Beijing.

The thorny issue of Taiwan

China considers this democratic and self-governing island of 24 million to be one of its historical provinces, even if it does not control it, and has increased pressure against Taipei in recent years, for example through campaigns incursions into the Taiwan Air Defense Zone. These actions have increased tensions with the United States, while they are already high on many other levels (China Sea, nuclear in particular).

"Those who pursue Taiwan independence with the aim of dividing China will certainly not achieve their ends," said Wei Fenghe, adding that "no one should ever underestimate the determination and ability of the Chinese armed forces. to safeguard its territorial integrity". According to the spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Defense, said Friday during a meeting with Mr. Austin on the sidelines of this forum: "If anyone dared to separate Taiwan from China, the army China would not hesitate for a moment to start a war, whatever the cost. »

A geostrategic challenge for China

The autonomy of Taiwan under US protection is indeed, in the eyes of the Chinese authorities, the anchor point of a barrier closing the seas of China along the “first chain of islands”. The textbook on the military geography of the Taiwan Strait published in 2013 by the Beijing Defense Academy contains a very explicit presentation of the geostrategic stake constituted by the possession of Taiwan: control of the island is vital to guard against a blockade, at the same time as it would threaten the communications of Japan; and it would provide the People's Army Navy with free access to the Pacific Ocean and a decisive means of exerting pressure on the states of the region, report researchers William Murray and Ian Easton.

The political argument

As real as the strategic and geopolitical stakes in question are, an additional dimension would intervene according to Pierre-Yves Hénin, professor emeritus in economics, University Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, in the Chinese motivation to put an end to the status of Taiwan.

This authoritarian regime sees a threat in the democracies located on its doorstep, showing the Chinese that they can live perfectly well other than in dictatorship. “Academics Kelly Brown and Kalley Wu Tzu-Hui point out that Taiwan now presents an alternative model of modernity and democracy in the Chinese world;

this is, according to them, the main reason why Beijing has a problem with Taiwan – “Trouble with Taiwan”, an expression chosen as the title of their book published in 2019,” he continues.

LEGISLATIVES EN FRANCE

VERS UN DUEL ENTRE ENSEMBLE ! DE MACRON

ET LA NUPES DE MELANCHON ?

Les 12 et 19 juin 2O22, les Français éliront leurs 577 députés. « Troisième tour » de la présidentielle attendu par les oppositions, il sera déterminant pour l'ensemble des forces politiques. Depuis l’inversion du calendrier électoral en 2001, jamais un président élu n’a perdu les législatives. Mais à l’approche du premier tour, les macronistes et la Nupes de Mélenchon sont au coude à coude

D'après le dernier sondage Elabe pour L'Express et BFMTV, en partenariat avec SFR, LR ne récolterait que 12,5 % des voix au niveau national, contre 25 % et 24,5 % pour l'alliance des partis de gauche et la confédération rassemblant LREM, le MoDem et Horizons. S'oriente-t-on vers un coude-à-coude entre entre les macronistes et le chef de file des Insoumis reléguant dans l’ombre les autres formations, y compris le Rassemblement national ?

Les LR résisteront-ils ?

Après la bérézina des députés PS en 2017, va-t-on assister à la Saint-Barthélemy des députés LR sortants , s'interroge une journaliste.

Les Républicains « devraient en effet être les grand perdants » de ces élections législatives. Le parti a choisi l'indépendance : une ligne périlleuse au regard des 4,8 % obtenus par Valérie Pécresse. Quelques-uns des 101 élus sortants ont rallié le chef de l'État et une quinzaine de candidats bénéficieront d'un traitement particulier en n'ayant pas à affronter de représentant de la majorité. Les autres misent sur leur ancrage territorial. « Une partie des sortants ont été élus dans des circonscriptions semi-rurales et l'ont emporté en 2017 face à la macronie triomphante, il n'y a donc pas de raison d'être pessimiste », indique le député européen Brice Hortefeux. LR ne donnera en tout cas pas de consigne de vote au soir du premier tour des législatives si ses candidats ne sont pas qualifiés, dans le cas d'un duel entre LREM et Nupes, a assuré mardi 7 juin le président du groupe LR au Sénat, Bruno Retailleau.

Un mode de scrutin défavorable pour le Rassemblement national

Marine Le Pen, quant à elle, elle a jeté en quelque sorte l'éponge malgré sa seconde position au premier tour et ses 13,2 millions de voix du 24 avril, ne réapparaissant que ces derniers jours. C'est que les ambitions du RN, qui a refusé de s'allier à Reconquête, le parti d'Éric Zemmour (finalement candidat à Saint-Tropez), se révèlent raisonnables dans la mesure où le mode de scrutin lui est très défavorable. Autoproclamée « candidate de la vérité », Marine Le Pen répète d'ailleurs que la logique des institutions veut que le président de la République obtienne une majorité. Alors qu'elle a obtenu 41,4 % des voix au second tour et plus de 55 % dans 87 circonscriptions, elle s'est fixé comme objectif d'obtenir au moins quinze élus, ce qui permettrait à son parti de constituer un groupe à l'Assemblée.

En effet depuis l'instauration du quinquennat en 2002 et l'inversion du calendrier électoral - l'élection présidentielle se tient juste avant les élections législatives et non l'inverse, afin de donner au président de la République une majorité cohérente à l'Assemblée nationale - le vainqueur de la course à l'Elysée a pour le moment systématiquement obtenu une majorité pour mener à bien son programme. De quoi faire des législatives une élection ratifiant le résultat de la présidentielle.

Ainsi, en 2002, dans la foulée de sa réélection face à Jean-Marie Le Pen, Jacques Chirac a retrouvé une majorité à l’Assemblée nationale. En 2007, Nicolas Sarkozy, élu face à Ségolène Royal, a, lui aussi, gagné les législatives. En 2012, la victoire de François Hollande s’est doublée d’une vague rose au Palais Bourbon. Quant à Emmanuel Macron en 2017, il a remporté les législatives avec 308 députés élus.

Mais cette mécanique serait-elle sur le point de s’enrayer pour la première fois? C’est ce que veut croire Jean-Luc Mélenchon , faisant habilement de ce rendez-vous le «troisième tour» de la présidentielle lui qui se voit désormais Premier ministre. Dès lors, que disent les sondages? Sur ce point, les sondages donnent la majorité présidentielle et la Nupes au coude à coude. Vendredi dernier, l’institut Cluster 17 plaçait la Nupes en tête (31%) devant Ensemble! (27%), le RN (19%) et LR (10%).Mais Selon une enquête de l’Ifop du 31mai, c’est Ensemble! qui arriverait en tête avec 27% devant la Nupes (25%) et le RN (21%). Selon ce sondage, qui confirme la tendance de celui publié hier par l’Institut Harris (26 % et 24 %), les marcheurs et leurs alliés obtiendraient ainsi entre 275 et 310 sièges, contre 170 à 205 pour la Nupes et 20 à 50 pour le RN. La majorité absolue étant fixée à 289 sièges, Emmanuel Macron pourrait donc ne pas l’avoir.

Vers un duel entre la Nupes de Mélanchon et Ensemble ! de Macron

Dans cette dernière ligne droite, les sondages confirment ce duel entre les macronistes réunis sous la bannière Ensemble! et Jean-Luc Mélenchon, désormais à la tête de la Nupes, la Nouvelle alliance populaire écologiste et sociale qui regroupe LFI, EELV, le PS et le PC.

Car il faut désormais compter avec cette union purement «électoraliste» qu'est la Nupes.

Les députés de la Nupes (Nouvelle Union populaire écologique et sociale) pourrait bien se retrouver majoritaires dans l'hémicycle. L'ex-socialiste, qui ne se représente pas, a d'ores et déjà réussi un exploit en réconciliant (plus ou moins) quatre formations politiques : LFI, EELV, PC 4 et PS. « Nous sommes en train d'écrire une histoire politique de la France », a-t-il assuré. Sorti en tête le 10 avril dans 106 circonscriptions et majoritaire dans 43, il estime qu'il s'agit d'« une bonne base de départ ». Les projections donnent ses candidats présents au second tour dans plus de 300 circonscriptions. « Le fait que la gauche se soit unie et qu'elle puisse ainsi prétendre à avoir beaucoup d'élus, voire pourquoi pas, une majorité relative ou absolue à l'Assemblée nationale, est plutôt un facteur de mobilisation voire de surmobilisation de son électorat », relève Jean-Yves Dormagen, professeur de Science politique à l'Université de Montpellier et spécialiste de la question de l'abstention.

Quelle majorité pour Emmanuel Macron ?

En 2017, le chef de l'État avait réussi à se constituer une solide majorité avec 350 élus dont 308 LREM. Il souhaite réitérer l'exploit. Dans l'histoire de la Ve République, les présidents n'ont-il pas toujours gagné les législatives organisées dans la foulée de leur élection ? Après d'interminables négociations, un accord a également été trouvé entre les partenaires qui partiront sous la bannière Ensemble. Le parti majoritaire s'est réservé 400 circonscriptions et en a accordé une centaine à ses alliés du MoDem et 58 à Horizons, le parti d'Édouard Philippe. Alors que plus d'un tiers des candidats de 2017 étaient issus de la société civile et ne disposaient d'aucun mandat, les 505 candidats déjà investis sont de plus pour la plupart rodés, notamment du fait que plus de 90 % des députés sortants ont été reconduits.

Mais face aux sondages et à la campagne offensive de Mélenchon , Emmanuel Macron bat à nouveau le terrain. Après avoir agité le chiffon brun pendant la présidentielle, le chef de l'État agite le chiffon rouge, multipliant les attaques contre Jean-Luc Mélenchon, désigné comme l'adversaire numéro un.  Après deux déplacements la semaine dernière, à Cherbourg sur la santé, puis à Marseille sur l’éducation, il est ce jeudi 9 juin 2022 , demain, dans le Tarn, à Gaillac, pour évoquer la sécurité du quotidien. Une visite qui intervient alors que les forces de l’ordre sont de nouveau montrées honteusement du doigt et dans la ligne de mire de… la Nupes. Samedi, à Paris, la passagère d’un véhicule dont le conducteur en semi-liberté, sans permis et sous l'effet de stupéfiants, a refusé d'obtempérer à un contrôle, a été tuée par les tirs des policiers .« Je ne vois pas comment ce puzzle de circonstances qu'est la Nupes peut l'emporter », estime Richard Ferrand, le patron de l'Assemblée nationale, confiant.

L' arbitre du scrutin : la forte abstention attendue

Après avoir atteint un record en 2017, c'est l'abstention en fait qui sera à nouveau l'arbitre du scrutin, les 12 et 19 juin. En effet pour se maintenir au second tour, les candidats devront réaliser au moins 12,5% des inscrits. Ce qui, dans la perspective d’une forte abstention, rend les projections particulièrement difficiles. Selon la dernière enquête d'Ipsos Sopra-Steria pour le Cevipof, la Fondation Jean Jaurès et Le Monde publiée ce mercredi 8 juin, l'abstention pourrait en effet atteindre dimanche entre 52% et 56%, avec un point moyen à 54%.

Une abstention élevée qui ne sera pas sans conséquence sur le scrutin puisqu'elle éliminera pratiquement toute possibilité de triangulaire et imposera donc probablement des duels dans toutes les circonscriptions... En 2017, déjà, il n'y avait eu qu'une seule triangulaire, contre 34 en 2012.« Avec cette situation, on aura uniquement des duels au second tour », parie également Gérard Grunberg, directeur de recherche émérite au CNRS et directeur du site Telos.

Une faible participation, en favorisant les duels, pourrait avantager la majorité sortante regroupée sous la bannière Ensemble !, davantage susceptible de bénéficier du « vote utile », c'est-à-dire des votes des électeurs souhaitant faire barrage à un autre candidat. « On peut estimer que le candidat de la majorité arrivera dans les deux premiers, sauf quelques exceptions », prédit Jean Petaux, évoquant la mobilisation attendue « assez forte » de l'électorat d'Emmanuel. De plus le programme économique de la Nupes étant radical -Retraite à 60 ans, augmentation du smic à 1 400 euros, blocage des prix des biens de première nécessité et formule à l'emporte-pièce comme « la police tue » , certains pourraient pencher vers les macronistes.

Quoi qu'il en soit rien n'est  joué dans ce duel entre la Nupes et Ensemble...

PROCES DU 13 NOVEMBRE PEINE MAXIMALE CONTRE SALAH ABDESLAM ET NEUF AUTRES ACCUSES DEMANDEE PAR LE PARQUET NATIONAL ANTITERRORISTE

Au bout d’un réquisitoire de trois jours, l’accusation a demandé ce vendredi des sanctions exemplaires, dont la plus lourde existant dans le Code pénal pour Salah Abdeslam, le survivant des commandos.Le Parquet national antiterroriste (Pnat) a ainsi demandé la peine maximale contre Salah Abdeslam et neuf autres accusés. Les autres peines requises s’échelonnent de cinq à trente ans de prison ferme.

« Votre verdict ne rendra pas leur tranquillité aux victimes, il ne guérira pas les blessures physiques et psychiques, il ne ramènera pas les morts, prévient Camille Hennetier en concluant le réquisitoire fleuve des trois avocats généraux du Parquet national antiterroriste (PNAT) entamé mercredi. Mais il dira que la justice et le droit ont le dernier mot. »

Les vingt hommes accusés d’avoir aidé et soutenu les tueurs du 13 novembre 2015 connaissent, depuis hier, les sanctions que le Parquet national antiterroriste (Pnat) requiert à leur encontre, au nom du peuple français. Le verdict de la cour d’assises spéciale tombera le 29 juin.

« Leur sang sur les mains »

Sans surprise, le parquet demande la réclusion criminelle à perpétuité « incompressible » contre le Franco-Marocain Salah Abdeslam, 32 ans, « soldat de l’armée islamique, seul co-auteur survivant des 130 morts du 13-Novembre. Il a leur sang sur les mains, comme d’autres l’ont sur la conscience », considèrent Camille Hennetier, Nicolas Braconnay et Nicolas Le Bris, magistrats du parquet. Selon eux, Salah Abdeslam, « qui avait déposé trois bombes humaines » – trois kamikazes – devant le Stade de France, a minutieusement préparé « ces massacres » avec Abdelhamid Abaaoud, tué dans l’assaut de Saint-Denis, le 18 novembre 2015. L’accusation a consacré de longs développements à Salah Abdeslam avec une obsession : démonter le rôle de « prétendu invité surprise » des attentats mis en avant à l’audience. 

« Son engagement djihadiste est ancien. Rien ne permet de dire qu’il a été la marionnette de son frère », rappelait dès mercredi Nicolas Le Bris. Le PNAT souligne aussi son rôle primordial dans l’acheminement des membres du commando vers la Belgique. « C’est une mission clé : celui qui rapatrie est nécessairement quelqu’un en qui la cellule porte toute sa confiance », relève Camille Hennetier. L’arrivée par vague des futurs assassins entre le 1 er septembre et le 14 octobre acte « la constitution d’une véritable katiba au cœur de l’Europe ».

Pas de circonstances atténuantes non plus, aux yeux de l’accusation, à l’encontre des compagnons de cavale d’Abdeslam entre novembre 2015 et le 22 mars 2016, date des attentats de Bruxelles. La perpétuité est donc requise aussi contre Sofien Ayari, 28 ans, et Osama Krayem, 29 ans, que l’accusation suspecte d’avoir visé un attentat à l’aéroport d’Amsterdam.

Quant à Mohamed Abrini, « l’homme au chapeau » des attentats de Bruxelles, « parti comme un voleur » dans la nuit du 12 au 13 novembre en obligeant la cellule à se réorganiser, « son renoncement ne saurait s’analyser comme un désistement volontaire, et il est sans effet sur ses actes de complicité antérieurs. Ce qui va se passer le soir du 13 novembre, il le souhaitait ardemment », cingle Nicolas Le Bris. L’accusation a néanmoins tenu compte de sa fuite en assortissant la perpétuité requise à une période de sûreté de vingt-deux ans.

Les avocats généraux du Pnat requièrent également la perpétuité contre Mohamed Bakkali, 35 ans, qui a déjà écopé de vingt-cinq ans de prison pour l’attentat, en août 2015, du train Thalys. Et contre l’accusé détenu par la Turquie, le parquet demande trente ans.

Perpétuité requise, encore, pour les cinq grands absents de ce procès, supposés morts en Syrie et donc jugés par défaut. Parmi eux, Oussama Atar, considéré « comme le cerveau des attentats, le cadre supérieur de la terreur ». Idem pour les frères Fabien et Jean-Michel Clain, Normands à un moment de leur vie « et qui avaient revendiqué au téléphone – en chantant – les carnages de Paris ». Pour neuf autres accusés, âgés de 29 à 41 ans, poursuivis pour « participation à une association de malfaiteurs terroristes », les peines demandées s’échelonnent de cinq, six (trois accusés), huit, neuf, seize et vingt ans de réclusion pour les deux plus impliqués selon le Pnat.

Si le parquet admet que les accusés ne partagent pas tous les mêmes convictions djihadistes, l’idéologie est à ses yeux au cœur de ce dossier. « On n’est pas condamné pour ce que l’on pense, souligne Camille Hennetier. Mais on devra l’être pour ce que l’on a fait au nom de ce que l’on pense. »

Et qui pourra oublier ce terrible bilan ? Quatre-vingt-dix morts au Bataclan, trente-neuf sur les terrasses de café, un au Stade de France. Deux blessés, une femme et un homme, se sont donné la mort depuis. 397 rescapés ou proches de victimes sont venus témoigner de leur traumatisme depuis septembre. La défense plaidera à partir de lundi.

« Ce soir d’épouvante du 13 novembre 2015, les djihadistes ont tiré à l’aveugle, faisant tomber les victimes comme des dominos, les déshumanisant, les traitant comme des animaux », avait rappelé Nicolas Le Bris en début d’audience.

COVID 19 VERS UNE SEPTIEME VAGUE EPIDEMIQUE AVEC LES SOUS-VARIANTS BA.4 ET BA.5 EN FRANCE ?

Le Covid-19 n’a pas fini de se réinventer pour continuer de circuler. Les sous-variants du coronavirus, BA.4 et BA.5 causent une énième flambée de l’épidémie en Afrique du Sud et une sixième vague au Portugal. Le nombre de contaminations au Covid-19 connaît un léger rebond depuis une semaine en France.Les sous-variants BA.4 et BA.5 entraîneront-ils une nouvelle vague épidémique en France ?

Une progression de BA.4 et BA.5 en France

Après une nette décrue du nombre de cas positifs au mois d’avril et de mai, le début du mois de juin voit cet indicateur significatif repartir à la hausse. Les dernières données de Santé publique France, mises en forme par Covid Tracker, dénombrent 22 952 personnes testées positives au coronavirus le 7 juin, soit une augmentation de 29,3 % en moyenne sur sept jours. « Il semble que l’on reparte sur une nouvelle vague » de coronavirus, avait affirmé vendredi 3 juin sur Franceinfo le professeur Antoine Flahault, épidémiologiste, directeur de l’Institut de santé globale à la faculté de médecine de l’université de Genève. L’arrivée des sous-variants d’Omicron, BA.4 et BA.5, pourrait expliquer cette augmentation des cas.

Certes la majorité des cas en France provient à 94% du sous-variant BA.2 d’Omicron, les deux sous-variants gagnent cependant du terrain. Leur détection est bien en augmentation : 0,8 % pour BA.4 et 5 % pour BA.5 dans la dernière enquête Flash de Santé publique France (semaine 20), contre 0,5 % et 1,5 % pour Flash semaine 19. « La circulation des sous-variants BA.4 et BA.5 est en progression exponentielle », juge l’épidémiologiste Antoine Flahault, directeur de l’Institut de santé globale (université de Genève). C’est bel et bien cette multiplication de ces souches qui pourrait causer la septième vague.

La progression des sous-variants est donc très surveillée. Déjà, le 13 mai, le Centre européen de prévention et de contrôle des maladies (ECDC) lançait l’alerte, les classant comme « variants préoccupants » et les jugeant susceptibles de s’imposer en Europe et « d’entraîner une augmentation globale significative des cas ».

Ces deux variants qui sont en train de progresser en France ont bien été la cause d’un rebond de l’épidémie au Portugal en mai. Selon les données d’Our World in Data, une plateforme reconnue pour le recensement des données internationales pour la pandémie du Covid-19, le Portugal a en effet connu un pic de près de 3 000 cas pour un million d’habitants au 2 juin, pour cette vague de contaminations portée par les deux sous-variants BA.4 et BA.5.Un niveau dix fois plus élevé que celui d’environ 300 cas positifs pour un million d’habitants en France le même jour. Mais bien inférieur à son pic pour la première vague d’Omicron BA.1 en janvier, qui a provoqué plus de 6 000 cas pour un million d’habitants fin janvier au Portugal.

Le scénario pour les semaines à venir en France

Selon l’épidémiologiste Antoine Flahault, « on devrait voir une augmentation de circulation du virus en France » dans les jours à venir, liée à ces deux sous-variants. Mais pour lui, « les Français triplement vaccinés devraient bien passer cette vague comme ils ont bien passé la vague BA.1 et BA.2. » « Le port du masque doit être cependant largement recommandé aux personnes vulnérables et encouragé pour les personnes en contact avec elles. »

Face à ce scénario « fortement probable » d’une reprise prochaine de la circulation du coronavirus en France, les autorités sanitaires recommandent cependant un nouveau rappel de vaccin à l’automne, efficace face à ces sous-variants.

L’objectif ? « Anticiper » pour « limiter l’impact d’une future vague, en particulier sur les plus fragiles », réduire la mortalité « associée au Covid-19 et la diffusion de l’épidémie et maintenir les capacités du système de soin et les besoins vitaux de fonctionnement du pays », a expliqué fin mai la Haute Autorité de Santé (HAS),

LA GUERRE EN UKRAINE VA LOURDEMENT PESER

 SUR LA CROISSANCE ET L'INFLATION 

DANS LE MONDE SELON L'OCDE

Dans ses dernières prévisions de mercredi, l'organisation internationale a doublé sa prévision d'inflation pour ses pays membres en 2022 à 8,5%.

Les conséquences de la guerre en Ukraine pourraient engendrer une flambée de l'inflation de 8,5% parmi les pays membres de l'OCDE en 2022, alerte l'organisation internationale dans ses dernières prévisions économiques mercredi, un niveau deux fois plus élevé que celui qu'elle anticipait en décembre.

La hausse des prix devrait ensuite ralentir en 2023, prévient l'OCDE, qui regroupe 38 pays développés à travers la planète, tout en mettant en garde contre une aggravation de ces perspectives en cas de nouveaux chocs économiques.

Une croissance mondiale pour 2022 abaissée à 3%

La croissance mondiale va fortement ressentir les conséquences de la guerre en Ukraine cette année, a également mis en garde l'organisation, faisant passer son anticipation de croissance à 3% contre 4,5% en décembre dernier. Particulièrement affectée, la zone euro devrait enregistrer une hausse de 2,6% de son PIB contre 4,3% prévus précédemment, et la France par exemple une progression de 2,4% contre 4,2% imaginés en décembre par l'organisation internationale basée à Paris.

«Le monde paiera un lourd prix à la guerre russe contre l'Ukraine», a alerté la numéro deux et cheffe économiste de l'OCDE, Laurence Boone, dans un texte introductif à ces prévisions intitulé «le prix de la guerre». «Une crise humanitaire se déroule sous nos yeux, laissant des milliers de personnes décédées, forçant des millions de réfugiés à fuir leur foyer et menaçant une reprise économique qui était en chemin après deux années de pandémie», poursuit-elle.

Une facture qui change entre les zones géographiques

La facture de la guerre varie nettement selon les zones géographique: la zone euro voit sa prévision de croissance nettement réduite à 2,6% contre 4,3% en décembre, avec un plongeon pour l'Allemagne à 1,9% (-2,2 points) et la France à 2,4% (-1,8 point). Le Royaume-Uni s'en sort plutôt bien cette année avec 3,6% anticipés (-1,1%) mais cale complètement à 0% concernant la prévision 2023, contre 2,1 anticipés auparavant.

Les États-Unis devraient quant à eux connaître en 2022 une croissance de 2,5%, contre 3,7% attendus en décembre, et la Chine de 4,4% (contre 5,1%). Jugée encore «temporaire» en septembre 2021 par l'OCDE, l'inflation s'est nettement tendue avec la persistance des problèmes dans les chaînes d'approvisionnement et la flambée des prix sur l'énergie, les aliments et les métaux, à la suite de la guerre.

Si l'OCDE voit ces pressions s'apaiser l'an prochain elle prévient cependant qu'au regard de l'incertitude ambiante, celles-ci pourraient encore s'aggraver.

Or une inflation qui s'emballe pourrait entraîner des hausses brutales de taux d'intérêt par les banques centrales, menaçant d'autant plus une reprise économique déjà chancelante, craint l'organisation.

LABOR SHORTAGE

A THREAT TO THE HOLIDAYS

Swimming pools with closed doors, crowded airports due to a lack of ground staff and summer camps canceled at the last minute for lack of facilitators ?

"It's a dark scenario, tempers Thierry Grégoire, president of Umih-Seasonals, the main employers' union in the hotel and catering industry. But it is very likely that we will have another organization of work this summer. Restaurants may close in the evening, or one or two days a week, or reduce their opening hours.

As for hotels, they may offer housekeeping every other day. Everyone will adapt. The first troubles could start at the airport. Aéroports de Paris (ADP) is concerned about the lack of maintenance technicians and security guards. Endless queues at baggage checks and flight delays are to be feared. Once at the seaside, vacationers could also see the red flag raised at the water's edge. Three quarters of aquatic structures are struggling to recruit for the summer. The risk ?

Closed swimming pools, pools open a few hours a day only and a very low offer of swimming lessons. Homair, a specialist in outdoor accommodation, is struggling to find the 300 seasonal workers it lacks in all areas (reception, sports activities, maintenance, upkeep, etc.).

Finally, some parents who planned to send their offspring to summer camp could become disillusioned. Because the directors of centers are tearing their hair out to find facilitators – not always trained – to supervise the stays.

600,000 seasonal workers needed

So the professionals pull out all the stops to unearth rare gems. Each summer, an average of 600,000 seasonal workers must be recruited (including 300,000 in the hotel and catering industry alone). All these positions are far from being filled, even if no official figure is communicated. To attract candidates, the bosses offer salaries above the minimum wage and benefits (days off, uninterrupted hours, accommodation, meals, etc.).

Overheated, temp agencies are trying to find motivated staff, sometimes failing to be qualified. But students – an essential resource for summer jobs – are shying away from overly physical, restrictive contracts this year. Waiters, lifeguards, summer camp leaders, security guards...

The summer of 2022 promises to be complicated to manage for tourism professionals, who are struggling to recruit motivated staff.

THE FUTURE OF BORIS JOHNSON AT STAKE

BY A MOTION OF DEFIANCE FROM HIS PARTY

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, weakened by months of Downing Street holiday scandals during lockdowns, will face a vote of no confidence from Conservative Party MPs on Monday night.

"The threshold of 15% of parliamentarians requesting a vote of confidence from the leader of the Conservative Party has been exceeded," said Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 committee in charge of internal organizational matters, in a press release. It took 54 letters from MPs to trigger this vote.

The ballot will be held between 6 p.m. and 8 p.m. (local time) (between 7 p.m. and 9 p.m.) and the result announced in stride.

“The Prime Minister welcomes the opportunity to present his case to MPs and will remind them that there is no more formidable political force than when they are united and focused on the issues that matter to voters . »

“(The vote) tonight offers an opportunity to end months of speculation and allow the government to draw a line and move on by responding to the priorities of the people”, reacted the spokesperson for Boris Johnson in a statement.

If the Prime Minister receives the confidence of less than 50% of his troops, he will lose the leadership of his party, which will have to choose a new Prime Minister.

If he wins, no other vote of no confidence can be organized for a year, even if Graham Brady affirms that it would be "technically possible" to change this internal rule of the Conservative party.

A drop in popularity with electoral consequences

Far from putting an end to the scandal that has plagued the Conservative government for six months, the publication last week of an administrative report detailing the extent of violations of anti-Covid rules in Downing Street has prompted new calls for the resignation. Boris Johnson, himself subject to a fine (unheard of for a Prime Minister in office), then said that he assumed "full responsibility for everything that happened" but felt he had to "continue" his work.

The scandal, along with soaring prices that are causing a historic drop in household purchasing power, has already caused its popularity to plummet, leading to heavy setbacks for the Conservatives in local elections in early May. He was maintained by highlighting in particular the context of the war in Ukraine, but also for lack of an obvious successor in the ranks of the Conservatives, in power for 12 years in the United Kingdom.

If the Prime Minister is defeated by a motion of no confidence, an internal election will be held within the party to appoint a new leader. If he survives there, he cannot be dislodged for a year.

Two partial legislative elections are scheduled for June 23, the next date likely to relaunch the revolt against the head of government.

HOSPITAL CRISIS NEW GENERAL MOBILIZATION

In a leaflet distributed for a few days and entitled "there will be deaths", the inter-union denounces the immobility of the government despite regular alerts for three years.

“Access to first aid care is more and more complicated and the hospital no longer fulfills its public service role,” reads this leaflet. “Staff are angry and tired. (...) 

The Philippe and then Castex governments managed on a small scale, responding to emergencies with discriminatory measures such as hiring bonuses, without consideration for the staff already in office, despised ! »

The situation of emergency services in France is more than worrying. For lack of caregivers, at least 120 services have been forced to limit their activity or are preparing for it, according to a count at the end of May from the Samu-Urgences de France association.

The main demands

This Tuesday, the latter will therefore be in the street to make their five main demands heard, "the same for three years" remind the unions:

1 ° Immediate recruitment of additional caregivers

2° General increase in wages, taking into account time constraints and arduous work

3° Reinforcement of the financial means of establishments, recruitment of administrative staff to refocus caregivers on their tasks

4° Stopping of all closures of establishments and beds;

5° Implementation of measures to guarantee access to care for all French people, in all territories.

The salary increase for caregivers in the public and private non-profit sector to the tune of 183 euros, obtained at the end of the Ségur de la Santé, will therefore not have been enough to allay fears and anger..

THE ROLLING STONES GO ON EUROPEAN TOUR

At 78 for Mick Jagger and Keith Richards, 74 for Ronnie Wood, the grandfathers of rock still have the sacred fire in them, continuing decade after decade to roll their bumps on the roads. not joined with the musicians of Queen, Elton John and others who will perform in tribute to the sovereign.

It was in a football stadium, that of Atlético de Madrid, that they kicked off a European tour which will end on July 31. Sixty years just after the first official concert of the London blues formation, as part of the Marquee Club, on July 12, 1962.

Accompanied by Steve Jordan on drums, following the death of Charlie Watts on August 24, Mick Jagger, Keith Richards and Ronnie Wood will take the opportunity to return to their countless hits, like "Gimme Shelter", "Paint it Black », « Start Me Up » or even « (I Can't Get No) Satisfaction »...

The musical event also promises a beautiful visual spectacle with a huge stage, lights and video design at the cutting edge of creativity and technology!

A tour of fourteen dates in Europe, including two in France, at Groupama Stadium, in Lyon, on July 19, and at the Longchamp racecourse, in Paris, on July 23, 2022.

Certainly a farewell tour: The Stones will indeed perform in Hyde Park on the anniversary of the death of Brian Jones, July 3, the group's founder....

PLATINUM JUBILEE MAJESTIC APPEARANCE OF ELIZABETH II ON THE BALCONY

This question was on everyone's lips. Queen Elisabeth has been suffering from mobility problems for some time, but her people are eagerly awaiting this popular sovereign who has devoted her entire life to her country.

The answer falls at 12:20 p.m. London time. Leaning on a cane but without help, Elizabeth II appears majestic on the balcony of Buckingham this Thursday, June 2, 2022, which marks the first day of the festivities of her platinum jubilee.

The 96-year-old sovereign, dressed in a “flashy” sky blue outfit, was accompanied by the Duke of Kent, Colonel of the Scots Guards, one of the elite regiments of the British Royal Guard, who greeted the participants of the annual military parade of the "Hail to the colors".

Then the sovereign returned to the balcony a little later, for an aerial flight over the Royal Air Force, this time accompanied by the members of only certain members of the royal family: those "working" for the monarchy could come and salute there with their children, i.e. 18 people. So decided Elizabeth II.

Around her were crowded Prince Charles, heir to the Crown and his wife Camilla, Prince William, second in line of succession and his wife Kate, Princess Anne, daughter of the Queen, and her husband, as well as the youngest son of Elizabeth II, Edward, and his wife, as well as three cousins ​​of the sovereign. William and Edward's children were also present.

Exit, however, Prince Harry and his wife Meghan, settled in California and Prince Andrew, younger son of the sovereign, deprived of any official function since accusations of sexual assault in the Weinstein affair.

Never has a British monarch reigned so long, hence the importance for the country of celebrating this Platinum Jubilee of a queen who is still extremely popular. For many Britons who have always known her, Elizabeth II has been a symbol of stability and unity for 70 years.

WILL THE RUSSIAN APPETITE GO TO TRANSNITRIA ?

The situation of this former Soviet republic, independent since 1991 and neutral since 1994, wedged between a Romania that is a member of NATO and a Ukraine at war, is all the more precarious in that it has had to deal almost, since its independence, with a pro-Russian separatist territory located in its eastern part, Transnistria.

This last entity, where some 470,000 people reside, hosts around 1,500 Russian soldiers, present as part of a peacekeeping mission, as well as large stocks of armaments inherited from the USSR.

If the clashes between Transnistrians and Moldavians have not resumed since July 1992, and if the two parties coexist in a relatively serene way, maintaining in particular quite extensive commercial exchanges, the situation in Ukraine, and possible Russian appetites for Transnistria could in the short term weaken this balance.

From the conflict of 1992 to today

Without going into too detailed a chronology, let us briefly recall that, after the First World War, Bessarabia, whose territory more or less corresponds to present-day Moldova (minus Transnistria), and which had belonged for a century to the empire of the tsars, is integrated into Romania. The territory of present-day Transnistria remains in the hands of the USSR. In 1924, the latter established an administrative entity there called Autonomous Soviet Socialist Moldavian Republic (RASSM), which was incorporated into the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic.

In 1940, the USSR occupied and annexed Bessarabia, which it hastened to merge with the RASSM to create a “Soviet Socialist Republic of Moldavia”.

The Moldavian SSR will remain for fifty years within the USSR, as an equal of the fourteen other Republics (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, the three Baltic republics, the three Caucasian republics and the five Central Asian republics) and will therefore become independent in 1991, when the USSR collapses.

At that time, the union of Transnistria and Bessarabia was already cracked. For some years now, feeling the USSR wavering, Bessarabia has seriously considered joining Romania. Transnistria, with close ties to Moscow, decided to secede in 1990, but the Soviet center rejected this option. It is therefore together, as the State of Moldova, that Bessarabia and Transnistria gained independence in 1991. Transnistria immediately proclaimed its independence from Moldova, which led to a violent conflict soon after. From March 1992 until the ceasefire of July 21, 1992, the 14th Russian Army, which had come to support the Transistrian separatists, and the Moldovan forces engaged in violent clashes, which killed more than 2,000 people.

A frozen conflict

Since then, the conflict has not known any new episodes and is said to be "frozen", an expression which can moreover be advantageously replaced by the epithet "unresolved", Transnistria being de facto independent, but recognized by no State, not even Russia, which nevertheless largely supports it. It was to find a diplomatic and political solution to this status quo that Moldova adopted the status of a neutral country when it adopted its Constitution in 1994.

Over the past 28 years, the country's various political tendencies that have succeeded each other in power, whether they have been classified as pro-Russian (like Igor Dodon, president from 2016 to 2020) or pro-European, like the current president Maïa Sandu, all wanted to keep this status. It implies Moldova's non-adherence to a military alliance such as NATO, but also demands the departure from Transnistria of Russian troops present since 1992. This departure is regularly demanded by the Moldovan authorities in international forums. Again recently, Maïa Sandu reiterated this requirement, receiving a dismissal from the spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova.

Since the end of hostilities in 1992, a negotiation format has taken place, including Russia, Ukraine, the OSCE, as well as Moldova and Transnistria, in order to find the way to a political settlement through some form autonomy of Transnistria within a reintegrated Moldova.

Alas, Russia, if it never recognized the independence of Transnistria, did not help in a decisive way to settle the conflict either. It had proposed its own solution in 2003 through the Kozak memorandum (named after the Russian negotiator Dmitry Kozak, born in Ukraine and now deputy head of the Russian presidential administration in charge of relations with Ukraine), but this attempt was not successful. While discussions have continued since then, there has not been a high-level meeting since the fall of 2019.

The fact remains that – at least until Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24 – this conflict probably appeared to be the one with the best chance of being resolved of all conflicts. post-soviet frosts. After three decades without confrontation, a modus vivendi has emerged between the two parties, with tensions limited and expressed in interpersonal terms, while economic pragmatism has pushed for relatively close relations. Thus, the Sheriff Tiraspol football club (Tiraspol is the “capital” of Transnistria), which distinguished itself during its participation in the Champions League this year, plays in the Moldavian championship. Proof that a space of coexistence between Moldovans and Transnistrians is possible, at least on sports grounds!

First, is Moldova moving closer to open conflict with Russia? For the time being, the authorities in Chisinau are mainly focused on welcoming Ukrainian refugees and on the energy issue, considering that the extension of the war to their territory is unlikely. Several observers, such as the Romanian Mircea Geoana, deputy secretary general of NATO, or the American ambassador to Moldova, Kent Logsdon, share this opinion. It is true that Moldova is less important for Moscow than Ukraine.

On a military level, the development of the region depends directly on the fate reserved for the port of Odessa, a city in southern Ukraine located some 60 kilometers only from Moldova. Indeed, if Mariupol makes it possible to close off the Sea of ​​Azov, the port of Odessa allows Russia to control the whole of the Ukrainian coastline, cutting Ukrainian territory off from access to the sea. In this case, one can estimate that the number of refugees would still grow in Moldova, when it has already seen 360,000 people pass through since the start of the war.

This objective of controlling the coastline certainly explains the extent of the attacks against Mykolaev, a town bitterly disputed between Russians and Ukrainians. It is only after the eventual fall of Mykolaev and Odessa that Russia can afford a corridor towards Transnistria; it is not certain, at the same time, that Transnistria can play a decisive role in the Russian offensive in the region, given the low number of men available.

The war in Ukraine has also prompted several countries to move towards the European Union. Thus, like Ukraine before it, and at the same time as Georgia, Moldova applied for membership of the European Union. If the "fast track" demanded by these three countries does not exist in practice, these requests have at least had the merit of drawing the attention of European capitals to the fate of these countries, as well as to their request for membership.

Although Georgia and Moldova have taken a stand in favor of respect for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, these two countries have not, on the other hand, endorsed the policy of sanctions adopted by the EU. The Moldovan Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nicu Popescu, indeed conceded that it would be difficult to adopt the sanctions without suffering insurmountable reprisals. It should be noted that in 2014, Moldova did not support the sanctions imposed on Russia after the annexation of Crimea.

Tensions further rekindled by a Council of Europe resolution

Finally, on the diplomatic level, Russia's departure from the Council of Europe had a direct impact on Moldova. Indeed, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) passed a resolution in which Transnistria was described as a Russian occupation zone.

This interpretation naturally aroused disputes in Tiraspol. Authorities in Transdniestria called the document "detached from reality" and "extremely dangerous", as well as in Moscow where the resolution is considered to ignore the realities on the ground. Moldovan Foreign Minister Nicu Popescu contented himself with recalling that this resolution reflected “the political opinion of parliamentarians from member countries of the Council of Europe”. At the same time, Popescu stressed that Chisinau will continue to seek solutions for the reintegration of the country and insist on the withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Moldova.

In conclusion, while concerns about a resumption of conflict are at their highest for three decades, Moldova is currently relying on its status as a neutral state to avoid being drawn into the war in turn.

But the caution of the Chisinau authorities will probably not weigh heavily if Vladimir Putin manages to seize Odessa and decide that Transnistria will be the next stage of his war...

Florent Parmentier

Secretary General of CEVIPOF. Teacher at Sciences Po. Research associate at the HEC Paris Center for Geopolitics, Sciences Po. Article published in TheConversation..

SERIOUS MALFUNCTIONS AT THE STADE DE FRANCE OR THE DENIAL OF THE MACRON GOVERNMENT

The fault of the British supporters and the counterfeit banknotes maintained the Minister of the Interior Gérard Darmanin, before the Senate hearing committee. In a report to the Minister of the Interior, Didier Lallement barks in the same direction as his master announcing to seize the public prosecutor for "massive fraud with counterfeit notes".

According to him, between "30,000 and 40,000 people" showed up at the Stade de France without a ticket or with fake tickets, while the enclosure can only accommodate 80,000 people. The Paris police headquarters assures that the attempts of intrusion or use of counterfeit tickets were “generally” the act of “English supporters”.

There is outcry and indignation across the Channel. “Stade de Farce”, title in French the British newspaper The Sun, which does not take off. Police officers, present as British observers, were the first to be surprised by this communication from the French authorities. "The vast majority of England fans behaved in an exemplary manner, arriving at the turnstiles early and queuing." Liverpool club chairman Tom Werner wrote to the Sports Minister: “Your comments are irresponsible, unprofessional and totally disrespectful. […] These fans were treated like cattle […] and attacked by gangs. ".

The Liverpool club immediately called for the opening of an investigation "to determine the causes of these unacceptable problems". On Sunday, Britain's Secretary of State for Sport, Nadine Dorries, called on "UEFA to launch a formal investigation to find out what went wrong and why, in cooperation with stadium staff, the French police, the French Football Federation, the Merseyside Police [the Liverpool region] and Liverpool FC”. Apologies are requested. So what really happened ?

Counterfeit notes? “There were fake tickets and fake accreditations, we saw some, but in a very marginal way”, describes Pierre Barthélemy, lawyer for several groups of French supporters, present in Saint-Denis in Le Parisien. Ronan Evain, general manager of the Football Supporters Europe association, adds on France Inter that the fraudsters were "mostly young Parisians who came to try their luck around the Stade de France"

Contrary to what the Minister of the Interior has argued, the English supporters around the stadium were not Anglo-Saxon hooligans carrying counterfeit tickets. No desire to break or cause clashes among English fans who came to the Stade de France, unlike the usual actions of hooligans.

But it was a horde of young delinquents from the neighborhoods who were largely responsible for the mess that was created at the Stade de France. The number of 300 to 400 young people who looted personal effects and tickets for the match is mentioned. These young people also committed physical violence against the supporters present to enter the stadium. "We have undocumented thugs and city thugs who came opportunely to rob mainly Spanish and English spectators by stealing their personal effects, mobile phones and wallets and there were many thefts from vehicles parked around the Stade de France”, reported Matthieu Valet, spokesperson for the independent union of police commissioners to CNEWS.

In addition, Jérôme Jimenez, Ile-de-France UNSA Police spokesperson, indicated the majority presence of "people known to the police services" and many "minors". In total, 105 arrests and 48 police custody were made following the incidents. Only 2 Britons among them!! Reasons for their arrest: theft with a weapon, theft with violence, concealment, violence against persons holding public authority, violence in meetings, damage, attempted intrusion into the stadium, theft from the trailer.

The young rioters who came to provoke, to stir up trouble, to steal, thus confirm the “opportunity theory”. Aren't there frequent pickpockets and thefts near major sporting events ?

In addition, Seine-Saint-Denis, a department, many cities of which are part of the "republican reconquest district" system, has the highest crime rates in France, with nearly 145,000 crimes and offenses recorded in 2017 so how surprised by this delinquency?

A few days before the legislative elections, the minister's statement therefore seems above all very political. Not a single French authority proves capable of assuming the disastrous organization and not an official voice to blame the offenders that Seine-Saint-Denis for fear of displeasing some ... but at the cost of a shameless lie which only discredits political speech.

But would better organization have prevented this “ carnage ” ?

Yes without a doubt. The Stade de France is almost half the population of the city of Rennes or the 19th arrondissement of Paris. It is a city and its inhabitants who must settle in less than an hour in the stadium after having been partially searched, palpated, filtered, distributed.

The first mistake already lies in the fact of having accepted paper tickets, at least in part. It is already accepting that fraud can be organized as printers and software are today capable of reproducing and creating anything. This could only have delayed the entry and created grotesque situations in which jostling, impatience, vociferations and provocations took shape before being repressed.

Added to this, without a doubt, were the quite questionable choices of intervention, in the eyes of the public who crowded together and grew impatient. No hooligan, but supporters, certainly angry at not being able to enter the stadium, but also women, families, people of all ages. Added to these factors are transport strikes not anticipated by the organizers and the government, which could have provided alternative means.

These incidents, provided that everyone recognizes their responsibility for them, constitute a warning of what must be thought about, considered and implemented in a year (Rugby World Cup) or two years (Olympic Games 2024).

TRUTH OR DISINFORMATION

VLADIMIR PUTIN SICK ?

According to the weekly Newsweek, a report that was compiled by Washington in late May claims that the Russian president was treated for "advanced stage" cancer before reappearing in the media in April.

The American magazine quotes on condition of anonymity three senior American intelligence officials, "in three different agencies":

one working in the office of the Directorate of National Intelligence (DNI), one in the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and a former Air Force officer.

So far, the leaks have come mainly from British tabloids and not necessarily very reliable ex-spies.

But the latter, even if it emanated from American intelligence, would it not be part of American disinformation?

The quality of this information should therefore be taken with a grain of salt.

At the end of May, Sergei Lavrov, head of diplomacy in Moscow, assured that Vladimir Putin was doing well.

"I do not believe that anyone with all his senses can see in this person (Putin) signs of any illness or ailment", said the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs at the time, underlining the "daily appearances from its leader.

“Everyone feels that their end is near”, believes one of the officials, but another warns that we must not fall into “wishful thinking” (taking our dreams for reality), like the United States were able to do it with Saddam Hussein or Osama Bin Laden.

JUDICIARY VICTORY OF JOHNNY DEPP AGAINST AMBER HEARD GUILTY OF DEFAMATION

After six weeks of a trial during which no scabrous details about their toxic relationship were spared, neither the jurors nor the millions of spectators who followed the hearings, broadcast live every day, like episodes of a series , Johnny Depp's lawyers managed to convince the jury. The seven jurors – five men and two women – indeed answered in the affirmative to the question of whether the title and two passages of the tribune, published by the Washington Post in 2018 and signed by Amber Heard, contained remarks defamatory towards Johnny Depp, according to the reading of their decision.

A column published in 2018 in question

The star of the Pirates of the Caribbean saga sued his ex-wife for a forum in which she said she was "a public figure representing domestic violence". Although he is not named, Johnny Depp believed that this media outlet had destroyed his career and his reputation and claimed 50 million dollars.

And to award damages, they also ruled that the author of the declarations had acted out of "real malice". The actress was therefore ordered to pay 15 million dollars in damages to the actor of Pirates of the Caribbean.

However, the jury also awarded Amber Heard $2 million in damages in her own counterclaim, in which she claimed that statements by a controversial lawyer for Johnny Depp - who called the charges violence that she carried against her ex-husband of "hoax" - had harmed her.

"Inexpressible disappointment"

“Devastated”, the star of Aquaman confided his “inexpressible disappointment” just after the verdict. She said she was heartbroken, and it was a step back for women. “The disappointment I feel today is beyond words. I am heartbroken that the mountain of evidence is still not enough to stand up to the disproportionate power, influence and sway of my ex-husband, Amber Heard said. I am even more disappointed with what this verdict means for other women. It's a setback. It harkens back to a time when a woman who spoke up and spoke out could be publicly shamed and humiliated. It pushes back the idea that violence against women should be taken seriously,” she said.

Willingness to appeal

Amber Head wants to appeal the verdict pronounced this Wednesday, May 31, 2022. However, the courts of appeal can only interfere in a verdict if the judge's decisions have seriously undermined the verdict, but it will be difficult to find a fault on this side- there, say specialists relayed by the American press. The other problem is that it is not possible to appeal a finding of fact, such as the finding of the jurors who found that Amber Heard had acted maliciously, that she had lied, that she had defamed.

To be granted an appeal, Heard will therefore have to demonstrate that there were errors in the trial or in the judge's reading of the law.

"Given back his life".

Johnny Depp was absent for the verdict "due to professional commitments made before the trial", according to the ABC television channel, citing sources close to the actor. In a statement to the press, Johnny Depp thanked the jurors for giving him "his life back".

“From the beginning, the goal of bringing this case was to reveal the truth, whatever the outcome. Telling the truth was something I owed to my children and to everyone who supported me unwaveringly. I feel at peace knowing that I have finally accomplished this”.

After all this sordid unpacking on their ex-couple Johnny Depp will he again be able to seduce the spectators and particularly the female public?

Some of his remarks contained in text messages quoted during the trial, in which Johnny Depp notably called his ex-wife a “rotting corpse” and had sworn that she would suffer “total humiliation”, undoubtedly shocked.

THE ELIZABETH II JUBILEE PROGRAM

The United Kingdom will celebrate its queen with great fanfare from this Thursday, June 2, 2022 for her 70 years of reign.

For the occasion, the whole country will dress in British colors. Many residents have decorated their homes.

The streets and shops are also ready to celebrate the Queen. Four days of festivities for this jubilee with a great parade, thousands of light signals lit in all the countries of the Commonwealth and dozens of festive meals.

For the occasion, Thursday June 2 and Friday June 3 have been declared public holidays throughout the kingdom. The queen's subjects will thus be able to attend all the celebrations on the program for these four days, which are akin to a marathon.

Thursday, June 2: anniversary and military parade

To kick off the festivities, more than 1,500 soldiers and musicians from the British army will parade in the streets for the "Salut aux couleurs" ceremony which will take place from noon, Paris time. This is to celebrate a second time the "official" birthday of the Queen, yet born on April 21. They will join Trafalgar Square at Buckingham Palace. The Royal Air Force will engage in an aerial ballet.

This military parade is a tradition that goes back more than two centuries. June 2 also marks the coronation of Elizabeth II, on June 2, 1953. Like all her predecessors since Edward VII, Queen Elizabeth II, who was born on April 26, 1926, is entitled to a second birthday celebrated in June.

It's an opportunity for the Queen and the entire working royal family, which excludes Harry, Meghan and Prince Andrew, who signed a financial deal to end sexual assault charges, to attend a parade military: the “Trooping colors”. An event that the queen can not miss.

In the evening, more than 2,800 beacons in honor of the Queen will be lit at the Palace and across the UK. This tradition is called the “Platinum Jubilee Beacons”.

Nine bridges spanning the Thames in London will also be illuminated, as will the iconic BT Tower (eleventh tallest skyscraper in London) in the capital, and several English cathedrals. Signals also lit in the Channel Islands, Isle of Man and British Overseas Territories.

The same is true in the 54 Commonwealth capitals on five continents, from the Kingdom of Tonga in the South Pacific to Belize in the Caribbean.

Friday, June 3: high mass

A religious service, to give thanks to Queen Elizabeth II, will be held at Saint Paul's Cathedral this Friday morning. It will be an opportunity to hear the biggest bell in the country ring, for only the ninth time since 1970, its broken mechanism having been repaired in 2021.

Saturday June 4: horse racing and concert

Saturday will be one of the busiest days of the week across the Channel. The Queen is a keen horse racer and she is expected to attend the prestigious Epsom Derby race. The Royal Family are expected at Epsom Racecourse in Surrey from 5.30pm.

In the evening, a big concert will animate Buckingham Palace. 22,000 spectators – including 5,000 key workers during the Covid-19 pandemic – are expected in the courtyard of the Palace to attend the BBC Platinum Party show, broadcast live on the BBC.

On the menu, a 2.5-hour concert with prestigious headliners including Elton John, Diana Ross, Alicia Keys, Nile Rodgers, Craig David and Italian tenor Andrea Bocelli. The British representative at Eurovision, Sam Ryder, will also be there.

Sunday June 5: outdoor dining and parade in London

This Sunday will be marked initially by the party in the street. This will begin with a giant “jubilee lunch” in the streets of London. Alfresco dining will be held across the kingdom and millions of Britons are expected.

More than 600 lunches are also planned in Commonwealth countries and the rest of the world, from Canada to Brazil, from New Zealand to Japan and from South Africa to Switzerland.

This platinum jubilee will end with a great festive parade through the streets of London to Buckingham Palace. About 10,000 dancers, actors and musicians will take part in this show, which is supposed to represent the longevity of the reign of Elizabeth II through the upheavals that the country has gone through over the past 70 years.

AFTER CANNES IN CANNES

Cannes begins with the arrival of our team with our "CEO" who takes us to the command of his jet (and yes he loves to pilot) in Cannes-Mandelieu. 

Then after an interminable wait, the cars arrive for Cannes.

Once installed, it's madness !

More work than you can even imagine!! After all this, here is the results of this Cannes 2022 !!!

The 75th Cannes Film Festival has given back its panache to an event that had suffered a lot in recent years  !

But after the sequins, the strasses, a more discreet, even more confidential “Cannes” continues, where the companies, the agents, and a whole small world have finished organizing themselves for business.

Do not forget the objective of Cannes, it is to present films but it is necessary well before that to finance them, the turns…. !

Some even say that Cannes 2023 is in the process of being built at the moment, here in discreet alcoves without bling-bling or projectors.

Too bad no more sexy dresses, handsome kids who make you fall in love ( Hey! Tom, I already miss you ), but a ballet of sober and austere suits of ties, well I'm here with the team and as the "work it" said is work”.

Files, documents, reports, interviews, nothing very glamorous but....!!

I'm dying to tell you some secrets about what's going to happen in the coming months but I'm not sure I'm allowed to by......!

To make you wait, I illustrate all this with some beautiful photos to make you wait before telling you more. 

LIFTING OF THE STRICT CONTAINMENT OF SHANGAI

Wednesday morning, therefore, Shanghainese returned to work, while some stores reopened. The metro and public transport were working again. “This is the moment we have been waiting for for a long time”, welcomed the mayor of Shanghai on social networks.

Authorities have warned, however, that the return to normal is not for now.

Restrictions still in place

Shopping centers, convenience stores, pharmacies and beauty salons can only operate at 75% of their capacity. Sports halls and cinemas will remain closed and the reopening of schools will be done on a case-by-case basis.

The shutdown of China's largest city was a crushing blow for Shanghainese.

Despite a dizzying increase in positive cases in March, the municipality initially dismissed the idea of ​​confinement, citing the importance of Shanghai for the economy.

But the authorities reversed their decision in early April to hastily confine the entire metropolis. Some residents were already there long before this date. Many have been exasperated by the problems with the supply of fresh produce and access to non-Covid medical care.

A confinement that has weakened the economy, penalized production, limited consumption and seriously disrupted supply chains.

A PACK OF NEW EU SANCTIONS

AGAINST RUSSIA

1° Reduce EU imports of Russian oil by 90% by the end of the year. The agreement provides for a temporary exemption to transport Russian oil by pipeline in order to lift Hungary's veto.

2° Extend the blacklist to eighty Russian oligarchs.

3° Prohibit three television channels.

4° Exclude Russian banks from the Swift international system, including Sberbank

For the Head of State, “this sixth package [of sanctions against Russia] is historic. Exemption measures have been decided for very dependent States (…) and which do not have access to the sea, in a very specific framework with a time limit of eighteen to twenty-four months”. “We are sanctioning Russia and we are helping Ukraine because there is a war on our continent decided by Russia against a people, against democracy. Our objective is always the same: to stop the war without participating. »

Emmanuel Macron also announced that he had proposed to Vladimir Putin the vote of a resolution at the UN to lift the Russian blockade of the port of Odessa in order to allow the export of Ukrainian cereals which are blocked there. "I proposed, in the discussion we had with Olaf Scholz [the German Chancellor] last Saturday, to President Putin that we take the initiative of a resolution at the United Nations to give a very clear framework to this operation" , he declared after a European summit in Brussels.

Emmanuel Macron also reacted to the death of Frédéric Leclerc-Imhoff, a French journalist killed by shrapnel in the Donbass, while he was in a humanitarian convoy.

He “condemned in the strongest terms” the “unacceptable” remarks by Russian officials questioning the young man's status as a journalist.

WHY ARE ELECTRICITY PRICES SOAR ?

Taxes and transport costs, as well as the financing of the energy transition, explain in particular why liberalization has not, as expected, led to a drop in prices.

Between 2007, a symbolic date in France since it marks the eligibility of all consumers for market tariffs, and 2020, the average price per megawatt-hour (MWh) of electricity for households rose from 124 euros at 181 euros, or 57 euros per MWh of increase. At first glance, the finding is therefore clear: with nearly a 50% increase since 2007, the opening up to competition does not seem to have fulfilled its objective of lowering prices for consumers.

The two finalists of the last presidential election, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, moreover openly debated it during the intervening rounds and, if the proposed remedies differed, both agreed on the fact that the market energy system was inefficient and would, in its current form, contribute to price increases. This is also the conclusion of the central social and economic committee of Electricité de France (EDF), which has just launched a petition for the exit from the European electricity market and the return to a public energy service. For his part, the leader of the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who aims to become Prime Minister after the legislative elections, calls for a return to a national energy market.

But is this surge in prices really linked to the liberalization of the sector, which was precisely supposed to stimulate competition and therefore innovation, particularly in the deployment of renewable energies (EnR), and lower prices? In reality, the observation appears more nuanced.

First of all, part of this increase is explained by taxes (particularly the CSPE) which weighed 25% on the consumer's bill in 2007 (i.e. 31 euros/MWh), and 34% in 2020 (i.e. 61 .5 euros/MWh). In other words, the increase in taxes alone explains 31.5 euros/MWh out of the 57 euros/MWh increase in average prices observed (ie 55.3% of the total).

Prices would soar if France isolated itself

Another part of the increase is based on the costs inherent in the transport networks, which had to be reassessed on several occasions to take into account the necessary investments in the maintenance, but also the modernization of these essential infrastructures. This modernization seems all the more necessary as electricity production becomes decentralized (particularly with the deployment of renewable energies), and as new uses develop. These electricity transmission tariffs (Turpe) thus rose from 41 euros/MWh in 2007 to 53.5 euros/MWh in 2020, or 21.9% of the total increase observed.

A quick calculation therefore allows us to deduce that supply costs, or in other words, market factors, explain on average only 22.8% (100%-55.3%-21.9%) of the price increase observed over the period, i.e. approximately 13 euros/MWh. For opponents of the European energy market, this residual 22.8% would therefore sound like an acknowledgment of failure and would justify a return to national markets.

However, according to projections by RTE (manager of the national high-voltage electricity transmission network), an isolated France by 2050-2060 would cost taxpayers several billion more per year. Indeed, to reduce our CO2 emissions and our dependence on fossil fuels, we have already closed and planned the closure of the equivalent of nearly 10 gigawatts (GW) of thermal power plants. In addition, our aging nuclear power plants are experiencing prolonged shutdown and monitoring periods that prevent their full operation.

All this makes France an importer of electricity, in particular to cover its consumption peaks. In 2021, RTE reminds us that France will have imported 44 terawatt-hours (TWH, one million MWh) of electricity (including 22.2 TWh from Germany and Benelux). This figure was “only” 27.5 TWh in 2007!

This can only mean two things: France is finding it increasingly difficult to cover its domestic energy needs and/or it is sometimes profitable for it to import energy, especially when market prices are low.

The EDF paradox

In the midst of this market dynamic, EDF is the object of a curious paradox. It should be understood that the main player in the electricity production market in France remains bound to cede to its competitors a ceiling of 100 TWh/year of nuclear energy at an "Arenh" tariff (regulated access to historical nuclear energy ) fixed since 2012 at 42 euros/MWh.

This provision, which commits about a quarter of EDF's nuclear production capacity, has enabled the establishment of competition on the supply market, electricity of nuclear origin being highly competitive, in particular to cover “basic” needs. It is also very much in demand at present due to soaring market prices.

The Arenh, which has not been revised since 2012, is supposed to cover EDF's nuclear electricity production costs.

However, this is no longer the case if we are to believe the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) and the incumbent operator, who respectively estimate these production costs at 48.36 euros/MWh and 53 euros/ MWh.

In other words, EDF sells part of its nuclear production at a loss... which, from the point of view of the French taxpayer who participated in the constitution of the EDF fleet and is one of its shareholders, is akin to a double penalty since, at the same time, it is also being hit by rising prices.

However, it should not be overlooked that EDF is both a leader in the supply of electricity, but also a very important exporter. And if it loses money on the 100 TWh conceded at the Arenh tariff, it gains some on the rest of its production, all the more so when market prices soar! Moreover, its cost price remains very competitive, due in particular to its nuclear and hydropower revenues.

On the balance sheet, despite the paradox of the Arenh, this situation allows it to generate significant gains that benefit the state shareholder… and, in one way or another, the taxpayer. Are measures of the “energy shield” type, for example, not indirectly deducted from EDF's profits?

The heavy financing of renewables

Finally, it should be borne in mind that the opening up to competition met other objectives than simply lowering prices. It was also a question of reacting to a series of problems identified in the mid-1990s. At that time, the European Union had already anticipated a sharp increase in global demand for energy, and the subsequent tensions over access to fossil resources on which Europe remains highly dependent. European energy sovereignty cannot, in this context, do without a real unified energy policy that allows both to influence the markets, but also to plan the gradual exit from fossil fuels. The method of financing renewable energies (EnR) and their costs associated with their integration into the network thus partly explains the price increases.

Indeed, private financing is carried out at a market rate generally between 4% and 7% when the State could benefit from much more advantageous financing conditions. In other words, the energy transition is more expensive – all other things being equal – when it involves private rather than public investment. Certainly, but that would be to forget a little too quickly that the European States, already burdened with very significant sovereign debt for some, have multiple budgetary arbitrations to carry out (subject to the constraints of complying, in normal times, with the Stability and Growth Pact) . However, they already directly and indirectly subsidize renewables a lot, through purchase obligations at a regulated price or additional remuneration for the exclusive benefit of renewables producers.

Renewables also have the disadvantage of being intermittent, but above all decentralized and generated by multiple heterogeneous producers. This dispersion makes the network more difficult to control and balance and requires massive investments to adapt the lines to this new situation. For example, the Electricity Transmission Network (RTE), which transports electricity in France, plans some 33 billion euros in investments by 2035 (including 13 billion for the absorption of renewable energies alone), and an exponential increase beyond that depending on the share of renewables in the French energy mix.

In return, these investments pave the way for more intelligent management of energy, and the development of the uses that go hand in hand, whether it is the massive electrification of vehicle fleets, "smart" electrical networks (smart grids) allowing production/injection of energy that can be adjusted in real time, remote control of demand… In short, an optimization that will ultimately lead to better energy efficiency. And to continue to reduce, by increasing the density of our renewable energy park, our CO2 emissions. The evolution of tariffs in the future will therefore partly reflect our political choices concerning the environment.

We understand from reading this brief overview that, of course, we remain far from the promises of moderating price competition, but that all the price increases do not result from the imperfections of the liberalized market, and that the many benefits linked to the construction of the European energy market cannot be totally overlooked .

However, the leeway to protect consumers' wallets and ensure the energy transition remains limited.

Unless we bet on energy sobriety, see the emergence of radical innovations in energy generation, or hope for more favorable macro conditions, the rise in prices does not seem to be able to be stemmed in the short term. And this, even if it was decided to cap the marketing expenditure of suppliers, EDF and its rivals that have appeared since 2007...

Julien Pillot , Teacher-Researcher in Economics (Inseec) / Associate Professor (U. Paris Saclay) / Associate Researcher (CNRS), INSEEC Grande École

PRESIDENTIAL IN COLOMBIA

SOON A LEFT PRESIDENT ?

Gustavo Petro came out on top on Sunday, May 29, in the first round of the presidential election in Colombia. He will face, in the second round, an independent candidate, Rodolfo Hernandez, according to the provisional official results published in the evening. Mr. Petro has 40.32% of the vote, ahead of Mr. Hernandez (28.20%). Conservative candidate Federico Gutierrez is in third place with 23.87%, a surprise result that marks an unprecedented defeat for Colombia's traditional right. For the first time in its history, Colombia could elect a leftist president in the election presidential election, the second round of which will take place on June 19.

In the opinion of all observers, Senator Petro, a former guerrilla convert to social democracy, an economist and former mayor of Bogotá, was able to exploit the thirst for change shown by Colombians in the face of inequalities and corruption, a need which he made his emblem with his slogan "For life".

The four years in office of outgoing Conservative President Ivan Duque, who could not stand for re-election, saw no substantive reform. They have been marked by the pandemic, a deep recession, massive anti-government protests in cities and worsening violence by armed groups in the countryside. The "paro" (strike) of spring 2021, severely repressed by the police, revealed the extent of frustration, especially among young people, in the face of poverty, inequality and corruption, an evil endemic to the country. rural areas, guerrillas and armed groups linked to drug trafficking have increased their violence and their influence within communities, undermining the few achievements of the peace agreement signed in 2016 with the Marxist Farc.

“There are only two options: leave things as they are (…), which means more corruption, violence, hunger. Or change Colombia and lead it towards peace, prosperity and democracy,” Petro said on Sunday after voting in Bogota.

This is the third time that Mr. Petro has participated in the presidential election. This time, he has as a running mate for the vice-presidency an Afro-Colombian, Francia Marquez. The rise to the top of the state of this charismatic activist with a feminist and anti-racist discourse would also mark a turning point in Colombian politics, traditionally dominated by the same elites.

Facing the “Colombian Trump”

As some polls at the end of the campaign suggested, millionaire Rodolfo Hernandez, 77, came in second. The former mayor of the city of Bucaramanga (north), a businessman with often outrageous or eccentric statements, is nicknamed by the local press the "Colombian Trump".

While Mr. Gutierrez was seen throughout the campaign as Petro's challenger, these surprise results mark the historic rout of Colombia's old right, like his mentor, ex-president Alvaro Uribe, today. mired in legal disputes.

After Chile, Colombia is in the process of electing a left-wing president. The country could turn the page on half a century of right-wing government and see a black woman and environmental activist take up her vice presidency.

AWARDS OF THE 75TH CANNES FILM FESTIVAL

Palme d'or - Without filter

The most prestigious prize of the event, the Palme d'Or of the 75th edition of the Cannes Film Festival was awarded to Without Filter (Triangle of Sadness, in its original version), the sixth feature film by 48-year-old Swedish director Ruben Östlund . The film is an enjoyable satire that shatters the codes of modern society by following a couple of influencers and models on a luxury cruise where nothing goes as planned. This is for this filmmaker his second Palme d'or, the first having been awarded to him in 2017 for The Square.

Iranian actress Zar Amir Ebrahimi won the Best Actress award for her role in Ali Abbasi's thriller Holy Spider (The Nights of Mashhad).

The love of the Cannes Film Festival for South Korean cinema is confirmed once again with the distinction of actor Song Kang Ho (already headlining Parasite, palme d'or 2019). The actor was rewarded for his role in Les Bonnes Étoiles (Broker), the feature film by Japanese director Kore-Eda Hirokazu. The festival jury also rewarded South Korean director Park Chan-Wook (Mademoiselle, Thirst, Old Boy) for Decision to Leave.

Directors Charlotte Vandermeersch and Felix Van Groeningen (for Les Huit Montagnes) and Jerzy Skolimowski (for EO) share a jury prize ex aequo. While a special 75th anniversary prize was awarded to brothers Jean-Pierre and Luc Dardenne for Tori and Lokita.

The full list

Palme d'or: Without filter by Ruben Östlund

Joint Grand Prize: Close by Lukas Dhont and Des étoiles à midi by Claire Denis

Best Actress Award: Zar Amir Ebrahimi in Holy Spider

Best Actor Award: Song Kang-ho in Les Bonnes étoiles

Joint Jury Prize: Les Huit Montagnes by Charlotte Vandermeersch and Felix Van Groeningen and EO by Jerzy Skolimowski

Best Director Award: Decision to leave by Park Chan-wook

Screenplay Prize: Boy from Heaven by Tarik Saleh

75th anniversary prize: Tori and Lokita by Jean-Pierre and Luc Dardenne for

Golden Camera: War Pony by Gina Gammell and Riley Keough

Special Mention of the Camera d'or: Plan 75 by Hayakawa Chie

Palme d'or for short film: The Water Murmurs by Jianying Chen

Special mention for the short film: Lori by Abinash Bikram Shah

Grand Prize - Close and Stars at Noon

A good vintage for the 75th Cannes Film Festival !

EMILY RATAJKOWSKI DRAWS THE MARKETS OF THE CANNES FILM FESTIVAL 2022

Fortunately, the red carpet is fireproof otherwise it would have caught fire under his feet.

With class and beauty, she delights all her fans as she does at each of her appearances.

Her perfect and so light makeup gives the impression that we are facing a fairy tale princess, chic, glamorous and sensual with her long transparent slit dress, adorned with black lace without forgetting to mention her new cut of awesome hair, with bangs that fit her like a glove and that will definitely inspire many of her fans.

Even though Emily was alone on the steps. Bad luck for gentlemen because our Emily is married (Hey Yes!), so her fans can only dream!.

Sure that in the weeks to come Emily will tell us more about her Cannes Film Festival 2022 which is regaining its splendor (end of the Covid-19 pandemic).

We bet that Emily Ratajkowski will not leave the Croisette immediately, and will still gratify us with her most beautiful assets in the days to come. Remember that the 75th Cannes Film Festival 2022 runs until Saturday May 28, without counting on the after Cannes or numerous negotiations, dialogues, meetings (artists, agents, producers, TV channels, and Major Networks, Vod,... ) take place to establish the projects (battle plan) to come concerning the 7th art.

With its beautiful images we can say to ourselves as in the song:

Summer will be hot, summer will be hot…!!

Emily continues for our greatest pleasure, very affectionately full of kisses!!!

Postscript (I have in my hood in preparation a new muse of which you will go crazy and who will set the fire Yes!: Light the fire, light the fire.... hi hi!! ) 

SAFE FIASCO AT STADE DE FRANCE

The Champions League final was postponed for a long time on Saturday May 28, 2022, due to incidents near the Stade de France (Seine-Saint-Denis). The gala match hasindeedtransferred to the debacle around 7:30 p.m. A kick-off postponed for more than thirty-five minutes. Images of congested supporters then sprayed with tear gas around the Stade de France. Intruders stepping over the gates of the enclosure. Stripped supporters. 27OO ticketed British supporters were unable to enter. The fiasco is resounding for the organization, and invites itself in the political field while the first round of the legislative elections is held in ten days. Between scenes of violence and overwhelmed security, the organization of the event was a serious failure.

An influx of Liverpool supporters with counterfeit tickets

This is the official version on which the Ministries of the Interior, Sports and UEFA agree. According to them, "thousands" of British supporters resorted to counterfeit tickets in an attempt to attend the Mersey club final. For the time being, it is difficult to know the extent of the phenomenon, even if a source within the organization assures us that a large number of these tickets have been identified. The FSE association evokes a “marginal” subject. One point may have favored the multiplication of these counterfeits. The Liverpool club, of which 20,000 supporters had valid tickets, asked to have paper tickets for the event. A support easier to divert than its electronic equivalent. Between 25,000 and 30,000 counterfeit banknotes were identified on Saturday evening. The prefect of police of Paris,

300 to 400 offenders

But a horde of young delinquents from the neighborhoods were also largely responsible for the mess that was created at the Stade de France. The number of 300 to 400 young people who looted personal effects and tickets for the match is mentioned. These young people also committed physical violence against the supporters present to enter the stadium. "We have undocumented thugs and city thugs who came opportunely to rob mainly Spanish and English spectators by stealing their personal effects, mobile phones and wallets and there were many thefts from vehicles parked around the Stade de France”, reported Matthieu Valet, spokesperson for the independent union of police commissioners to CNEWS. In addition, Jérôme Jimenez, Ile-de-France UNSA Police spokesperson,

Liverpool supporters and British officials were furious on Sunday. The Liverpool club immediately called for the opening of an investigation "to determine the causes of these unacceptable problems". On Sunday, Britain's Secretary of State for Sport, Nadine Dorries, called on "UEFA to launch a formal investigation to find out what went wrong and why, in cooperation with stadium staff, the French police, the French Football Federation, the Merseyside Police [the Liverpool region] and Liverpool FC”.

THIS TRADITION THAT IS MOTHER'S DAY

From the sixteenth century, in England, large families celebrated "Mothering Sunday", to which they invited their servants.

Across the Atlantic, Anna Jarvis, an American activist, decided in 1907 to launch a campaign to dedicate a day to those raising children. Her idea was born out of a desire to celebrate her own mother, whom she had lost three years earlier. In 1914, the text was finally approved by the government. Since then, the United States has celebrated "Mother's Day" every second Sunday in May.

It was only in the 19th century in France that Napoleon gave birth to the idea of ​​a party that would celebrate all mothers in the spring. Originally, this day was intended to demonstrate the importance of family values ​​and therefore to stimulate the birth rate. In 1906, the Fraternal Union of Deserving Fathers of Artas, in Isère, established a "Mother's Day" to reward the most deserving mothers. This will be democratized during the First World War with Colonel La Croix-Laval who created a "Mother's Day" in Lyon to pay tribute to all the women who lost their son or their husband during the war.

In 1920, a first nationwide "Mother's Day for large families" appeared. The government formalized "Mother's Day" in 1929 to support the pronatalist policy following the Great War. The first official ceremony in favor of women will not take place until April 20, 1926.

It was Marshal Pétain who definitively instituted "National Mother's Day" on May 25, 1941. But it was not until May 24, 1950 that the President of the Republic, Vincent Auriol signed a law that finally legitimized Mother's Day. mothers.

Mother's Day is now fixed for the last Sunday of May or the first weekend of June if it coincides with the date of Pentecost.

FANTASMES DES HOMMES

A VOUS MONSIEUR !

QU'EST-CE QU'ELLE A MA PETITE POITRINE ?

NABILLA CREE

L'EMEUTE AU SALON DU LIVRE !

Refoulés ou non vous en avez.Des jeux coquins que l'on adore. Après enquête auprès de vous et de la pratique perso.....

Tu affiches un plantureux 75A !

.Avoir une petite poitrine est-il complexant ? Non: fais-en une force et assume ! Les points positifs et négatifs :Pour les premiers, tu ne souffres pas de .......

Un rendez-vous incontournable de la littérature que le Salon du livre de Paris :

Trois mille auteurs pendant quatre jours avec d'immenses auteurs, de grands poètes ........

VICTORIA'S SECRET OU LE DEFILE LE PLUS HOT DE LA

LE CALENDRIER PIRELLI OU L'HOMMAGE AUX FEMMES

PARADIS  FISCAUX contre

ÉTATS GLOUTONS

C'est Lady Gaga qui animera avec Bruno Mars et The Weeknd le grand show de Victoria's Secret et ses anges dans la Ville lumière.

L'événement se tient demain, au Grand Palais, pour être retransmis à la télévision américaine ..........

Jamais les paradis fiscaux ne se sont aussi bien portés malgré la croisade lancée en 2009 par les dirigeants des pays développés.

Si l'on regarde l'origine géographique des investissements directs .....

AN ORCA IN DANGER IN THE SEINE WILL BE GUIDED TO THE CHANNEL

“She is very weak and thin. His body is covered with fungus. But for the past few days, his condition has remained stable, "says Sophie Poncet, marine mammal specialist for the French Office for Biodiversity (OFB). This "male orca, a protected and wild species", is "very weakened", confirmed the prefecture of Seine-Maritime in a press release.

The orca, a young male of about four meters, would come from a population which is "on the side of Ireland", explained Sébastien Jacquot, project manager at the Cotentin Cetacean Study Group (GECC) . Usually, this species lives in groups, but several hypotheses have been put forward to explain this isolation. She would have escaped from the group “out of curiosity”, or to “hunt, seals probably”, assures Sébastien Jacquot. Delphine Eloi, of the GECC explains that an illness could have been the cause of this distance.

“It would thus have come to calmer waters to feed more easily. “Her state of health makes it more comfortable for her to be in a river because it's less rough. She spends less energy, but it's more complicated to feed herself: there is less prey than at sea. And she's all alone whereas these are animals that hunt in packs. “, she continues. This animal “naturally has no vocation to evolve separated from its group, nor in fresh water courses. Deprived of the minerals provided by seawater, the orca's immune system weakens in fresh water.

According to several specialists, the competent authorities must intervene to save his life.

This Friday, May 27, 2022, the prefecture of Seine-Maritime announced that a device would be put in place to attract the killer whale to the sea. been taken to favor a gentle intervention method, aimed at ensuring remote monitoring of the animal by using a drone, coordinated with an intervention aimed at ensuring the dissemination of sound stimuli (sounds emitted by a population of killer whales ) to attract and guide the animal to the sea,” she wrote in a statement.

This first attempt less invasive than a drive with boat maneuvers increases its chances of survival, by reducing the stress induced. Endowed with a particular intelligence, the orca in difficulty could also understand the subterfuge and not be attracted towards sound signals.

The experiment is a first in France, but has already been successful with a group of killer whales in Norway.

3D PRINTABLE GUN

People who are banned from buying guns, and those who want to own a gun that is illegal in their state could have easily circumvented the law.

3D printable guns?

Why ?

The little story:

An American crypto-anarchist had obtained permission to distribute 3D firearms manufacturing plans.

After several years of legal adventures, the Defense Distributed site had been authorized to distribute - legally - the 3D printing files of several types of firearms.

Among them, AR-15 style rifles, used in several mass shootings such as the one in Las Vegas or Parkland.

And this Wednesday, each inhabitant had prepared to be able to make a "do it yourself" gun using a simple 3D printer, from home and without any restrictions. The plans were to be published on the web this Wednesday!!

These guns are all plastic, but have the capacity and power to fire live ammunition.

These functional weapons, nicknamed "phantom weapons", from a digitized plan are completely anonymous, and without it being possible to trace them, unlike those produced by an approved manufacturer.

The creation and publication of these weapons plans had been made possible following an agreement in June 2018 between the government and Cody Wilson.

On the homepage of its site is indicated: "August 1, 2018: the era of downloadable weapons officially begins".

But prosecutors in eight U.S. states have announced they will ask a federal judge to block the plastic weapons 3D printing program from going online.

The embarrassment of the White House was such that Donald Trump himself said on Tuesday, before the court decision was rendered, that the sale of plastic guns did not make "very much sense" to him.

"The dissemination of these files is now illegal," insisted Judge Lasnik. But Cody Wilson, the founder of the Texas organization Defense Distributed, at the initiative of the Liberator, anticipated the bans and posted the plans for seven models of pistols online as of Friday, July 27, 2018.

Judge Robert Lasnik ruled in his injunction that the online dissemination of these files undermines the security of Americans. "There are 3D printers in universities and public places and there is a risk of irreparable damage," said the magistrate at the end of the one-hour hearing.

"It's just insane to give criminals the tools to 3D print untraceable and undetectable weapons at the push of a button," said New York State Attorney Barbara Underwood. attached to the court proceedings.

The assessment in 2022, after its declarations of 2018 is without appeal! The number of weapon files has multiplied so much around the world that it seems illusory to stop this by law the distribution of 3d printing files of firearms.

POLLEN ALLERGY ALERT

Elsewhere, “the risk of allergy is high throughout the country and will remain so for several more weeks with very favorable weather conditions for the emission and dispersion of high concentrations of grass pollen in the air. »

This is why the RNSA recommends four applications to download to your smartphone: “Pollen alerts”, “My life as an allergik”, “Pollen” and “MASK-AIR” which can help people suffering from pollen.

TEXAS SCHOOL SHOOTING

CAUSED 21 DEAD

An 18-year-old American opened fire in an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas on Tuesday May 24, 2022, killing 21 people, including 19 children under the age of 10 and 2 teachers. The teenager, who had two assault rifles (it is not known if these are the weapons he used to perpetrate this massacre), was shot dead by the police after barricading himself in the establishment, reported several American media, including CNN and the New York Times.

The shooter was quickly identified as Salvador Ramos, an 18-year-old American boy who had recently shared photos of guns and ammunition on his social media.

A former classmate, with whom he still played video games online from time to time, also told CNN that he had exchanged messages with him four days before the shooting. “He sent me a picture of the weapon he was using…and a backpack full of ammunition,” he explained to the American channel.

“I asked him: Bro, why do you have that ?

And he answered me:

Do not worry.

Then: I am very different now. You wouldn't recognize me. "

Chronology of events

The first elements indicate that the assailant shot his grandmother before going to the primary school. The latter is still hospitalized in a state of emergency. During a speech, the governor of Texas explained that he did not know the link between the facts.

Equipped with a bulletproof vest and a rifle, he would then have taken his car and had a “spectacular accident”. Then, chased by the police, he entered the school where he opened fire.

Bullied when he was younger

According to several American sources, Salvador Ramos was the victim of harassment during his schooling. What his former classmate, who wished to remain anonymous, confirmed with CNN. He explained that the shooter's family had serious financial difficulties and that the other students made fun of him daily because of his clothes. Reason why he would have "slowly abandoned school", according to this witness.

The arms lobby

“When, for God's sake, are we going to face the gun lobby? “Reacted Joe Biden, while the United States is unfortunately regularly in this kind of school shooting. A few days ago, a man opened fire in a Buffalo convenience store with racist motives, killing a dozen people.

While Joe Biden and Barack Obama have called for “standing up against the gun lobby”, some Republican Party politicians believe that the solution, on the contrary, lies in massive arming in schools. Texas Senator Ted Cruz has proposed putting more armed police in schools, saying it would be more effective than restricting gun control laws. "We know from experience that the most effective tool to keep children safe is armed law enforcement on campus," he told reporters, as reported by Newsweek.

Arm the teachers

Texas State Attorney General Ken Paxton, meanwhile, suggested that giving the teachers guns could have prevented the tragedy. Paxton said one way to prevent mass shootings would be to make it "more difficult for people to even get to that entry point," by having "teachers and other administrators who have gone through training and who are armed," added, "First responders usually can't get there in time to prevent a shooting, it's just not possible unless they have a police officer on camera on every campus, which for many of these schools is almost impossible. I think you're going to have to do more in school, because that meansusually very short periods of time, and you need to have trained people on campus to respond. »

A way out

“If only 30% of Americans own guns, there is quite a lot of support for the Second Amendment,” according to Marie-Christine Bonzom, a journalist specializing in the United States. “But there is also a lot of support around the restriction of firearms,” she also notes.

“Fundamental reform in the United States, what would it be ?

It would be a reform that would be inspired by what has been done in Australia, that is to say the creation of a national firearms register, ”she says.

The Australians indeed tightened the legislation around the weapons in 1996.

CANNES 2022 IN PICTURES

LIFE PRISON SENTENCE OF RUSSIAN SOLDIER TRIED FOR WAR CRIME

The boyish-faced, shaven-headed soldier, dressed in a gray and blue sweater, listened to the verdict, alone in a glass box. "The murder was committed with direct intent," the judge said. “Chichimarine violated the laws and customs of war,” he continued.

During the trial last week, Vadim Chichimarine admitted to having shot the sexagenarian but said he was "sincerely sorry" and had "asked forgiveness" from the victim's widow, justifying his act by the "orders" received at that time. the.

Arguments swept away by the prosecution who had demanded life imprisonment. "He was carrying out a criminal order and was well aware of it," said one of the prosecutors.

The soldier will appeal his sentence, according to his lawyer.

According to the Ukrainian prosecutor's office, the country has opened more than 12,000 war crimes investigations since the start of the conflict.

CANNES FILM FESTIVAL

TOP GUN MAVERICK WITH TOM CRUISE

The 2022 version quite simply acts as a remake: the identical scenes follow one another, playing on the same codes and the same narrative axes, using the same little sentences that kill.

The Maverick that we left in 1986 after 1h50 of film seems forced to relive the same sequence identically, Age of Tomorrow style.

And yet, Top Gun and Top Gun: Maverick are fraternal twins.

A little hint of nostalgia is already missing from the Top Gun reunion promised by the second installment, which is released in France on May 25.

If Maverick and Iceman will be reunited, we will not see Charlie again. There was no question of re-casting Kelly McGillis for the simple reason that her character does not appear in the Tom Gun script:

maverick. Exit her role as an instructor and her romance with the hero embodied by Tom Cruise, so, thirty years after the events of the story released in 1986, the whole issue for director Joseph Kosinski was not to "always look in the 'back " :

"[The first installment stories] aren't stories we're pitching" for the sequel, he told Insider.

For the director, it was “important to introduce new characters […] It was an incredible opportunity to integrate the character of Jennifer Connelly. The 51-year-old actress plays Penny Benjamin, the romantic protagonist of this new era for Top Gun.

Top Gun wasn't the hottest movie of the 1980s. But still, young Tom Cruise, with his crooked teeth and beatnik smile, Charlie's (Kelly McGillis) wavy hair and penetrating gaze, had something hot.

We see again with excitement this scene where, invited to dinner at his teacher's house, Pete Mitchell asks him if he can "take a shower", before discussing everything and nothing on the patio. The shower is taken by Top Gun: Maverick. Never has a sex scene been so stark as the one that brings together Tom Cruise and Penny (Jennifer Connely) in the single mother's attic. So nothing happens on the screen that one comes to doubt that they really slept together.

Top Gun was a height of homoeroticism, but Maverick does not seem determined to take over this part of the legacy of Tony Scott's blockbuster. The modest love between Pete Mitchell and the one who shared his cockpit, Goose (Anthony Edwards), died with the co-pilot. This love, which unfolded with great blows of hefty, bare-chested guys in the locker rooms of the flight school, is replaced by a good old conflicting father-son relationship between Tom Cruise and Goose's son.

Goose, original co-pilot of Pete Mitchell, died in the crash of his plane, after having ejected in flight. The experience, traumatic for Pete Mitchell, is all the more so for the widow of Goose and their infant, Bradley.

Thirty-five years have passed but the son has forgiven nothing for his father's co-pilot, especially since he rotted his record at flight school, for reasons he does not know.

Miles Teller was given the heavy task of playing the role of Bradley Bradshaw: a character torn between his resentment towards Pete Mitchell and his sense of military duty.

Teller delivers a fair and sensitive performance of this character. And the narrative axis it carries is crucial, but let's say no more.

And for aviation enthusiasts: In Maverick, Top Gun students no longer fly Grumman F-14 Tomcats like in 1986, but Boeing F-18 Super Hornets. The enemy MiGs have disappeared, like the red star on their bodywork...

The voice of Val Kilmer (Iceman) is a subject that, today, is not funny.

The actor, a huge fallen Hollywood star, underwent a tracheotomy in 2017, following throat cancer. Unable to speak, he is voiced by an artificial intelligence in Top Gun: Maverick. Which allows his character to express himself to taunt this devil of Pete Mitchell: “From you or me, Pete, who is the best driver ? smiles Iceman.

Response from Tom Cruise: "We had such a good time so far."

THE UNITED STATES RAISE THE TONE AGAINST CHINA

TO DEFEND TAIWAN

Joe Biden made this statement at the end of his talks with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. The American president wants to tone up American strategy in Asia as Japan is determined to strengthen its military capabilities as part of its alliance with the United States.

The American president thus answered “yes” during a press conference, “if China invades Taiwan, we will come to its defense”. Then he brings this nuance: “We agreed with the policy of one China, but that Taiwan can be taken by force, it is not appropriate. The Chinese are already flirting with danger by flying so close to Taiwan. »

Dissuade China from invading Taiwan

This franchise access from Joe Biden relieves Japan, which would be on the front line in the event of an attack on Taiwan by China. The last Japanese island, in the very south, is only a hundred kilometers from Taiwan.

On Russia, Joe Biden says, “Making Putin pay a high price for his invasion of Ukraine is necessary to deter China from invading Taiwan. »

Maintain calm economic relations with China

The US president is tough on the diplomatic front with China, but he is looking for appeasement on the economic front.

Joe Biden is ready to lift certain tariff barriers vis-à-vis China. Big American business wants neither an economic war nor a military war with China.

Biden launches new Asia-Pacific economic partnership

Joe Biden announces the start of a new economic partnership in Asia-Pacific with 13 first countries, excluding China which does not see it with a good eye. "It's a commitment to work with our close friends and partners in the region on the challenges that matter most to ensuring economic competitiveness in the 21st century," the US president said in Tokyo during a press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

This new Indo-Pacific Partnership (IPEF), which is not a free trade agreement, revolves around four key sectors: the digital economy, supply chains, green energies and the fight against corruption. It is made up of 13 countries, the famous diplomatic "Quad": the United States, Japan, India and Australia, as well as Brunei, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand , the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Together, they represent 40% of global GDP, and are well regarded in business circles. Other countries could be included.

But this partnership does not include Taiwan, which is world champion in semiconductors.

With this initiative, the United States wants to offer an alternative to China, the second world power, very influential in Asia-Pacific.

Beijing also accuses Washington of seeking

"to form small cliques in the name of freedom and openness" hoping to "contain China", according to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

A MEMBER OF THE MARCOS FAMILY RETURNS

IN POWER HERE'S WHAT IT MEANS FOR

DEMOCRACY IN THE PHILIPPINES

Under Duterte 's rule since 2016, the president has earned a reputation for using disinformation on social media - particularly via Facebook - to cultivate support for his brutal "war on drugs". At the same time, he frequently attacked the work of journalists and critics of his regime.

Duterte made a deliberate attempt to undermine the free press. In December 2020, after months of systematic targeting by President Duterte, the Philippine Congress voted to shut down ABS-CBN – the country's largest broadcast network.

The Philippines remains one of the most dangerous places for journalists. As recently as December 2021, journalist Jesus Malabanan was shot dead by gunmen in his own home. Malabanan, a well-respected journalist who worked on Reuters' coverage of the Philippines' drug war, was the 22nd journalist murdered under Duterte's regime.

The weakening and intimidation of journalism and independent media have paved the way for the growth of disinformation.

Bongbong Marcos' presidential run has been widely criticized for media manipulation. And misinformation has been at the heart of shifting public opinion toward the family.

In 2019, Rappler, the independent news site founded by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Ressa, conducted a three-part investigation that revealed the extent to which Marcos deployed digital propaganda to propel himself into favor. of the public through the use of disinformation disseminated on other social networks. platforms, and through various fan pages and other viral content. The early Marcos regime was recast in misleading propaganda that portrayed the era as a time of progress while denying its human rights abuses.

And in 2020, Cambridge Analytica whistleblower Barbara Kaiser alleged that Marcos contacted the company – known for its collection of Facebook user data for political campaigns – in a bid to further bolster the picture of his family. The Marcos campaign denies this link.

Never again ?

Bongbong Marcos' election comes nearly 50 years after his father declared martial law on September 23, 1972.

This original era of Marcos – with its extrajudicial executions and rampant corruption – was subjected to revisionism, with many Filipinos seeing the Marcos years as a time of stability and growth while ignoring abuses. The $10 billion looted by the Marcos - which once made headlines - is less talked about. Imelda Marcos, herself a notorious kleptocrat, has turned into an object of fascination.

Protesters gather holding signs saying 'Never Again Martial Law'.

Meanwhile, the voices of martial law era survivors and activists who oppose authoritarian rule have become less effective in the face of President Duterte's popularity. Their message of "never again" failed to disrupt the Marcos family's return to power.

In 2018, on the 35th anniversary of Ninoy Aquino's assassination, Imee Marcos - Bongbong's sister - said that "Generation Y has evolved [from the story of Ferdinand Marcos], and I think the people my age should also move forward".

From Adrian De Leon, published in TheConversation Assistant Professor of American Studies and Ethnicity, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences University of Southern California

THE BORNE GOVERNMENT OR THE CALL OF THE FOOT  ON THE MELANCHONIST LEFT

Admittedly, the appointments to the Quai d'Orsay of Catherine Colonna and to Culture of Rima Abdul Malak could be a novelty, but in fact they are nothing extraordinary: the former, a seasoned diplomat, has already been a minister twice under Jacques Chirac and the second was until then the cultural adviser to Emmanuel Macron.

In addition, the vast majority of the most important positions have been entrusted to ministers already in place or to experienced politicians. Indeed, to carry out the ecological planning, the tenant of Matignon has surrounded herself with two faces known to the Castex government. Amélie de Montchalin – ex-Public Service – who will be in charge of Ecological Transition and Territorial Cohesion and Agnès Pannier-Runacher (ex-Industry) who will lead Energy Transition.

As for the other sovereign ministries, except for Foreign Affairs, therefore, there again, Elisabeth Borne trusted the “elders” of the last five-year term. Thus, Bruno Le Maire was reappointed at the head of Bercy as Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industrial and Digital Sovereignty. The one who put in place “whatever it costs” at the height of the pandemic, then the recovery plan and who had the support of the bosses and the support of Brussels confirms his key role in the macronie. He is now number 2 in the government. In number 3, another essential of the last quinquennium the former Sarkozyist Gérald Darmanin remains indeed inside. Damien Abad, the former boss of the LR deputies in the Assembly, is the latest war prize. The deputy for Ain inherits the Ministry of Solidarity, autonomy and people with disabilities. Yet given as a starting point, Éric Dupond-Moretti also retains his functions in Justice, despite his indictment. Finally, Sébastien Lecornu, the former overseas minister, waspromoted to the Armies, in place of Florence Parly.

In addition, Olivier Véran left Health to Brigitte Bourguignon (former Secretary of State in charge of autonomy) and took over the Ministry of Relations with Parliament. As for Gabriel Attal, he was appointed to the Public Accounts. And it is Olivia Grégoire, (former Secretary of State for the Social and Solidarity Economy), who replaces him as government spokesperson. Close to Emmanuel Macron, Clément Beaune remains in Europe.

To the left of Mélanchon

This new government must also be read through its political balances.

Elisabeth Borne, through her career, must mark a leftward inflection. The Modem Marc Fesneau, the former Minister of Relations with Parliament, goes to Agriculture. Olivier Dussopt, the boss of Territories of Progress, the left wing of Macronie, is appointed Minister of Labor. He was previously in charge of the Budget. As for Franck Riester, the president of Agir, he remains in Foreign Trade. Christophe Béchu, the mayor of Angers and number 2 of Horizons - the party of Édouard Philippe -, has been appointed minister delegate in charge of local authorities.

Places also go to first-day walkers. Party boss Stanislas Guerini has been appointed Minister of Transformation and Public Service, the President of the Law Commission in the Assembly, Yaël Braun-Pivet, has been promoted to Overseas France. Amélie Oudéa-Castera, the former patroness of the Tennis Federation, reaches the Ministry of Sports.

The greatest turn to the left is embodied on the side of National Education in the replacement of Jean-Michel Blanquer, holding a strict secular line, by the historian Pap Ndiaye, "who is accused of to belong to "decolonial" thought, and to have declared a few years ago in an interview with Le Monde, that "there is indeed structural racism in France".

For the right, this appointment is above all a signal to a fringe of Jean-Luc Mélenchon's electorate…”, analyzes Anita Hausser, journalist, in her editorial Electoral cynicism and deconstruction in government at Atlantico.

A WOMAN PRIME MINISTER IN MATIGNON ?

Required profile:

ecological fiber, social dimension, attachment to the "productive question", political experience and a sense of listening. The only certainty, believes his entourage :

it will be a woman. For the head of the Modem François Bayrou, an ally of Emmanuel Macron, you need a person, man or woman, who has “leadership, experience.

And you need a fairly great empathy with the President of the Republic "because" when the President of the Republic hates the Prime Minister things can only turn out badly, "he stressed to the Grand Jury on Sunday, citing the case of François Mitterrand and his Prime Minister Michel Rocard (1988-1991).

The women's card seems to be a major asset for Macron. Because 74% of French people are for it, according to an Ifop poll published in the JDD. Because installing a "Prime Minister", for the first time since Edith Cresson, the only woman in the entire history of the Fifth Republic to have held the post of head of government, from May 1991 to April 1992, would certainly be a signal strong.

And, also, because the Head of State knows that he must correct the image that his political system has offered up to now: that of a "boys' club", as he had shaken up one of his interlocutors during the debate “Face aux Françaises”, organized at the beginning of March by LCI and the magazine Elle.

The name of Catherine Vautrin emerges

After those of the Minister of Labor Elisabeth Borne and the former Minister of Health Marisol Touraine, the name that comes up insistently is that of Catherine Vautrin, former Minister of Social Cohesion of Jacques Chirac, who had given her support to Emmanuel Macron before the 1st round of the presidential election. Problem: this former LR MP, who campaigned against same-sex marriage in 2012 and 2013, bristles on the left.

"She is undoubtedly a woman of quality" but "is she ready to deny all the ideas she has defended for so long", criticized MEP LR Nadine Morano on Europe 1.

Also points to the name of the Vice-President of the Senate Valérie Létard, stamped "baby Borloo" for having started in politics in Valenciennes alongside the centrist Jean-Louis Borloo, before being Secretary of State in charge of green technologies in his ministry. of Ecology from 2009 to 2010, within the Fillon government. She also ticks the "social box" since she was Secretary of State for Solidarity in the same Fillon government from 2007 to 2009.

A casting intended to confirm or not the orientation that the Head of State intends to give for this start of the second five-year term, as important as the ability of the future Prime Minister to pilot the explosive pension reform, to support the ecological transition and even, above all this, to lead the battle for the legislative elections.

End of suspense at the end of the day...

NORTH KOREA FACES 1.2 MILLION COVID-19 

CASES IN THREE DAYS

While almost all countries have been affected to varying degrees by successive waves of Covid-19 for more than two years, North Korea has always claimed to be part of the three territories, with Turkmenistan and the Tuvalu islands, to have never been exposed to the virus, observes Vice.

If doubts still remain as to this absence of SARS-CoV-2 on North Korean territory since the start of the pandemic, the situation has in any case changed since Thursday, May 12. That day, state media reported – admittedly half-heartedly – ​​the very first case of Covid-19 in the country. Since then, there have been nearly 1.2 million people infected and fifty deaths from infection with the virus. An impressive development in such a short time which, according to Vice, could be greatly underestimated. A question is now on everyone's lips: how did the virus enter the country? Especially given the fact that “North Korea was one of the first to seal its foreign borders in January 2020 and to paralyze international trade – including with China”, recalls Vice.

According to Ethan Jewell, Seoul-based correspondent for NK News, one of the main avenues to explain the spread of the virus on North Korean territory would however be to be sought on the side of China, a country also hard hit by the Covid- 19 for several months. Also according to Vice, "there have been numerous reports of people making illegal trips [...] in an effort to provide essential resources to impoverished and starving North Korean communities".

A strained medical system

According to Vic e, North Korean soldiers could then have found themselves in contact with some of these Chinese smugglers. They would then have gone to a military parade organized in Pyongyang on April 25, transforming the event into a giant cluster. For Hong Min, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, there is no doubt: “The current Covid epidemic [in North Korea] is closely linked to the April 25 parade”.

On the other hand, faced with the number of cases which continues to increase, the North Korean health system is struggling. "In town, you have a very big general hospital... but if you go to the villages, they hardly have any clinics," Hong Lim explains. The medical system is under strain and the shortage of drugs is evident.”

Due to the few people vaccinated and the lack of available treatments, experts believe that North Korea could introduce draconian containment measures to limit the spread of the virus, like its Chinese neighbor.

DEPP-HEARD TRIAL WHO IS LYING ?

Since April 11, the conflict between Johnny Depp and his ex-wife Amber Heard has unleashed passions. While the former filed a $50 million lawsuit against the latter over an article in the Washington Post where she said she was the victim of domestic violence, Amber Heard filed a $100 million countersuit , all leading to an extraordinary trial because of the status of the protagonists, their excesses, and its resonance. The ex-spouses wage a merciless war with sordid revelations.

Amber Heard was still at the helm Tuesday in Fairfax court. And after delivering new prosecution testimony against Johnny Depp, the latter's lawyers proceeded to cross-examination. And it's an understatement to say that she was mistreated… but she didn't flinch.

During this day, Amber Heard was questioned about her alleged injuries. Because if she has repeatedly claimed that Johnny Depp had hit her, especially in the face, she never went to a doctor to have her injuries noted (but she says she has breathing problems because of scars in her nose) . Nor does anyone seem to have ever seen any traces of beatings. In real life, or in a photo… “You should see what it looks like under the makeup“, she replied. If Amber Heard had already admitted having beaten her ex-husband at least once, it was only ever to respond to violence, to defend herself, she continued to support.

Camille Vasquez, one of the actor's lawyers, read a message left by Amber and addressed to Johnny in a "love diary": "I'm sorry, I can go crazy, I'm sorry to have you hurt, like you I can get mean when provoked”.

And when Camille Vasquez claimed that he "isn't the first partner you've assaulted, is he?" “, Ambert Heard denied. What is it about? In 2009, Amber Heard was suspected of punching then-girlfriend Tasya van Ree in the arm at Seattle airport. The police had intervened and Amber had been summoned to court the following day. But no charges were filed. The artist had defended the actress, citing a "minor" and "misinterpreted" incident.

And even today, Amber Heard assures her, “I never assaulted Mr. Depp or anyone with whom I had a romantic relationship, ever. Many times I had to use my body to defend myself, and that included hitting where I could if it allowed me to escape. It meant a swollen face rather than a broken nose. »

The two camps are preparing their weapons without worrying that their increasingly convoluted passes weaken the voice of the victims in general and, beyond that, the MeToo movement. "We ask a victim of domestic violence to be perfect, we scrutinize the smallest corners of his existence, his flaws, his addictions, his sexuality, and we judge him unfit for the status of victim, nuance Yael Mellul, lawyer and specialist in this subject. However, a victim of violence is a person who is doing badly, very badly, often in serious depression, with risky behavior, who may have sunk into alcoholism or drug addiction, on psychotropic drugs. “A definition which, in the end, seems to stick as well to Amber Heard as to Johnny Depp. Worried, the interpreter of Divinidylle, however, has reason to be,

By the end of the trial, in mid-June, the suspense remains at its height.

ELISABETH BORNE PRIME MINISTER

A CHOICE OF REASON

The Head of State indeed wanted a profile "attached to the social question, the environmental question and the productive question". He also wanted to entrust the reins of government to a woman, thirty years after Edith Cresson, the only woman to have held the position in France until then. Minister since 2017 of the Philippe and Castex governments, this “techno” had been cited for several weeks to enter Matignon. Woman, on the left and with an environmental streak, the former boss of the RATP, aged 61, ticked many boxes wanted by Emmanuel Macron

"I think it's a very good choice, because she's a remarkable person, not because she's a woman," immediately reacted her distant predecessor on BFM. “She is sufficiently competent and experienced, and in addition, she is courageous, which is a very necessary virtue in this function”.

A former student of the Ecole Polytechnique (class of 1981), an engineer with a degree from the Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées, Elisabeth Borne did not go through the ENA, the classic course for great servants of the State. She began her career in 1987 at the Ministry of Equipment, before joining various ministerial cabinets and being appointed prefect of Vienne and the Poitou-Charentes region in February 2013 – she is the first woman to hold this position. Her career in the senior public service earned her this image of "good technician", combining discretion and loyalty to the president.

If Elisabeth Borne cut her teeth in the ministerial mysteries, the polytechnician also rubs shoulders with the business world. In 2002, she was director of strategy for SNCF before joining Eiffage in 2007. But she is best known for her time at RATP, which she headed between 2015 and 2017.

She led two major reforms of the quinquennium

Elisabeth Borne joined the government in May 2017 as Minister in charge of Transport under the leadership of Nicolas Hulot, Minister for the Ecological and Inclusive Transition. She impresses in this position by leading one of the first projects of the five-year term, the thorny reform of the SNCF.

With the arrival of Jean Castex at the head of the government, she changed her portfolio to that of the Minister of Labour, Employment and Integration. She is notably responsible for two major reforms, that of pensions and that of unemployment insurance. If the first does not succeed, the second comes into force in December 2021.

"Minister of impossible reforms made possible", according to the punchline of former Minister Castaner, the new tenant of Matignon will now have to demonstrate her ability to lead a government team.

THE ISSUES OF MEMBERSHIP IN NATO

FROM FINLAND AND SWEDEN