MACRON WHICH STRATEGIES

FOR THIS NEW FIVE-YEAR ?

By becoming, at the age of 44, the first President to be re-elected by direct universal suffrage without following a period of cohabitation, Emmanuel Macron achieved an unprecedented performance in the history of the Fifth Republic.

This success, however, hides a paradoxical situation since it is accompanied by the highest abstention in the second round of a presidential election after Georges Pompidou in 1969 (31% against 28% this year) and the highest score ever obtained by a far-right candidate at this stage of the election.

The celebrations and the speech that followed the results of this second round reflected this contrasting situation. The party was short and Emmanuel Macron did not fail to underline the things he was going to have to change (need to change his method, to take into account opposition, to highlight certain themes such as ecology, etc.) even though he had just been elected with the 3rd best percentage score of the Fifth Republic (58.54% after Jacques Chirac's 82.21% in 2002 and his 66.10% in 2017) and a superior performance to the polls between the two towers.

While the legislative elections are now widely perceived as a third round of the presidential election that could lead to a period of cohabitation (which no newly elected president has ever known), the strategic challenges appear numerous for Emmanuel Macron.

The crucial choice of the Prime Minister

The 2017 legislative elections were marked by record abstention (51.3% in the first round and 57.4% in the second round) and by disunity among opponents of the new President. Driven by the momentum of Emmanuel Macron's victory, the alliance between En Marche and the MoDem had won this election by a large margin by obtaining 350 deputies out of 577 seats and the choice of a close friend of Alain Juppé, Édouard Philippe, as Prime Minister had undoubtedly contributed to this success.

The situation could be different this year if the National Rally finally decides to agree with the movement of Éric Zemmour Reconquête! or if Jean-Luc Mélenchon managed to bring together, under the banner of a new People's Union, all the leftist formations.

The first strategic challenge for the re-elected president therefore certainly lies in the choice of the new prime minister and in the impact that this appointment could have on the results of the general elections on 12th and 19th June.

After two Prime Ministers from the ranks of the right (Édouard Philippe and Jean Castex), it would seem logical, given the results of the 1st round and the announcement of a future Prime Minister in charge of ecological planning, to favor a personality more marked on the left and of ecological sensitivity. After two men, the idea of ​​a female personality is also attractive and would respond to stated ambitions in terms of parity. The possibility of a person coming from civil society would also undoubtedly be an interesting strategic option and a sign in the direction of people who have turned away from the elections or who are demanding new forms of political expression.

After Édouard Philippe and Jean Castex, a woman at Matignon ?

The question of leadership

Two other elements will also be taken into account: the capacity of the person appointed to lead a battle in the legislative elections which promises to be particularly virulent in view of the declarations of Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the progression of votes in favor of the extreme right and the ability to get along with the President of the Republic. This last aspect refers to the question of leadership and the balance of power between the president and the prime minister. At this stage, Emmanuel Macron gives the impression of wanting to favor a more transformational leadership, relying more on trust in others and the ability to convince, and less narcissistic and Jupiterian, as he has often been criticized for. This apparent desire could also weigh in his choice.

The choices of the people who decide to work with him, like that of the alliances that will be forged, will necessarily be marked by the ambitions that the prospect of the presidential election of 2027 is already giving rise to.

But if the agreement and the complicity between the two heads of the executive are important elements, the situation which begins will also be particular insofar as Emmanuel Macron will not be able this time to succeed himself after two successive mandates. The choices of the people who decide to work with him, like the projects of the alliances that will be forged, will necessarily be marked by the ambitions that the prospect of the presidential election of 2027 is already giving rise to. Personal strategies risk colliding and his ability to control the power and balance of power of each other will be a key element as the end of his five-year term approaches.

The issue of alliances

In terms of alliances, the coopetition strategies (a term designating cooperation between competitors) that Emmanuel Macron will try to put in place also risk being affected by this deadline and it is likely that competition will quickly take precedence over cooperation and collaboration.

The results of this presidential election seemed to mark the end of the right/left divide which had structured the Fifth Republic until 2017. This historical bipolarization has given way to a French political spectrum made up of three blocks.

In this new landscape, the presidential movement represents an enlarged center. Emmanuel Macron's ability to bring together, for the legislative elections and over the next five years, former members of the Socialist Party and the UMP, tempted by the gathering of patriots from all sides desired by Marine Le Pen, the Union of the Rights defended by Éric Zemmour or the new People's Union advocated by La France Insoumise, will be crucial if he wishes to carry out his projects.

The Macronian “at the same time” symbol of a paradoxical world ?

Finally, the most difficult challenge for Emmanuel Macron in the period that opens will perhaps concern the sustainability of his doctrine of "at the same time". This calls for taking into account the complexity of the world around us to justify seemingly opposing actions and projects.

This approach notably echoes the theory of paradoxes increasingly used today in management science to understand and resolve the tensions arising from contradictory injunctions and paradoxical situations faced by organizations.

At a time when Emmanuel Macron's main opponents reproach him for the lack of radicalism in his decisions, the first question is whether such a strategy can enable him to gather and obtain a majority to govern after the legislative elections. next June. Above all, can this approach respond effectively to problems as profound as the strength of migratory flows, purchasing power difficulties or environmental issues ?

Beyond the actions necessary to reconcile rural and urban, globalist and national, rich and poor, the strategy advocated by Emmanuel Macron in environmental matters, and focused both on strong economic growth and on the preservation of the planet, could well come up against the limits of his “at the same time” method.

This is undoubtedly the biggest strategic challenge facing Emmanuel Macron if he wants to make his second five-year term a recognized and indisputable success.

According to Olivier Guyottot in TheConversation, teacher-researcher in strategy and political science, INSEEC Grande École.