FRANCE

THE SECTION 49.3 CLEAVER FOR THE BUDGET

The ax of 49.3 has been on everyone's mind since the start of the examination of the Finance Bill (PLF) for 2023 in the National Assembly. MPs knew the executive would use it, but were waiting to find out when. Tuesday, October 18, the government spokesman, Olivier Véran, put an end to the suspense:

the use of 49.3 will be "probably for tomorrow", Wednesday, the last day of examination of the expenditure part of the PLF, he assured.

Several Majority heavyweights have been pushing for the 49.3 to be instigated as soon as possible.

"We are the ones in the arena and we don't want to turn ourselves into punching bags. We had pushed for it to go faster, the government has chosen to go all the way", confides a Renaissance leader.

But Elisabeth Borne opted for negotiation before the forced passage. “To find a compromise, it takes two:

the [opposition] group presidents said from the start that they would not vote for the finance bill.

The blockage does not come from us, and you have shown it well”, declared the Prime Minister, Élisabeth Borne, during a meeting, Tuesday morning, with the deputies Renaissance

However, "we must give the debate a chance, especially since the French do not like 49.3 very much. These tools, such as the requisition [in the refineries on strike, editor's note], must be used with caution", has she added.

The 49.3 brandished by the government

Article 49 paragraph 3 of the French Constitution allows the government to have a text adopted without a vote of Parliament. This stipulates:

"The Prime Minister may, after deliberation by the Council of Ministers, engage the government's responsibility before the National Assembly on the vote on a Finance or Social Security Financing bill. In this case, this bill is considered as adopted, unless a motion of censure, tabled within the following twenty-four hours, is voted under the conditions provided for in the preceding paragraph. The Prime Minister may, in addition, have recourse to this procedure for another project or a bill per session."

The government of Elisabeth Borne, which does not have an absolute majority in the National Assembly to vote for its finance bill, can therefore adopt it despite everything by drawing 49.3. This article allows him to adopt his text without going through the vote of the deputies in the National Assembly. The 2023 budget is then examined in the Senate. In the National Assembly, there is nevertheless, for the opposition, a device to thwart the executive: the motion of censure. It allows not only to reject the adoption of the bill, but also to overthrow the government.

Lack of absolute majority

49.3 is a constitutional weapon available to the government which allows a "forced passage" when its majority in the National Assembly is narrow, even relative. Conversely, in the event of an absolute and comfortable majority, there is no need for the government, most of the time, to use 49-3. During Emmanuel Macron's first five-year term (2017-2022), only one use was identified, by Édouard Philippe, in 2020, on pension reform.

The Prime Minister had an absolute majority but the opposition, in particular La France insoumise, had tabled a very large number of amendments with the aim of obstructing the text.

Several amendments, voted against the opinion of the executive, could thus jump. The deputies, including some members of Renaissance, notably approved a tax on super-dividends proposed by the president of the MoDem group, Jean-Paul Mattei. A Republican amendment restoring the "exit tax" was also voted against the government's opinion.

Motion of censure ?

Elisabeth Borne, should be brought to use it regularly. The last legislative elections only gave it a relative majority. It therefore seems unlikely that the Prime Minister will manage to pass all of her bills without a hitch.

Oppositions divided on a motion of censure To be adopted, a motion of censure requires the votes of the majority of the members of the Assembly. With the current composition of the hemicycle, this would amount to an alliance between the party Les Républicains (LR), the National Rally (RN) and the New Popular Ecological and Social Union (Nupes). However, if the RN and the Nupes are going to table a motion of censure, the two groups should stay in their lane and not vote for the provision of the other. If the motion is passed, the text is rejected and the government overthrown, but this scenario seems unlikely.

But nothing indicates that these oppositions could not join forces in the future.

The threat of a motion of censure indeed hovers over the pension reform currently in consultation.