SHOULD WE BE WORRIED ABOUT THE THREAT OF ENERGY SHORTAGES ?

Should the time be serious for the Minister of the Economy to present the said sobriety as a necessary passage ”, without alternative?

Three days earlier, during a visit to a national gas control center in Ile-de-France, Elisabeth Borne, accompanied by Agnès Pannier-Runacher, had already set the scene. “We have to be energy efficient. I don't know if it's the right term, but in any case we must reduce by 40% by 2050” call for sobriety. A roadmap should apply from this summer to the State, administrations and large companies.

Now the energy companies are turning into “fathers of morality”. "We call for awareness and collective and individual action for each of us to change our behavior and immediately limit our consumption of energy, electricity, gas and petroleum products", wrote Jean-Bernard Lévy and Patrick Pouyanné , CEO of EDF and TotalEnergies, as well as Catherine MacGregor, Managing Director of Engie, in an article published in the Sunday Journal

In the forum of the JDD, the three leaders of French energy suppliers therefore call for "a collective and immediate effort" to avoid a winter under tension. The three call on the French to "immediately" reduce their consumption of fuel, electricity and gas. According to the three energy access providers in France, the risks of shortages and soaring prices are such that they will threaten “social cohesion” next winter.

Indeed "for months now, the European energy system has been under great tension and the French energy system has not been spared", explain Catherine MacGregor, Managing Director of Engie, Jean-Bernard Lévy, Chairman and CEO of EDF. , and Patrick Pouyanné, Chairman and CEO of TotalEnergies. “Acting this summer will allow us to be better prepared to tackle next winter, and in particular to preserve our gas reserves.

These tensions are explained by the war in Ukraine and the Western sanctions, first of all. Deliveries of Russian gas by pipeline have "decline sharply for some countries, including France". “Although increasing, imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are today still too limited to compensate for these declines. The level of alert on gas stocks at European level is therefore high and rationing measures are put in place in certain countries”, they underline.

The world oil market could therefore experience tensions between the level of production and demand during the summer. In the United States, we are entering the 'driving season', the period of the year when car travel is the most important, because people go on vacation. And therefore the one where we need more automotive fuel. In China, the relaxation of the drastic confinements imposed on certain cities will lead to a return to normal travel, and therefore an increase in oil demand.

The weather also has something to do with it. "Climatic conditions and drought are amputating hydraulic production", write the three leaders in their forum. A large part of the French nuclear fleet actually requires water from rivers to be cooled. Consequently, too low a water level, as was the case at the beginning of June for example in the Rhône, can jeopardize these activities.

To these causes are added other handicaps as suggested by the manager of the electricity transmission network (RTE) two weeks ago with TF1. "We are in fact in a pivotal period, marked by a series of events to manage: the closure of oil and coal-fired power stations, that [nuclear] of Fessenheim, but also the delay in the development of other modes of generation”, notes RTE.

In addition to May 24, 27 of the 56 French nuclear reactors were shut down, according to EDF. That's almost half. An unprecedented situation, which is explained by planned closures but also by an unforeseen problem of corrosion. While half of the nuclear fleet is shut down, the Ministry of Energy Transition also reserves “the possibility of operating the Saint-Avold [coal] power plant for a few more hours if we need it l 'next winter'.

In fact, the risk of a shortage hovers so that in the short term, any savings in gas or electricity made today will make it possible to secure stocks for the winter. In the medium term, the government would display more ambitious intentions. "The objective is a roadmap that will allow us to reduce energy consumption by 10% compared to our usual benchmark within two years," said the Minister for Energy Transition. This corresponds to “the first step of the RTE scenario, which aims for a reduction of 40% by 2050”.

However, France is not the only country concerned. To compensate for the reductions in Russian gas deliveries, Germany will, for example, return to coal. A provisional appeal, promises the German Minister of Economy and Climate, who recognizes that this is a bitter decision. The extension of certain power plants will be a short-term measure, over a “limited” period, until March 2024, assures Berlin.

Other countries in Europe have recently announced similar measures. Austria, also dependent on Russian gas, has also announced the upcoming restart of a disused coal-fired power plant, in order to be able to compensate for a possible shortage.

Latest example: the Netherlands. Until now, Dutch coal-fired power plants could not operate at more than 35% of their capacity, according to a law in force since January 2022 to reduce the country's CO2 emissions. They can now "operate at full capacity", announced Monday, June 20 the Dutch Minister of the Environment and Energy, Rob Jetten.

While she advocates energy sobriety, Elisabeth Borne announced last Thursday the extension of the tariff shield until the end of the year. A good signal to encourage people to reduce their consumption ?