THE RE-ELECTION OF EMMANUEL MACRON

OR A DEFAULT VICTORY

This success is also in line with the results of the first round, which had interrupted a dynamic that seemed to benefit, at the beginning of April, the main opponents of Emmanuel Macron (Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon): with 4.5 points and 1.6 million voters ahead of his pursuer, the outgoing president approached this second round in a favorable tie situation, especially since he could count on the support of a larger number of candidates in the first round (Pécresse, Jadot, Roussel, Hidalgo – against Zemmour and Dupont-Aignan) as well as on Jean-Luc Mélenchon's repeated appeal not to “give a single voice to Mrs. Le Pen”.

Emmanuel Macron's victory should not, however, hide the lessons of the ballot.

The Three Teachings

First: Only 33% of his voters say they voted for him on his policy proposals. A victory yes, but a victory by default, even if one in two of his voters also voted for his presidential stature.

Second: Never has a far-right candidate been so high under the Fifth Republic, never have the French seemed so divided. Nor as defiant towards politics, to see the record rate – except for the Pompidou-Poher second round of the 1969 presidential election – of abstention: 28.01% (final figure). Almost one in three voters.

Third: Melancholy voters in the second round did not behave mechanically and uniformly. 38% of them abstained and 8% voted blank or null. On the other hand, the votes carried over were more in favor of Emmanuel Macron (36%) than Marine Le Pen (18%) but with however an increase of 10% compared to 2017. A significant proportion voted for Marine Le Pen, especially in the countryside, where Le Pen is now the majority, in this "peripheral France" described by Christophe Guilluy as well as in the overseas territories.

A fractured country

Doesn't the Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey also point out that 77% of French people think, after this election, that "there will be unrest and tension in the country in the coming months"? Equally worrying, 20% of those polled confide that their feelings after this re-election are “disappointment” (20% saying they are relieved) and 18% say they are angry. After a first five-year term marked by the Yellow Vests crisis, such a feeling is obviously not to be neglected.

Well aware of this deep divide, Emmanuel Macron tried to reassure this other France, also addressing these voters in his victory speech at the foot of the Eiffel Tower, late in the evening. "I am no longer the candidate of a camp but the president of all," he says. Reducing the divide, calming the country will be his first task. “We will have to be benevolent and respectful, because our country is steeped in so many doubts and so many divisions”, he warns, serious, in contrast to the joy of the supporters.

But reducing the divide, calming the country will not be easy, especially in such a tense context, with the war in Ukraine, the economic and social effects of which are added to those of the pandemic. The defeated in the 2 nd round as in the 1 st are not mistaken, who launched, barely proclaimed the results of the presidential election, the battle of the 3 rd round, the legislative elections of 12 and 19 June.

“A resounding victory” for Le Pen

Without even giving Emmanuel Macron time to join his supporters on the Champ-de-Mars to open the champagne, Marine Le Pen, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Éric Zemmour sparked hostilities. “The result represents in itself a resounding victory”, she proclaims from the pavilion of Armenonville, in the Bois de Boulogne. For the legislative battle, she leaves no doubt about her determination. “I will lead this battle alongside Jordan Bardella […], I will continue my commitment to France and the French,” promises Marine Le Pen to her supporters. It even displaysits strategy calling for a broad rally on the right, in order to "present or support candidates everywhere". Targeted, the right wing of LR, the sovereignists of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan and of course above all the new Reconquest party of his rival Zemmour…

For his part, intervening shortly afterAfter the announcement of the results, Jean-Luc Mélenchon tackled "the worst elected president of the Fifth Republic" according to him.And wants to be "elected" Prime Minister.

The third man therefore – shortly behind the RN candidate – of the 1st round, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, to proclaim: “The 3rd round begins this evening”.