NEITHER WAR NOR PEACE

SOMALILAND OR THE RESURGENCE

"OF A FROZEN CONFLICT"

And since Monday 01/01/2024, the Somaliland conflict has resurfaced:

Ethiopia regains access to the Red Sea after an agreement with Somaliland to the detriment of Somalia which considers its sovereignty violated.

The self-proclaimed Republic of Somaliland has just authorized Addis Ababa to use the port of Barbera for 50 years. Much to the dismay of Mogadishu. Somaliland, a semi-desert territory of 175,000 square kilometers whose independence (in 1991) has never been recognized by the international community, has just granted Ethiopia access to the Gulf of Aden.

The two signatories against Somalia

On the one hand, Somaliland aims to make the port of Berbera a regional maritime platform on the African shore of the Red Sea. This port is located on one of the busiest trade routes in the world, leading in particular to the Suez Canal. Additionally, Ethiopia will formally recognize the Republic of Somaliland.

On the other hand, Ethiopia, the second most populous country in Africa with 120 million inhabitants, benefited from access to an Eritrean port until the two countries went to war in 1998-2000 and she found herself without proper access to the outcome of this long conflict.

Since then, the Ethiopians have channeled most of their trade through Djibouti. But still in search of another maritime access, Ethiopia acquired 19% of the port of Berbera in 2018, as part of an agreement that has since fallen into disuse.

The agreement "will pave the way for realizing Ethiopia's aspiration to secure its access to the sea and diversify its access to seaports", according to the office of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. In addition, Addis Ababa will lease a military base on the Red Sea.

The agreement was greatly displeased in Somalia. The Mogadishu regime recalled its ambassador and denounced "a flagrant violation of its sovereignty and unity". The Somali authorities condemned this text as "illegal", denouncing an "Ethiopian aggression".

The Shebab Islamists, a group affiliated with al-Qaeda at war since 2007 against the federal government, also condemned the agreement.

Ethiopia has assured that the maritime agreement it signed with the separatist region of Somaliland does not transgress "any law", in response to the anger aroused in Somalia by this text deemed "illegal" against which residents of the capital demonstrated on Wednesday.

This “memorandum of understanding” signed on Monday has revived fears of a renewed tension between the two neighbors with historically tumultuous relations.

A region of 4.5 million people that prints its own currency, issues its passports and elects its government, Somaliland has been seeking international recognition since it proclaimed its independence in 1991, as Somalia plunged into chaos. from which she still has not emerged.

Concern for regional stability

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad) - an East African organization of which Ethiopia and Somalia are members - expressed its "deep concern", saying it was "aware of the potential implications for regional stability".

What characterizes these “frozen conflicts” – a term that appeared in the early 1990s to define separatist rebellions and frozen conflicts in the post-Soviet area – is not only the duration of the conflict, but also the end or at least the relative weakness of direct armed clashes between the parties. A conflict which does not cease, however, since no peace treaty or political agreement has been found. At any time, clashes could resume.

Populations between war and peace

“Frozen conflicts”, because they can restart at any moment, are sources of numerous difficulties for the populations concerned who thus live neither in peace nor in war. Generally speaking, there are no more, or few, victims, but the economic situation in these territories is often catastrophic.

The Cypriot conflict has lasted for fifty years, as has that of Western Sahara. And the list of regions and countries where wars continue grows over time. Kashmir, South Ossetia, Transnistria, Crimea, Donbass, Somaliland. Faced with these conflicts, the international community seems to be struggling.

For all parties to the conflict, the cost of resuming hostilities may be greater than maintaining the status quo, understood then as a necessary evil.

Ultimately, a “frozen conflict” never truly is. “The best analogy would be a frozen river, seemingly immobile. But under the layer of ice, the current remains as strong as ever,” reported Brian Fall, a former British diplomat in Le Monde.

And faced with the media and political silence which surrounds these areas of tension, it is very often the resurgence of clashes which reminds us that the situation was, in fact, in no way resolved.