COUP IN NIGER FRANCE OUTSIDE THE SAHEL

WHICH FALLS INTO THE HAND OF THE JIHADISTS

"Perfectly illegitimate": Emmanuel Macron condemned Friday from Papua New Guinea "with the greatest firmness the military coup" in progress in Niger, "dangerous" for the region, and called "for the liberation" of President Mohamed Bazoum.

"This coup d'etat is perfectly illegitimate and deeply dangerous for Nigeriens, for Niger, and for the whole region", noted the French president during a press conference. "This is why we call for the release of President Bazoum and the restoration of constitutional order," he added.

Supported by part of the population

Niger, a poor country with a history of coups, was one of France's last allies in the Sahel, a region plagued by instability, precariousness and jihadist attacks. The coup in Niamey is the third in this area since 2020, after the arrival of soldiers in power in Mali and Burkina Faso. And the French military presence seems more suspended than ever in the region. It is estimated that there are around 1,500 to 2,000 French soldiers in the country.

This Sunday, July 30, 2023, the internal crisis in Niger took another turn with a demonstration during which the French embassy in Niamey was degraded. An anti-French feeling is therefore rising in this former colony left by France in 1960.

If the military authorities in Niamey follow in the footsteps of their neighbours, an urgent request could soon be addressed to France, demanding its withdrawal from the scene. Indeed, from Thursday July 27, these putschists publicly questioned France, accusing it of having violated the closing of the borders by authorizing the landing of a military plane at the international airport of Niamey.

A few minutes earlier, the putschists had called "the population to calm" after incidents during a demonstration in Niamey organized to support them, during which Russian flags flew and anti-French slogans were chanted

France outside the Sahel...

In the short and medium term, France could therefore completely disappear from the landscape in the Sahel, thus signing the end of what has been called Françafrique in this part of the continent.

The situation in Niger seems like deja vu. After Mali and Burkina Faso, Niger, also affected by attacks linked to the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda, is the third country in the Sahel to suffer a coup since 2020. 

France also had military presences in these two countries. In August 2022, the French army left the Malian base in Gao, ending Operation Barkhane, the successor to Operation Serval launched in 2013. 

It was also at this time that the army s fell back to Niger. In January 2023, the Saber Force, the military special forces in place for 15 years in Ouagadougou, also withdrew from Burkina Faso. French military personnel in the Sahel have therefore shrunk in one year, dropping from approximately 4,500 to 2,500, including 1,500 in Niger and 1,000 in Chad.

Important anti-jihadist device

However, with 1,500 soldiers on the spot, Niger has so far been the pivot of the French anti-jihadist system in the Sahel, since the forced departure of the French soldiers from Mali in the summer of 2022.

French soldiers work regularly with the Nigerien army in the context of special operations. The latest (communicated by the Ministry of the Armed Forces), was held in May 2023. An airborne operation to take control of a building near the Malian border, in the so-called "three borders" area, crucial and dangerous in the fight against jihadism.

There is no fallback in the region. From Mauritania to Sudan, the jihadists have succeeded in scaring away all Westerners.

Moreover, before this coup, the trend was already to reduce the number of French soldiers in the Sahel and in this part of Africa. It was Emmanuel Macron's wish to withdraw troops from Gabon, Senegal or even Côte d'Ivoire. Recent events in Niger could further accelerate this trend. In addition to security interests, France also has economic interests.

Economic interests too

Economically, Niger has a relatively limited presence of French companies, with the notable exception of Orano (formerly Areva). This mining group, owned by the French state, employs nearly 900 workers in the country, mostly local nationals.

Niger has wealth in uranium, and it is precisely on these lands that Orano's activity has been established over the years.
For nearly half a century, Orano has been operating two leading mining sites in Niger, namely Somaïr, operational since 1971 (Aïr Mines Company), and Cominak, beginning its activity in 1978 (Compagnie Minière of Akuta). 

However, Cominak had to close its doors on March 31, 2021, following the depletion of its uranium resources. Nevertheless, Orano has undertaken an ambitious redevelopment project for the latter, thus remaining involved in this transition.

During the period extending from 2005 to 2020, Niger occupied the rank of third supplier of uranium to France, contributing 19% of its supplies in this material, thus placing itself behind Kazakhstan and the United States. Australia, according to data from the Euratom Technical Committee.

In addition, Orano has been carrying out a large-scale project in the country for several years: the operation of the Imouraren site.

This large-scale project is based on meticulous studies and promises uranium reserves estimated at 174,000 tons, allowing a lifespan of this mining site of approximately 43 years.

Faced with the latest events of this weekend, France threatened on Sunday to respond "immediately and intractably" to any attack against its nationals and its interests in Niger, after the rally where thousands of demonstrators in favor of the military putsch targeted its embassy in Niamey.

President Emmanuel Macron has warned that he "will not tolerate any attack against France and its interests".

"It will be up to the putschists to say who is behind them and who supports them," said Catherine Colonna, questioned about the presence of Russian flags in the demonstration.