TEN YEARS OF THE SILK ROADS

A TITANIC CHINESE PROJECT

Historically, the Silk Roads were a network of trade linking the Chinese world to the Mediterranean basin, since Antiquity. Archaeological excavations have thus revealed the existence of monetary circulation over very long distances.

The New Silk Roads, a Chinese strategic project initiated in 2013, go far beyond their historical heritage. The aim is to economically connect China to Europe by integrating the regions of Central Asia through an extensive network of road and rail corridors. This program aims to establish a new generation of transnational trade platforms. In addition, in its maritime component, this network of trade routes includes the African coastal regions of the Indian Ocean.

In English, the expression Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) replaced from 2017, in official terminology, the expression “One Belt, One Road” (“one belt, one road”) or OBOR to erase the “predatory” image of the project.

tToday, these Silk Roads have become a much broader label than just "road" and "belt", extending as far as South America. They mainly bring together nations from the “Global South”, developing countries often dissatisfied with the world economic order dominated by the West and the United States. Not since the Marshall Plan has the world seen such a large-scale project, raising concerns in the West, where we see China building a powerful instrument of economic and political power on a global scale.

Chinese economic objectives

China's objectives in this initiative are multiple on the economic level. It seeks to increase its exports, sell off its industrial excess capacity, and find new markets for its construction and public works companies. Central Asia offers a growing market for these ambitions. In addition, these new trade routes allow China to diversify and secure its energy supplies, reducing its dependence on the Gulf countries and Russia. By establishing cooperation agreements with countries such as Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Burma, China is also strengthening the security of its new supply routes.

Political objectives

Politically, the objective is as much domestic as international. Internally, China must ensure the integrity of its territory. The province of Xinjiang, very rich in raw materials and at the crossroads of hydrocarbon routes, is regularly plagued by ethnic conflicts. Beijing wants development aid for neighboring countries (Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan) to reduce instability at the borders and inside the country. The internal objective is grafted onto a regional policy objective in Central Asia: to extend Chinese influence against the historic Russian actor, and to assert itself as a stabilizing actor in international relations.

The deployment of the Silk Roads

Initially, China's colossal projects impressed and attracted the desire of African governments. Many infrastructures have emerged on the African continent thanks to Chinese investments even if the tap has closed in recent years, faced with the weight of debts contracted and the slowdown of the Chinese economy.

In Mozambique, a suspension bridge, the longest in Africa, now spans Maputo Bay. Cost of this work: more than 750 million euros.

In Kenya, a railway line of some 500 kilometers has been linking the capital Nairobi and the port hub of Mombasa since 2017, costing $5 billion, one of the country's most expensive projects since its independence. Djibouti, which has a host of megaprojects and hosts Beijing's first external military base, has seen the development of the Doraleh terminal, for $590 million.

However, the Chinese offer is increasingly criticized, in particular for financing in exchange for contracts awarded to Chinese companies, to the detriment of other international or African players. The concept of “win-win partnership” touted by China is reaching its limits, generating debt, networks of influence, dependence and local environmental and social impacts. Its detractors today speak of debt trap diplomacy.

“Debt trap diplomacy”

Thus, the port of Hambantota in Sri Lanka is now under the control of a Chinese state enterprise for 99 years, in order to repay part of the debts. Many countries are realizing that these investments are really just loans at ever-increasing interest rates, creating financially unsustainable debt nationally. An Indian researcher crystallizes these criticisms in a catchy expression: “debt trap diplomacy”.

The same goes for Montenegro. A highway renamed the most expensive in the world, whose work was financed by Chinese loans, has literally plunged the public finances of this small country into the red, creating a dangerous allegiance to Beijing.

If Italy plans to leave the Belt and Road Initiative project, Berlin for its part is wondering. China is Germany's largest trading partner. It is through the port of Hamburg but also of Duisburg that the main goods pass. Duisburg, Europe's largest river port, in the Rhine Valley, has become one of the last stations for Chinese trains. Debates over dependence on China have put a stop to many projects.

Opening up access to strategic installations in Asia, Africa, the Persian Gulf, Europe and even the Americas, this seems to be Beijing's real objective.

Brussels therefore sought to regain control, in particular so as not to leave the field open to Beijing, particularly in Africa. The EU has launched its own infrastructure development project called “Global Gateway”.

A contrasting record in Africa

In Africa, however, the results are rather mixed. Indeed, China has managed to integrate the vast majority of African countries, with the exception of Mauritius and Eswatini - which recognizes Taiwan. China has increased its financing capacities, largely more than investment, also stamping all infrastructure projects as part of the new Silk Roads, and even for those launched before 2013. From this point of view, the project is relatively a success.

In addition, the Silk Roads are not only focused on the infrastructure sector, but also on other sectors linked to the development of cooperation in agriculture, health, education for example which correspond to local wishes. development of partner countries.

At a time of the war in Ukraine and the economic slowdown of Chinese power, it is difficult to assess the scale of the Belt and Road initiative, as it is called in English.

However, the project is far from representing a planned economic offensive by China.

The scattering of investments between very varied sectors (transport and energy, but also agriculture, real estate, finance, etc.) and on all continents makes the project lose its consistency and its readability, which internal critics denounce in China even within the CCP...

But the reality is there: Chinese companies display their logos on all continents, while the influence of Europeans is declining. They came to the aid of countries in dire need.