A MARSCHALL PLAN FOR THE RECONSTRUCTION OF UKRAINE ESTIMATED AT 750 BILLION EUROS ?

Every year for the past five years, a high-level conference has been held on Ukraine and the reforms it needs to carry out, particularly in the fight against the corruption that is eating away at the country's economy. In its 2021 report, the NGO Transparency International indeed ranks this country 122nd out of 180, still very far behind its EU member neighbors (the worst placed, Bulgaria, is in 78th place).

The war led by Russia, however, has somewhat disrupted the program. And it is reconstruction that is in question until Tuesday in Lugano. Speaking in a video message, President Zelensky stressed that this should be "the common task of the whole democratic world" and "the most important contribution to world peace".

Cost estimated at 750 billion

Participants reflected on a recovery plan for the war-torn country by setting priorities and identifying funding needs. The cost of reconstruction was estimated on Monday at at least 750 billion dollars by the Ukrainian Prime Minister, wondering about “who should pay” before answering that a “key source” of financing should be the seizure of assets of Russia and Russian oligarchs frozen under international sanctions against Moscow. Estimates of the amount of frozen assets range from 287 billion to 479 billion euros ($300 billion to $500 billion), according to Chmygal.

For its part, the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) had estimated the damage caused so far to buildings and infrastructure at nearly 104 billion dollars. In addition, the country's economy has already lost 600 billion dollars according to some estimates.

Strong UK involvement

Very involved, the United Kingdom, which is one of Ukraine's most active allies, will notably support the reconstruction of the city and the region of kyiv, at the request of President Zelensky, the Foreign Office indicated on Sunday . London also plans to work with Kyiv and its allies to host the Ukraine Recovery Conference in 2023 and establish an office in the UK capital to help coordinate those rebuilding efforts.

Towards a “Marshall Plan” for Ukraine

But it is above all the prospect of a “Marshall plan” which is at the center of the discussions. The participants must, in fact, draw the outline of a plan similar to the American economic program which had made it possible to raise Western Europe from the ruins of the Second World War, this time intended for Ukraine. With this in mind, the European Investment Bank (EIB) must also propose the creation of a new fund for Ukraine, which could reach 100 billion euros, according to sources familiar with the plan.

The expression “Marshall Plan” has been used on several occasions with regard to Ukraine by the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz or even the President of the European Council Charles Michel. The one adopted in the United States in April 1948 and entitled "European Recovery Program" (ERP) offered all the countries of Europe, including the USSR and the other communist countries, to benefit from the assistance to material reconstruction and financial recovery for a period of four years. it's necessary

The President of the Swiss Confederation Ignazio Cassis, however, recalled that reconstruction and reforms were "not in competition" to prepare a European, green and digital Ukraine.

"They are getting stronger," added Mr. Cassis, who called for continuing, despite the war, efforts against corruption and to guarantee the functioning of justice.