TWO BILLION EUROS FOR SUDAN

FREAKING A SERIOUS HUMANITARIAN CRISIS

“In total, we can announce that more than 2 billion euros will be mobilized,” declared French President Emmanuel Macron. He said that before Monday's meeting, only 190 million pledges had been recorded.

Of the 2 billion, the member countries of the European Union will contribute 900 million euros, including 110 million by France. Switzerland has made 19 million francs available for Sudan for 2024.

The conference ended with a joint declaration calling on “all foreign actors” to stop providing armed support to the belligerents in Sudan.

A bloody civil war

It has been a year since Sudan has been gripped by a bloody civil war between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary group. The fighting has caused tens of thousands of casualties and some six million people have been displaced, the majority of them within the country. Sudan has thus become one of the largest humanitarian crises in the world. A year after the start of the war, one in two Sudanese needs humanitarian aid.

Deadly clashes broke out on Saturday April 15, 2023 in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary militia led by General Hemetti.

“For Eid, our country bleeds: destruction, desolation and the sound of bullets have taken precedence over joy,” General Burhane declared to the 45 million Sudanese.

This violence is not a surprise. It is the culmination of several months of tension between the two groups and especially their two leaders. At the origin of this situation, a power struggle between the two most powerful generals in Sudan. On one side, the head of the army, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who de facto rules the country. On the other, his number two, General Mohamed Hamdane Daglo, nicknamed “Hemetti”, at the head of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF, in English), a powerful paramilitary force.

To understand this rivalry, we have to go back to April 11, 2019. That day, the dictator Omar al-Bashir was overthrown by a military coup. Al Burhan and his junta take power. Hemetti is number two in the regime. Sudan is moving towards a transfer of power to civilians, but in October 2021, the military staged another putsch. Al Burhan and Hemetti are maneuvering to defeat the democratic transition.

How did we get here ?

In October 2021, the two generals therefore united to oust the civilians with whom they had shared power since the fall of dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019.

“A marriage of convenience” for the putsch, explains researcher Hamid Khalafallah. “They never had a sincere partnership but shared interests vis-à-vis civilians.”

And the breaches in the sacred union quickly came to light: The head of the Rapid Support Forces (FSR), Hemedti, has several times denounced the “failure” of a putsch which reinstated “the old regime” of Bashir, according to him. Then the conflict intensified when it was necessary to sign the conditions for integrating his men into the regular troops, as part of the agreement with the civilians which was to relaunch the democratic transition.

For experts, this agreement opened Pandora's box: by letting the military negotiate among themselves, "Hemedti went from being second to Burhan's equal," says Kholood Khair, who founded the Confluence research center. Advisory in Khartoum. Feeling "more autonomous in the face of the army", Hemedti saw an opportunity to realize "his very great political ambitions", adds Alan Boswell, in charge of the Horn of Africa at the International Crisis Group.

The thorny question remained to be resolved: how to integrate Hemetti's Rapid Support Forces into the regular army. And then who will control the soldiers? Who to control weapons?

Another bone of contention, the presence since the reign of Omar el-Bashir of numerous Islamist officers in the Sudanese army, whom General Hemedti wanted to purge. Since the coup d'état of October 2021, the Islamist movement, which already benefited from significant support within the army, has strengthened with the blessing of General al-Burhan. This was one of the main points of tension with General Hemedti.

The two generals have opposing positions.

The army wanted very rapid integration, within one or two years. General Al-Burhan, supported by Egypt, and under pressure from certain Islamist executives in the army, made the signing of the agreement conditional on the integration of the RSF into the ranks of the army, under his command.

The RSF wanted to maintain autonomy for up to ten years. Hemetti categorically refused to let his rival command his men and agreed to place his forces only under the authority of a civilian head of state, and on condition that the army was purged of its Islamist elements. This security reform, a central issue in the transfer of power to civilians, has therefore ignited the powder.

Ancient rivalry of economic power

But the rivalry between the two men is older. For years, General Hemetti's Rapid Support Forces have continued to grow in strength. Made up of 80 to 120,000 men, well equipped, well trained, this force in the form of a free electron, which did not respond to central power, aroused discontent in the general staff of the regular army. With the sending of mercenaries to Yemen and the financial windfall from gold smuggling on behalf of the United Arab Emirates, Hemetti also became one of the richest and most powerful men in the country.

The rivalry between Al-Burhan and Hemetti is also personal. The two officers know each other well, they both operated in Darfur during the civil war in the 2000s and then during the Yemen war. And they have been competing for several years to reclaim a number of resource networks since the 2019 revolution.

All this only made things worse over the months. With an acceleration during political negotiations. Each camp recruited massively, particularly among the youth of Darfur, the large western region. And clashes could break out.

A year after the start of the war, one in two Sudanese needs humanitarian aid. Sudan has thus become one of the largest humanitarian crises in the world.