THE CONTESTED VISIT OF MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN THE CROWN PRINCE OF SAUDI ARABIA TO FRANCE

He arrived in Greece on Tuesday July 26, 2022 for a two-day visit before a second stop in France, where he was received at the Elysee Palace on Thursday by Emmanuel Macron for a working dinner.

This meeting signs a little more the "rehabilitation" of the Saudi crown prince, less than two weeks after Joe Biden's visit to Saudi Arabia - and this famous "check fist" between the two men, which has earned much criticism from the American president , he who had yet declassified a damning report on the responsibility of the crown prince in the assassination of Jamal Khashogghi. The embarrassing investigator for the reigning family had been savagely suffocated and then cut with a saw at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul (Turkey), by a commando linked to the crown prince, according to the CIA investigation. Since then, MBS, a real strongman in the kingdom, had been almost quarantined by the capitals.

This was without counting the war in Ukraine which put the Gulf monarchies back at the center of the oil game destabilized by Western sanctions against Moscow. The “cold realpolitik” of this visit to Paris prevails over moral principles. The journalist Georges Malbrunot, specialist in the monarchy, thus specifies on franceinfo that the Kingdom is more than ever “essential and is even more so since the Ukrainian crisis. »,

Emmanuel Macron was also the first Western leader to visit Saudi Arabia last December. The French president had to do a balancing act by evoking the need to speak to the crown prince who represents the first country in golf, a key player in the region, while specifying that dialogue did not mean being complacent.

The war in Ukraine and the oil issue

First of all, there is the aspect related to energy issues. The EU needs the cooperation of the Gulf countries in energy matters. This file has already been at the heart of the visit of Mohammed ben Zayed, President of the United Arab Emirates, during his visit to Paris on July 18. Westerners want to convince Riyadh to open the floodgates of oil, of which the kingdom is one of the main producers, in order to lower prices. So far, the Saudi leader has refused to increase production to meet his commitment to OPEC, repeating that his country was at maximum capacity with little room for improvement. The Europeans are also trying to find other sources of supply in the absence of an increase in production.

Georges Malbrunot warns, however, "We risk being disappointed because Saudi Arabia is bound by certain commitments made within the framework of OPEC +, in which Vladimir Putin's Russia is located and with which Saudi Arabia maintains good relations. (...) Above all, Saudi Arabia has not invested enough in recent years in its oil production structures to be able to increase its production from 10 million barrels per day to 13 million, "he says. .

Files of Lebanon and Iran

Another particular file between France and Saudi Arabia concerns Lebanon immersed in a. dramatic economic and financial crisis. Paris particularly wants greater Saudi involvement in Lebanon. Iran is also a key point: the Iranian nuclear issue, at a time when talks between the great powers and Iran to revive the 2015 agreement have stalled. Saudi Arabia, Iran's arch-rival, fears Tehran will become a nuclear power and is increasingly worried about its activities in the region. The Saudis are therefore seeking to strengthen the political partnership with their main allies and benefit from their support at a time when concerns about the state of progress of the Iranian nuclear program are real.

Economic issues

Added to this are economic challenges for both countries. France intends to promote its know-how in the Kingdom which is engaged in a race against time to succeed in its diversification. The ambition is to build a “new Arabia” that is more prosperous, more liberal, more connected and open to the world. French companies therefore wish to benefit from the many opportunities of the Vision 2030 plan, which aims to prepare the country for the post-oil era by promoting new growth sectors. French expertise is appreciated; this is particularly the case of the Al-'Ula project, a Nabataean site listed as a UNESCO World Heritage Site, the enhancement and development of which have been entrusted to French players.

For its part, Saudi Arabia intends to invest in the French economic recovery plan. Arabia is indeed a great financial power. The Saudi Public Investment Fund aims to become the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world and manage more than 2,000 billion dollars by 2030 thanks to the revenues generated by hydrocarbons and privatizations. The country's financial institutions as well as private groups are interested in investing in French groups as part of the recovery plan.

What about human rights ?

Still, the image of France can take a hit: according to Abdullah Alaoudh, director for the Gulf region of the organization Democracy for the Arab World Now founded by Jamal Khashoggi, this visit to France is "a dishonor". The reaction, this Wednesday, of Amnesty International, considering that "France turns a blind eye" to "all human rights violations", shows that the bet is risky. Especially since the visit last week of the President of the United Arab Emirates, Mohammed bin Zayed, had already caused an outcry.

Vis-à-vis these two leaders of the Gulf, the diplomats of the Élysée prefer to emphasize the dynamic of "openness", in which they engage their country, rather than on the repressive aspects of freedom...