A RETURN TO ALL DANGERS

FOR THE FRENCH GOVERNMENT ?

Inflation and purchasing power

In France as in Europe, the economic consequences are heavy, starting with the return of inflation. The vote on the bill on purchasing power in July enabled the government to provide a first round of responses. The more than 20 billion euros of measures voted – not without difficulty – this summer to support purchasing power (fuel discount, back-to-school bonus, revaluation of social minima, tariff shield on gas and electricity, increase in cap on tax exemption for overtime…) will they be enough to calm the concerns of the French? Soaring prices, in particular food and energy, will continue to put the executive under pressure. While prices at the pump are down, inflation exceeded 6% in July.

Energy sovereignty

Energy sovereignty will also be on the back-to-school menu. We must "work for our energy sovereignty, to support the French, our companies in the context of this war", declared Emmanuel Macron from the Var. Indeed, autonomy may be difficult to achieve and possible energy shortages following the war waged by Russia in Ukraine cannot be ruled out. In this context, Algeria, the leading African exporter of natural gas, and where the president is going at the end of the week, could be one of the alternative solutions while waiting for profound changes in energy policy.

The climate emergency, after a remarkable summer

The summer was marked by fires and climatic phenomena on an unprecedented scale, such as last week's thunderstorms in Corsica. They recalled the urgency of issues related to global warming. This is why the President of the Republic will organize a government seminar at the end of August devoted in particular to ecology, while the Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne, must also deliver a "strong speech on energy sobriety and transition" during the university. Medef summer school. The Head of State also asked him to “submit in the fall an ecological planning agenda broken down by month and year”, specifies the Elysée.

Security

The summer period was also marked by the return of security to the public debate, after several miscellaneous events, including a gunshot after an urban rodeo and one death and one serious injury during a refusal to comply in Vénissieux (Rhône ) . Occupying all the media space during the summer - as Nicolas Sarkozy did in 2002 - after his reappointment, the Minister of the Interior, Gérald Darmanin, will present a security bill in the fall. The government could convince Les Républicains with its orientation and programming bill from the Ministry of the Interior (Lopmi). The text should make it possible to grant an additional 15 billion euros in budget over five years and will be examined in October in Parliament. The minister of the Interior, Gérald Darmanin, on the other hand, was summoned by the Elysée and Matignon to postpone his bill on immigration. It is scheduled for December, after the organization of a "big debate" in Parliament, as announced by the Minister in early August.

The 2023 Budget

The finance bill for 2023 promises to be perilous for the executive, who only has the word "compromise" in his mouth.

Despite its promises to change the method, the government is already anticipating a forced passage, with possible recourse to article 49.3, to have the 2023 finance bill adopted, for lack of an absolute majority for the macronists in the Assembly. Traditionally, the oppositions vote against to express their disagreement with government policy.

Explosive reforms

The autumn should also mark the real kick-off for the reforms supposed to make it possible to achieve the two main economic policy objectives promised by the Head of State for 2027: full employment and a public deficit reduced to less than 3% of gross domestic product (GDP)? “We can move towards full employment, but we must continue to carry out the essential reforms”, he recalled in his interview on July 14.

Among these, the reform of unemployment insurance, intended both to make budgetary savings and to encourage a return to work, plans to modulate the allowances of the persons concerned according to the health of the economy. . A principle that promises to crystallize tensions, both on the side of the opposition and the unions. Conditioning of the RSA to 15 or 20 hours of weekly activity, already tested in Dijon and Alsace, is also planned.

The other is pensions. The proposal made by Emmanuel Macron during the presidential campaign plans to postpone the legal retirement age to 65, with a system of long and arduous careers. The Minister of Labour, Olivier Dussopt, nevertheless promised to consult the unions just after the first meeting of the National Council for Refoundation.

A perilous return therefore for the government and for Emmanuel Macron who has every interest in taking care of his return to carry out his reforms. Especially since according to the latest Ifop survey published by the Journal du Dimanche, the popularity rating of the President of the Republic is currently only 37%, while that of Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne is now higher (41% ). In an attempt to breathe new life into politics and embody a change of method, Emmanuel Macron will therefore launch the National Council for Refoundation (CNR) on September 8, which will bring together "the political, economic, social, associative forces of elected representatives of the territories and citizens drawn by lot", according to the Head of State.

But the CGT is already planning an interprofessional strike day focused on purchasing power, wages and pension reform, on September 29.